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Caribou are an integral component of high-latitude ecosystems and represent a major subsistence food source for many northern people. The availability and quality of winter habitat is critical to sustain these caribou populations. Caribou commonly use older spruce woodlands with adequate terrestrial lichen, a preferred winter forage, in the understory. Changes in climate and fire regime pose a significant threat to the long-term sustainability of this important winter habitat. Computer simulations performed with a spatially explicit vegetation succession model (ALFRESCO) indicate that changes in the frequency and extent of fire in interior Alaska may substantially impact the abundance and quality of winter habitat for caribou. We modeled four different fire scenarios and tracked the frequency, extent, and spatial distribution of the simulated fires and associated changes to vegetation composition and distribution. Our results suggest that shorter fire frequencies (i.e., less time between recurring fires) on the winter range of the Nelchina caribou herd in eastern interior Alaska will result in large decreases of available winter habitat, relative to that currently available, in both the short and long term. A 30% shortening of the fire frequency resulted in a 3.5-fold increase in the area burned annually and an associated 41% decrease in the amount of spruce-lichen forest found on the landscape. More importantly, simulations with more frequent fires produced a relatively immature forest age structure, compared to that which currently exists, with few stands older than 100 years. This age structure is at the lower limits of stand age classes preferred by caribou from the Nelchina herd. Projected changes in fire regime due to climate warming and/or additional prescribed burning could substantially alter the winter habitat of caribou in interior Alaska and lead to changes in winter range use and/or population dynamics.

Much of the boreal forest in western North America and Alaska experiences frequent, stand-replacing wildfires. Secondary succession after fire initiates most forest stands and variations in fire characteristics can have strong effects on pathways of succession. Variations in surface fire severity that influence whether regenerating forests are dominated by coniferous or deciduous species can feedback to influence future fire behaviour because of differences in forest flammability. We used a landscape model of fire and forest dynamics to explore the effects of different scenarios of surface fire severity on subsequent forest succession and potential fire activity in interior Alaska. Model simulations indicated that high levels of surface fire severity leading to a prolonged phase of deciduous forest dominance caused a reduction in landscape flammability and fewer large fire events. Under low surface fire severity, larger patches of contiguous conifer forest promoted fire spread and resulted in landscapes with shorter fire return intervals compared to scenarios of high surface severity. Nevertheless, these negative feedbacks between fire severity, deciduous forest cover, and landscape flammability were unable to fully compensate for greater fire activity under scenarios of severe climate warming. Model simulations suggest that the effects of climate warming on fire activity in Alaska's boreal forests may be partially but not completely mitigated by changes in fire severity that alter landscape patterns of forest composition and subsequent fire behaviour.

Context Forecasting the expansion of forest into Alaska tundra is critical to predicting regional ecosystem services, including climate feedbacks such as carbon storage. Controls over seedling establishment govern forest development and migration potential. Ectomycorrhizal fungi (EMF), obligate symbionts of all Alaskan tree species, are particularly important to seedling establishment, yet their significance to landscape vegetation change is largely unknown. Objective We used ALFRESCO, a landscape model of wildfire and vegetation dynamics, to explore whether EMF inoculum potential influences patterns of tundra afforestation and associated flammability. Methods Using two downscaled CMIP3 general circulation models (ECHAM5 and CCCMA) and a mid-range emissions scenario (A1B) at a 1 km 2 resolution, we compared simulated tundra afforestation rates and flammability from four parameterizations of EMF effects on seedling establishment and growth from 2000 to 2100. Results Modeling predicted an 8.8–18.2 % increase in forest cover from 2000 to 2100. Simulations that explicitly represented landscape variability in EMF inoculum potential showed a reduced percent change afforestation of up to a 2.8 % due to low inoculum potential limiting seedling growth. This reduction limited fuel availability and thus, cumulative area burned. Regardless of inclusion of EMF effects in simulations, landscape flammability was lower for simulations driven by the wetter and cooler CCCMA model than the warmer and drier ECHAM5 model, while tundra afforestation was greater. Conclusions Results suggest abiotic factors are the primary driver of tree migration. Simulations including EMF effects, a biotic factor, yielded more conservative estimates of land cover change across Alaska that better-matched empirical estimates from the previous century.

Interactions between vegetation and fire have the potential to overshadow direct effects of climate change on fire regimes in boreal forests of North America. We develop methods to compare sediment-charcoal records with fire regimes simulated by an ecological model, ALFRESCO (Alaskan Frame-based Ecosystem Code) and apply these methods to evaluate potential causes of a mid-Holocene fire-regime shift in boreal forests of the south-central Brooks Range, Alaska, USA. Fire-return intervals (FRIs, number of years between fires) are estimated over the past 7000 calibrated ¹⁴C years (7-0 kyr BP [before present]) from short-term variations in charcoal accumulation rates (CHARs) at three lakes, and an index of area burned is inferred from long-term CHARs at these sites. ALFRESCO simulations of FRIs and annual area burned are based on prescribed vegetation and climate for 7-5 kyr BP and 5-0 kyr BP, inferred from pollen and stomata records and qualitative paleoclimate proxies. Two sets of experiments examine potential causes of increased burning between 7-5 and 5-0 kyr BP. (1) Static-vegetation scenarios: white spruce dominates with static mean temperature and total precipitation of the growing season for 7-0 kyr BP or with decreased temperature and/or increased precipitation for 5-0 kyr BP. (2) Changed-vegetation scenarios: black spruce dominates 5-0 kyr BP, with static temperature and precipitation or decreased temperature and/or increased precipitation. Median FRIs decreased between 7-5 and 5-0 kyr BP in empirical data and changed-vegetation scenarios but remained relatively constant in static-vegetation scenarios. Median empirical and simulated FRIs are not statistically different for 7-5 kyr BP and for two changed-vegetation scenarios (temperature decrease, precipitation increase) for 5-0 kyr BP. In these scenarios, cooler temperatures or increased precipitation dampened the effect of increased landscape flammability resulting from the increase in black spruce. CHAR records and all changed-vegetation scenarios indicate long-term increases in area burned between 7-5 and 5-0 kyr BP. The similarity of CHAR and ALFRESCO results demonstrates the compatibility of these independent data sets for investigating ecological mechanisms causing past fire-regime changes. The finding that vegetation flammability was a major driver of Holocene fire regimes is consistent with other investigations that suggest that landscape fuel characteristics will mediate the direct effects of future climate change on boreal fire regimes.

Wildfire is the primary ecological driver of succession in the boreal forest and may become increasingly important within tundra ecosystems as the Arctic warms. Migratory barren-ground caribou ( Rangifer tarandus granti ) rely heavily on terricolous lichens to sustain them through the winter months. Lichens preferred by caribou can take 50 or more years to recover after being consumed by wildfires. We simulated effects of climate change on the fire regime within the winter range of one of the largest caribou herds in the world, the Western Arctic Herd, to assess how their forage may be impacted. We forecast that the total area burned (AB) in the near term (2008-2053) will be 0-30% greater than during our historic reference period (1950-2007) depending on the climate model (CGCM3.1 or ECHAM5) considered. Further into the future (i.e., 2054-2099), we forecast AB to increase 25-53% more than during our reference period. In contrast to the entire study area, which contains both tundra and boreal forest habitats, we forecast that the amount of AB in tundra alone will increase (0-61%) in the near term. Simulated high-quality caribou winter range, as indexed by tundra and spruce habitat that had not burned in ≥50 years, decreased modestly (<6%) in the near term over the entire study area. Simulated changes were more dramatic within the herd's core winter range, with declines in high-quality caribou winter range approaching 30%. Conversely, moose habitat was projected to increase by 19-64% within the core winter range in the near term. The simulated declines in the quantity of core winter range in the future due to larger and more frequent fires could impact caribou abundance through decreased nutritional performance and/or apparent competition with moose. These impacts would likely be detrimental to the subsistence users that rely on this resource. Additionally, changes in the fire regime and decreases in caribou abundance could amplify feedback mechanisms, such as decreasing albedo, by facilitating shrub growth that may hasten climate-driven changes to the composition and structure of vegetation communities in the low Arctic.