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"ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS"
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Comparative LCA of Alternative Scenarios for Waste Treatment: The Case of Food Waste Production by the Mass-Retail Sector
by
Salomone, Roberta
,
Sparacia, Sergio
,
Ioppolo, Giuseppe
in
Alternative energy
,
anaerobic digestion
,
biotransformation
2017
Food waste is one of the most important issues taken into account by the European Union due to its negative environmental, economic and social impacts. The treatment of food waste through recycling processes represents a solution for food waste minimisation. Concerning, in particular, the retail sector, it is necessary to define strategies for retail-oriented sustainable food waste management. The aim of this study is to compare the potential environmental impacts related to five scenarios (landfill, incineration, composting, anaerobic digestion and bioconversion through insects) for the disposal/treatment of food waste produced by a mass retail company operating in Messina (Italy) through the application of the Life Cycle Assessment method, in order to find the best treatment solution. Results based on the treatment of a functional unit of 1 tonne of food waste show that the bioconversion scenario represents the most preferable solution considering all of the impact categories analysed through the CML 2 baseline 2000 method, except for Global Warming, for which higher environmental performances are connected to the anaerobic digestion scenario. The incineration and the bioconversion scenarios show the highest environmental benefits when the production of alternative energy sources and valuable materials is evaluated through the inclusion of the avoided productions in the analysis.
Journal Article
Sustainability Assessment of Municipal Solid Waste in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, in the Framework of Circular Economy Transition
2022
Life cycle assessment (LCA) tools can be used for the environmental assessment of municipal solid waste management (MSWM) systems. The present study aims to evaluate the impact of an MSWM system in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, under three different scenarios based on the Strategy for 2045 of Riyadh. The current scenario (S0) considers that municipal solid waste (MSW) is landfilled, scenario one (S1) considers waste to energy (WtE) as the main treatment while dry recyclables and organic waste collection schemes are introduced, and scenario two (S2) considers dry recyclables and organic waste collection schemes at the maximum level while the residual portion is treated as WtE. The system boundaries include MSW treatment and disposal by recycling, incineration, composting, and landfilling methods. The scenarios were compared using SimaPro 9.1.1.1 software, and the ReCiPe 2016 Midpoint (H) V1.04/World (2010) H method was used to assess global warming, ozone formation (human health), fine particulate matter formation, terrestrial acidification, freshwater eutrophication, mineral resource scarcity, and fossil resource scarcity. S0 was found to be the scenario with the least impact if considering just the waste treatment. However, S1 and S2 allow material and energy recovery that avoids the impact of obtaining primary resources. S1 and S2 reduced greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions by 55% and 58%, respectively, compared to S0. According to the SV2030, 2% of the electricity generated by the Kingdom would have to come from WtE, but based on the calculations, the maximum electricity from waste would be obtained with S1 fully implemented and would contribute a maximum of 1.51% to Saudi Arabia’s electricity demand. This study contributes by providing useful insights that could help decision-makers to understand the potential environmental impacts by assessing each step considered by the Strategy for 2045 for Riyadh along with the consequences on material and energy supply by using the material and energy potential of MSW.
Journal Article
A Dynamic Model for Vulnerability Assessment of Regional Water Resources in Arid Areas: A Case Study of Bayingolin, China
2013
Water scarcity is a common problem in many countries, especially those located in arid zones. The vulnerability of water resources due to climate change is an imperative research focus in the field of water resources management. In this study, a System Dynamics (SD) model was developed to simulate the water supply-and-demand process in Bayingolin, a prefecture in China, and to evaluate water resources vulnerability currently as well as in the future. The model was calibrated and validated using historical data. Three alternative scenarios were designed by changing parameters to test the vulnerability of water resources: i) increase the Wastewater Treatment Rate by 50 %; ii) decrease the Irrigation Water Demand per Hectare by 20 %; iii) increase Total Water Supply by 5 %. Results show that the baseline vulnerability of study region is high. The agricultural irrigation is the largest water use, and the water demand structure will change in future. Decreasing the irrigation water demand is the most suitable intervention to relatively reduce the vulnerability. Results also demonstrated that SD is a suitable method to explore management options for a complex water supply and demand system.
Journal Article
Renewable Energy Transition Task Solution for the Oil Countries Using Scenario-Driven Fuzzy Multiple-Criteria Decision-Making Models: The Case of Azerbaijan
by
Mammadov, Jeyhun
,
Nuriyev, Mahammad
,
Nuriyev, Aziz
in
Alternative energy sources
,
alternative-scenario
,
Decision making
2023
The renewable energy transition of oil- and gas-producing countries has specific peculiarities due to the ambivalent position of these countries in the global energy market, both as producers and consumers of energy resources. This task becomes even more challenging when the share of oil and gas in the country’s GDP is very high. These circumstances pose serious challenges for long-term energy policy development and require compromising decisions to better align the existing and newly created energy policies of the country. The scale, scope, and pace of changes in the transition process must be well balanced, considering the increasing pressure of economic and environmental factors. The objective of this paper is to develop models that allow the selection of the most appropriate scenario for renewable energy transition in an oil- and gas-producing country. The distinguishing feature of the proposed model is that alternatives in the decision matrix are presented as scenarios, composed of a set of energy resources and the level of their use. Linguistic descriptions of the alternative scenarios are formalized in the form of fuzzy statements. For the problem solution, four different Multiple-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) methods were used: the fuzzy simple additive weighting (F-SAW) method, the distance-based fuzzy TOPSIS method (Technique of Order Preference Similarity to the Ideal Solution), the ratio-analysis-based fuzzy MOORA method (Multi-Objective Optimization Model Based on the Ratio Analysis), and the fuzzy multi-criteria optimization and compromise solution method VIKOR (Serbian: VIekriterijumsko Kompromisno Rangiranje). This approach is illustrated using the example of the energy sector of Azerbaijan. The recommended solution for the country involves increasing natural gas (NG) moderately, maintaining hydro, and increasing solar notably and wind moderately.
Journal Article
Advancing Sustainable Groundwater Management With a Hydro‐Economic System Model: Investigations in the Harney Basin, Oregon
by
Jaeger, W. K.
,
Antle, J.
,
Bigelow, D.
in
Aggregates
,
Agricultural production
,
alternative scenario simulations
2024
Groundwater resources frequently trend toward unsustainable levels because, absent effective institutions, individual water users generally act independently without considering the impacts on other users. Hydro‐economic models (HEMs) of human‐natural systems can play a positive role toward successful groundwater management by yielding valuable knowledge and insight. The current study explores how an HEM that captures essential physical and economic characteristics of a system can shed light on the system's processes and dynamics to benefit stakeholders, managers, and also researchers. These propositions are illustrated using the Harney Basin, Oregon, which has seen large groundwater declines in the past 20 years. The HEM shows that: (a) although current groundwater pumping rates will gradually raise costs and reduce well yields, irrigators gain the highest aggregate economic return by continuing current pumping; (b) lowland areas of the basin are hydrologically connected, which limits the efficacy of remedies focused on regulations only in some portions of the basin; (c) community expectations regarding the efficacy of several proposed solutions are overly optimistic; and (d) the study's scenarios identify interventions that would stabilize the groundwater system and prevent additional adverse impacts on residential and livestock wells and groundwater‐dependent ecosystems. These interventions would require limiting groundwater pumping by nearly half and reducing annual profits by$7.5–$ 9.0M. The HEM also demonstrated its value to researchers: its insights shifted attention toward questions about Oregon's existing groundwater institutions and their inability to adaptively manage the transition from abundant groundwater to scarce groundwater in a timely manner. Plain Language Summary This study develops a hydro‐economic model (HEM) linking an economic model of irrigated agricultural production with a three‐dimensional groundwater hydrology model of the Harney Basin, Oregon, to better understand the causes and possible solutions to the large groundwater declines in the past 20 years. Those declines have had adverse impacts on the farmers who irrigate with groundwater, but also on residential wells and environmental flows supplying groundwater‐dependent ecosystems. The HEM simulates 30‐year future scenarios for a baseline and alternative scenarios representing interventions aimed at stabilizing the groundwater system. Results reveal that although current groundwater pumping rates will gradually raise costs and reduce well yields, irrigators gain the highest aggregate economic return by continuing current pumping rates. The analysis shows that sustainable pumping rates were surpassed 20 years before declining groundwater levels were generally recognized. Results show that because the basin is hydrologically connected, the efficacy of regulations focused only in some portions of the basin are limited; and community expectations regarding benefits from several proposed solutions are found to be overly optimistic. A number of interventions are identified that would stabilize the groundwater system; however, these interventions would require lowering pumping by nearly half and reducing annual profits by$7.5–$ 9.0M. Key Points A hydro‐economic groundwater model (HEM) of the Harney Basin shows that HEMs can improve understanding and advance successful management Modeled scenarios reveal, for example, that proposed technology or spatially‐targeted solutions do little to stabilize groundwater levels HEM studies can alter the way researchers understand a system, bringing focus toward key factors or even changing the key research question
Journal Article
A conceptual model to assess the impact of anthropogenic drivers on water-related ecosystem services in the Brazilian Cerrado
by
Resende, Fernando de Moura
,
Jimenez, Yohana Gisell
,
Selva, Gracie Verde
in
BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION
2020
The development of strategies that conciliate anthropogenic activities with nature conservation is becoming increasingly urgent, particularly in regions facing rapid conversion of native vegetation to agriculture. Conceptual modelling enables assessment of how anthropogenic drivers (e.g. land use/land cover change and climate change) modify natural processes, being a useful tool to support strategic decision-making. The present work describes a conceptual model to evaluate water-related ecosystem service provision under different land use scenarios in the Matopiba region of the Brazilian Cerrado, the world’s most biodiverse savanna and an agricultural frontier. Model variables were determined (direct drivers, indirect drivers, focal components and responses) and the Nature Futures Framework was consulted to incorporate socio-ecological components and feedbacks. Future scenarios were developed considering potential trajectories of drivers and governance responses that may impact land use in the region, including the possibility of full compliance with Forest Code and implementation of the Soy Moratorium in the region. The conceptual model and scenarios developed in the present study may be useful to improve understanding of the complex interactions among anthropogenic drivers, water-related ecosystem services and their potential repercussions for natural and social systems of the region. Governance decisions will be critical to maintaining the ecosystems of the region, the services it provides and the culture and tradition of the people historically embedded in the landscape. In acknowledgment of humanity’s dependence on nature, the importance of inverting the way scenarios are used is highlighted. Rather than using scenarios to measure the impacts of different policy options on nature, scenarios representing the desired outcomes for biodiversity and ecosystem services can be used to inform how policies can guarantee ecosystem integrity into the future. Resumo: O desenvolvimento de estratégias que conciliem atividades antropogênicas com a conservação da natureza tem se tornado cada vez mais urgente, principalmente em regiões que enfrentam uma rápida conversão da vegetação nativa em agricultura. Modelos conceituais permitem avaliar como fatores antropogênicos (por exemplo, mudança de uso e cobertura do solo e mudanças climáticas) modificam os processos naturais, sendo uma ferramenta útil para apoiar a tomada de decisões estratégicas. O presente trabalho descreve um modelo conceitual para avaliar a provisão de serviços ecossistêmicos relacionados à água sob diferentes cenários de uso do solo na região de Matopiba, no Cerrado, a savana com maior biodiversidade do mundo e uma fronteira agrícola. Foram determinadas as variáveis do modelo (fatores diretos, fatores indiretos, componentes focais e respostas) e o Nature Futures Framework foi consultado para incorporar componentes socioeconômicos e feedbacks. Cenários futuros foram desenvolvidos considerando possíveis trajetórias de fatores antropogênicos e respostas de governança que podem impactar o uso do solo na região, incluindo a possibilidade de cumprimento total do Código Florestal e a implementação da Moratória da Soja na região. O modelo conceitual e os cenários apresentados no presente trabalho podem ser úteis para melhorar a compreensão das complexas interações entre fatores antropogênicos, serviços ecossistêmicos relacionados à água e suas possíveis implicações para os sistemas naturais e sociais da região. Decisões de governança serão críticas para manter os ecossistemas da região, os serviços fornecidos por eles, a cultura e tradição das pessoas historicamente inseridas na paisagem. Em reconhecimento da dependência da humanidade em relação à natureza, destaca-se a importância de inverter a maneira como os cenários são usualmente usados. Em vez de mensurar os impactos de diferentes políticas na natureza, cenários representando os resultados desejados para biodiversidade e serviços ecossistêmicos podem ser usados para informar como políticas podem garantir a integridade dos ecossistemas no futuro.
Journal Article
Explaining the Differences between the Environmental Impacts of 44 French Artisanal Cheeses
by
Dijoux, Laure
,
Pénicaud, Caroline
,
Cortesi, Adeline
in
Acidification
,
Cheese
,
Data collection
2022
Cheese production causes significant environmental impacts, which have to be reduced. In France, a lot of different cheeses are available, made from different milks but also from different cheese technologies. The goal of this study was to understand the origin of the environmental impact variation between cheeses made from different technologies and milks and produced using different ripening practices. To do so, the environmental impacts of 44 different types of French artisanal cheese, all produced under protected designation of origin (PDO) labels, were assessed using the life cycle assessment. Cheese technologies were fully described and two ripening scenarios were investigated. Results show that the differences of environmental impacts between cheeses mainly come from: the milk type (cow, goat, or sheep), the milk amount needed to produce one kilogram of cheese, the energetic performance of the ripening room, and the ripening time. Such results could be useful to cheesemakers to identify the origin of the environmental impacts of their products and to implement effective actions to reduce them. According to the results, innovations leading to the reduction in electrical consumption during ripening are interesting to explore in order to increase the environmental performance of a cheese.
Journal Article
Biochar systems for smallholders in developing countries
2014
Biochar is the carbon-rich organic matter that remains after heating biomass under the minimization of oxygen during a process called pyrolysis. There are a number of reasons why biochar systems may be particularly relevant in developing-country contexts. This report offers a review of what is known about opportunities and risks of biochar systems. Its aim is to provide a state-of-the-art overview of current knowledge regarding biochar science. In that sense the report also offers a reconciling view on different scientific opinions about biochar providing an overall account that shows the various perspectives of its science and application. This includes soil and agricultural impacts of biochar, climate change impacts, social impacts, and competing uses of biomass. The report aims to contextualize the current scientific knowledge in order to put it at use to address the development climate change nexus, including social and environmental sustainability. The report is organized as follows: chapter one offers some introductory comments and notes the increasing interest in biochar both from a scientific and practitioner's point of view; chapter two gives further background on biochar, describing its characteristics and outlining the way in which biochar systems function. Chapter three considers the opportunities and risks of biochar systems. Based on the results of the surveys undertaken, chapter four presents a typology of biochar systems emerging in practice, particularly in the developing world. Life-cycle assessments of the net climate change impact and the net economic profitability of three biochar systems with data collected from relatively advanced biochar projects were conducted and are presented in chapter five. Chapter six investigates various aspects of technology adoption, including barriers to implementing promising systems, focusing on economics, carbon market access, and sociocultural barriers. Finally, the status of knowledge regarding biochar systems is interpreted in chapter seven to determine potential implications for future involvement in biochar research, policy, and project formulation.
Dynamic interaction of urban development and rural–urban migration: an application of integrated urban metabolism analysis tool (IUMAT) for sustainable city planning
2022
Purpose>This study aims to gauge the effect of rural–urban migration and its challenges on the urban development of Bengaluru. This study examines the driving forces behind urbanization and its impact on social, economic and environment areas. The research helps to establish the sustainable city planning, after evaluation of specific challenges of zones, and this mitigation will optimize government investment and reduce cost.Design/methodology/approach>Bengaluru is used as a study area to examine the interaction of migration and urban development. The study covers the period between 2011 and 2019. Panel data analysis is applied to measure the effect of urban development indicators on urban migration. The authors applied the integrated urban metabolism analysis tool to quantify the urban development indicators and identified the most critical areas for migrants. Later, authors proposed mitigation measures based on alternate scenario approach.Findings>The authors found that there is a mixed effect of urban migration on urban development across various zones in Bengaluru. Besides, the authors suggest how planned collaboration should play a significant role in urban planning and optimize city planning judiciously. Effective mitigation measures should be developed based on zone-specific core issues, and practical trainings, research, public awareness campaigns and skill up-gradation of migrants would enhance the socio-economic and environmental conditions.Research limitations/implications>The study will support the ongoing and upcoming initiatives launched by the Government of India i.e. Awas Yojna, Atmanirbhar Bharat and Swach Bharat.Practical implications>The structured city planning suggested in the study will help to save wastage of resources and cost and time of developers and policymakers. This will also help to upgrade the status of migrants and enhance the ambience of city around social, economic and environment fronts.Originality/value>The first of its kind of innovative model mapped in the study area establishes a link between strategic city planning under rural–urban migration and urban development.
Journal Article
Assessing wild bees in perennial bioenergy landscapes: effects of bioenergy crop composition, landscape configuration, and bioenergy crop area
by
Negri, M. Cristina
,
Graham, John B.
,
Ssegane, Herbert
in
09 BIOMASS FUELS
,
Abundance
,
Agricultural land
2017
Context
Wild bee populations are currently under threat, which has led to recent efforts to increase pollinator habitat in North America. Simultaneously, U.S. federal energy policies are beginning to encourage perennial bioenergy cropping (PBC) systems, which have the potential to support native bees.
Objectives
Our objective was to explore the potentially interactive effects of crop composition, total PBC area, and PBC patches in different landscape configurations.
Methods
Using a spatially-explicit modeling approach, the Lonsdorf model, we simulated the impacts of three perennial bioenergy crops (PBC: willow, switchgrass, and prairie), three scenarios with different total PBC area (11.7, 23.5 and 28.8% of agricultural land converted to PBC) and two types of landscape configurations (PBC in clustered landscape patterns that represent realistic future configurations or in dispersed neutral landscape models) on a nest abundance index in an Illinois landscape.
Results
Our modeling results suggest that crop composition and PBC area are particularly important for bee nest abundance, whereas landscape configuration is associated with bee nest abundance at the local scale but less so at the regional scale.
Conclusions
Strategies to enhance wild bee habitat should therefore emphasize the crop composition and amount of PBC.
Journal Article