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1. Predicted increases in atmospheric concentrations of CO₂ may alter the susceptibility of many plants to insect herbivores due to changes in plant nutrition and defences. Silicon plays a critical role in plant defence against herbivores, so increasing such silicon-based defences in plants may help remediate situations where plants become more susceptible to herbivores. 2. Sugar cane (Saccharum spp. hybrid) was subjected to fully factorial treatment combinations of ambient (aCO₂) or elevated (eCO₂) atmospheric CO₂ concentrations; ambient silicon or silicon supplementation; insect-free or subject to root herbivory by greyback canegrub (Dermolepida albohir tum). A glasshouse study was used to determine how these factors affected rates of photosynthesis, growth, chemistry (concentrations of silicon, carbon, nitrogen and non-structural carbohydrates). Changes in canegrub mass were determined in the glasshouse pot study, together with more detailed assessment of how eCO₂ and silicon supplementation affected performance and feeding behaviour (relative growth rate and relative consumption) in a 24-h feeding efficiency assay. 3. Elevated CO₂ and silicon supplementation increased rates of photosynthesis (+ 32% and 14%, respectively) and sugar cane biomass (+ 45% and 69%, respectively). Silicon supplementation increased silicon concentrations in both leaves and roots by 54% and 75%, respectively. eCO₂ caused root C : N to increase by 12%. 4. Canegrub performance and consumption increased under eCO₂; relative growth rate (RGR) increased by 116% and consumed 57% more root material (suggestive of compensatory feeding). Silicon application reversed these effects, with large decreases in mass change, RGR and root consumption (65% less root mass consumed). 5. Synthesis and applications. Our results suggest future atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations could lead to increased crop damage by a below-ground herbivore. Increasing bioavailable silicon in soil stimulated silicon-based defences which dramatically decreased herbivory and herbivore performance. Our findings suggest future pest management strategies could benefit from characterising deficiencies in bioavailable silicon in agricultural soils and targeted application of silicon fertilisers. Moreover, future breeding programmes should exploit variation in silicon uptake between cultivars to enhance silicon uptake in new crop varieties. Silicon-based plant defence proved to be highly beneficial for remediating the negative effects of atmospheric change on sugar cane susceptibility to herbivory and could be applicable in other crops.

Influence of long-term changes in climate and CO2 concentration on intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE), defined as the ratio between net photosynthesis (A) and leaf conductance (g), and tree growth remain not fully revealed in humid subtropical China, which is distinct from other arid subtropical areas with dense coverage of broadleaf forests. This study presented the first tree-ring stable carbon isotope (δ13C) and iWUE series of Pinus massoniana from 1865 to 2013 in Fujian province, humid subtropical China, and the first tree-ring width standard chronology during the period of 1836-2013 for the Niumulin Nature Reserve (NML). Tree-ring width growth was limited by precipitation in July-August (r = 0.40, p < 0.01). The tree-ring carbon isotope discrimination (Δ13C) was mainly controlled by the sunshine hours (r = -0.66, p < 0.001) and relative humidity (r = 0.58, p < 0.001) in September-October, a season with rapid latewood formation in this area. The iWUE increased by 42.6% and the atmospheric CO2 concentration (ca) explained 92.6% of the iWUE variance over the last 150 years. The steady increase in iWUE suggests an active response with a proportional increase in intercellular CO2 concentration (ci) in response to increase in ca. The contribution of iWUE to tree growth in the study region is not conspicuous, which points to influences of other factors such as climate.

In this study, high‐resolution CO2 concentration data were generated for East Asia to analyse long‐term changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations, as East Asia is an important region for understanding the global carbon cycle. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF‐Chem), atmospheric CO2 concentrations were simulated in East Asia at a resolution of 9 km for a period of 10 years (2009–2018). The generated CO2 concentration data include CO2 concentrations, biogenic CO2 concentrations, anthropogenic CO2 concentrations, oceanic CO2 concentrations, biospheric CO2 uptake, biospheric CO2 release and meteorological variables at 3‐h intervals. The simulated high‐resolution CO2 concentrations, biogenic CO2 concentrations and anthropogenic CO2 concentrations are stored in NetCDF‐4 (Network Common Data Form, version 4) format and are available for download at https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/PJTBF3. The simulated annual mean surface CO2 concentrations in East Asia were 391.027 ppm in 2009 and 412.949 ppm in 2018, indicating an increase of 21.922 ppm over the 10‐year period with appropriate seasonal variabilities. The monthly mean CO2 concentrations in East Asia were verified using surface CO2 observations and satellite column‐averaged CO2 mole fraction (XCO2) from Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO‐2). Based on surface CO2 observations and OCO‐2 XCO2 concentrations, the average root‐mean‐square error (RMSE) of the simulated CO2 concentrations in WRF‐Chem was 2.474 and 0.374 ppm, respectively, which is smaller than the average RMSE of the low‐resolution CarbonTracker 2019B (CT2019B) simulation. Therefore, the simulated high‐resolution atmospheric CO2 concentrations in East Asia in WRF‐Chem over 10 years are reliable data that resemble the observed values and could be highly valuable in understanding the carbon cycle in East Asia. High‐resolution atmospheric CO2 concentration data for East Asia were generated using WRF‐Chem for 2009–2018. Generated data include CO2 concentrations, biogenic and anthropogenic CO2, oceanic CO2 and meteorological variables. Verified with surface CO2 observations and OCO‐2 satellite data, the generated CO2 data exhibits smaller errors compared to low‐resolution models, offering reliable insights into East Asia's carbon cycle.

Terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) is the basis of vegetation growth and food production globally1 and plays a critical role in regulating atmospheric CO2 through its impact on ecosystem carbon balance. Even though higher CO2 concentrations in future decades can increase GPP2, low soil water availability, heat stress and disturbances associated with droughts could reduce the benefits of such CO2 fertilization. Here we analysed outputs of 13 Earth system models to show an increasingly stronger impact on GPP by extreme droughts than by mild and moderate droughts over the twenty-first century. Due to a dramatic increase in the frequency of extreme droughts, the magnitude of globally averaged reductions in GPP associated with extreme droughts was projected to be nearly tripled by the last quarter of this century (2075–2099) relative to that of the historical period (1850–1999) under both high and intermediate GHG emission scenarios. By contrast, the magnitude of GPP reductions associated with mild and moderate droughts was not projected to increase substantially. Our analysis indicates a high risk of extreme droughts to the global carbon cycle with atmospheric warming; however, this risk can be potentially mitigated by positive anomalies of GPP associated with favourable environmental conditions.

Droughts and climate-change-driven warming are leading to more frequent and intense wildfires 1 – 3 , arguably contributing to the severe 2019–2020 Australian wildfires 4 . The environmental and ecological impacts of the fires include loss of habitats and the emission of substantial amounts of atmospheric aerosols 5 – 7 . Aerosol emissions from wildfires can lead to the atmospheric transport of macronutrients and bio-essential trace metals such as nitrogen and iron, respectively 8 – 10 . It has been suggested that the oceanic deposition of wildfire aerosols can relieve nutrient limitations and, consequently, enhance marine productivity 11 , 12 , but direct observations are lacking. Here we use satellite and autonomous biogeochemical Argo float data to evaluate the effect of 2019–2020 Australian wildfire aerosol deposition on phytoplankton productivity. We find anomalously widespread phytoplankton blooms from December 2019 to March 2020 in the Southern Ocean downwind of Australia. Aerosol samples originating from the Australian wildfires contained a high iron content and atmospheric trajectories show that these aerosols were likely to be transported to the bloom regions, suggesting that the blooms resulted from the fertilization of the iron-limited waters of the Southern Ocean. Climate models project more frequent and severe wildfires in many regions 1 – 3 . A greater appreciation of the links between wildfires, pyrogenic aerosols 13 , nutrient cycling and marine photosynthesis could improve our understanding of the contemporary and glacial–interglacial cycling of atmospheric CO 2 and the global climate system. Oceanic deposition of wildfire aerosols can enhance marine productivity, as supported here by satellite and in situ profiling floats data showing that emissions from the 2019–2020 Australian wildfires fuelled phytoplankton blooms in the Southern Ocean.

Results from the fully and biogeochemically coupled simulations in which CO2 increases at a rate of 1 % yr−1 (1pctCO2) from its preindustrial value are analyzed to quantify the magnitude of carbon–concentration and carbon–climate feedback parameters which measure the response of ocean and terrestrial carbon pools to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration and the resulting change in global climate, respectively. The results are based on 11 comprehensive Earth system models from the most recent (sixth) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and compared with eight models from the fifth CMIP (CMIP5). The strength of the carbon–concentration feedback is of comparable magnitudes over land (mean ± standard deviation = 0.97 ± 0.40 PgC ppm−1) and ocean (0.79 ± 0.07 PgC ppm−1), while the carbon–climate feedback over land (−45.1 ± 50.6 PgC ∘C−1) is about 3 times larger than over ocean (−17.2 ± 5.0 PgC ∘C−1). The strength of both feedbacks is an order of magnitude more uncertain over land than over ocean as has been seen in existing studies. These values and their spread from 11 CMIP6 models have not changed significantly compared to CMIP5 models. The absolute values of feedback parameters are lower for land with models that include a representation of nitrogen cycle. The transient climate response to cumulative emissions (TCRE) from the 11 CMIP6 models considered here is 1.77 ± 0.37 ∘C EgC−1 and is similar to that found in CMIP5 models (1.63 ± 0.48 ∘C EgC−1) but with somewhat reduced model spread. The expressions for feedback parameters based on the fully and biogeochemically coupled configurations of the 1pctCO2 simulation are simplified when the small temperature change in the biogeochemically coupled simulation is ignored. Decomposition of the terms of these simplified expressions for the feedback parameters is used to gain insight into the reasons for differing responses among ocean and land carbon cycle models.

Projections of the response to anthropogenic emission scenarios, evaluation of some greenhouse gas metrics, and estimates of the social cost of carbon often require a simple model that links emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) to atmospheric concentrations and global temperature changes. An essential requirement of such a model is to reproduce typical global surface temperature and atmospheric CO2 responses displayed by more complex Earth system models (ESMs) under a range of emission scenarios, as well as an ability to sample the range of ESM response in a transparent, accessible and reproducible form. Here we adapt the simple model of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 5th Assessment Report (IPCC AR5) to explicitly represent the state dependence of the CO2 airborne fraction. Our adapted model (FAIR) reproduces the range of behaviour shown in full and intermediate complexity ESMs under several idealised carbon pulse and exponential concentration increase experiments. We find that the inclusion of a linear increase in 100-year integrated airborne fraction with cumulative carbon uptake and global temperature change substantially improves the representation of the response of the climate system to CO2 on a range of timescales and under a range of experimental designs.

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (E(FF)) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use change (E(LUC)), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (G(ATM)) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (S(OCEAN)) and terrestrial CO2 sink (S(LAND)) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (B(IM)), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2009–2018), E(FF) was 9.5±0.5 GtC/yr, E(LUC) 1.5±0.7 GtC/yr, G(ATM) 4.9±0.02 GtC/yr (2.3±0.01 ppm/yr), S(OCEAN) 2.5±0.6 GtC/yr, and S(LAND) 3.2±0.6 GtC/yr, with a budget imbalance B(IM) of 0.4 GtC/yr indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2018 alone, the growth in E(FF) was about 2.1 % and fossil emissions increased to 10.0±0.5 GtC/yr, reaching 10 GtC/yr for the first time in history, E(LUC) was 1.5±0.7 GtC/yr, for total anthropogenic CO2 emissions of 11.5±0.9 GtC/yr (42.5±3.3 GtCO2). Also for 2018, G(ATM) was 5.1±0.2 GtC/yr (2.4±0.1 ppm/yr), S(OCEAN) was 2.6±0.6 GtC/yr, and S(LAND) was 3.5±0.7 GtC/yr, with a B(IM) of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 407.38±0.1 ppm averaged over 2018. For 2019, preliminary data for the first 6–10 months indicate a reduced growth in E(FF) of +0.6 % (range of −0.2 % to 1.5 %) based on national emissions projections for China, the USA, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. Overall, the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2018, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC/yr persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among individual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations shows (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land use change emissions over the last decade, (2) a persistent low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO2 variability by ocean models outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2018a, b, 2016, 2015a, b, 2014, 2013).

This paper introduces a modification to the Penman–Monteith equation—for net evapotranspiration—to account for vegetation under elevated atmospheric CO2. In so doing it reconciles contradictions between drought indices and modelled runoff projections.

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the global carbon budget – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-cover change data and bookkeeping models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2007–2016), EFF was 9.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.7 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.6 GtC yr−1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For year 2016 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1. Also for 2016, ELUC was 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM was 6.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 2.7 ± 1.0 GtC yr−1, with a small BIM of −0.3 GtC. GATM continued to be higher in 2016 compared to the past decade (2007–2016), reflecting in part the high fossil emissions and the small SLAND consistent with El Niño conditions. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 402.8 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2016. For 2017, preliminary data for the first 6–9 months indicate a renewed growth in EFF of +2.0 % (range of 0.8 to 3.0 %) based on national emissions projections for China, USA, and India, and projections of gross domestic product (GDP) corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). All results presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2017 (GCP, 2017).