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Unequal access to university and the decision processes that give rise to it are important factors in the accumulation of educational inequalities. In this paper, we investigate a specific aspect of such decision processes by focusing on those students who change their original plans to start a (nontertiary) vocational education and decide to pursue a tertiary degree instead. In doing so, we find that more than one-fifth of the students in our sample who originally planned to pursue a vocational education change their original decision in this way. Moreover, while students from a more advantaged background are more likely to go to university in the first place, those among them that initially opted for a vocational education are also more likely to change their decision and go to university instead. We also find that parental preferences for tertiary education play an important role in the process of changing one’s mind, even for adult children. Moreover, we find that differential parental preferences contribute to both the emergence of social background effects and—as a result—the perpetuation of educational inequalities.

The aim of this article is to systematize empirical findings from the German Life History Studies, which allow a (long-term) historical perspective on changes in Germany's vocational education and training (VET) system. We consider two aspects. First, we examine access to and patterns of VET participation. Second, we discuss the impact of changes in individual educational behavior on skill formation institutions. In doing so, we contribute new insights concerning the interplay between individuals and the German VET system. Life courses not only are structured by institutions but also may 'trigger' institutional changes. We assume that the two 'trigger' groups at the boundaries of the VET system—that is, low-achieving and high-achieving youth—pose the greatest challenge to its institutional structure and are therefore useful groups to examine to learn more about the performance of the German VET system and the relation between individual educational behavior and institutional change.

PurposeThe aim of this study is to examine the characteristics of firms that influence their hiring decisions regarding the share of newly hired apprentices with Abitur and maximum lower secondary certificates.Design/methodology/approachThe study uses 2,004 training firms of the BIBB Qualification Panel data from 2013 to 2018 to estimate fixed-effects regressions analysing the effect of firms’ qualification structures and recruitment problems on the share of newly hired apprentices with Abitur (highest German secondary school-leaving certificate) and maximum lower secondary certificates (in German maximal Hauptschulabschluss).FindingsThe results indicate that firms with a higher qualification structure hire a higher share of apprentices with Abitur. However, the effect gets insignificant once controlling for the share of applicants with Abitur. Further, the study suggests that firms reduce their requirements on the school-leaving certificate of VET applicants when they suffer from unfilled training positions. Moreover, the share of applicants with Abitur and maximum lower secondary certificate has high explanatory power for the share of newly hired apprentices with these certificates.Originality/valueThe study highlights the role of firms in facilitating the transition of young people entering dual VET in Germany, whereas most studies so far have focused on the individual level. Further, the study contributes to the understanding of firms’ hiring processes of apprentices beyond the question of whether a firm provides VET at all and could be used for designing labour market policy programs for youth.

This study examines the immediate and intermediate effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the well-being of two high school graduation cohorts (2020 and 2021) and how changes in well-being affect students’ educational plans and outcomes. Our unique panel data on 3697 students from 214 schools in 8 German federal states contain prospective survey information on three dimensions of well-being: mental health problems, self-rated health, and life satisfaction. Data is collected several months before (fall 2019), shortly before and soon after (spring 2020) as well as several months after (fall/winter 2020/21) the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. Applying difference-in-differences designs, random effect growth curve models, and linear regression models, we find that school closures had a positive immediate effect on students’ well-being. Over the course of the pandemic, however, well-being strongly declined, mainly among the 2021 graduation cohort. We show that a strong decline in mental health is associated with changes in educational and career plans and transition outcomes. As adverse life experiences in adolescence are likely to accumulate over the life course, this study is the first to exhibit potential long-lasting negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on education and careers of young individuals.

We present a model with heterogeneous inputs and constant elasticity of substitution to examine the possible effects of a supply shock in the market for apprenticeship training. The model’s predictions are tested using data from a German high school reform that led to a one-time increase in the supply of highly educated apprentices. A difference-in-differences estimation strategy exploits regional variation in the timing of implementation, and an instrumental variable approach identifies the supply shock effects. We find that apprenticeship contracts among individuals with a high school degree increased by 7.8%, while apprentice wages were unaffected by the supply shock. Moreover, we find no evidence of substitution effects, as the number of training contracts among individuals with a lower-level school degree remained unchanged. Our model predicts that such effects may occur when wages are sticky for apprentices with a high level of education relative to their productivity, which signals inefficiencies in the market for apprenticeship training.

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to consider the enrolment at university and the subsequent possible dropout as a piece of the school-to-work transition and ask whether it improves or worsens the labour market outcomes a few years after graduation from the high school.Design/methodology/approachThe analysis exploits data from the upper secondary graduate survey by ISTAT on a cohort of high school graduates and investigates the effect of dropping out four years after graduation. The labour market outcomes of university dropouts are compared to the outcomes of high school graduates who never enrolled at university. A propensity score matching approach is applied. The model is also estimated on the subsamples of males and females.FindingsThe findings show that spending a period at university and leaving it before completion makes the transition to work substantially more difficult. Both the probability of being NEET and getting a bad job increase in the case of dropout, while no relevant effect is found on earnings. Moreover, the impact of university dropout tends to be more harmful the longer the spell from enrolment to dropping out. Separate estimates by gender point out that females appear to be relatively more affected in the case of dropping out without a fallback plan.Originality/valueWhile the existing studies in the literature on the school-to-work transition mostly focus on the determinants of the dropout, this paper investigates whether and how the employment outcomes are affected by dropping out in Italy. Moreover, university dropouts are compared to high school graduates with no university experience, rather than to university graduates. Finally, evidence on the mechanisms driving the effect of dropping out is provided, by considering timing and motivations for dropping out.

In Germany, the dual system of vocational education and training is an attractive alternative to tertiary programmes for school leavers with a higher education entrance certificate (HEEC). Most adolescents with this qualification opt for training occupations where the majority of apprentices hold an HEEC (e.g., bank clerk). This decision seems sensible considering that such training occupations are difficult for people with lower school‐leaving certificates to access and promise better career outcomes. Nevertheless, some adolescents with an HEEC enter occupations that are not typical of their school‐leaving qualification. This article examines under which circumstances adolescents with an HEEC aspire to training occupations atypical of their level of education and thus accept lower career outcomes. Following the rational choice paradigm, we expect differences in perceived benefit and probability of success between school leavers with an HEEC opting for HEEC occupations as opposed to non‐HEEC occupations. Using data from the 2018 DZHW Panel Study of German School Leavers With an HEEC, our logistic regression models show that the individuals’ self‐assessed strengths and their occupational goals explain why they aspire to training occupations atypical of their qualification. Contrary to our assumption, adolescents from academic families are not less likely to aspire to non‐HEEC occupations.

Purpose Decades of impact evaluation of vocational training have produced very heterogeneous findings. If heterogeneity can be ascribed to the diversity in contents and target population, it can be reduced analyzing specific subprograms. The purpose of this paper is to focus on Italian “Post Diploma” training, which consists of intensive courses for unemployed holding a high school degree. Evidence on the benefits for different types of workers is provided, distinguishing in particular between common unemployed and those who attend training as a further investment in human capital after finishing their schooling. Design/methodology/approach The evaluation is based on a non-experimental control group design. Exploiting extremely rich administrative data, impact estimates are obtained via propensity score matching. The robustness of results is checked through extensive sensitivity analysis. Findings The results suggest a positive impact on the employment probability, also in the long run. Training is particularly effective for people who attend it just after finishing high school. Cost-benefit analysis yields a positive rate return on public investment only after more than five years. Originality/value The study focuses on a limited and homogeneous segment of training in order to provide more exploitable evidence for program design purposes. Due to its specific characteristics and aims, Post Diploma training represents an example of intervention which, unlike many programs for unemployed, works better for the youngest. The conclusions stress the general need for evaluations that properly account for the cost of an intervention and its effectiveness in the long run.

Our aim is to assess how the number of working-class students entering German universities can effectively be increased. Therefore, we estimate the proportion of students from the working class that would successfully enter university if certain policy interventions were in place to eliminate primary effects (performance differentials between social classes) and/or secondary effects (choice differentials net of performance) at different transition points. We extend previous research by analysing the sequence of transitions between elementary school enrolment and university enrolment and by accounting for the impact that manipulations at earlier transitions have on the performance distribution and size of the student 'risk-set' at subsequent transitions. To this end, we develop a novel simulation procedure which seeks to find viable solutions to the shortcomings in the German data landscape. Our findings show that interventions are most effective if they take place early in the educational career. Neutralizing secondary effects at the transition to upper secondary school proves to be the single most effective means of increasing participation rates in tertiary education among working-class students. However, this comes at the expense of lower average performance levels.