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To investigate the association between recurrent AIDS-defining events and a semicompeting risk of death in patients with advanced, multidrug-resistant human immunodeficiency virus infection and to identify individuals at increased risk for these events using a joint frailty model. Three hundred sixty-eight patients with antiretroviral treatment failure in the Options in Management of Antiretrovirals Trial randomized to two antiretroviral treatment strategies using a 2 × 2 factorial design, intensive vs. standard and interruption vs. continuation, and followed for development of AIDS-defining events and death. Participants were heterogeneous for risk of AIDS-defining events and death (P < 0.001), and AIDS-defining events were strongly associated with death (P < 0.001), irrespective of treatment. The frailty model was used to classify individuals into high- and low-risk groups based on unobserved heterogeneity. Low-risk individuals were unlikely to die (0%) or have an AIDS-defining event (<4%), whereas high-risk individuals had event rates approaching 70%. About one-third of high-risk individuals had accelerated mortality, all who died before experiencing an AIDS-defining event. High-risk was associated with being immunocompromised and higher predicted 5-year mortality. The joint frailty model permits classification of individuals into risk groups based on unobserved heterogeneity that may be identifiable based on observed covariates, providing advantages over the traditional Cox model.

Adverse outcomes occurring early after antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation are common in sub-Saharan Africa, despite reports of high levels of ART adherence in this setting. We sought to determine the relationship between very early ART adherence and early adverse outcomes in HIV-infected adults in Botswana. This prospective cohort study of 402 ART-naïve, HIV-infected adults initiating ART at a public HIV clinic in Gaborone, Botswana evaluated the relationship between suboptimal early ART adherence and HIV treatment outcomes in the initial months after ART initiation. Early adherence during the interval between initial ART dispensation and first ART refill was calculated using pill counts. In the primary analysis patients not returning to refill and those with adherence <0.95 were considered to have suboptimal early adherence. The primary outcome was death or loss to follow-up during the first 6 months of ART; a secondary composite outcome included the primary outcome plus incident opportunistic illness (OIs) and virologic failure. We also calculated the percent of early adverse outcomes theoretically attributable to suboptimal early adherence using the population attributable risk percent (PAR%). Suboptimal early adherence was independently associated with loss to follow-up and death (adjusted OR 2.3, 95% CI 1.1-4.8) and with the secondary composite outcome including incident OIs and virologic failure (adjusted OR 2.6, 95% CI 1.4-4.7). However, of those with early adverse outcomes, less than one-third had suboptimal adherence and approximately two-thirds achieved virologic suppression. The PAR% relating suboptimal early adherence and primary and secondary outcomes were 14.7% and 17.7%, respectively. Suboptimal early adherence was associated with poor outcomes, but most early adverse outcomes occurred in patients with optimal early adherence. Clinical care and research efforts should focus on understanding early adverse outcomes that occur despite optimal adherence.

Background The objectives are to compare the effectiveness of cell phone-supported SMS messaging to standard care on adherence, quality of life, retention, and mortality in a population receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Nairobi, Kenya. Methods and Design A multi-site randomized controlled open-label trial. A central randomization centre provided opaque envelopes to allocate treatments. Patients initiating ART at three comprehensive care clinics in Kenya will be randomized to receive either a structured weekly SMS ('short message system' or text message) slogan (the intervention) or current standard of care support mechanisms alone (the control). Our hypothesis is that using a structured mobile phone protocol to keep in touch with patients will improve adherence to ART and other patient outcomes. Participants are evaluated at baseline, and then at six and twelve months after initiating ART. The care providers keep a weekly study log of all phone based communications with study participants. Primary outcomes are self-reported adherence to ART and suppression of HIV viral load at twelve months scheduled follow-up. Secondary outcomes are improvements in health, quality of life, social and economic factors, and retention on ART. Primary analysis is by 'intention-to-treat'. Sensitivity analysis will be used to assess per-protocol effects. Analysis of covariates will be undertaken to determine factors that contribute or deter from expected and determined outcomes. Discussion This study protocol tests whether a novel structured mobile phone intervention can positively contribute to ART management in a resource-limited setting. Trial Registration Trial Registration Number: NCT00830622

Objectives. We examined the associations between social support and mental and behavioral outcomes among adolescents whose parents were infected with or died of HIV/AIDS. Methods. Families (parents who were HIV infected and their adolescent children) were randomly assigned to a coping skills intervention or a standard care group. After completing the intervention, the parents and adolescents were assessed for 2 years. Results. Adolescents who had more social support providers reported significantly lower levels of depression and fewer conduct problems; adolescents who had more negative influence from role models reported more behavior problems. Reductions in depression, multiple problem behaviors, and conduct problems were significantly associated with better social support. Conclusions. Our findings underscore the complex relations between social support and mental and behavioral outcomes among adolescents affected by HIV/AIDS. Future prevention programs must focus on increasing social support to reduce negative outcomes among adolescents affected by HIV/AIDS as well as the need to reduce influence from negative role models.

With the advent of effective antiretroviral treatment, the life expectancy for people with HIV is now approaching that seen in the general population. Consequently, the relative importance of other traditionally non-AIDS-related morbidities has increased. We investigated trends over time in all-cause mortality and for specific causes of death in people with HIV from 1999 to 2011. Individuals from the Data collection on Adverse events of anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study were followed up from March, 1999, until death, loss to follow-up, or Feb 1, 2011, whichever occurred first. The D:A:D study is a collaboration of 11 cohort studies following HIV-1-positive individuals receiving care at 212 clinics in Europe, USA, and Australia. All fatal events were centrally validated at the D:A:D coordinating centre using coding causes of death in HIV (CoDe) methodology. We calculated relative rates using Poisson regression. 3909 of the 49 731 D:A:D study participants died during the 308 719 person-years of follow-up (crude incidence mortality rate, 12·7 per 1000 person-years [95% CI 12·3–13·1]). Leading underlying causes were: AIDS-related (1123 [29%] deaths), non-AIDS-defining cancers (590 [15%] deaths), liver disease (515 [13%] deaths), and cardiovascular disease (436 [11%] deaths). Rates of all-cause death per 1000 person-years decreased from 17·5 in 1999–2000 to 9·1 in 2009–11; we saw similar decreases in death rates per 1000 person-years over the same period for AIDS-related deaths (5·9 to 2·0), deaths from liver disease (2·7 to 0·9), and cardiovascular disease deaths (1·8 to 0·9). However, non-AIDS cancers increased slightly from 1·6 per 1000 person-years in 1999–2000 to 2·1 in 2009–11 (p=0·58). After adjustment for factors that changed over time, including CD4 cell count, we detected no decreases in AIDS-related death rates (relative rate for 2009–11 vs 1999–2000: 0·92 [0·70–1·22]). However, all-cause (0·72 [0·61–0·83]), liver disease (0·48 [0·32–0·74]), and cardiovascular disease (0·33 [0·20–0·53) death rates still decreased over time. The percentage of all deaths that were AIDS-related (87/256 [34%] in 1999–2000 and 141/627 [22%] in 2009–11) and liver-related (40/256 [16%] in 1999–2000 and 64/627 [10%] in 2009–11) decreased over time, whereas non-AIDS cancers increased (24/256 [9%] in 1999–2000 to 142/627 [23%] in 2009–11). Recent reductions in rates of AIDS-related deaths are linked with continued improvement in CD4 cell count. We hypothesise that the substantially reduced rates of liver disease and cardiovascular disease deaths over time could be explained by improved use of non-HIV-specific preventive interventions. Non-AIDS cancer is now the leading non-AIDS cause and without any evidence of improvement. Oversight Committee for the Evaluation of Metabolic Complications of HAART, with representatives from academia, patient community, US Food and Drug Administration, European Medicines Agency and consortium of AbbVie, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Gilead Sciences, ViiV Healthcare, Merck, Pfizer, F Hoffmann-La Roche, and Janssen Pharmaceuticals.

Introduction. In regional state of the study area, HIV (Human Immunodeficiency Virus) prevalence is 2.2% and opportunistic infections (OIs) occurred in 88.9% of pre-ART (Antiretroviral Therapy) people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA). Even though OIs are prevalent in the study area, duration of staying free from acquiring rehappening opportunistic infections and its determinant factors are not studied. Method. The study was conducted in randomly selected 341 adult Pre-ART PLWHA who are included in chronic HIV care. OI free duration was estimated using the actuarial life table and Kaplan Meier survival. Cox proportional-hazard model was used to calculate hazard rate. Result. OIs were rediagnosed in three quarters (75.37%) participants. In each week the probability of getting new recurrence OI was about 15.04 per 1000 person weeks. The median duration of not acquiring OI recurrence was 54 weeks. After adjustment, variables associated with recurrence were employment status, marital status, exposure for prophylaxis and adherence to it, CD4 count, and hemoglobin value. Conclusion. Giving prophylaxis and counseling to adhere it, rise in CD4 and hemoglobin level, and enhancing job opportunities should be given for PLWHA who are on chronic HIV care while continuing the care.

Information about the distribution of causes of and time trends for child mortality should be periodically updated. We report the latest estimates of causes of child mortality in 2010 with time trends since 2000. Updated total numbers of deaths in children aged 0–27 days and 1–59 months were applied to the corresponding country-specific distribution of deaths by cause. We did the following to derive the number of deaths in children aged 1–59 months: we used vital registration data for countries with an adequate vital registration system; we applied a multinomial logistic regression model to vital registration data for low-mortality countries without adequate vital registration; we used a similar multinomial logistic regression with verbal autopsy data for high-mortality countries; for India and China, we developed national models. We aggregated country results to generate regional and global estimates. Of 7·6 million deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2010, 64·0% (4·879 million) were attributable to infectious causes and 40·3% (3·072 million) occurred in neonates. Preterm birth complications (14·1%; 1·078 million, uncertainty range [UR] 0·916–1·325), intrapartum-related complications (9·4%; 0·717 million, 0·610–0·876), and sepsis or meningitis (5·2%; 0·393 million, 0·252–0·552) were the leading causes of neonatal death. In older children, pneumonia (14·1%; 1·071 million, 0·977–1·176), diarrhoea (9·9%; 0·751 million, 0·538–1·031), and malaria (7·4%; 0·564 million, 0·432–0·709) claimed the most lives. Despite tremendous efforts to identify relevant data, the causes of only 2·7% (0·205 million) of deaths in children younger than 5 years were medically certified in 2010. Between 2000 and 2010, the global burden of deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased by 2 million, of which pneumonia, measles, and diarrhoea contributed the most to the overall reduction (0·451 million [0·339–0·547], 0·363 million [0·283–0·419], and 0·359 million [0·215–0·476], respectively). However, only tetanus, measles, AIDS, and malaria (in Africa) decreased at an annual rate sufficient to attain the Millennium Development Goal 4. Child survival strategies should direct resources toward the leading causes of child mortality, with attention focusing on infectious and neonatal causes. More rapid decreases from 2010–15 will need accelerated reduction for the most common causes of death, notably pneumonia and preterm birth complications. Continued efforts to gather high-quality data and enhance estimation methods are essential for the improvement of future estimates. The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

There has been renewed call for the global expansion of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) under the framework of HIV treatment as prevention (TasP). However, population-level sustainability of this strategy has not been characterized. We used population-level longitudinal data from province-wide registries including plasma viral load, CD4 count, drug resistance, HAART use, HIV diagnoses, AIDS incidence, and HIV-related mortality. We fitted two Poisson regression models over the study period, to relate estimated HIV incidence and the number of individuals on HAART and the percentage of virologically suppressed individuals. HAART coverage, median pre-HAART CD4 count, and HAART adherence increased over time and were associated with increasing virological suppression and decreasing drug resistance. AIDS incidence decreased from 6.9 to 1.4 per 100,000 population (80% decrease, p = 0.0330) and HIV-related mortality decreased from 6.5 to 1.3 per 100,000 population (80% decrease, p = 0.0115). New HIV diagnoses declined from 702 to 238 cases (66% decrease; p = 0.0004) with a consequent estimated decline in HIV incident cases from 632 to 368 cases per year (42% decrease; p = 0.0003). Finally, our models suggested that for each increase of 100 individuals on HAART, the estimated HIV incidence decreased 1.2% and for every 1% increase in the number of individuals suppressed on HAART, the estimated HIV incidence also decreased by 1%. Our results show that HAART expansion between 1996 and 2012 in BC was associated with a sustained and profound population-level decrease in morbidity, mortality and HIV transmission. Our findings support the long-term effectiveness and sustainability of HIV treatment as prevention within an adequately resourced environment with no financial barriers to diagnosis, medical care or antiretroviral drugs. The 2013 Consolidated World Health Organization Antiretroviral Therapy Guidelines offer a unique opportunity to further evaluate TasP in other settings, particularly within generalized epidemics, and resource-limited setting, as advocated by UNAIDS.

Health data disaggregated by sex is vital for identifying the distribution of illness, and assessing risk exposures, service access, and utilization. Disaggregating data along a health pathway, i.e., the measurable continuum from risk factor exposure to final health outcome (death), and including disease prevalence and a three-step care cascade (diagnosis, treatment, and control), has the potential to provide a holistic and systematic source of information on sex- and gender-based health inequities and identify opportunities for more tailored interventions to reduce those inequities. We collected sex- and age-disaggregated data along the health pathway. We searched for papers using global datasets on the sex-disaggregated care cascade for eight major conditions and identified cascade data for only three conditions: hypertension, diabetes, and HIV and AIDS. For each condition, we collected risk factor prevalence, disease prevalence, cascade progression, and death rates. We assessed the sex difference for all steps along the pathway and interpreted inequities through a lens of gender analysis. Sex-disaggregated data on risk factors, disease prevalence, and mortality were found for all three conditions across 204 countries. Sex-disaggregated care cascades for hypertension, diabetes, and HIV and AIDS were found only for 200, 39, and 76 countries, respectively. Significant sex differences were found in each step along the pathways. In many countries, males exhibited higher disease prevalence and death rates than females, while in some countries, they also reported lower rates of healthcare seeking, diagnosis, and treatment adherence. Smoking prevalence was higher among males in most countries, whereas prevalence of obesity and unsafe sex were higher in females in most countries. Findings support the increasing need to develop strategies that encourage greater male participation in preventive and healthcare service and underscore the importance of sex-disaggregated data in understanding health inequities and guiding gender-responsive interventions at different points along the pathway. Despite limitations in data availability and completeness, this study elucidates the need for more comprehensive and harmonized datasets for these and other conditions to monitor sex differences and implement sex-/gender-responsive interventions along the health pathway.

'AIDS' in chimpanzees There are more than 40 different types of simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) infecting African primates, two of which crossed the species barrier to produce the AIDS viruses HIV-1 and HIV-2 in humans. Now a comprehensive natural history study of free-ranging chimpanzees in Gombe National Park has overturned a common assumption about SIVcpz, the precursor of HIV-1. It has been widely assumed that all SIVs are non-pathogenic in their natural hosts. But this new study, which followed 94 chimpanzees for over 9 years, shows that SIVcpz infection is associated with AIDS-like signs in chimpanzees, including a more than 10-fold increase in mortality risk, reduced fertility and progressive CD4 + T-cell depletion. By comparing the disease-causing mechanisms of these related retroviruses in humans and chimpanzees it may be possible to identify viral and host factors of interest to developers of drugs and vaccines for the prevention and treatment of HIV infection. There are over 40 different simian immunodeficiency viruses (SIVs) with which African primates are naturally infected; two of these have crossed the species barrier to generate human immunodeficiency virus types 1 and 2 (HIV-1 and HIV-2). Although SIVs do not generally cause AIDS in primates, AIDS-like disease is now shown to occur in chimpanzee populations in the wild who are naturally infected with SIVcpz, a close relative of HIV-1. African primates are naturally infected with over 40 different simian immunodeficiency viruses (SIVs), two of which have crossed the species barrier and generated human immunodeficiency virus types 1 and 2 (HIV-1 and HIV-2) 1 , 2 . Unlike the human viruses, however, SIVs do not generally cause acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in their natural hosts 3 . Here we show that SIVcpz, the immediate precursor of HIV-1, is pathogenic in free-ranging chimpanzees. By following 94 members of two habituated chimpanzee communities in Gombe National Park, Tanzania, for over 9 years, we found a 10- to 16-fold higher age-corrected death hazard for SIVcpz-infected ( n = 17) compared to uninfected ( n = 77) chimpanzees. We also found that SIVcpz-infected females were less likely to give birth and had a higher infant mortality rate than uninfected females. Immunohistochemistry and in situ hybridization of post-mortem spleen and lymph node samples from three infected and two uninfected chimpanzees revealed significant CD4 + T-cell depletion in all infected individuals, with evidence of high viral replication and extensive follicular dendritic cell virus trapping in one of them. One female, who died within 3 years of acquiring SIVcpz, had histopathological findings consistent with end-stage AIDS. These results indicate that SIVcpz, like HIV-1, is associated with progressive CD4 + T-cell loss, lymphatic tissue destruction and premature death. These findings challenge the prevailing view that all natural SIV infections are non-pathogenic and suggest that SIVcpz has a substantial negative impact on the health, reproduction and lifespan of chimpanzees in the wild.