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Purpose To improve the outcome of the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), one needs to identify potentially modifiable factors associated with mortality. Methods The large observational study to understand the global impact of severe acute respiratory failure (LUNG SAFE) was an international, multicenter, prospective cohort study of patients with severe respiratory failure, conducted in the winter of 2014 in a convenience sample of 459 ICUs from 50 countries across five continents. A pre-specified secondary aim was to examine the factors associated with outcome. Analyses were restricted to patients (93.1 %) fulfilling ARDS criteria on day 1–2 who received invasive mechanical ventilation. Results 2377 patients were included in the analysis. Potentially modifiable factors associated with increased hospital mortality in multivariable analyses include lower PEEP, higher peak inspiratory, plateau, and driving pressures, and increased respiratory rate. The impact of tidal volume on outcome was unclear. Having fewer ICU beds was also associated with higher hospital mortality. Non-modifiable factors associated with worsened outcome from ARDS included older age, active neoplasm, hematologic neoplasm, and chronic liver failure. Severity of illness indices including lower pH, lower PaO 2 /FiO 2 ratio, and higher non-pulmonary SOFA score were associated with poorer outcome. Of the 578 (24.3 %) patients with a limitation of life-sustaining therapies or measures decision, 498 (86.0 %) died in hospital. Factors associated with increased likelihood of limitation of life-sustaining therapies or measures decision included older age, immunosuppression, neoplasia, lower pH and increased non-pulmonary SOFA scores. Conclusions Higher PEEP, lower peak, plateau, and driving pressures, and lower respiratory rate are associated with improved survival from ARDS. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02010073.

Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4–19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2–59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5–49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1–70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7–54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3–75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5–51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9–88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3–238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6–42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2–5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Noninvasive ventilation (NIV) is increasingly used in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). The evidence supporting NIV use in patients with ARDS remains relatively sparse. To determine whether, during NIV, the categorization of ARDS severity based on the Pa /Fi Berlin criteria is useful. The LUNG SAFE (Large Observational Study to Understand the Global Impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Failure) study described the management of patients with ARDS. This substudy examines the current practice of NIV use in ARDS, the utility of the Pa /Fi ratio in classifying patients receiving NIV, and the impact of NIV on outcome. Of 2,813 patients with ARDS, 436 (15.5%) were managed with NIV on Days 1 and 2 following fulfillment of diagnostic criteria. Classification of ARDS severity based on Pa /Fi ratio was associated with an increase in intensity of ventilatory support, NIV failure, and intensive care unit (ICU) mortality. NIV failure occurred in 22.2% of mild, 42.3% of moderate, and 47.1% of patients with severe ARDS. Hospital mortality in patients with NIV success and failure was 16.1% and 45.4%, respectively. NIV use was independently associated with increased ICU (hazard ratio, 1.446 [95% confidence interval, 1.159-1.805]), but not hospital, mortality. In a propensity matched analysis, ICU mortality was higher in NIV than invasively ventilated patients with a Pa /Fi lower than 150 mm Hg. NIV was used in 15% of patients with ARDS, irrespective of severity category. NIV seems to be associated with higher ICU mortality in patients with a Pa /Fi lower than 150 mm Hg. Clinical trial registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT 02010073).

Abstract Rationale We previously identified two acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) subphenotypes in two separate randomized controlled trials with differential response to positive end-expiratory pressure. Objectives To identify these subphenotypes in a third ARDS cohort, to test whether subphenotypes respond differently to fluid management strategy, and to develop a practical model for subphenotype identification. Methods We used latent class analysis of baseline clinical and plasma biomarker data to identify subphenotypes in FACTT (Fluid and Catheter Treatment Trial; n = 1,000). Logistic regression was used to test for an interaction between subphenotype and treatment for mortality. We used stepwise modeling to generate a model for subphenotype identification in FACTT and validated its accuracy in the two cohorts in which we previously identified ARDS subphenotypes. Measurements and Main Results We confirmed that a two-class (two-subphenotype) model best described the study population. Subphenotype 2 was again characterized by higher inflammatory biomarkers and hypotension. Fluid management strategy had significantly different effects on 90-day mortality in the two subphenotypes (P = 0.0039 for interaction); mortality in subphenotype 1 was 26% with fluid-liberal strategy versus 18% with fluid-conservative, whereas mortality in subphenotype 2 was 40% with fluid-liberal strategy versus 50% in fluid-conservative. A three-variable model of IL-8, bicarbonate, and tumor necrosis factor receptor-1 accurately classified the subphenotypes. Conclusions This analysis confirms the presence of two ARDS subphenotypes that can be accurately identified with a limited number of variables and that responded differently to randomly assigned fluid management. These findings support the presence of ARDS subtypes that may require different treatment approaches.

The fifth Millennium Development Goal (MDG 5) established the goal of a 75% reduction in the maternal mortality ratio (MMR; number of maternal deaths per 100 000 livebirths) between 1990 and 2015. We aimed to measure levels and track trends in maternal mortality, the key causes contributing to maternal death, and timing of maternal death with respect to delivery. We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to analyse a database of data for 7065 site-years and estimate the number of maternal deaths from all causes in 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. We estimated the number of pregnancy-related deaths caused by HIV on the basis of a systematic review of the relative risk of dying during pregnancy for HIV-positive women compared with HIV-negative women. We also estimated the fraction of these deaths aggravated by pregnancy on the basis of a systematic review. To estimate the numbers of maternal deaths due to nine different causes, we identified 61 sources from a systematic review and 943 site-years of vital registration data. We also did a systematic review of reports about the timing of maternal death, identifying 142 sources to use in our analysis. We developed estimates for each country for 1990–2013 using Bayesian meta-regression. We estimated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for all values. 292 982 (95% UI 261 017–327 792) maternal deaths occurred in 2013, compared with 376 034 (343 483–407 574) in 1990. The global annual rate of change in the MMR was −0·3% (–1·1 to 0·6) from 1990 to 2003, and −2·7% (–3·9 to −1·5) from 2003 to 2013, with evidence of continued acceleration. MMRs reduced consistently in south, east, and southeast Asia between 1990 and 2013, but maternal deaths increased in much of sub-Saharan Africa during the 1990s. 2070 (1290–2866) maternal deaths were related to HIV in 2013, 0·4% (0·2–0·6) of the global total. MMR was highest in the oldest age groups in both 1990 and 2013. In 2013, most deaths occurred intrapartum or postpartum. Causes varied by region and between 1990 and 2013. We recorded substantial variation in the MMR by country in 2013, from 956·8 (685·1–1262·8) in South Sudan to 2·4 (1·6–3·6) in Iceland. Global rates of change suggest that only 16 countries will achieve the MDG 5 target by 2015. Accelerated reductions since the Millennium Declaration in 2000 coincide with increased development assistance for maternal, newborn, and child health. Setting of targets and associated interventions for after 2015 will need careful consideration of regions that are making slow progress, such as west and central Africa. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Estimates of the incidence of the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) in high- and middle-income countries vary from 10.1 to 86.2 per 100,000 person-years in the general population. The epidemiology of ARDS has not been reported for a low-income country at the level of the population, hospital, or intensive care unit (ICU). The Berlin definition may not allow identification of ARDS in resource-constrained settings. To estimate the incidence and outcomes of ARDS at a Rwandan referral hospital using the Kigali modification of the Berlin definition: without requirement for positive end-expiratory pressure, hypoxia cutoff of SpO2/FiO2 less than or equal to 315, and bilateral opacities on lung ultrasound or chest radiograph. We screened every adult patient for hypoxia at a public referral hospital in Rwanda for 6 weeks. For every patient with hypoxia, we collected data on demographics and ARDS risk factors, performed lung ultrasonography, and evaluated chest radiography when available. Forty-two (4.0%) of 1,046 hospital admissions met criteria for ARDS. Using various prespecified cutoffs for the SpO2/FiO2 ratio resulted in almost identical hospital incidence values. Median age for patients with ARDS was 37 years, and infection was the most common risk factor (44.1%). Only 30.9% of patients with ARDS were admitted to an ICU, and hospital mortality was 50.0%. Using traditional Berlin criteria, no patients would have met criteria for ARDS. ARDS seems to be a common and fatal syndrome in a hospital in Rwanda, with few patients admitted to an ICU. The Berlin definition is likely to underestimate the impact of ARDS in low-income countries, where resources to meet the definition requirements are lacking. Although the Kigali modification requires validation before widespread use, we hope this study stimulates further work in refining an ARDS definition that can be consistently used in all settings.

Abstract Rationale Increasing use of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) for acute respiratory failure may increase resource requirements and hospital costs. Better prediction of survival in these patients may improve resource use, allow risk-adjusted comparison of center-specific outcomes, and help clinicians to target patients most likely to benefit from ECMO. Objectives To create a model for predicting hospital survival at initiation of ECMO for respiratory failure. Methods Adult patients with severe acute respiratory failure treated by ECMO from 2000 to 2012 were extracted from the Extracorporeal Life Support Organization (ELSO) international registry. Multivariable logistic regression was used to create the Respiratory ECMO Survival Prediction (RESP) score using bootstrapping methodology with internal and external validation. Measurements and Main Results Of the 2,355 patients included in the study, 1,338 patients (57%) were discharged alive from hospital. The RESP score was developed using pre-ECMO variables independently associated with hospital survival on logistic regression, which included age, immunocompromised status, duration of mechanical ventilation before ECMO, diagnosis, central nervous system dysfunction, acute associated nonpulmonary infection, neuromuscular blockade agents or nitric oxide use, bicarbonate infusion, cardiac arrest, PaCO2, and peak inspiratory pressure. The receiver operating characteristics curve analysis of the RESP score was c = 0.74 (95% confidence interval, 0.72–0.76). External validation, performed on 140 patients, exhibited excellent discrimination (c = 0.92; 95% confidence interval, 0.89–0.97). Conclusions The RESP score is a relevant and validated tool to predict survival for patients receiving ECMO for respiratory failure.

Abstract Rationale Reducing tidal volume decreases mortality in acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). However, the effect of the timing of low tidal volume ventilation is not well understood. Objectives To evaluate the association of intensive care unit (ICU) mortality with initial tidal volume and with tidal volume change over time. Methods Multivariable, time-varying Cox regression analysis of a multisite, prospective study of 482 patients with ARDS with 11,558 twice-daily tidal volume assessments (evaluated in milliliter per kilogram of predicted body weight [PBW]) and daily assessment of other mortality predictors. Measurements and Main Results An increase of 1 ml/kg PBW in initial tidal volume was associated with a 23% increase in ICU mortality risk (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.23; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06–1.44; P = 0.008). Moreover, a 1 ml/kg PBW increase in subsequent tidal volumes compared with the initial tidal volume was associated with a 15% increase in mortality risk (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.02–1.29; P = 0.019). Compared with a prototypical patient receiving 8 days with a tidal volume of 6 ml/kg PBW, the absolute increase in ICU mortality (95% CI) of receiving 10 and 8 ml/kg PBW, respectively, across all 8 days was 7.2% (3.0–13.0%) and 2.7% (1.2–4.6%). In scenarios with variation in tidal volume over the 8-day period, mortality was higher when a larger volume was used earlier. Conclusions Higher tidal volumes shortly after ARDS onset were associated with a greater risk of ICU mortality compared with subsequent tidal volumes. Timely recognition of ARDS and adherence to low tidal volume ventilation is important for reducing mortality. Clinical trial registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT 00300248).

In this trial, high-frequency oscillatory ventilation was compared with conventional ventilation with a lung-protective protocol. When the study was stopped early, hospital mortality was 47% with HFOV versus 35% with the control ventilation strategy. The acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is a common complication of critical illness. 1 , 2 Mortality is high, and survivors often have long-term complications. 3 , 4 Although mechanical ventilation is life-sustaining for patients with ARDS, it can perpetuate lung injury. Basic research suggests that repetitive overstretching or collapse of lung units with each respiratory cycle can generate local and systemic inflammation, contributing to multiorgan failure and death. 5 Consistent with these findings are data from clinical trials that support the use of smaller tidal volumes (6 vs. 12 ml per kilogram of predicted body weight) 6 and higher levels of positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP). . . .

Background The effects of body mass index (BMI) on the prognosis of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) are controversial. We aimed to further determine the relationship between BMI and the acute outcomes of patients with ARDS. Methods We searched the Pubmed, Embase, Medline, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), and ISI Web of Science for trials published between 1946 and July 2016, using “BMI” or “body mass index” or “overweight” or “obese” and “ARDS” or “ALI” or “acute respiratory distress syndrome” or “acute lung injury”, without limitations on publication type or language. Heterogeneity and sensitivity analyses were conducted, and a random-effects model was applied to calculate the odds ratio (OR) or mean difference (MD). Review Manager (RevMan) was used to test the hypothesis using the Mann-Whitney U test. The primary outcome was unadjusted mortality, and secondary outcomes included mechanical ventilation (MV)-free days and length of stay (LOS) in the intensive care unit (ICU) and in hospital. Results Five trials with a total of 6268 patients were pooled in our final analysis. There was statistical heterogeneity between normal-weight and overweight patients in LOS in the ICU ( I 2  = 71%, χ 2  = 10.27, P  = 0.02) and in MV-free days ( I 2  = 89%, χ 2  = 18.45, P  < 0.0001). Compared with normal weight, being underweight was associated with higher mortality (OR 1.59, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.22, 2.08, P  = 0.0006), while obesity and morbid obesity were more likely to result in lower mortality (OR 0.68, 95% CI 0.57, 0.80, P  < 0.00001; OR 0.72, 95% CI 0.56, 0.93, P  = 0.01). MV-free days were much longer in patients with morbid obesity (MD 2.64, 95% CI 0.60, 4.67, P  = 0.01), but ICU and hospital LOS were not influenced by BMI. An important limitation of our analysis is the lack of adjustment for age, sex, illness severity, comorbid illness, and interaction of outcome parameters. Conclusions Obesity and morbid obesity are associated with lower mortality in patients with ARDS.