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23,793 result(s) for "Age Structure"
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Salt production and social hierarchy in ancient China : an archaeological investigation of specialization in China's Three Gorges
\"This book examines the organization of specialized salt production at Zhongba, one of the most important prehistoric sites in the Three Gorges of China's Yangzi River valley\"-- Provided by publisher.
An assessment of population size and demographic drivers of the Bearded Vulture using integrated population models
Conventional approaches for the assessment of population abundance or trends are usually based on a single source of information, such as counts or changes in demographic parameters. However, these approaches usually neglect some of the information needed to properly understand the population as a whole, such as assessments of the non-breeding proportion of the population and the drivers of population change. The Bearded Vulture Gypaetus barbatus is a threatened species and its Pyrenean population (the largest in Europe) inhabits parts of Spain, Andorra, and France. We developed an Integrated Population Model (IPM) using data from a long-term study (1987–2016) in the three countries, including capture–mark–recapture of 150 marked individuals, to assess population size and age structure at the whole population scale, and obtain estimates of survival and breeding parameters of this population. The breeding population experienced a geometric mean population increase of 3.3% annually, falling to 2.3% during the last 10 yr. The adult proportion of the population increased with time, from 61% to 73%. There were 365 (95% Bayesian credible interval [BCI]: 354–373) adult breeding birds in 2016, representing 49% of the adult population and 36% of the total population (estimated at 1,026 individuals, 95% BCI: 937–1,119). The large number of non-breeding adults probably led to higher mean age of first reproduction than previously estimated, and to an estimated 30–35% of territories occupied by polyandrous trios. Population growth rate was positively and strongly correlated with adult survival, which had a much greater effect on population growth than productivity. The effects of subadult and juvenile survival on population growth were weaker. We found strong evidence for a density-dependent decrease in juvenile survival, productivity and adult survival, leading to reduced population growth with increased population size. Our approach allowed us to identify important conservation issues related to the management of supplementary feeding sites and geographic expansion of this population. Our study supports the use of IPMs as a tool to understand long-lived species, allowing simultaneous estimates of the non-breeding size of the population (which is critical for understanding population functioning), better estimates of population parameters, and assessment of demographic drivers.
Impact of population, age structure, and urbanization on carbon emissions/energy consumption: evidence from macro-level, cross-country analyses
This review summarizes the evidence from cross-country, macro-level studies on the way demographic factors and processes—specifically, population, age structure, household size, urbanization, and population density—influence carbon emissions and energy consumption. Analyses employing time-variant data have produced great variance in population elasticity estimations—sometimes significantly greater than one, sometimes significantly less than one; whereas, cross-sectional analyses typically have estimated population elasticities near one. Studies that have considered age structure typically have used standard World Bank definitions and mostly have found those variables to be insignificant. However, when researchers have considered levels of disaggregation that approximate life-cycle behavior like family size, they have uncovered relationships that are complex and nonlinear. Average household size has a negative relationship with road energy use and aggregate carbon emissions. Urbanization appears positively associated with energy consumption and carbon emissions. Higher population density is associated with lower levels of energy consumption and emissions.
The demographic consequences of growing older and bigger in oyster populations
Structured population models, particularly size- or age-structured, have a long history of informing conservation and natural resource management. While size is often easier to measure than age and is the focus of many management strategies, age-structure can have important effects on population dynamics that are not captured in size-only models. However, relatively few studies have included the simultaneous effects of both age- and size-structure. To better understand how population structure, particularly that of age and size, impacts restoration and management decisions, we developed and compared a size-structured integral projection model (IPM) and an age- and size-structured IPM, using a population of Crassostrea gigas oysters in the northeastern Pacific Ocean. We analyzed sensitivity of model results across values of local retention that give populations decreasing in size to populations increasing in size. We found that age- and size-structured models yielded the best fit to the demographic data and provided more reliable results about long-term demography. Elasticity analysis showed that population growth rate was most sensitive to changes in the survival of both large (>175 mm shell length) and small (<75 mm shell length) oysters, indicating that a maximum size limit, in addition to a minimum size limit, could be an effective strategy for maintaining a sustainable population. In contrast, the purely size-structured model did not detect the importance of large individuals. Finally, patterns in stable age and stable size distributions differed between populations decreasing in size due to limited local retention and populations increasing in size due to high local retention. These patterns can be used to determine population status and restoration success. The methodology described here provides general insight into the necessity of including both age- and size-structure into modeling frameworks when using population models to inform restoration and management decisions.
Fire-mediated pathways of stand development in Douglas-fir/western hemlock forests of the Pacific Northwest, USA
Forests dominated by Douglas‐fir and western hemlock in the Pacific Northwest of the United States have strongly influenced concepts and policy concerning old‐growth forest conservation. Despite the attention to their old‐growth characteristics, a tendency remains to view their disturbance ecology in relatively simple terms, emphasizing infrequent, stand‐replacing (SR) fire and an associated linear pathway toward development of those old‐growth characteristics. This study uses forest stand‐ and age‐structure data from 124 stands in the central western Cascades of Oregon to construct a conceptual model of stand development under the mixed‐severity fire regime that has operated extensively in this region. Hierarchical clustering of variables describing the age distributions of shade‐intolerant and shade‐tolerant species identified six groups, representing different influences of fire frequency and severity on stand development. Douglas‐fir trees >400 years old were found in 84% of stands, yet only 18% of these stands (15% overall) lack evidence of fire since the establishment of these old trees, whereas 73% of all stands show evidence of at least one non‐stand‐replacing (NSR) fire. Differences in fire frequency and severity have contributed to multiple development pathways and associated variation in contemporary stand structure and the successional roles of the major tree species. Shade‐intolerant species form a single cohort following SR fire, or up to four cohorts per stand in response to recurring NSR fires that left living trees at densities up to 45 trees/ha. Where the surviving trees persist at densities of 60–65 trees/ha, the postfire cohort is composed only of shade‐tolerant species. This study reveals that fire history and the development of old‐growth forests in this region are more complex than characterized in current stand‐development models, with important implications for maintaining existing old‐growth forests and restoring stands subject to timber management.
Age structure of cohorts of mosquitoes from the field using shortwave infrared spectroscopy before and after ULV adulticide treatment
Background The timely assessment of mosquito control efficacy through monitoring the age structure of wild cohorts of adult mosquitoes would improve operational decision making by control personnel. Analysis of shortwave infrared cuticular spectra for cohorts of laboratory reared Anopheles gambiae and Aedes aegypti of known age has shown that spectra outlier fraction is higher for cohorts of younger versus older weighted average age. This study investigates differences in outlier fraction of shortwave infrared cuticular spectra from wild cohorts of host-seeking mosquitoes of different species collected pre- and postultra-low volume (ULV) adulticiding (pyrethroid derivative, Etofenprox), with the hypothesis that post-treatment cohort spectra will have a higher outlier fraction than pretreatment due to younger mosquitoes replacing older ones killed by treatment. Methods Over 15,000 mosquitoes representing eleven species were collected 1 day pre-ULV adulticide application and 2 days post application during four biweekly treatments conducted at a site near Westford, Massachusetts from July to August of 2023. Shortwave infrared absorbance measurements were taken on 3100 specimens apportioned from all treatments and collection days, and spectra were then aggregated to pre- and post-treatment datasets for each species. Results Measurable changes occurred in pre- versus post-treatment cohort spectra outlier fraction for all species. A total of 8 of 11 species showed an increase in outlier fraction for post-treatment cohorts when aggregated over a 2-day post-treatment period, indicating replacement of older by younger mosquitoes. Analysis of abundance versus spectra outlier fraction over pre- and post-treatment collection days showed varying trends by species, implying an impact from recruitment of adults from new cohorts during the post-treatment period. Conclusions We believe the technique shows promise for monitoring the age-structure of wild cohorts of mosquitoes over time. The method is particularly suitable for surveillance programs since it is rapid, incorporates economic equipment, involves only minimal training, does not require freshly killed mosquitoes and does not use machine learning. Future research should comprise longer post-treatment periods for better trend analysis and be directed toward geographically distinct and problematic mosquito vectors of importance. Further refinements in assessing the utility of the outlier fraction technique for age-grading may consider the influence of mosquito diet and infection with pathogens and focus on potential impacts from mosquito diet and parasitism. Graphical abstract
Fire regimes, forest change, and self-organization in an old-growth mixed-conifer forest, Yosemite National Park, USA
Fire is recognized as a keystone process in dry mixed-conifer forests that have been altered by decades of fire suppression. Restoration of fire disturbance to these forests is a guiding principle of resource management in the U.S. National Park Service. Policy implementation is often hindered by a poor understanding of forest conditions before fire exclusion, the characteristics of forest changes since excluding fire, and the influence of topographic or self-organizing controls on forest structure. In this study the spatial and temporal characteristics of fire regimes and forest structure are reconstructed in a 2125-ha mixed-conifer forest. Forests were multi-aged, burned frequently at low severity and fire-return interval, and forest structure did not vary with slope aspect, elevation, or slope position. Fire exclusion has caused an increase in forest density and basal area and a compositional shift to shade-tolerant and fire-intolerant species. The median point fire-return interval and extent of a fire was 10 yr and 115 ha, respectively. The pre-Euro-American settlement fire rotation of 13 yr increased to 378 yr after 1905. The position of fire scars within tree rings indicates that 79% of fires burned in the midsummer to fall period. The spatial pattern of burns exhibited self-organizing behavior. Area burned was 10-fold greater when an area had not been burned by the previous fire. Fires were frequent and widespread, but patches of similar aged trees were <0.2 ha, suggesting small fire-caused canopy openings. Managers need to apply multiple burns at short intervals for a sustained period to reduce surface fuels and create small canopy openings characteristic of the reference forest. By coupling explicit reference conditions with consideration of current conditions and projected climate change, management activities can balance restoration and risk management.
Assessing the Cumulative Impacts of Forest Management on Forest Age Structure Development and Woodland Caribou Habitat in Boreal Landscapes: A Case Study from Two Canadian Provinces
The Canadian boreal forest biome has been subjected to a long history of management for wood production. Here, we examined the cumulative impacts of logging on older forests in terms of area, distribution and patch configuration in the managed forest zones of the Eastern Canadian provinces of Ontario and Quebec. We also examined the consequences of these cumulative impacts on a once widely distributed and now threatened species, the woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou). The cumulative area of recently logged forest (since ~1976) was 14,024,619 ha, with 8,210,617 ha in Quebec and 5,814,002 ha in Ontario. The total area of older forests was 21,249,341 ha, with 11,840,474 ha in Quebec and 9,408,867 ha in Ontario. Patch statistics revealed that there were 1,085,822 older forests with core patches < 0.25 ha and an additional 603,052 < 1.0 ha. There were 52 > 10,00–50,000 ha and 8 < 50,000 ha. Older forest patches (critical caribou habitat) in the 21 local population ranges totalled 6,103,534 ha, distributed among ~387,102 patches with 362,933 < 10 ha and 14 > 50,000 ha. The median percentage of local population ranges that was disturbed was 53.5%, with Charlevoix having the maximum (90.3%) and Basse Côte-Nord the least (34.9%). Woodland caribou local population ranges with disturbed suitable habitats >35% are considered unable to support self-sustaining populations. We found that for the 21 caribou local population ranges examined, 3 were at very high risk (>75% area disturbed), 16 at high risk (>45 ≤ 75% area disturbed), and 2 at low risk (≤35% area disturbed). Major changes are needed in boreal forest management in Ontario and Quebec for it to be ecologically sustainable, including a greater emphasis on protection and restoration for older forests, and to lower the risks for caribou populations.
Matrix models for a changeable world: the importance of transient dynamics in population management
1. Matrix population models are tools for elucidating the association between demographic processes and population dynamics. A large amount of useful theory pivots on the assumption of equilibrium dynamics. The preceding transient is, however, of genuine conservation concern as it encompasses the short-term impact of natural or anthropogenic disturbance on the population. 2. We review recent theoretical advances in deterministic transient analysis of matrix projection models, considering how disturbance can alter population dynamics by provoking a new population trajectory. 3. We illustrate these impacts using plant and vertebrate systems across contiguous and fragmented landscapes. 4. Short-term responses are of fundamental relevance for applied ecology, because the time-scale of transient effects is often similar to the length of many conservation projects. Investigation of the immediate, post-disturbance phase is vital for understanding how population processes respond to widespread disturbance in the short- and into the long term. 5. Synthesis and applications. Transient analysis is critical for understanding and predicting the consequences of management activities. By considering short-term population responses to perturbations, especially in long-lived species, managers can develop more informed strategies for species harvesting or controlling of invasive species.
Effects of Forestry Transformation on the Ecosystem Level of Biodiversity in Poland’s Forests
This paper presents the results of an analysis of the effects of Poland’s forest management evolution over the last 75 years on forest biodiversity at the ecosystem level. Forest biodiversity changes in the two politically and economically different eras (socialism and democracy) are interpreted based on four indicators used in assessments of forest stands (naturalness; habitat diversity; forest management system; forest stand age structure). In the era of socialism (1945–1989), there were dynamic increases in the area of semi-natural forests as well as in the proportion of the most fertile habitats, whilst the proportion of the poorest habitats decreased quite dynamically. Then, the clearcutting management system was regularly implemented, with adverse impacts on forest spatial structure diversity. The proportion of old/mature tree stands and the stand average age increased at relatively slow rates. In the era of democracy (1990–2020), there were comparatively more dynamic increases observed in the area of forests undisturbed by man, as well as in the proportions of mixed broadleaved and wetland forest habitats. At the same time, the proportion of old/mature stands and stand average age kept increasing at relatively fast rates. The area of forests managed with the use of the shelterwood system increased and the area of forest plantations substantially decreased. On the other hand, irrespective of the era under study, there occurred a noticeable not-so-favourable decreasing trend in the proportion of the youngest forest stands. All in all, during the analysed period of more than seven decades, the evolution of forest management practice implemented in Poland’s forests by State Forests National Forest Holding led to the restoration of/an increase in biodiversity at the ecosystem level. Yet, there have remained unsolved issues, as regards the following aspects: organisational (the assurance of further reconstruction of forest stands, and the restoration of water profiles), political (a lack of up-to-date national forest policy), and financial (the costs of protecting/restoring biodiversity vs. State Forests’ self-financing), as well as conceptual (old-growth stands in managed forests, and controversy over clearcutting) and natural/anthropogenic (climate change, and the eutrophication of forest habitats) issues. The solutions may require measures outside the limits of Poland’s forestry, if not far beyond national borders.