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49,485 result(s) for "Ageing population"
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Global shifts, theoretical shifts: Changing geographies of religion
The paper evaluates the burst in geographical research on religion in the last decade. It examines: (1) the relative emphases and silences in analyses of different sites of religious practice, sensuous geographies, population constituents, religions, geographies and scales of analyses; (2) the rise in the discourse of postsecularization; and (3) four contemporary global shifts (growing urbanization and social inequality, deteriorating environments, ageing populations, and increasing human mobilities), the ways in which religion shapes human response to them, and the implications for new research agendas.
Spatio-temporal pattern, matching level and prediction of ageing and medical resources in China
Objective Population ageing, as a hot issue in global development, increases the burden of medical resources in society. This study aims to assess the current spatiotemporal evolution and interaction between population ageing and medical resources in mainland China; evaluate the matching level of medical resources to population ageing; and forecast future trends of ageing, medical resources, and the indicator of ageing-resources (IAR). Methods Data on ageing (EPR) and medical resources (NHI, NBHI, and NHTP) were obtained from China Health Statistics Yearbook and China Statistical Yearbook (2011–2020). We employed spatial autocorrelation to examine the spatial–temporal distribution trends and analyzed the spatio-temporal interaction using a Bayesian spatio-temporal effect model. The IAR, an improved evaluation indicator, was used to measure the matching level of medical resources to population ageing with kernel density analysis for visualization. Finally, an ETS-DNN model was used to forecast the trends in population ageing, medical resources, and their matching level over the next decade. Results The study found that China's ageing population and medical resources are growing annually, yet distribution is uneven across districts. There is a spatio-temporal interaction effect between ageing and medical resources, with higher levels of both in Eastern China and lower levels in Western China. The IAR is relatively high in Northwest, North China, and the Yangtze River Delta, but showed a declining trend in North China and the Yangtze River Delta. The hybrid model (ETS-DNN) gained an R 2 of 0.9719, and the predicted median IAR for 2030 (0.99) across 31 regions was higher than the median IAR for 2020 (0.93). Conclusion This study analyzes the relationship between population ageing and medical resources, revealing a spatio-temporal interaction between them. The IAR evaluation indicator highlights the need to address ageing population challenges and cultivate a competent health workforce. The ETS-DNN forecasts indicate higher concentrations of both medical resources and ageing populations in eastern China, emphasizing the need for region-specific ageing security systems and health service industries. The findings provide valuable policy insights for addressing a hyper-aged society in the future.
Population aging : is Latin America ready?
The past half-century has seen enormous changes in the demographic makeup of Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). In the 1950s, LAC had a small population of about 160 million people, less than today's population of Brazil. Two-thirds of Latin Americans lived in rural areas. Families were large and women had one of the highest fertility rates in the world, low levels of education, and few opportunities for work outside the household. Investments in health and education reached only a small fraction of the children, many of whom died before reaching age five. Since then, the size of the LAC population has tripled and the mostly rural population has been transformed into a largely urban population. There have been steep reductions in child mortality, and investments in health and education have increased, today reaching a majority of children. Fertility has been more than halved and the opportunities for women in education and for work outside the household have improved significantly. Life expectancy has grown by 22 years. Less obvious to the casual observer, but of significance for policy makers, a population with a large fraction of dependent children has evolved into a population with fewer dependents and a very large proportion of working-age adults. This overview seeks to introduce the reader to three groups of issues related to population aging in LAC. First is a group of issues related to the support of the aging and poverty in the life cycle. Second is the question of the health transition. Third is an understanding of the fiscal pressures that are likely to accompany population aging and to disentangle the role of demography from the role of policy in that process.
Retirement Security in an Aging Population
Elderly individuals exhibit wide disparities in their sources of income. For those in the bottom half of the income distribution, Social Security is the most important source of support; program changes would directly affect their well-being. Income from private pensions, assets, and earnings are relatively more important for higher-income elderly individuals, who have more diverse income sources. The trend from private sector defined benefit to defined contribution pension plans has shifted responsibility for retirement security to individuals. A significant subset of the population is unlikely to be able to sustain their standard of living in retirement without higher pre-retirement saving.
THE IMPACT OF AGE PENSION ELIGIBILITY AGE ON RETIREMENT AND PROGRAM DEPENDENCE: EVIDENCE FROM AN AUSTRALIAN EXPERIMENT
Governments around the world are reforming their social security systems in light of the challenges posed by population aging. We study the 1993 Australian Age Pension reform, which progressively increased the eligibility age for women from 60 to 65 years. We find economically significant responses to the reform. An increase in the eligibility age of one year induced a decline in the probability of retirement by 12 to 19 percentage points. In addition, the reform induced significant program substitution, with increases in enrollment in other social insurance programs, particularly the disability support pension, which effectively functioned as an alternative source of retirement income.
Global Population Aging: Facts, Challenges, Solutions & Perspectives
The rapid aging of populations around the world presents an unprecedented set of challenges: shifting disease burden, increased expenditure on health and long-term care, labor-force shortages, dissaving, and potential problems with old-age income security. We view longer life spans, particularly longer healthy life spans, as an enormous gain for human welfare. The challenges come from the fact that our current institutional and social arrangements are unsuited for aging populations and shifting demographics; our proposed solution is therefore to change our institutions and social arrangements. The first section of this essay provides a statistical overview of global population aging and its contributing factors. The second section outlines some of the major challenges associated with widespread population aging. Finally, the third section of the essay describes various responses to these challenges, both current and prospective, facing individuals, businesses, institutions, and governments.
Population Ageing and Australia's Future
\"This volume provides evidence from many of Australia’s leading scholars from a range of social science disciplines to support policies that address challenges presented by Australia’s ageing population. It builds on presentations made to the 2014 Symposium of the Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia. The material is in four parts: Perspectives on Ageing; Population Ageing: Global, regional and Australian perspectives; Improving Health and Wellbeing; Responses by Government and Families/Individuals. ‘The Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia sees this volume as a major contribution to improving our understanding of Australia’s population ageing. Social science research in this area truly underpins our ability as a nation to manage such demographic change, and its consequences for the economy and society. Such knowledge helps ensure that our citizens can live even better lives.’ — Glenn Withers, President, ASSA\"
Exploring the spatial-temporal distribution and evolution of population aging and social-economic indicators in China
Background China is one of the world’s fastest-aging countries. Population aging and social-economic development show close relations. This study aims to illustrate the spatial-temporal distribution and movement of gravity centers of population aging and social-economic factors and thier spatial interaction across the provinces in China. Methods Factors of elderly population rate (EPR), elderly dependency ratio (EDR), per capita gross regional product (GRP pc ), and urban population rate (UPR) were collected. Distribution patterns were detected by using global spatial autocorrelation, Kernel density estimation, and coefficient of variation. Further, Arc GIS software was used to find the gravity centers and their movement trends yearly from 2002 to 2018. The spatial interaction between the variables was investigated based on bivariate spatial autocorrelation analysis. Results The results showed a larger variety of global spatial autocorrelation indexed by Moran’s I and stable trends of dispersion degree without obvious convergence in EPR and EDR. Furthermore, the gravity centers of the proportion of EPR and EDR moved northeastward. In contrast, the economic and urbanization factors showed a southwestward movement, which exhibited an reverse trend compared to population aging indicators. Moreover, the movement rates of EPR and EDR (15.12 and 18.75 km/year, respectively) were higher than that of GRP pc (13.79 km/year) and UPR (6.89 km/year) annually during the study period. Further, the bivariate spatial autocorrelation variation is in line with the movement trends of gravity centers which showed a polarization trend of population aging and social-economic factors that the difference between southwest and northeast directions and exhibited a tendency to expand in China. Conclusions In sum, our findings revealed the difference in spatio-temporal distribution and variation between population aging and social-economic factors in China. It further indicates that the opposite movements of gravity centers and the change of the BiLISA in space which may result in the increase of the economic burden of the elderly care in northern China. Hence, future development policy should focus on the social-economic growth and distribution of old-aged supporting resources, especially in northern China.
Aging in Europe: Reforms, International Diversification, and Behavioral Reactions
The extent of demographic changes in Europe is much more drastic than in the United States. This paper studies the effects of population aging on the interactions between economic growth and living standards in Europe with labor market and pension reform, behavioral adaptations, and international capital flows. Our analysis is based on an overlapping generations model with behavioral reactions to reform which is extended to the multi-country situation typical for Europe. While the negative effects of population aging on growth in Europe can in principle be compensated by reforms and economic adaptation mechanisms, they may be partially offset by behavioral reactions.
Forecast of total health expenditure on China’s ageing population: a system dynamics model
Background China is currently at a turning point as its total population has started to decline, and therefore faces issues related to caring for an ageing population, which will require an increase in Total Health Expenditure (THE). Therefore, the ability to forecast China’s future THE is essential. Methods We developed two THE System Dynamics (SD) models using Stella Architect 3.4 to simulate China’s THE from 2000 to 2060. The constant prices THE SD model estimates THE under low, medium, and high Total Fertility Rate (TFR) scenarios. The current prices THE SD model serves as a robust calibration check. In addition, we developed a new total Gross Domestic Production (GDP) forecast model to estimate THE/GDP over the same period. Results Our simulation results reveal a significant upward trend in China’s THE from 2000 to 2060. Specifically, under the low TFR scenario, THE is projected to reach approximately $33.4 trillion in 2015 constant USD by 2060. However, with the introduction of efficiency impact factors, THE is expected to fall to around $8.6 trillion by 2060. Additionally, the per capita Health Expenditure is anticipated to rise from $102 in 2000 to roughly $30,800 by 2060, though it could see a decrease to nearly $7,900 with efficiency improvements. Our GDP forecast for 2060 is nearly $87 trillion, with THE to GDP ratio expected to be about 9.7%. In our scenario analysis, as TFR increases, the growing new births and decreased ageing rate are expected to lead to a rise in THE and a decrease in per capita Health Expenditure. Conclusion The efficiency of THE utilization needs to be improved. Increasing TFR can help alleviate population decline and ageing to some extent. Enhancing workforce productivity and sustained economic growth is needed to counteract the challenges posed by an ageing population.