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"Agriculture Forecasting."
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Farming and the future
This book explores the different areas of modern farming, including the use of robots, computers, and genetics.
Book
Crisis and Opportunity
With the decline of family farms and rural communities and the rise of corporate farming and the resulting environmental degradation, American agriculture is in crisis. But this crisis offers the opportunity to rethink agriculture in sustainable terms. Here one of the most eloquent and influential proponents of sustainable agriculture explains what this means. These engaging essays describe what sustainable agriculture is, why it began, and how it can succeed. Together they constitute a clear and compelling vision for rebalancing the ecological, economic, and social dimensions of agriculture to meet the needs of the present without compromising the future. In emCrisis and Opportunity/em, John E. Ikerd outlines the consequences of agricultural industrialization, then details the methods that can restore economic viability, ecological soundness, and social responsibility to our agricultural system and thus ensure sustainable agriculture as the foundation of a sustainable food system and a sustainable society.
eBook
Colombian Agricultural Sector's Early Estimator of Gross Domestic Production Using Nowcasting and Big Data Methods
Facing challenges like the COVID-19 pandemic, statistical production increasingly relies on non-traditional data sources for timely and accurate information. In this regard, The National Statistical Office of Colombia (DANE, by its acronym in Spanish) initiated a project, supported by the Statistics Advisory Council, to develop an early estimator for the Colombian agricultural sector. This paper presents the results for the implementation of a Ridge model and Zero Shot Classification to estimate the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the agricultural sector, leveraging Google News and Google Trends. Results reveal that these alternative sources offer valuable insights into economic trends. Combining machine learning techniques with Nowcasting methods yielded precise projections. The Ridge method demonstrated the lowest estimation error, providing an early GDP indicator for the agricultural sector of 8,188 billion Colombian pesos for 2022 Q2, 30 days ahead of official publication.
Journal Article
The Green New Deal and the future of work
\"Catastrophic climate change overshadows the present and the future. Wrenching economic transformations have devastated workers and hollowed out communities. However, those fighting for jobs and those fighting for the planet have often been at odds. Does the world face two separate crises, environmental and economic? The promise of the Green New Deal is to tackle the threat of climate change through the empowerment of working people and the strengthening of democracy. In this view, the crisis of nature and the crisis of work must be addressed together-or they will not be addressed at all. This book brings together leading experts to explore the possibilities of the Green New Deal, emphasizing the future of work. Together, they examine transformations that are already underway and put forth bold new proposals that can provide jobs while reducing carbon consumption-building a world that is sustainable both economically and ecologically. Contributors also debate urgent questions: What is the value of a federal jobs program, or even a jobs guarantee? How do we alleviate the miseries and precarity of work? In key economic sectors, including energy, transportation, housing, agriculture, and care work, what kind of work is needed today? How does the New Deal provide guidance in addressing these questions, and how can a Green New Deal revive democracy? Above all, this book shows, the Green New Deal offers hope for a better tomorrow-but only if it accounts for work's past transformations and shapes its future\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
Hybrid modeling approaches for agricultural commodity prices using CEEMDAN and time delay neural networks
Improving the forecasting accuracy of agricultural commodity prices is critical for many stakeholders namely, farmers, traders, exporters, governments, and all other partners in the price channel, to evade risks and enable appropriate policy interventions. However, the traditional mono-scale smoothing techniques often fail to capture the non-stationary and non-linear features due to their multifarious structure. This study has proposed a CEEMDAN (Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise)-TDNN (Time Delay Neural Network) model for forecasting non-linear, non-stationary agricultural price series. This study has evaluated its suitability in comparison with the other three major EMD (Empirical Mode Decomposition) variants (EMD, Ensemble EMD and Complementary Ensemble EMD) and the benchmark (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, Non-linear Support Vector Regression, Gradient Boosting Machine, Random Forest and TDNN) models using monthly wholesale prices of major oilseed crops in India. Outcomes from this investigation reflect that the CEEMDAN-TDNN hybrid models have outperformed all other forecasting models on the basis of evaluation metrics under consideration. For the proposed model, an average improvement of RMSE (Root Mean Square Error), Relative RMSE and MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) values has been observed to be 20.04%, 19.94% and 27.80%, respectively over the other EMD variant-based counterparts and 57.66%, 48.37% and 62.37%, respectively over the other benchmark stochastic and machine learning models. The CEEMD-TDNN and CEEMDAN-TDNN models have demonstrated superior performance in predicting the directional changes of monthly price series compared to other models. Additionally, the accuracy of forecasts generated by all models has been assessed using the Diebold-Mariano test, the Friedman test, and the Taylor diagram. The results confirm that the proposed hybrid model has outperformed the alternative models, providing a distinct advantage.
Journal Article
Foragers, farmers, and fossil fuels : how human values evolve
\"Most people in the world today think democracy and gender equality are good, and that violence and wealth inequality are bad. But most people who lived during the 10,000 years before the nineteenth century thought just the opposite. Drawing on archaeology, anthropology, biology, and history, Ian Morris, author of the best-selling Why the West Rules--for Now, explains why. The result is a compelling new argument about the evolution of human values, one that has far-reaching implications for how we understand the past--and for what might happen next. Fundamental long-term changes in values, Morris argues, are driven by the most basic force of all: energy. Humans have found three main ways to get the energy they need--from foraging, farming, and fossil fuels. Each energy source sets strict limits on what kinds of societies can succeed, and each kind of society rewards specific values. In tiny forager bands, people who value equality but are ready to settle problems violently do better than those who aren't; in large farming societies, people who value hierarchy and are less willing to use violence do best; and in huge fossil-fuel societies, the pendulum has swung back toward equality but even further away from violence. But if our fossil-fuel world favors democratic, open societies, the ongoing revolution in energy capture means that our most cherished values are very likely to turn out--at some point fairly soon--not to be useful any more. Originating as the Tanner Lectures delivered at Princeton University, the book includes challenging responses by novelist Margaret Atwood, philosopher Christine Korsgaard, classicist Richard Seaford, and historian of China Jonathan Spence\"-- Provided by publisher.
BOOK
Perspectives d'avenir pour l'alimentation et l'agriculture dans le monde
Il nous faut relever le défi du développement d’un système alimentaire mondial capable de nourrir une population croissante et plus aisée tout en préservant les écosystèmes sensibles ; d’entrer en concurrence pour l’accès aux ressource naturelles limitées ; d’augmenter la croissance de la productivité agricole tout en atténuant le changement climatique et en s’y adaptant ainsi qu’aux autres dangers ; et de contribuer au bien-être dans les zones rurales.Ce rapport présente trois scénarios alternatifs contrastés pour illustrer différentes perspectives d’avenir. Les scénarios se fondent sur plusieurs modèles économiques mondiaux et sur de longues discussions avec les parties prenantes concernées. Le rapport souligne les considérations pour les politiques afin que les besoins futurs soient remplis de manière durable au plan économique, social et environnemental. Les scénarios mettent en lumière les incertitudes de fonds qui entourent la prise de décisions pour l’avenir, et indiquent l’importance cruciale que revêt la coopération internationale dans de nombreux domaines d’action.
eBook
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2020-2029
The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2020-2029 is a collaborative effort of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, incorporating expertise from collaborating member countries and international commodity organisations. It provides market projections for national, regional and global supply and demand of major agricultural commodities, biofuel and fish.During the preparation of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2020-2029, the exact effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on agricultural markets were still largely unknown and they were therefore not incorporated in the baseline projections. Nevertheless, the Outlook aims to outline the channels of transmission of COVID-19 impacts on the various food and agriculture sectors.Supplementary information can be found at www.agri-outlook.org .
eBook
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2021-2030
The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2021-2030 is a collaborative effort of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation Development (OECD) and the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, prepared with input from Member governments and international commodity organisations. It provides a consensus assessment of the ten-year prospects for agricultural commodity, fish and biofuel markets at national, regional and global levels, and serves as a reference for forward-looking policy analysis and planning.The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2021-2030 presents the trends driving food and agricultural markets over the coming decade. While progress is expected on many important fronts, in order to realize the 2030 Agenda and achieve the sustainable development goals (SDGs), concerted actions and additional improvements will be needed by the agricultural sector.More information can be found at www.agri-outlook.org .
eBook