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Wildfires in boreal forests release substantial amounts of carbon into the atmosphere. However, current land-surface models are limited in their representation of fire processes, including their ignition and spread. This study thus developed FireDL, a novel data-driven machine-learning model for the prediction of natural wildfires, and combined it with a land-surface model to better understand the impact of fire on carbon fluxes. FireDL has a two-stage deep learning structure that sequentially combines a long short-term memory (LSTM) algorithm and an artificial neural network (ANN). Preliminary random forest analysis identified fire duration as an important factor in predicting the burned area. Thus, in FireDL, the LSTM algorithm was employed to predict fire occurrence and duration, utilizing lightning, vegetation, and climate datasets. Subsequently, the ANN predicted the total burned area using the LTSM-derived fire duration predictions and climate datasets as input. FireDL produced a robust performance in predicting large fires (>10 000 ha), achieving a correlation coefficient of 0.72. The daily-scaled burned area predictions derived from FireDL were integrated into the Community Land Model version 5—Biogeochemistry (CLM5-BGC) to produce CLM5-BGC-FireDL. This integration considerably improved carbon emission estimations. Notably, the total net ecosystem exchange (NEE) estimated using CLM5-BGC-FireDL in 2019, the year with the highest recorded burned area during our study, was twice that estimated using the standard CLM5-BGC. Discrepancies in the NEE can significantly influence atmospheric CO2 levels, highlighting the importance of our fire prediction model in forecasting the burned area and carbon emissions. The use of FireDL with future climate scenarios is thus anticipated to yield valuable insights into ecosystem management and climate change mitigation strategies.

Arctic warming has increased vegetation growth and soil respiration during recent decades. The rate of Arctic warming will likely amplify over the 21st century. Previous studies have revealed that the most severe Arctic warming occurred during the cold season (September to May). The cold-season warming has posited significant CO2 emissions to the atmosphere via respiration, possibly offsetting warm-season (June to August) net CO2 uptake. However, prevailing Earth system land models poorly represent cold-season CO2 emissions, making estimates of Arctic tundra annual CO2 budgets highly uncertain. Here, we demonstrate that an improved version of the energy exascale Earth system model (E3SM) land model (ELMv1-ECA) captures the large amount of cold-season CO2 emissions over Alaskan Arctic tundra as reported by two independent, observationally-constrained datasets. We found that the recent seven-decades warming trend of cold-season soil temperature is three times that of the warm-season. The climate sensitivity of warm-season net CO2 uptake, however, is threefold higher than for the cold-season net CO2 loss, mainly due to stronger plant resilience than microbial resilience to hydroclimatic extremes. Consequently, the modeled warm-season net CO2 uptake has a larger positive trend (0.74 ± 0.14 gC m−2 yr−1) than that of cold-season CO2 emissions (0.64 ± 0.11 gC m−2 yr−1) from 1950 to 2017, supported by enhanced plant nutrient uptake and increased light- and water-use efficiency. With continued warming and elevated CO2 concentrations under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario, the increasing rate of warm-season net CO2 uptake is more than twice the rate of cold-season emissions (1.33 ± 0.32 gC m−2 yr−1 vs 0.50 ± 0.12 gC m−2 yr−1), making the modeled Alaskan Arctic tundra ecosystem a net CO2 sink by 2100. However, other geomorphological and ecological disturbances (e.g. abrupt permafrost thaw, thermokarst development, landscape-scale hydrological changes, wildfire, and insects) that are not considered here might alter our conclusion.

Wildland fires exert substantial impacts on tundra ecosystems of the high northern latitudes (HNL), ranging from biogeochemical impact on climate system to habitat suitability for various species. Cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning is the primary ignition source of wildfires. It is critical to understand mechanisms and factors driving lightning strikes in this cold, treeless environment to support operational modeling and forecasting of fire activity. Existing studies on lightning strikes primarily focus on Alaskan and Canadian boreal forests where land-atmospheric interactions are different and, thus, not likely to represent tundra conditions. In this study, we designed an empirical-dynamical method integrating Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) simulation and machine learning algorithm to model the probability of lightning strikes across Alaskan tundra between 2001 and 2017. We recommended using Thompson 2-moment and Mellor-Yamada-Janjic schemes as microphysics and planetary boundary layer parameterizations for WRF simulations in the tundra. Our modeling and forecasting test results have shown a strong capability to predict CG lightning probability in Alaskan tundra, with the values of area under the receiver operator characteristics curves above 0.9. We found that parcel lifted index and vertical profiles of atmospheric variables, including geopotential height, dew point temperature, relative humidity, and velocity speed, important in predicting lightning occurrence, suggesting the key role of convection in lightning formation in the tundra. Our method can be applied to data-scarce regions and support future studies of fire potential in the HNL.