Explore the vast range of titles available.

Surface wind trends and variability over Antarctica and the Southern Ocean and their implications to wind energy in the region are analyzed using the gridded ERA-Interim reanalysis data between 1979 and 2017 and the Self-Organizing Map (SOM) technique. In general, surface winds are stronger over the coastal regions of East Antarctica and the Transantarctic Mountains and weaker over the Ross and Ronne ice shelves and the Antarctic Peninsula; and stronger in winter and weaker in summer. Winds in the southern Indian and Pacific Oceans and along coastal regions exhibit a strong interannual variability that appears to be correlated to the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) index. A significantly positive trend in surface wind speeds is found across most regions and about 20% and 17% of the austral autumn and summer wind trends, respectively, and less than 1% of the winter and spring wind trends may be explained by the trends in the AAO index. Except for the Antarctic Peninsula, Ronne and Ross ice shelves, and small areas in the interior East Antarctica, most of the continent is found to be suitable for the development of wind power.

We report a natural wind cycle, the Antarctic Centennial Wind Oscillation (ACWO), whose properties explain milestones of climate and human civilization, including contemporary global warming. We explored the wind/temperature relationship in Antarctica over the past 226 millennia using dust flux in ice cores from the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica (EPICA) Dome C (EDC) drill site as a wind proxy and stable isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen in ice cores from EDC and ten additional Antarctic drill sites as temperature proxies. The ACWO wind cycle is coupled 1:1 with the temperature cycle of the Antarctic Centennial Oscillation (ACO), the paleoclimate precursor of the contemporary Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), at all eleven drill sites over all time periods evaluated. Such tight coupling suggests that ACWO wind cycles force ACO/AAO temperature cycles. The ACWO is modulated in phase with the millennial-scale Antarctic Isotope Maximum (AIM) temperature cycle. Each AIM cycle encompasses several ACWOs that increase in frequency and amplitude to a Wind Terminus, the last and largest ACWO of every AIM cycle. This historic wind pattern, and the heat and gas exchange it forces with the Southern Ocean (SO), explains climate milestones including the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age. Contemporary global warming is explained by venting of heat and carbon dioxide from the SO forced by the maximal winds of the current positive phase of the ACO/AAO cycle. The largest 20 human civilizations of the past four millennia collapsed during or near the Little Ice Age or its earlier recurrent homologs. The Eddy Cycle of sunspot activity oscillates in phase with the AIM temperature cycle and therefore may force the internal climate cycles documented here. Climate forecasts based on the historic ACWO wind pattern project imminent global cooling and in ~4 centuries a recurrent homolog of the Little Ice Age. Our study provides a theoretically-unified explanation of contemporary global warming and other climate milestones based on natural climate cycles driven by the Sun, confirms a dominant role for climate in shaping human history, invites reconsideration of climate policy, and offers a method to project future climate.

Interannual variations of sea surface temperature (SST) in the midlatitudes of the Southern Hemisphere play an important role in the rainfall variability over the surrounding countries by modulating synoptic-scale atmospheric disturbances. These are frequently associated with a northeast–southwest-oriented dipole of positive and negative SST anomalies in each oceanic basin, referred to as a subtropical dipole. This study investigates the role of tropical SST variability on the generation of subtropical dipoles by conducting SST-nudging experiments using a coupled general circulation model. In the experiments where the simulated SST in each tropical basin is nudged to the climatology of the observed SST, the subtropical dipoles tend to occur as frequently as the case in which the simulated SST is allowed to freely interact with the atmosphere. It is found that without the tropical SST variability, the zonally elongated atmospheric mode in the mid- to high latitudes, called the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), becomes dominant and the stationary Rossby waves related to the AAO induce the sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies in the midlatitudes, which, in turn, generate the subtropical dipoles. These results suggest that the tropical SST variability may not be necessary for generating the subtropical dipoles, and hence provide a useful insight into the important role of the AAO in the midlatitude climate variability.

Between 5 and 8 December 1997, the surface air temperature increased up to 3°C in the interior of West Antarctica, at Patriot Hills (PH), located at about 80°08'S, 81°16ʹ W, at an elevation of 855 m a.s.l. This was about 15°C warmer than the mean air temperature (−12°C) for this location at this time of the year. The ice surface field along the hills used as a runway for large aircraft melted, forming small ponds at the foot of the slope. This warm event was associated with a passing mid-tropospheric ridge that reached the interior of West Antarctica, whose anticyclonic circulation advected warm air towards the PH area. The foehn effect of the descending airflow on the northern slope of PH did not significantly contribute to the warming. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was reaching its mature phase during the last quarter of 1997 and the warming/melting episode may be related to large-scale circulation associated with ENSO occurrence. However, warm events in the interior of West Antarctica may occur during any phase of ENSO. In contrast, the negative phase of the Antarctic Oscillation seems to support the development of the mid-tropospheric ridges that can advect warm maritime air towards the interior of West Antarctica. The 3°C registered at PH may be one of the highest near-surface air temperatures measured below 2500 m a.s.l. in the far interior coastal area of West Antarctica. This suggests a new subregion for determining air temperature records in Antarctica may need to be considered.

While the Southern Ocean (SO) provides the largest oceanic sink of carbon, some observational studies have suggested that the SO total CO.sub.2 (tCO.sub.2) uptake exhibited large (â¼ 0.3 GtC yr.sup.-1) decadal-scale variability over the last 30 years, with a similar SO tCO.sub.2 uptake in 2016 as in the early 1990s. Here, using an eddy-rich ocean, sea-ice, carbon cycle model, with a nominal resolution of 0.1.sup.\", we explore the changes in total, natural and anthropogenic SO CO.sub.2 fluxes over the period 1980-2021 and the processes leading to the CO.sub.2 flux variability. The simulated tCO.sub.2 flux exhibits decadal-scale variability with an amplitude of â¼ 0.1 GtC yr.sup.-1 globally in phase with observations. Notably, two stagnations in tCO.sub.2 uptake are simulated: between 1982 and 2000, and between 2003 and 2011, while re-invigorations are simulated between 2000 and 2003, as well as since 2012. This decadal-scale variability is primarily due to changes in natural CO.sub.2 (nCO.sub.2) fluxes south of the polar front associated with variability in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Positive phases of the SAM, i.e. stronger and poleward shifted southern hemispheric (SH) westerlies, lead to enhanced SO nCO.sub.2 outgassing due to higher surface natural dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) brought about by a combination of Ekman-driven vertical advection and DIC diffusion at the base of the mixed layer. The pattern of the CO.sub.2 flux anomalies indicate a dominant control of the interaction between the mean flow south of the polar front and the main topographic features. While positive phases of the SAM also lead to enhanced anthropogenic CO.sub.2 (aCO.sub.2) uptake south of the polar front, the amplitude of the changes in aCO.sub.2 fluxes is only 25 % of the changes in nCO.sub.2 fluxes. Due to the larger nCO.sub.2 outgassing compared to aCO.sub.2 uptake as the SH westerlies strengthen and shift poleward, the SO tCO.sub.2 uptake capability thus reduced since 1980 in response to the shift towards positive phases of the SAM. Our results indicate that, even in an eddy-rich ocean model, a strengthening and/or poleward shift of the SH westerlies enhance CO.sub.2 outgassing. The projected poleward strengthening of the SH westerlies over the coming century will, thus, reduce the capability of the SO to mitigate the increase in atmospheric CO.sub.2.

This work quantitatively evaluates the fidelity with which the northern annular mode (NAM), southern annular mode (SAM), Pacific–North American pattern (PNA), El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), and the first-order mode interactions are represented in Earth system model (ESM) output from the CMIP6 archive. Several skill metrics are used as part of a differential credibility assessment (DCA) of both spatial and temporal characteristics of the modes across ESMs, ESM families, and specific ESM realizations relative to ERA5. The spatial patterns and probability distributions are generally well represented but skill scores that measure the degree to which the frequencies of maximum variance are captured are consistently lower for most ESMs and climatemodes. Substantial variability in skill scoresmanifests across realizations fromindividual ESMs for the PNA and oceanic modes. Further, the ESMs consistently overestimate the strength of the NAM–PNA first-order interaction and underestimate the NAM–AMO connection. These results suggest that the choice of ESMand ESM realizations will continue to play a critical role in determining climate projections at the global and regional scale at least in the near term. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: Internal climate variability occurs over multiple spatial and temporal scales and is encapsulated in a series of internal climate modes. The representation of such modes in climate models is a critically important aspect of model fidelity. Analyses presented herein uses several skill scores to evaluate both the spatial and temporal manifestations of these climate modes in the CMIP6 generation of Earth system models (ESMs). There is marked variability in model fidelity for these modes and this variability in credibility within the current climate has important implications for the choice of specific ESMs and ESM realizations in making climate projections.

The adequate simulation of internal climate variability is key for our understanding of climate as it underpins efforts to attribute historical events, predict on seasonal and decadal time scales, and isolate the effects of climate change. Here the skill of models in reproducing observed modes of climate variability is assessed, both across and within the CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 archives, in order to document model capabilities, progress across ensembles, and persisting biases. A focus is given to the well-observed tropical and extratropical modes that exhibit small intrinsic variability relative to model structural uncertainty. These include El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the northern and southern annular modes (NAM and SAM). Significant improvements are identified in models’ representation of many modes. Canonical biases, which involve both amplitudes and patterns, are generally reduced across model generations. For example, biases in ENSO-related equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature, which extend too far westward, and associated atmospheric teleconnections, which are too weak, are reduced. Stronger tropical expression of the PDO in successive CMIP generations has characterized their improvement, with some CMIP6 models generating patterns that lie within the range of observed estimates. For the NAO, NAM, and SAM, pattern correlations with observations are generally higher than for other modes and slight improvements are identified across successive model generations. For ENSO and PDO spectra and extratropical modes, changes are small compared to internal variability, precluding definitive statements regarding improvement.

Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) supplies the lower limb of the global overturning circulation, ventilates the abyssal ocean and sequesters heat and carbon on multidecadal to millennial timescales. AABW originates on the Antarctic continental shelf, where strong winter cooling and brine released during sea ice formation produce Dense Shelf Water, which sinks to the deep ocean. The salinity, density and volume of AABW have decreased over the last 50 years, with the most marked changes observed in the Ross Sea. These changes have been attributed to increased melting of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Here we use in situ observations to document a recovery in the salinity, density and thickness (that is, depth range) of AABW formed in the Ross Sea, with properties in 2018–2019 similar to those observed in the 1990s. The recovery was caused by increased sea ice formation on the continental shelf. Increased sea ice formation was triggered by anomalous wind forcing associated with the unusual combination of positive Southern Annular Mode and extreme El Niño conditions between 2015 and 2018. Our study highlights the sensitivity of AABW formation to remote forcing and shows that climate anomalies can drive episodic increases in local sea ice formation that counter the tendency for increased ice-sheet melt to reduce AABW formation.Interacting atmospheric circulation patterns are responsible for a recent reversal of a decades-long decline in deepwater formation on the Antarctic shelf, according to an analysis of in situ and remote sensing data from the Ross Sea.

This study offers an overview of the low-frequency (i.e., monthly to seasonal) evolution, dynamics, predictability, and surface impacts of a rare Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratospheric warming that occurred in austral spring 2019. Between late August and mid-September 2019, the stratospheric circumpolar westerly jet weakened rapidly, and Antarctic stratospheric temperatures rose dramatically. The deceleration of the vortex at 10 hPa was as drastic as that of the first-ever-observed major sudden stratospheric warming in the SH during 2002, while the mean Antarctic warming over the course of spring 2019 broke the previous record of 2002 by ~50% in the midstratosphere. This event was preceded by a poleward shift of the SH polar night jet in the uppermost stratosphere in early winter, which was then followed by record-strong planetary wave-1 activity propagating upward from the troposphere in August that acted to dramatically weaken the polar vortex throughout the depth of the stratosphere. The weakened vortex winds and elevated temperatures moved downward to the surface from mid-October to December, promoting a record strong swing of the southern annular mode (SAM) to its negative phase. This record-negative SAM appeared to be a primary driver of the extreme hot and dry conditions over subtropical eastern Australia that accompanied the severe wildfires that occurred in late spring 2019. State-of-the-art dynamical seasonal forecast systems skillfully predicted the significant vortex weakening of spring 2019 and subsequent development of negative SAM from as early as late July.

We compare the performance of several modes of variability across six U.S. climate modeling groups, with a focus on identifying robust improvements in recent models [including those participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)] compared to previous versions. In particular, we examine the representation of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the tropical stratosphere, and the dominant modes of extratropical variability, including the southern annular mode (SAM), the northern annular mode (NAM) [and the closely related North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)], and the Pacific–North American pattern (PNA). Where feasible, we explore the processes driving these improvements through the use of “intermediary” experiments that utilize model versions between CMIP3/5 and CMIP6 as well as targeted sensitivity experiments in which individual modeling parameters are altered. We find clear and systematic improvements in the MJO and QBO and in the teleconnection patterns associated with the PDO and ENSO. Some gains arise from better process representation, while others (e.g., the QBO) from higher resolution that allows for a greater range of interactions. Our results demonstrate that the incremental development processes in multiple climate model groups lead to more realistic simulations over time.