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Ocean-driven basal melting of Antarctica’s floating ice shelves accounts for about half of their mass loss in steady state, where gains in ice-shelf mass are balanced by losses. Ice-shelf thickness changes driven by varying basal melt rates modulate mass loss from the grounded ice sheet and its contribution to sea level, and the changing meltwater fluxes influence climate processes in the Southern Ocean. Existing continent-wide melt-rate datasets have no temporal variability, introducing uncertainties in sea level and climate projections. Here, we combine surface height data from satellite radar altimeters with satellite-derived ice velocities and a new model of firn-layer evolution to generate a high-resolution map of time-averaged (2010–2018) basal melt rates and time series (1994–2018) of meltwater fluxes for most ice shelves. Total basal meltwater flux in 1994 (1,090 ± 150 Gt yr–1) was similar to the steady-state value (1,100 ± 60 Gt yr–1), but increased to 1,570 ± 140 Gt yr–1 in 2009, followed by a decline to 1,160 ± 150 Gt yr–1 in 2018. For the four largest ‘cold-water’ ice shelves, we partition meltwater fluxes into deep and shallow sources to reveal distinct signatures of temporal variability, providing insights into climate forcing of basal melting and the impact of this melting on the Southern Ocean.Meltwater entering the Southern Ocean from Antarctic ice shelves varies substantially from year to year, with consequences for Southern Ocean circulation and climate, according to remote sensing estimates of ice-shelf basal melting rates.

Different stories are unfolding at the two poles of our planet. In the Arctic, more than half of the summer sea ice has disappeared since the late 1970s1. The steady decline is what global climate models predict for a warming world2. Meanwhile, in Antarctic waters, sea-ice cover has been stable, and even increasing, for decades3. Record maxima were recorded in 2012, 2013 and 2014 (ref. 4).

Atmospheric warming threatens to accelerate the retreat of the Antarctic Ice Sheet by increasing surface melting and facilitating ‘hydrofracturing’ 1 – 7 , where meltwater flows into and enlarges fractures, potentially triggering ice-shelf collapse 3 – 5 , 8 – 10 . The collapse of ice shelves that buttress 11 – 13 the ice sheet accelerates ice flow and sea-level rise 14 – 16 . However, we do not know if and how much of the buttressing regions of Antarctica’s ice shelves are vulnerable to hydrofracture if inundated with water. Here we provide two lines of evidence suggesting that many buttressing regions are vulnerable. First, we trained a deep convolutional neural network (DCNN) to map the surface expressions of fractures in satellite imagery across all Antarctic ice shelves. Second, we developed a stability diagram of fractures based on linear elastic fracture mechanics to predict where basal and dry surface fractures form under current stress conditions. We find close agreement between the theoretical prediction and the DCNN-mapped fractures, despite limitations associated with detecting fractures in satellite imagery. Finally, we used linear elastic fracture mechanics theory to predict where surface fractures would become unstable if filled with water. Many regions regularly inundated with meltwater today are resilient to hydrofracture—stresses are low enough that all water-filled fractures are stable. Conversely, 60 ± 10 per cent of ice shelves (by area) both buttress upstream ice and are vulnerable to hydrofracture if inundated with water. The DCNN map confirms the presence of fractures in these buttressing regions. Increased surface melting 17 could trigger hydrofracturing if it leads to water inundating the widespread vulnerable regions we identify. These regions are where atmospheric warming may have the largest impact on ice-sheet mass balance. Using a neural network trained on continent-wide data and a fracture model, the ice shelves in Antarctica that may be prone to hydrofracturing under further atmospheric warming are identified.

Mass loss of the Antarctic Ice Sheet has been driven primarily by the thinning of the floating ice shelves that fringe the ice sheet 1 , reducing their buttressing potential and causing land ice to accelerate into the ocean 2 . Observations of ice-shelf thickness change by satellite altimetry stretch back only to 1992 (refs.  1 , 3 – 5 ) and previous information about thinning remains unquantified. However, extending the record of ice-shelf thickness change is possible by proxy, by measuring the change in area of the surface expression of pinning points—local bathymetric highs on which ice shelves are anchored 6 . Here we measure pinning-point change over three epochs spanning the periods 1973–1989, 1989–2000 and 2000−2022, and thus by proxy infer changes to ice-shelf thickness back to 1973–1989. We show that only small localized pockets of ice shelves were thinning between 1973 and 1989, located primarily in the Amundsen Sea Embayment and the Wilkes Land coastline. Ice-shelf thinning spreads rapidly into the 1990s and 2000s and is best characterized by the proportion of pinning points reducing in extent. Only 15% of pinning points reduced from 1973 to 1989, before increasing to 25% from 1989 to 2000 and 37% from 2000 to 2022. A continuation of this trend would further reduce the buttressing potential of ice shelves, enhancing ice discharge and accelerating the contribution of Antarctica to sea-level rise. Pinning-point changes over three epochs spanning the periods 1973–1989, 1989–2000 and 2000−2022 were measured, and by proxy the changes to ice-shelf thickness back to 1973–1989 were inferred.

Warm water of open ocean origin on the continental shelf of the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas causes the highest basal melt rates reported for Antarctic ice shelves with severe consequences for the ice shelf/ice sheet dynamics. Ice shelves fringing the broad continental shelf in theWeddell and Ross Seas melt at rates orders ofmagnitude smaller. However, simulations using coupled ice–ocean models forced with the atmospheric output of the HadCM3 SRES-A1B scenario run (CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere reaches 700 ppmv by the year 2100 and stays at that level for an additional 100 years) show that the circulation in the southern Weddell Sea changes during the twenty-first century. Derivatives of Circumpolar Deep Water are directed southward underneath the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf, warming the cavity and dramatically increasing basal melting. To find out whether the open ocean will always continue to power the melting, the authors extend their simulations, applying twentieth-century atmospheric forcing, both alone and together with prescribed basal mass flux at the end of (or during) the SRES-A1B scenario run. The results identify a tipping point in the southern Weddell Sea: once warm water flushes the ice shelf cavity a positive meltwater feedback enhances the shelf circulation and the onshore transport of open ocean heat. The process is irreversible with a recurrence to twentieth-century atmospheric forcing and can only be halted through prescribing a return to twentieth-century basal melt rates. This finding might have strong implications for the stability of the Antarctic ice sheet.

Basal melting of Antarctic ice shelves is expected to increase during the twenty-first century as the ocean warms, which will have consequences for ice sheet stability and global sea level rise. Here we present future projections of Antarctic ice shelf melting using the Finite Element Sea Ice/Ice-Shelf Ocean Model (FESOM) forced with atmospheric output from models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). CMIP5 models are chosen based on their agreement with historical atmospheric reanalyses over the Southern Ocean; the best-performing models are ACCESS 1.0 and the CMIP5 multimodel mean. Their output is bias-corrected for the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. During the twenty-first-century simulations, total ice shelf basal mass loss increases by between 41% and 129%. Every sector of Antarctica shows increased basal melting in every scenario, with the largest increases occurring in the Amundsen Sea. The main mechanism driving this melting is an increase in warm Circumpolar Deep Water on the Antarctic continental shelf. A reduction in wintertime sea ice formation simulated during the twenty-first century stratifies the water column, allowing a warm bottom layer to develop and intrude into ice shelf cavities. This effect may be overestimated in the Amundsen Sea because of a cold bias in the present-day simulation. Other consequences of weakened sea ice formation include freshening of High Salinity Shelf Water and warming of Antarctic Bottom Water. Furthermore, freshening around the Antarctic coast in our simulations causes the Antarctic Circumpolar Current to weaken and the Antarctic Coastal Current to strengthen.

Early to Middle Miocene sea-level oscillations of approximately 40–60 m estimated from far-field records 1 – 3 are interpreted to reflect the loss of virtually all East Antarctic ice during peak warmth 2 . This contrasts with ice-sheet model experiments suggesting most terrestrial ice in East Antarctica was retained even during the warmest intervals of the Middle Miocene 4 , 5 . Data and model outputs can be reconciled if a large West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) existed and expanded across most of the outer continental shelf during the Early Miocene, accounting for maximum ice-sheet volumes. Here we provide the earliest geological evidence proving large WAIS expansions occurred during the Early Miocene (~17.72–17.40 Ma). Geochemical and petrographic data show glacimarine sediments recovered at International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Site U1521 in the central Ross Sea derive from West Antarctica, requiring the presence of a WAIS covering most of the Ross Sea continental shelf. Seismic, lithological and palynological data reveal the intermittent proximity of grounded ice to Site U1521. The erosion rate calculated from this sediment package greatly exceeds the long-term mean, implying rapid erosion of West Antarctica. This interval therefore captures a key step in the genesis of a marine-based WAIS and a tipping point in Antarctic ice-sheet evolution. Variations in Miocene sea level can be explained by a large marine-based West Antarctic Ice Sheet.

Understanding the drivers of surface melting in West Antarctica is crucial for understanding future ice loss and global sea level rise. This study identifies atmospheric drivers of surface melt on West Antarctic ice shelves and ice sheet margins and relationships with tropical Pacific and high-latitude climate forcing using multidecadal reanalysis and satellite datasets. Physical drivers of ice melt are diagnosed by comparing satellite-observed melt patterns to anomalies of reanalysis near-surface air temperature, winds, and satellite-derived cloud cover, radiative fluxes, and sea ice concentration based on an Antarctic summer synoptic climatology spanning 1979–2017. Summer warming in West Antarctica is favored by Amundsen Sea (AS) blocking activity and a negative phase of the southern annular mode (SAM), which both correlate with El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Extensive melt events on the Ross–Amundsen sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) are linked to persistent, intense AS blocking anticyclones, which force intrusions of marine air over the ice sheet. Surface melting is primarily driven by enhanced downwelling longwave radiation from clouds and a warm, moist atmosphere and by turbulent mixing of sensible heat to the surface by föhn winds. Since the late 1990s, concurrent with ocean-driven WAIS mass loss, summer surface melt occurrence has increased from the Amundsen Sea Embayment to the eastern Ross Ice Shelf. We link this change to increasing anticyclonic advection of marine air into West Antarctica, amplified by increasing air–sea fluxes associated with declining sea ice concentration in the coastal Ross–Amundsen Seas.

Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between -7:8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica ass change varies between -6.1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display limited mass gain in East Antarctica.

It has been argued that the −5 °C annual mean 2 m air temperature isotherm defines a limit of ice shelf viability on the Antarctic Peninsula as melt ponding increases at higher temperatures. It is, however, presently unknown whether this threshold can also be applied to other Antarctic ice shelves. Here we use two present-day and three future high-resolution Antarctic climate simulations to predict warming thresholds for Antarctic ice shelf melt pond formation on the basis of the melt-over-accumulation ratio. The associated warming thresholds match well with observed melt pond volumes and are found to be spatially highly variable and controlled by snow accumulation. For relatively wet ice shelves, the −5 °C temperature threshold was confirmed; but cold and dry ice shelves such as Amery, Ross and Filchner-Ronne are more vulnerable than previously thought, with threshold temperatures well below −15 °C. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models predict that towards the end of this century these thresholds can be reached on many ice shelves, even on cold ice shelves and under moderate warming scenarios.Melt ponding is an important process for the stability of ice shelves. Here the authors estimate the temperature thresholds at which melt ponding emerges over Antarctic ice shelves and find that cold and dry ice shelves are more vulnerable to melt ponding than expected.