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Although conflict-affected populations are often exposed to and severely impacted by disasters, little is known about their perceptions and practices concerning early warning and early action (EWEA) or how EWEA strategies can protect communities affected by conflict- and climate-related disasters. This is particularly problematic as, due to the multiple challenges posed by conflict and compound crises in these contexts, early warnings of weather hazards do not often translate in early actions. This comprehensive literature review examined 384 peer reviewed papers produced between 2004 and 2022, focused on the 20 countries most affected by non-international armed conflict and exposed to climate hazards. This paper answers the question : what is the state of knowledge of EWEA for climate hazards in countries affected by armed conflict and high levels of forced displacement? Findings demonstrate that most research focuses on climate science rather than social science across six elements of the EWEA value chain: 1. hazards analysis, 2. understanding vulnerability and exposure, 3. warning communication and dissemination, 4. forecasting availability and monitoring, 5. early action planning, and 6. financing systems. In total, 75.65% of the research studies focused on hazard analysis, forecast availability, and monitoring. There has been a strong increase in academic research on EWEA in conflict-affected countries since 2004. However, we identify that most of this research has been in Ethiopia, Pakistan, and Nigeria which, although severely affected by conflict, also have a higher level of economic development and stability. In contrast, there is little research focused on EWEA in most of the remaining countries. Across all thematic areas, there is a lack of consideration of conflict dynamics in EWEA research. This paper contributes to evidence on the need to recognize people affected by conflict in disaster risk reduction, as called for in the Sendai Framework for Action midterm review, with the aim of enhancing EWEA investments to enable tailored approaches appropriate for conflict-affected states.

Climate change, the deterioration of the environment and exceeding Earth’s carrying capacity are major threats in operating environment which require new actions in industrialized and digitalized society. In parallel with the global deployment of 5th generation (5G) mobile communication networks, the telecommunication community has already started to envision 6G networks that target the year 2030. This paper discusses the unprecedented opportunities in the future 6G ecosystem specifically from the business perspective and applies a futures-oriented scenario planning method utilized in two strategy workshops in 2020. The paper portrays four scenario themes and a total of 16 alternative future scenarios for the business of 6G. Through the identification of key trends, their interactions, and related uncertainties, the scenario development process generates alternative futures where 6G business strategies are then developed and assessed through the business model perspective. Scenarios were created under four themes: user experience, business, sustainability, and geopolitics and they are discussed in terms of economical, societal, and environmental perspectives. The findings of the paper highlight the achievement of a preferred sustainable future that calls for attention to the privacy and security aspects considering business and regulatory needs: public/governmental, corporate, community, and human perspectives and aims of governance; ecosystem configuration related to users, decentralized business models, and platforms; user empowerment; and the role of service location-specificity. The findings indicate that it is vital to bring together relevant stakeholders to solve sustainability problems within the ecosystem and pay special attention to open ecosystem-focused value configuration and decentralized poly-nodal power configuration, while responding to the diversified demands of various users across the different verticals.

Compared to prolonged seasonal droughts, impactful within-season agrometeorologically relevant dry spells of a relatively shorter duration that lie within the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescale can have significant negative impacts on agriculture and pose severe threats to food security, particularly in agro-based economies such as those in Southern Africa. This study assesses the skill of the ECMWF ensemble subseasonal forecasting system in predicting these impactful events during the austral summer maize growing season (October to March, ONDJFM). We utilise two definitions of agrometeorologically relevant dry spells: (1) a generic index based on accumulated daily precipitation falling below optimal thresholds for the maize crop across the broader Southern Africa domain, and (2) case-specific events where a crop yield proxy derived over Zimbabwe’s primary maize-growing region falls below critical thresholds. Our findings reveal that predictive skill for the generic index declines with longer lead times but remains higher during the OND sub-season compared to JFM. Furthermore, the ECMWF subseasonal forecasting system demonstrates predictive skill for these events with a 10-to-30-day lead-time, particularly in northern Zimbabwe, central Zambia, Malawi, and northern Mozambique. For the case-specific events, findings reveal that prediction accuracy is conditioned by the model’s ability to simulate key atmospheric circulation patterns that modulate such extreme events. Overall, these results underscore the potential of the ECMWF subseasonal forecasting system to improve drought early warning systems and support anticipatory action initiatives that are still in their infancy in Southern Africa.

This perspective traces the emergence and evolution of early warning systems (EWS) and anticipatory action (AA). It revisits how major disasters, advances in science and forecasting, and global policy frameworks progressively expanded the ambition of EWS—from hazard-centered monitoring to more impact-based, people-centered approaches—while exposing persistent gaps in communication, local capacity, financing, and political will that prevented warnings from reliably triggering timely action. We examine how AA emerged in the humanitarian sector from these shortcomings as an operational bridge between long-term risk reduction and disaster response using risk information to enable pre-agreed, financed early actions, reviewing evidence that anticipatory interventions can improve food security, protect assets and livelihoods, enhance dignity and agency, and strengthen coordination in humanitarian contexts. Despite having the same goal of protecting the lives and livelihoods of at-risk populations, AA and EWS investments remain fragmented, and they struggle in fragile, data-poor, and conflict-affected settings. Drawing on this history and evidence, we argue that efforts to strengthen EWS and AA must be coherent and mutually reinforcing, building on the broader work on disaster risk reduction and climate-resilient development. The paper outlines concrete action points: align investments across EWS and AA; link government-led and humanitarian mechanisms wherever possible; strengthen inclusive, locally grounded partnerships; level up regional hydrometeorological and climate service capabilities; and institutionalize accountability and learning at scale. By acting on these priorities, practitioners and policymakers can move from pilots and parallel initiatives toward integrated systems that consistently enable people to act ahead of crises. The paper aims to address the following research question: From a humanitarian perspective, how have early warning systems and anticipatory action evolved in theory and praxis over the last three decades?

The 2020 monsoon floods in Bangladesh were among the most severe and protracted in decades. Instead of waiting for disaster to strike, the Bangladesh Red Crescent Society used impact-based forecast data to reach nearly 3,800 vulnerable households along the Jamuna River with a one-off unconditional cash transfer of BDT 4,500 (about $53) before peak flooding in July 2020. Anticipatory action to help at-risk populations avoid or mitigate extreme weather event impacts has become widely used by governments and humanitarian organisations worldwide. However, robust evaluations of the effectiveness of forecast-based assistance are limited. This assessment follows a quasi-experimental approach, drawing on survey data from a sample of cash recipients and equally vulnerable and flood-affected households that were not reached by BDRCS before the flood. Our analysis finds robust statistical evidence that the intervention was effective in helping households evacuate the flood-affected area, protecting personal health and well-being, and safeguarding people's productive assets and livestock. It was also effective in enabling beneficiaries to avoid taking on high-interest loans and selling valuable assets during and after the flood. The intervention does not appear to have helped cash recipients avoid food-based coping mechanisms or regain their productive capacity sooner after the flood.

International humanitarian organisations increasingly turn to forecast teams to support the coordination of efforts to respond to disasters caused by hazards such as tropical cyclones and large‐scale fluvial floods. Such disasters often occur where there is limited local capacity or information available to support decision making and so global forecasting capacity is utilised to provide impact‐based flood forecast bulletins. A multidisciplinary team joined together to provide forecast bulletins and expertise for such events through the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Development Office (FCDO). This paper captures the successes and challenges from two cyclones: Hurricane Iota in Central America (November 2020) and Cyclone Eloise in Mozambique (January 2021). Recommendations to improve global forecasting systems are made which will benefit the international community of researchers and practitioners involved in disaster prediction, anticipatory action and response. These include the need for additional data and expertise to support the interpretation of global models, clear documentation to support decision makers faced with multiple sources of information, and the development of user relevant metrics to assess the skill of global models. We discuss the value of effective partnerships and improving synergies between global models and local contexts, highlighting how global forecasting can help build local forecasting capability.

The brain plans an anticipatory action for performing tasks successfully and effortlessly even if there are multiple possible options. There is increasing evidence that, when multiple actions are possible, the brain considers two factors when planning an anticipatory action—the probabilistic value and the action cost for each potential action. When the action involves maintaining upright balance, such as standing, stepping, or walking, the action cost for maintaining postural stability could be considered dominantly. We addressed this issue by using a “go-before-you-know” task to step onto a target on the floor. In this task, two potential targets were located on the medial or lateral side of the stepping foot, and the true target was cued only after participants shifted their loads to leave that foot. Participants initiated their stepping actions without knowing which of the potential targets would be the true one. The results showed that, for the majority of participants, lateral displacements of the center of pressure (COP) with two potential targets were similar to those when a single target exists on the individual’s medial side. Given that mediolateral postural stability became more destabilized with stepping onto the medial target than stepping onto the lateral target, they were likely to plan their mediolateral components of the postural adjustments for the worst-case scenario (i.e., falling). Additionally, posterior COP movements with two potential targets became smaller than those with a single target, suggesting an effort to create extra time to determine the true target and to adjust the swing foot. Based on these findings, we concluded that action costs for maintaining postural stability were considered dominantly for planning an anticipatory action to accomplish a stepping task successfully while ensuring upright balance.

Humanitarian action and disaster risk reduction are essential in addressing global vulnerability to disasters and crises. The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 (SFDRR), adopted in 2015, has garnered significant attention for its role in fostering disaster risk reduction. The role the SFDRR plays vis-à-vis humanitarian action represents a crucial space where policies, practices, and priorities (could) converge and diverge. Understanding the dynamics of this SFDRR-humanitarian action relationship is essential for advancing both disaster risk reduction and humanitarian goals. This article comprehensively examines this relationship since the adoption of the SFDRR. Employing a multimethod approach, including a systematic literature review, mapping exercise, and expert interviews, the study identified key themes and challenges in integrating the SFDRR within humanitarian action. Findings indicate that while SFDRR references are prevalent in post-disaster discussions, their full integration into humanitarian strategies remains nascent. Notably, advancements in anticipatory humanitarian action represent primary arenas for SFDRR integration within humanitarianism. The role of the International Disaster Response Law in bridging SFDRR and humanitarianism also emerged as an important finding. The study also underscored blurred distinctions between humanitarianism and disaster-related actions, highlighting the limited systemic integration of the SFDRR by traditional humanitarian actors. Moving forward, the study advocates for improved collaboration between humanitarian and disaster management sectors to strengthen disaster prevention, response, and mitigation. By examining the relationship between SFDRR objectives and modern humanitarian practices, this research aims to enhance disaster preparedness, response, and recovery strategies, alongside other crisis management approaches.

This article explores the recent history of early warning systems in Kenya, determining key features of the entangled political, technical and conceptual processes that prefigure contemporary drought management there. In doing so, it draws out wider implications regarding drought and anticipatory action across Africa’s drylands, considering the friction between the dynamics of disaster risk management that structure formal early warning systems and those that shape pastoralist engagements with the volatile and uncertain worlds they inhabit. Surveying recent literature on pastoralism’s unique relationship with uncertainty, and associated forms of networked, relational resilience, it reflects on some of the inherent limitations of current approaches to “local knowledge” in the humanitarian sphere. In doing so, it emphasises the need for new, creative approaches to early warning and anticipatory action, which are not merely established via the external synthesis of data but are rather oriented around local pastoralist drought preparation and mitigation strategies and comprise enough flexibility to adapt to a fast-shifting terrain of challenges and possibilities.

Across the world, communities face annual and increasingly extreme flood events, yet there is a widespread lack of proactive preparedness. This failure to anticipate and mitigate flood risks deepens the damages experienced, stalling development, undermining environmental sustainability, and driving many communities deeper into poverty. Anticipatory action has emerged as a proactive strategy in river flood risk management, aiming to reduce vulnerabilities and enhance community resilience before disasters strike. This study assesses the implementation of anticipatory action strategies in Nigeria by building on qualitative data to assess community vulnerabilities and capacities. Findings indicate that over 70% of the total number of respondents in the selected nine communities in Nigeria lacked access to timely early warnings, and more than half viewed floods as unavoidable, reducing their engagement in long‐term resilience planning. Communities demonstrated a stronger preference for short‐term relief over proactive preparedness for disasters. Findings reveal a convergence of structural and behavioral vulnerabilities within the population. This highlights the study's contribution by connecting behavioral insights with anticipatory frameworks in high‐risk communities. The study shows that there is a clear need for community‐driven approaches that combine anticipatory action with economic support, sustained engagement, and other adaptive measures. By closing both behavioral and structural gaps, more effective anticipatory action policies can be institutionalized.