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Although most mutations in the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) genome are expected to be either deleterious and swiftly purged or relatively neutral, a small proportion will affect functional properties and may alter infectivity, disease severity or interactions with host immunity. The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in late 2019 was followed by a period of relative evolutionary stasis lasting about 11 months. Since late 2020, however, SARS-CoV-2 evolution has been characterized by the emergence of sets of mutations, in the context of ‘variants of concern’, that impact virus characteristics, including transmissibility and antigenicity, probably in response to the changing immune profile of the human population. There is emerging evidence of reduced neutralization of some SARS-CoV-2 variants by postvaccination serum; however, a greater understanding of correlates of protection is required to evaluate how this may impact vaccine effectiveness. Nonetheless, manufacturers are preparing platforms for a possible update of vaccine sequences, and it is crucial that surveillance of genetic and antigenic changes in the global virus population is done alongside experiments to elucidate the phenotypic impacts of mutations. In this Review, we summarize the literature on mutations of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, the primary antigen, focusing on their impacts on antigenicity and contextualizing them in the protein structure, and discuss them in the context of observed mutation frequencies in global sequence datasets.The evolution of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been characterized by the emergence of mutations and so-called variants of concern that impact virus characteristics, including transmissibility and antigenicity. In this Review, members of the COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium and colleagues summarize mutations of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, focusing on their impacts on antigenicity and contextualizing them in the protein structure, and discuss them in the context of observed mutation frequencies in global sequence datasets.

We introduce the antibody landscape, a method for the quantitative analysis of antibodymediated immunity to antigenically variable pathogens, achieved by accounting for antigenic variation among pathogen strains. We generated antibody landscapes to study immune profiles covering 43 years of influenza A/H3N2 virus evolution for 69 individuals monitored for infection over 6 years and for 225 individuals pre- and postvaccination. Upon infection and vaccination, titers increased broadly, including previously encountered viruses far beyond the extent of cross-reactivity observed after a primary infection. We explored implications for vaccination and found that the use of an antigenically advanced virus had the dual benefit of inducing antibodies against both advanced and previous antigenic clusters. These results indicate that preemptive vaccine updates may improve influenza vaccine efficacy in previously exposed individuals.

Influenza B virus primarily infects humans, causing seasonal epidemics globally. Two antigenic variants—Victoria-like and Yamagata-like—were detected in the 1980s, of which the molecular basis of emergence is still incompletely understood. Here, the antigenic properties of a unique collection of historical virus isolates, sampled from 1962 to 2000 and passaged exclusively in mammalian cells to preserve antigenic properties, were determined with the hemagglutination inhibition assay and an antigenic map was built to quantify and visualize the divergence of the lineages. The antigenic map revealed only three distinct antigenic clusters—Early, Victoria, and Yamagata—with relatively little antigenic diversity in each cluster until 2000. Viruses with Victoria-like antigenic properties emerged around 1972 and diversified subsequently into two genetic lineages. Viruses with Yamagata-like antigenic properties evolved from one lineage and became clearly antigenically distinct from the Victoria-like viruses around 1988. Recombinant mutant viruses were tested to show that insertions and deletions (indels), as observed frequently in influenza B virus hemagglutinin, had little effect on antigenic properties. In contrast, amino-acid substitutions at positions 148, 149, 150, and 203, adjacent to the hemagglutinin receptor binding site, determined the main antigenic differences between the Early, Victoria-like, and Yamagata-like viruses. Surprisingly, substitutions at two of the four positions reverted in recent viruses of the Victoria lineage, resulting in antigenic properties similar to viruses circulating ∼50 y earlier. These data shed light on the antigenic diversification of influenza viruses and suggest there may be limits to the antigenic evolution of influenza B virus.

Many evolutionarily distant pathogenic organisms have evolved similar survival strategies to evade the immune responses of their hosts. These include antigenic variation, through which an infecting organism prevents clearance by periodically altering the identity of proteins that are visible to the immune system of the host 1 . Antigenic variation requires large reservoirs of immunologically diverse antigen genes, which are often generated through homologous recombination, as well as mechanisms to ensure the expression of one or very few antigens at any given time. Both homologous recombination and gene expression are affected by three-dimensional genome architecture and local DNA accessibility 2 , 3 . Factors that link three-dimensional genome architecture, local chromatin conformation and antigenic variation have, to our knowledge, not yet been identified in any organism. One of the major obstacles to studying the role of genome architecture in antigenic variation has been the highly repetitive nature and heterozygosity of antigen-gene arrays, which has precluded complete genome assembly in many pathogens. Here we report the de novo haplotype-specific assembly and scaffolding of the long antigen-gene arrays of the model protozoan parasite Trypanosoma brucei , using long-read sequencing technology and conserved features of chromosome folding 4 . Genome-wide chromosome conformation capture (Hi-C) reveals a distinct partitioning of the genome, with antigen-encoding subtelomeric regions that are folded into distinct, highly compact compartments. In addition, we performed a range of analyses—Hi-C, fluorescence in situ hybridization, assays for transposase-accessible chromatin using sequencing and single-cell RNA sequencing—that showed that deletion of the histone variants H3.V and H4.V increases antigen-gene clustering, DNA accessibility across sites of antigen expression and switching of the expressed antigen isoform, via homologous recombination. Our analyses identify histone variants as a molecular link between global genome architecture, local chromatin conformation and antigenic variation. Long-read sequencing allows the assembly of antigen-gene arrays in Trypanosoma brucei and, coupled with deletion experiments, demonstrates that histone variants act as a molecular link between genome architecture, chromatin conformation and antigen variation.

Human seasonal influenza viruses evolve rapidly, enabling the virus population to evade immunity and reinfect previously infected individuals. Antigenic properties are largely determined by the surface glycoprotein hemagglutinin (HA), and amino acid substitutions at exposed epitope sites in HA mediate loss of recognition by antibodies. Here, we show that antigenic differences measured through serological assay data are well described by a sum of antigenic changes along the path connecting viruses in a phylogenetic tree. This mapping onto the tree allows prediction of antigenicity from HA sequence data alone. The mapping can further be used to make predictions about the makeup of the future A(H3N2) seasonal influenza virus population, and we compare predictions between models with serological and sequence data. To make timely model output readily available, we developed a web browser-based application that visualizes antigenic data on a continuously updated phylogeny.

Antigenic characterization of circulating influenza A virus (IAV) isolates is routinely assessed by using the hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assays for surveillance purposes. It is also used to determine the need for annual influenza vaccine updates as well as for pandemic preparedness. Performing antigenic characterization of IAV on a global scale is confronted with high costs, animal availability, and other practical challenges. Here we present a machine learning model that accurately predicts (normalized) outputs of HI assays involving circulating human IAV H3N2 viruses, using their hemagglutinin subunit 1 (HA1) sequences and associated metadata. Each season, the model learns an updated nonlinear mapping of genetic to antigenic changes using data from past seasons only. The model accurately distinguishes antigenic variants from non-variants and adaptively characterizes seasonal dynamics of HA1 sites having the strongest influence on antigenic change. Antigenic predictions produced by the model can aid influenza surveillance, public health management, and vaccine strain selection activities. This study presents a machine learning model that accurately predicts seasonal antigenic changes of influenza A H3N2 using genetic data. The model’s predictions can aid influenza surveillance, vaccine strain selection, and public health management.

Noroviruses are an important cause of viral gastroenteritis around the world. An obstacle delaying the development of norovirus vaccines is inadequate understanding of the role of norovirus diversity in immunity. Using a population genomics approach, we identified new residues on the viral capsid protein (VP1) from GII.4 noroviruses, the predominant genotype, that appear to be involved in the emergence and antigenic topology of GII.4 variants. Careful monitoring of the substitutions in those residues involved in the diversification and emergence of new viruses could help in the early detection of future novel variants with pandemic potential. Therefore, this novel information on the antigenic diversification could facilitate GII.4 norovirus vaccine design. GII.4 noroviruses are a major cause of acute gastroenteritis. Their dominance has been partially explained by the continuous emergence of antigenically distinct variants. To gain insights into the mechanisms of viral emergence and population dynamics of GII.4 noroviruses, we performed large-scale genomics, structural, and mutational analyses of the viral capsid protein (VP1). GII.4 noroviruses exhibited a periodic replacement of predominant variants with accumulation of amino acid substitutions. Genomic analyses revealed (i) a large proportion (87%) of conserved residues; (ii) variable residues that map on the previously determined antigenic sites; and (iii) variable residues that map outside the antigenic sites. Residues in the third pattern category formed motifs on the surface of VP1, which suggested extensions of previously predicted and new uncharacterized antigenic sites. The role of two motifs (C and G) in the antigenic makeup of the GII.4 capsid protein was confirmed with monoclonal antibodies and carbohydrate blocking assays. Amino acid profiles from antigenic sites (A, C, D, E, and G) correlated with the circulation patterns of GII.4 variants, with three of them (A, C, and G) containing residues (352, 357, 368, and 378) linked with the diversifying selective pressure on the emergence of new GII.4 variants. Notably, the emergence of each variant was followed by stochastic diversification with minimal changes that did not progress toward the next variant. This report provides a methodological framework for antigenic characterization of viruses and expands our understanding of the dynamics of GII.4 noroviruses and could facilitate the design of cross-reactive vaccines. IMPORTANCE Noroviruses are an important cause of viral gastroenteritis around the world. An obstacle delaying the development of norovirus vaccines is inadequate understanding of the role of norovirus diversity in immunity. Using a population genomics approach, we identified new residues on the viral capsid protein (VP1) from GII.4 noroviruses, the predominant genotype, that appear to be involved in the emergence and antigenic topology of GII.4 variants. Careful monitoring of the substitutions in those residues involved in the diversification and emergence of new viruses could help in the early detection of future novel variants with pandemic potential. Therefore, this novel information on the antigenic diversification could facilitate GII.4 norovirus vaccine design.

The emergence of human infection with a novel H7N9 influenza virus in China raises a pandemic concern. Chicken H9N2 viruses provided all six of the novel reassortant’s internal genes. However, it is not fully understood how the prevalence and evolution of these H9N2 chicken viruses facilitated the genesis of the novel H7N9 viruses. Here we show that over more than 10 y of cocirculation of multiple H9N2 genotypes, a genotype (G57) emerged that had changed antigenicity and improved adaptability in chickens. It became predominant in vaccinated farm chickens in China, caused widespread outbreaks in 2010–2013 before the H7N9 viruses emerged in humans, and finally provided all of their internal genes to the novel H7N9 viruses. The prevalence and variation of H9N2 influenza virus in farmed poultry could provide an important early warning of the emergence of novel reassortants with pandemic potential.

Malaria parasites elude eradication attempts both within the human host and across nations. At the individual level, parasites evade the host immune responses through antigenic variation. At the global level, parasites escape drug pressure through single nucleotide variants and gene copy amplification events conferring drug resistance. Despite their importance to global health, the rates at which these genomic alterations emerge have not been determined. We studied the complete genomes of different Plasmodium falciparum clones that had been propagated asexually over one year in the presence and absence of drug pressure. A combination of whole-genome microarray analysis and next-generation deep resequencing (totaling 14 terabases) revealed a stable core genome with only 38 novel single nucleotide variants appearing in seventeen evolved clones (avg. 5.4 per clone). In clones exposed to atovaquone, we found cytochrome b mutations as well as an amplification event encompassing the P. falciparum multidrug resistance associated protein (mrp1) on chromosome 1. We observed 18 large-scale (>1 kb on average) deletions of telomere-proximal regions encoding multigene families, involved in immune evasion (9.5×10(-6) structural variants per base pair per generation). Six of these deletions were associated with chromosomal crossovers generated during mitosis. We found only minor differences in rates between genetically distinct strains and between parasites cultured in the presence or absence of drug. Using these derived mutation rates for P. falciparum (1.0-9.7×10(-9) mutations per base pair per generation), we can now model the frequency at which drug or immune resistance alleles will emerge under a well-defined set of assumptions. Further, the detection of mitotic recombination events in var gene families illustrates how multigene families can arise and change over time in P. falciparum. These results will help improve our understanding of how P. falciparum evolves to evade control efforts within both the individual hosts and large populations.

Clostridioides difficile is the major worldwide cause of antibiotic-associated gastrointestinal infection. A pathogenicity locus (PaLoc) encoding one or two homologous toxins, toxin A (TcdA) and toxin B (TcdB), is essential for C . difficile pathogenicity. However, toxin sequence variation poses major challenges for the development of diagnostic assays, therapeutics, and vaccines. Here, we present a comprehensive phylogenomic analysis of 8,839 C . difficile strains and their toxins including 6,492 genomes that we assembled from the NCBI short read archive. A total of 5,175 tcdA and 8,022 tcdB genes clustered into 7 (A1-A7) and 12 (B1-B12) distinct subtypes, which form the basis of a new method for toxin-based subtyping of C . difficile . We developed a haplotype coloring algorithm to visualize amino acid variation across all toxin sequences, which revealed that TcdB has diversified through extensive homologous recombination throughout its entire sequence, and formed new subtypes through distinct recombination events. In contrast, TcdA varies mainly in the number of repeats in its C-terminal repetitive region, suggesting that recombination-mediated diversification of TcdB provides a selective advantage in C . difficile evolution. The application of toxin subtyping is then validated by classifying 351 C . difficile clinical isolates from Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston, demonstrating its clinical utility. Subtyping partitions TcdB into binary functional and antigenic groups generated by intragenic recombinations, including two distinct cell-rounding phenotypes, whether recognizing frizzled proteins as receptors, and whether it can be efficiently neutralized by monoclonal antibody bezlotoxumab, the only FDA-approved therapeutic antibody. Our analysis also identifies eight universally conserved surface patches across the TcdB structure, representing ideal targets for developing broad-spectrum therapeutics. Finally, we established an open online database (DiffBase) as a central hub for collection and classification of C . difficile toxins, which will help clinicians decide on therapeutic strategies targeting specific toxin variants, and allow researchers to monitor the ongoing evolution and diversification of C . difficile .