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2,151 result(s) for "Applied general equilibrium models"
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Carbon leakages: a general equilibrium view
The effectiveness of unilateral action to curb carbon emissions has been dismissed because of possible \"carbon leakages\", this referring to the rise of emissions in non-participating countries. This paper offers a general equilibrium (GE) exploration of the key mechanisms and factors underlying the size of carbon leakages.We developed a two-region, two-goods simplified GE framework, incorporating three types of fossil fuels (coal, oil and low-carbon energy), international trade and capital mobility. The model was designed to make tractable extensive multidimensional sensitivity analysis. The results suggest that the coal supply elasticity plays a critical role, while substitution elasticities between traded goods and international capital mobility appear relatively less influential. The shape of the production function also matters for the size of the leakages. Confirming the results obtained with large computable GE models, for a wide range of parameters' values, carbon leakages appear to be small.Therefore, the argument that unilateral carbon abatement action taken by a large group of countries (such as the Annex 1 group) is flawed by significant carbon leakages is not supported by our sensitivity analysis. The likelihood of small leakages favours in fact the formation of a worldwide coalition to stabilise climate change.
Optimal Urban Population Size
This paper explores whether the population size of the Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA) in Korea is efficient in terms of the national economy. To undertake this analysis, a recursively dynamic interregional computable general equilibrium (ICGE) model with a population module is developed. In this model, the explicit costs and benefits of population growth are estimated by using the industrial value added and consumer price inflation functions for each region. The counter-factual analysis shows that national population decentralisation away from the SMA is desirable for Korea's economic growth. Korea's GDP is estimated to be maximised when the SMA's national population share is at 39 per cent in the short term and 35 per cent in the long term. However, the SMA government is likely to have incentive to maintain its population at around 40 per cent of the national population, where per capita income at the regional, not national, level is maximised.
Innovation and Production in the Global Economy
We develop a quantifiable general equilibrium model of trade and multinational production (MP) in which countries can specialize in innovation or production. Home market effects or comparative advantage leads some countries to specialize in innovation and relegate manufacturing operations to other countries via outward MP. Counterfactual analysis reveals that the reduction in the cost of MP or the integration of China into the world economy may hurt countries that are driven to specialize in production, although these losses tend to be very small. Contrary to popular fears, production workers gain even in countries that further specialize in innovation.
Risk Shocks
We augment a standard monetary dynamic general equilibrium model to include a Bernanke-Gertler-Gilchrist financial accelerator mechanism. We fit the model to US data, allowing the volatility of cross-sectional idiosyncratic uncertainty to fluctuate over time. We refer to this measure of volatility as risk. We find that fluctuations in risk are the most important shock driving the business cycle.
Green Taxes in a Post-Paris World: Are Millions of Nays Inevitable?
Turning the Paris Agreement’s greenhouse gas emissions pledges into domestic policies is the next challenge for governments. We address the question of the acceptability of cost-effective climate policy in a real-voting setting. First, we analyze voting behavior in a large ballot on energy taxes, rejected in Switzerland in 2015 by more than 2 million people. Energy taxes were aimed at completely replacing the current value-added tax. We examine the determinants of voting and find that distributional and competitiveness concerns reduced the acceptability of energy taxes, along with the perception of ineffectiveness. Most people would have preferred tax revenues to be allocated for environmental purposes. Second, at the same time of the ballot, we tested the acceptability of alternative designs of a carbon tax with a choice experiment survey on a representative sample of the Swiss population. Survey respondents are informed about environmental, distributional and competitiveness effects of each carbon tax design. These impacts are estimated with a computable general equilibrium model. This original setting generates a series of novel results. Providing information on the expected environmental effectiveness of carbon taxes reduces the demand for environmental earmarking. Making distributional effects salient generates an important demand for progressive designs, e.g. social cushioning or recycling via lump-sum transfers. The case of lump-sum recycling is particularly striking: it is sufficient to show its desirable distributional properties to make it one of the most preferred designs, which corresponds to a completely novel result in the literature. We show that providing detailed information on the functioning of environmental taxes may contribute to close both the gap between acceptability ex ante and ex post and the gap between economists’ prescriptions and the preferences of the general public.
Trade in Carbon and Carbon Tariffs
Carbon-based import tariffs are proposed as a policy measure to reduce carbon leakage and increase the global cost-effectiveness of unilateral CO2 emission pricing. We investigate the case for carbon tariffs. For our assessment, we combine multi-region input–output and computable general equilibrium analyses based on data from the World Input–Output Database for the period 2000–2014. The multi-region input–output analysis confirms that carbon embodied in trade has increased during this period, but trade flows from Non-OECD to OECD countries became less important in relative terms since the 2007–2008 financial crisis. The computable general equilibrium analysis suggests that carbon tariffs’ efficacy in combating leakage increases in periods when trade in carbon increases. However, its potential to improve the global-cost effectiveness of unilateral emission pricing remains modest. On the other hand, we find that the potential of carbon tariffs to shift the economic burden of CO2 emission reduction from abating developed regions to non-abating developing regions increases sharply between 2000 and 2007, but declines after the financial crisis.
Assessing Short-Term and Long-Term Economic and Environmental Effects of the COVID-19 Crisis in France
In response to the COVID-19 health crisis, the French government has imposed drastic lockdown measures for a period of 55 days. This paper provides a quantitative assessment of the economic and environmental impacts of these measures in the short and long term. We use a Computable General Equilibrium model designed to assess environmental and energy policies impacts at the macroeconomic and sectoral levels. We find that the lockdown has led to a significant decrease in economic output of 5% of GDP, but a positive environmental impact with a 6.6% reduction in CO2 emissions in 2020. Both decreases are temporary: economic and environmental indicators return to their baseline trajectory after a few years. CO2 emissions even end up significantly higher after the COVID-19 crisis when we account for persistently low oil prices. We then investigate whether implementing carbon pricing can still yield positive macroeconomic dividends in the post-COVID recovery. We find that implementing ambitious carbon pricing speeds up economic recovery while significantly reducing CO2 emissions. By maintaining high fossil fuel prices, carbon taxation reduces the imports of fossil energy and stimulates energy efficiency investments while the full redistribution of tax proceeds does not hamper the recovery.
Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach
Using a Bayesian likelihood approach, we estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for the US economy using seven macroeconomic time series. The model incorporates many types of real and nominal frictions and seven types of structural shocks. We show that this model is able to compete with Bayesian Vector Autoregression models in out-of-sample prediction. We investigate the relative empirical importance of the various frictions. Finally, using the estimated model, we address a number of key issues in business cycle analysis: What are the sources of business cycle fluctuations? Can the model explain the cross correlation between output and inflation? What are the effects of productivity on hours worked? What are the sources of the \"Great Moderation\"?
Green Revolution research saved an estimated 18 to 27 million hectares from being brought into agricultural production
New estimates of the impacts of germplasm improvement in the major staple crops between 1965 and 2004 on global land-cover change are presented, based on simulations carried out using a global economic model (Global Trade Analysis Project Agro-Ecological Zone), a multicommodity, multiregional computable general equilibrium model linked to a global spatially explicit database on land use. We estimate the impact of removing the gains in cereal productivity attributed to the widespread adoption of improved varieties in developing countries. Here, several different effects—higher yields, lower prices, higher land rents, and trade effects—have been incorporated in a single model of the impact of Green Revolution research (and subsequent advances in yields from crop germplasm improvement) on land-cover change. Our results generally support the Borlaug hypothesis that increases in cereal yields as a result of widespread adoption of improved crop germplasm have saved natural ecosystems from being converted to agriculture. However, this relationship is complex, and the net effect is of a much smaller magnitude than Borlaug proposed. We estimate that the total crop area in 2004 would have been between 17.9 and 26.7 million hectares larger in a world that had not benefited from crop germplasm improvement since 1965. Of these hectares, 12.0-17.7 million would have been in developing countries, displacing pastures and resulting in an estimated 2 million hectares of additional deforestation. However, the negative impacts of higher food prices on poverty and hunger under this scenario would likely have dwarfed the welfare effects of agricultural expansion.
Theories and Methods of Regional Integration and Free Trade Agreements
This paper provides an introduction on the most relevant theories and types of regional integration on one hand and the most important methodologies to assess the net economic growth effects of the Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) between countries on the other. The first section briefly describes a basic theoretical framework about international integration and FTAs. The second part summarizes the current methodologies used for assessing the effects of the FTAs, as the gravity models and the Computable General Equilibrium Models (CGE), it also explains some aspects about the data. Finally, the third section presents conclusions