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This work constructs a seismic regime model for the eastern sector of the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation (AZRF) based on a newly developed, comprehensive integral earthquake catalog for the region, using a uniform magnitude scale from 1980 to 2020. The model parameters are calculated using a novel high-contrast mean-position method, where values are determined within large-radius circles but are assigned to the mean position of epicenters. A quantitative verification method, the L-test, based on the likelihood function, demonstrates that the model aligns well with the initial data. The magnitude–frequency distribution reconstructed from the model corresponds well with observations, both in terms of slope and the number of earthquakes. The epicenters of the largest earthquakes ( M ≥ 6) from both the 1982–2020 period and the 1900–1981 period, according to the Kondorskaya–Shebalin catalog, are located in areas with high expected recurrence of such earthquakes as calculated by the model.

The article presents an approach to studying the determination of migration processes, based on the sociopsychological essence of this phenomenon. The authors propose considering the activity of migration actions as a result of the interaction of environmental factors and individual personality traits based on the integrated concept of the motivational driver of migration. To identify motivational drivers of migration, a step-by-step methodology has been developed that can determine combinations of external factors and personality traits that most strongly correlate with migration activity. The methodology includes the use of such statistical methods as factor analysis, regression analysis, the chi-square test of independence, cluster analysis, and decision trees . The methodology was tested using the example of priority geostrategic territories of the Arctic Zone of Russia for a cohort of young people from the population. The empirical basis of the study was the results of a survey of 8600 people aged 16–35 years living in the Arctic territories of nine federal subjects of the Russian Arctic. The study identified ten motivational drivers of out-migration of young people from the Arctic regions, grouped into four types of factors: professional development, education, climate and ecology, and social connections. The structural components of motivational drivers are indicated and are meaningfully interpreted. The results of the study enrich the existing tools for studying migration processes, since they make it possible to analyze the complex configuration of the motivational driver of migration, which consists of a combination of environmental conditions and personality traits that have a nonlinear combined effect on the decision to migrate. Identifying the motivational drivers of migration has practical significance in adjusting the socioeconomic and migration policies implemented in the region.

The significant resource potential of the Arctic has attracted the attention of its adjacent countries and extra-regional states. The mineral and raw material base of the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation (AZRF) comprises a wide range of minerals. However, due to its hydrocarbon reserves, the Arctic is considered to be the most important geopolitical and geo-economic macro-region for Russia. A significant portion of the Arctic hydrocarbons (about 19%) is concentrated in the territory of Russia’s shelf. The extraction of Arctic marine oil and gas resources and ensuring the sustainability of the Russian energy complex depend significantly on the level of Arctic development. Thus, the pace and quality of the development of AZRF are strategically important to ensure the national interests of the country. It has been proven that the implementation of the state program for AZRF development and strategic plans of the largest companies operating in the region consolidate the raw material nature of AZRF development. Rent becomes the main form of income. This article addresses the main directions of the region’s development and the factors that prevent a high level of industrialization, which increase attention to the withdrawal and redistribution of rental income. The article considers the Russian and foreign experiences of withdrawal and redistribution of oil and gas rental income, and analyzes the level of socio-economic development of AZRF. The authors suggest a methodology for assessing the impact of a country’s area and population size on the ability to achieve a high income due to hydrocarbons. The authors also explain the principles of rental income redistribution in the region as a basis for improving the level of AZRF’s socio-economic development and as a condition for transition from the “colonial model” of development to the “sustainable development” model. The study results can be used to elaborate a mechanism for rental income redistribution in AZRF and state programs for the region’s development.

Marine virus diversity and their relationships with their hosts in the marine environment remain unclear. This study investigated the co-occurrence of marine DNA bacteriophages (phages) and bacteria in the sub-Arctic area of Kongsfjorden Bay in Svalbard (Norway) in April and June 2018 using metagenomics tools. Of the marine viruses identified, 48–81% were bacteriophages of the families Myoviridae, Siphoviridae, and Podoviridae. Puniceispirillum phage HMO-2011 was dominant (7.61%) in April, and Puniceispirillum phage HMO-2011 (3.32%) and Pelagibacter phage HTVC008M (3.28%) were dominant in June. Gammaproteobacteria (58%), including Eionea flava (14.3%) and Pseudomonas sabulinigri (12.2%), were dominant in April, whereas Alphaproteobacteria (87%), including Sulfitobacter profundi (51.5%) and Loktanella acticola (32.4%), were dominant in June. The alpha diversity of the bacteriophages and bacterial communities exhibited opposite patterns. The diversity of the bacterial community was higher in April and lower in June. Changes in water temperature and light can influence the relationship between bacteria and bacteriophages.

To provide a baseline description of copepod assemblages in the Pechora Sea, an estuarine area with great economical and ecological importance, we conducted a survey during the summer season. A total of 24 copepod taxa were identified in the study, with Acartia longiremis, Calanus finmarchicus, Centropages hamatus, Copepoda nauplii, Eurytemora affinis, Oithona similis, Pseudocalanus spp., and Temora longicornis being the most numerous. The high diversity (Shannon index = 2.51 ± 0.06), density (18,720 ± 3376 individuals m−3) and biomass (89 ± 18 mg dry mass m−3) of copepods were revealed. Populations of common small copepod taxa were dominated by the young stages, indicating spawning, while older copepodites prevailed among medium- and large-sized species, showing that their reproduction occurred before our survey. Cluster analysis indicated three groups of stations that mainly differed in the abundance of particular species. There were clear associations between copepod assemblages and environmental variables. Statistical analyses showed significant correlations between copepod abundance and water temperature or sampling depth, while other factors had a lesser influence. Our results suggest a strong effect of local circulation and currents on the spatial pattern of the copepod assemblages in the study area. This study may be useful for future biomonitoring in the south-eastern Barents Sea.

the article provides a calculation justification of the proposed railway structure on a reinforced concrete sleeper-free base, for which an analysis of the existing methodology for calculating the railway track for strength is carried out, according to which for a railway track on a sleeper-free base, dynamic loads acting from the rolling stock on the track are determined. The analysis of the applied sleeper-less structures of the railway track and the results of measurements of emerging stresses in the substructure, the measured depth of the core are carried out. Using the previously obtained results of studies of the depth of the core, the justification of the required height of the embankment and the calculation of the parameters of the subplate base is carried out. Next, the finite element method calculates the bending stresses arising in the bearing plate, where the maximum is 1.82 MPa and is compared with the permissible value, which is much greater for a reinforced concrete slab. Also, the result is the obtained elastic vertical movements, which indicate a more uniform distribution of the load from the rolling stock on the roadbed.

This study presents a comparative analysis of innovative development, advantages and threats of the Arctic zones belonging to Russia, Norway and Sweden by rating positioning using mathematical analysis methods. In order to determine the strengths and weaknesses of Russia among its Arctic competitors a comparative analysis was carried out using the index (coefficient) of innovative development of all these research subjects. The study also included the comparison of the parameters that make up its categories (enlarged group indicators) and subcategories (single indicators included in the categories). The results of the comparative analysis showed that for most of the studied indicators included in the subcategories (‘labor productivity’, ‘foundation of new enterprises’, ‘certification’, ‘high-tech production’, etc.), Russia lags far behind Norway and Sweden. Russia’s advantages lie in such subcategories as the development of innovative links between universities and the industrial sector in R&D, trade, diversification, and scope of market. Russia also successfully competes in such subcategories as business environment formation and creation of information and communication technologies. It was noted that these areas are promising for Russia and they should be given great attention to increase the competitiveness of Russia’s Arctic.

Socio-economic transformations greatly worsened the state of the Arctic regions for residents, which led to a decrease in the population due to the significant migration outflow. Using the balance of the population movement based on data from Rosstat, we estimated the intensity of migratory movement (relocation to permanent residence) and the natural movement of the population, along with the directions of incoming movement and attrition of the population to the general population dynamics in 1991–2000 in the regions of the Arctic zone of Russia. The analysis showed that the population was characterised by greater mobility compared with the population of the country as a whole. The attrition of the population was greater than the incoming population, and the regions of the Arctic zone of Russia were the donors of the population for the rest of Russia.

International and environmental law in Russia does not provide a preventive and precautionary approach to forestall degradation of the marine environment and the \"polluter pays\" principle at the present stage. The author proposes supplementing international environmental law in the investigated area with an approach based on the principle that the polluter not only pays but also restores. Improvement of approaches and principles of international law will be the basis for changing Russian legislation and legislation of other countries in order to prevent degradation of the marine environment. After an oil spill, the coastal waters of the seas and their ecosystems are the most vulnerable; therefore, the national legislation of states is primarily interested in legal regulation of marine environmental protection in case of oil and petroleum product spills. The legal obligation on oil and gas producing companies to carry out measures to remediate the marine environment will require them to finance scientific research, search and develop new technologies for the safe development of subsoil resources and restoration of the marine environment. This study is a comprehensive analysis of the scientific research results in the field of biology, environmental protection, protection of water bodies, marine environment, as well as international and Russian environmental law governing relations in the field of marine environment protection during the development of mineral deposits on the continental shelf, internal sea waters, in the territorial sea and the adjacent zone of the Russian Federation.

AbstractThe possible responses of Russia to modern challenges to the legislative regulation of navigation along the Northern Sea Route are analyzed against the background of climate change in the Arctic. The authors focus on identifying the best ways to harmonize the status of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation and the statutory regime of navigation along the Northern Sea Route with the rules of international law, including the framework of a scenario assuming that the waters of the Arctic Ocean will be ice-free for a significant part of the year. The international legal validity of Russia’s policy aimed at preserving the status of its Arctic zone and the Northern Sea Route is revealed; controversial issues in the positions of states, primarily the United States, regarding the status of this route are examined. Possible interpretations of Article 234 of the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (on ice-covered areas) are considered as applied to the Northern Sea Route. Substantively analyzing the disagreements between Russia and the United States, the authors show that their essence is in an attempt by the United States to revise the regime of the Vilkitskii Strait and some other Arctic straits of Russia as its internal waters that have been developed and maintained for centuries. Ways of ensuring the interests of the Russian Federation in its Arctic zone based on cooperation primarily with the countries of the Arctic Council are shown.