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The scientific investigation of mass graves : towards protocols and standard operating procedures
This book describes the detailed processes and techniques for the scientific investigation of atrocity crimes. The text includes methods for the location, evaluation, excavation, recovery, and recording of mass graves and the analysis of human remains to establish the identity of victims.
Book
Performance criteria for verbal autopsy-based systems to estimate national causes of death: development and application to the Indian Million Death Study
Background
Verbal autopsy (VA) has been proposed to determine the cause of death (COD) distributions in settings where most deaths occur without medical attention or certification. We develop performance criteria for VA-based COD systems and apply these to the Registrar General of India’s ongoing, nationally-representative Indian Million Death Study (MDS).
Methods
Performance criteria include a low ill-defined proportion of deaths before old age; reproducibility, including consistency of COD distributions with independent resampling; differences in COD distribution of hospital, home, urban or rural deaths; age-, sex- and time-specific plausibility of specific diseases; stability and repeatability of dual physician coding; and the ability of the mortality classification system to capture a wide range of conditions.
Results
The introduction of the MDS in India reduced the proportion of ill-defined deaths before age 70 years from 13% to 4%. The cause-specific mortality fractions (CSMFs) at ages 5 to 69 years for independently resampled deaths and the MDS were very similar across 19 disease categories. By contrast, CSMFs at these ages differed between hospital and home deaths and between urban and rural deaths. Thus, reliance mostly on urban or hospital data can distort national estimates of CODs. Age-, sex- and time-specific patterns for various diseases were plausible. Initial physician agreement on COD occurred about two-thirds of the time. The MDS COD classification system was able to capture more eligible records than alternative classification systems. By these metrics, the Indian MDS performs well for deaths prior to age 70 years. The key implication for low- and middle-income countries where medical certification of death remains uncommon is to implement COD surveys that randomly sample all deaths, use simple but high-quality field work with built-in resampling, and use electronic rather than paper systems to expedite field work and coding.
Conclusions
Simple criteria can evaluate the performance of VA-based COD systems. Despite the misclassification of VA, the MDS demonstrates that national surveys of CODs using VA are an order of magnitude better than the limited COD data previously available.
Journal Article
Performance of four computer-coded verbal autopsy methods for cause of death assignment compared with physician coding on 24,000 deaths in low- and middle-income countries
Background
Physician-coded verbal autopsy (PCVA) is the most widely used method to determine causes of death (CODs) in countries where medical certification of death is uncommon. Computer-coded verbal autopsy (CCVA) methods have been proposed as a faster and cheaper alternative to PCVA, though they have not been widely compared to PCVA or to each other.
Methods
We compared the performance of open-source random forest, open-source tariff method, InterVA-4, and the King-Lu method to PCVA on five datasets comprising over 24,000 verbal autopsies from low- and middle-income countries. Metrics to assess performance were positive predictive value and partial chance-corrected concordance at the individual level, and cause-specific mortality fraction accuracy and cause-specific mortality fraction error at the population level.
Results
The positive predictive value for the most probable COD predicted by the four CCVA methods averaged about 43% to 44% across the datasets. The average positive predictive value improved for the top three most probable CODs, with greater improvements for open-source random forest (69%) and open-source tariff method (68%) than for InterVA-4 (62%). The average partial chance-corrected concordance for the most probable COD predicted by the open-source random forest, open-source tariff method and InterVA-4 were 41%, 40% and 41%, respectively, with better results for the top three most probable CODs. Performance generally improved with larger datasets. At the population level, the King-Lu method had the highest average cause-specific mortality fraction accuracy across all five datasets (91%), followed by InterVA-4 (72% across three datasets), open-source random forest (71%) and open-source tariff method (54%).
Conclusions
On an individual level, no single method was able to replicate the physician assignment of COD more than about half the time. At the population level, the King-Lu method was the best method to estimate cause-specific mortality fractions, though it does not assign individual CODs. Future testing should focus on combining different computer-coded verbal autopsy tools, paired with PCVA strengths. This includes using open-source tools applied to larger and varied datasets (especially those including a random sample of deaths drawn from the population), so as to establish the performance for age- and sex-specific CODs.
Journal Article
An integrated approach to processing WHO-2016 verbal autopsy data: the InterVA-5 model
Background
Verbal autopsy is an increasingly important methodology for assigning causes to otherwise uncertified deaths, which amount to around 50% of global mortality and cause much uncertainty for health planning. The World Health Organization sets international standards for the structure of verbal autopsy interviews and for cause categories that can reasonably be derived from verbal autopsy data. In addition, computer models are needed to efficiently process large quantities of verbal autopsy interviews to assign causes of death in a standardised manner. Here, we present the InterVA-5 model, developed to align with the WHO-2016 verbal autopsy standard. This is a harmonising model that can process input data from WHO-2016, as well as earlier WHO-2012 and Tariff-2 formats, to generate standardised cause-specific mortality profiles for diverse contexts.
The software development involved building on the earlier InterVA-4 model, and the expanded knowledge base required for InterVA-5 was informed by analyses from a training dataset drawn from the Population Health Metrics Research Collaboration verbal autopsy reference dataset, as well as expert input.
Results
The new model was evaluated against a test dataset of 6130 cases from the Population Health Metrics Research Collaboration and 4009 cases from the Afghanistan National Mortality Survey dataset. Both of these sources contained around three quarters of the input items from the WHO-2016, WHO-2012 and Tariff-2 formats. Cause-specific mortality fractions across all applicable WHO cause categories were compared between causes assigned in participating tertiary hospitals and InterVA-5 in the test dataset, with concordance correlation coefficients of 0.92 for children and 0.86 for adults.
The InterVA-5 model’s capacity to handle different input formats was evaluated in the Afghanistan dataset, with concordance correlation coefficients of 0.97 and 0.96 between the WHO-2016 and the WHO-2012 format for children and adults respectively, and 0.92 and 0.87 between the WHO-2016 and the Tariff-2 format respectively.
Conclusions
Despite the inherent difficulties of determining “truth” in assigning cause of death, these findings suggest that the InterVA-5 model performs well and succeeds in harmonising across a range of input formats. As more primary data collected under WHO-2016 become available, it is likely that InterVA-5 will undergo minor re-versioning in the light of practical experience. The model is an important resource for measuring and evaluating cause-specific mortality globally.
Journal Article
Validity of a minimally invasive autopsy for cause of death determination in stillborn babies and neonates in Mozambique: An observational study
Over 5 million stillbirths and neonatal deaths occur annually. Limited and imprecise information on the cause of these deaths hampers progress in achieving global health targets. Complete diagnostic autopsies (CDAs)-the gold standard for cause of death determination-are difficult to perform in most high-burden settings. Therefore, validation of simpler and more feasible methods is needed.
In this observational study, the validity of a minimally invasive autopsy (MIA) method in determining the cause of death was assessed in 18 stillbirths and 41 neonatal deaths by comparing the results of the MIA with those of the CDA. Concordance between the categories of diseases obtained by the 2 methods was assessed by the Kappa statistic, and the sensitivity, specificity, positive, and negative predictive values of the MIA diagnoses were calculated. A cause of death was identified in 16/18 (89%) and 15/18 (83%) stillborn babies in the CDA and the MIA, respectively. Fetal growth restriction accounted for 39%, infectious diseases for 22%, intrapartum hypoxia for 17%, and intrauterine hypoxia for 11% of stillborn babies. Overall, the MIA showed in this group a substantial concordance with the CDA (Kappa = 0.78, 95% CI [0.56-0.99]). A cause of death was identified in all (100%) and 35/41 (85%) neonatal deaths in the CDA and the MIA, respectively. In this group, the majority of deaths were due to infectious diseases (66%). The overall concordance of the MIA with the CDA in neonates was moderate (Kappa = 0.40, 95% CI [0.18-0.63]). A high percentage of accuracy was observed for the MIA in all the diagnostic categories in both stillbirths and neonates (>75%). The main limitation of this study is that some degree of subjective interpretation is inherent to cause-of-death attribution in both the MIA and the CDA; this is especially so in stillbirths and in relation to fetal growth restriction.
The MIA could be a useful tool for cause-of-death determination in stillbirths and neonatal deaths. These findings may help to accelerate progress towards meeting global health targets by obtaining more accurate information on the causes of death in these age groups, which is essential in guiding the design of new interventions and increasing the effectiveness of those already implemented.
Journal Article
The WHO 2016 verbal autopsy instrument: An international standard suitable for automated analysis by InterVA, InSilicoVA, and Tariff 2.0
Verbal autopsy (VA) is a practical method for determining probable causes of death at the population level in places where systems for medical certification of cause of death are weak. VA methods suitable for use in routine settings, such as civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems, have developed rapidly in the last decade. These developments have been part of a growing global momentum to strengthen CRVS systems in low-income countries. With this momentum have come pressure for continued research and development of VA methods and the need for a single standard VA instrument on which multiple automated diagnostic methods can be developed.
In 2016, partners harmonized a WHO VA standard instrument that fully incorporates the indicators necessary to run currently available automated diagnostic algorithms. The WHO 2016 VA instrument, together with validated approaches to analyzing VA data, offers countries solutions to improving information about patterns of cause-specific mortality. This VA instrument offers the opportunity to harmonize the automated diagnostic algorithms in the future.
Despite all improvements in design and technology, VA is only recommended where medical certification of cause of death is not possible. The method can nevertheless provide sufficient information to guide public health priorities in communities in which physician certification of deaths is largely unavailable. The WHO 2016 VA instrument, together with validated approaches to analyzing VA data, offers countries solutions to improving information about patterns of cause-specific mortality.
Journal Article
Post-mortem MRI versus conventional autopsy in fetuses and children: a prospective validation study
Post-mortem MRI is a potential diagnostic alternative to conventional autopsy, but few large prospective studies have compared its accuracy with that of conventional autopsy. We assessed the accuracy of whole-body, post-mortem MRI for detection of major pathological lesions associated with death in a prospective cohort of fetuses and children.
In this prospective validation study, we did pre-autopsy, post-mortem, whole-body MRI at 1·5 T in an unselected population of fetuses (≤24 weeks' or >24 weeks' gestation) and children (aged <16 years) at two UK centres in London between March 1, 2007 and Sept 30, 2011. With conventional autopsy as the diagnostic gold standard, we assessed MRI findings alone, or in conjunction with other minimally invasive post-mortem investigations (minimally invasive autopsy), for accuracy in detection of cause of death or major pathological abnormalities. A radiologist and pathologist who were masked to the autopsy findings indicated whether the minimally invasive autopsy would have been adequate. The primary outcome was concordance rate between minimally invasive and conventional autopsy.
We analysed 400 cases, of which 277 (69%) were fetuses and 123 (31%) were children. Cause of death or major pathological lesion detected by minimally invasive autopsy was concordant with conventional autopsy in 357 (89·3%, 95% CI 85·8–91·9) cases: 175 (94·6%, 90·3–97·0) of 185 fetuses at 24 weeks' gestation or less, 88 (95·7%, 89·3–98·3) of 92 fetuses at more than 24 weeks' gestation, 34 (81·0%, 67·7–90·0) of 42 newborns aged 1 month or younger, 45 (84·9%, 72·9–92·1) of 53 infants aged older than 1 month to 1 year or younger, and 15 (53·6%, 35·8–70·5) of 28 children aged older than 1 year to 16 years or younger. The dedicated radiologist or pathologist review of the minimally invasive autopsy showed that in 165 (41%) cases a full autopsy might not have been needed; in these cases, concordance between autopsy and minimally invasive autopsy was 99·4% (96·6–99·9).
Minimally invasive autopsy has accuracy similar to that of conventional autopsy for detection of cause of death or major pathological abnormality after death in fetuses, newborns, and infants, but was less accurate in older children. If undertaken jointly by pathologists and radiologists, minimally invasive autopsy could be an acceptable alternative to conventional autopsy in selected cases.
Policy research Programme, Department of Health, UK.
Journal Article
Autopsy examination in sudden cardiac death: a current perspective on behalf of the Association for European Cardiovascular Pathology
In sudden cardiac death, an autopsy is an essential step in establishing a diagnosis of inherited cardiac disease and identifying families that require cardiac screening. To evaluate aspects of post-mortem practice in Europe, a questionnaire was designed and circulated to both clinical and forensic pathologists. There was a 48% response rate and information was obtained from 17 countries. The results showed a wide variety in the management of sudden cardiac death, with a general tendency towards a lack of thorough investigation. In up to 40% of cases, autopsies were not performed in subjects less than 50 years who may have died from cardiac disease. Reasons for this were lack of finance and lack of interest from police, legal authorities, and doctors. Only 50% of pathologists seem to follow a standard protocol for autopsy examination, apparently due to lack of expertise and/or training. When autopsies were performed, histology and toxicology were almost always taken, genetic studies were generally available and retention of the heart for specialist study was usually permitted. Our results suggest that although the standard of practice is appropriate in many centres, many more cases should have autopsies, especially in sudden deaths in subjects less than 50 years.
Journal Article
Health professionals’ and coroners’ views on less invasive perinatal and paediatric autopsy: a qualitative study
ObjectiveTo assess health professionals’ and coroners’ attitudes towards non-minimally and minimally invasive autopsy in the perinatal and paediatric setting.MethodsA qualitative study using semistructured interviews. Data were analysed thematically.ResultsTwenty-five health professionals (including perinatal/paediatric pathologists and anatomical pathology technologists, obstetricians, fetal medicine consultants and bereavement midwives, intensive care consultants and family liaison nurses, a consultant neonatologist and a paediatric radiologist) and four coroners participated. Participants viewed less invasive methods of autopsy as a positive development in prenatal and paediatric care that could increase autopsy rates. Several procedural and psychological benefits were highlighted including improved diagnostic accuracy in some circumstances, potential for faster turnaround times, parental familiarity with imaging and laparoscopic approaches, and benefits to parents and faith groups who object to invasive approaches. Concerns around the limitations of the technology such not reaching the same levels of certainty as full autopsy, unsuitability of imaging in certain circumstances, the potential for missing a diagnosis (or misdiagnosis) and de-skilling the workforce were identified. Finally, a number of implementation issues were raised including skills and training requirements for pathologists and radiologists, access to scanning equipment, required computational infrastructure, need for a multidisciplinary approach to interpret results, cost implications, equity of access and acceptance from health professionals and hospital managers.ConclusionHealth professionals and coroners viewed less invasive autopsy as a positive development in perinatal and paediatric care. However, to inform implementation a detailed health economic analysis and further exploration of parental views, particularly in different religious groups, are required.
Journal Article
Joint European Society of Paediatric Radiology (ESPR) and International Society for Forensic Radiology and Imaging (ISFRI) guidelines: paediatric postmortem computed tomography imaging protocol
Postmortem CT for investigating childhood deaths is increasingly utilised as a noninvasive adjunct or alternative to standard autopsy; however there are no standardised published imaging protocols. This article describes a standardised imaging protocol that has been developed based on current practices of international postmortem imaging practitioners and experts. This recommendation is expected to be useful for postmortem imaging centres wishing to update their existing practices and for those starting paediatric postmortem CT as a new service.
Journal Article