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"Balance of payments"
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Asymmetric impact of tourism on the balance of payments in Pakistan: evidence from non-linear ARDL
PurposeThe aim of the paper is to determine the asymmetric impact of tourism on the deficit in the balance of payments (BOPs).Design/methodology/approachThe research uses the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to investigate the asymmetric impact of tourism on Pakistan's BOPs deficit using quarterly data from 1995 to 2019.FindingsThe finding reveals that due to the positive change in tourism, the BOPs deficit decreases by 27%, although due to the negative change in tourism, the BOPs deficit rises by 2.3%. In addition, the significance of F-statistics (10.609) confirms the existence of co-integration between tourism and the deficit in the BOPs. The Wald test confirms the asymmetric association between tourism and the deficit in the BOPs over the long term.Research limitations/implicationsIn order to improve tourism in Pakistan, policymakers must consider the following implications. First, there is a need for an adequate infrastructure that can help the tourist. Second, the Government must maintain a stable law and order situation as a whole and particularly at tourist destinations. Finally, the Government should develop tourism-friendly policies in order to boost tourism in Pakistan.Originality/valueThe research provides new evidence of the impact of tourism on the BOPs using the novel non-linear ARDL (NARDL) technique. The evidence will help policymakers to develop policies to improve tourism in order to reduce the BOPs deficit.
Journal Article
The great rebalancing : trade, conflict, and the perilous road ahead for the world economy
China's economic growth is sputtering, the Euro is under threat, and the United States is combating serious trade disadvantages. Another Great Depression? Not quite. Noted economist and China expert Michael Pettis argues instead that we are undergoing a critical rebalancing of the world economies. Debunking popular misconceptions, Pettis shows that severe trade imbalances spurred on the recent financial crisis and were the result of unfortunate policies that distorted the savings and consumption patterns of certain nations. Pettis examines the reasons behind these destabilizing policies, and he predicts severe economic dislocations--a lost decade for China, the breaking of the Euro, and a receding of the U.S. dollar--that will have long-lasting effects. Pettis explains how China has maintained massive--but unsustainable--investment growth by artificially lowering the cost of capital. He discusses how Germany is endangering the Euro by favoring its own development at the expense of its neighbors. And he looks at how the U.S. dollar's role as the world's reserve currency burdens America's economy. Although various imbalances may seem unrelated, Pettis shows that all of them--including the U.S. consumption binge, surging debt in Europe, China's investment orgy, Japan's long stagnation, and the commodity boom in Latin America--are closely tied together, and that it will be impossible to resolve any issue without forcing a resolution for all. Demonstrating how economic policies can carry negative repercussions the world over, The Great Rebalancing sheds urgent light on our globally linked economic future.
A structural economic dynamics approach to balance-of-payments-constrained growth
This paper derives a balance-of-payments equilibrium growth rate analogous to Thirlwall's Law from a Pasinettian multi-sector macrodynamic framework. The resulting formula, which we call the Multi-Sectoral Thirlwall's Law, asserts that a country's growth rate of per capita income is directly proportional to the growth rate of its exports, with such a proportionality being inversely (directly) related to sectoral income elasticities of demand for imports (exports). These income elasticities are weighted by coefficients that measure the share of each sector in total imports and exports, respectively. It is shown that several theoretical, empirical and policy implications can be drawn from such a structural economic dynamics approach to balance-of-payments-constrained growth.
Journal Article
Structural change, balance-of-payments constraint, and economic growth: evidence from the multisectoral Thirlwall's law
This paper contributes to the literature on balance-of-paymentsconstrained growth by investigating how structural change, identified with changes in the sectoral composition of exports and imports, affects the external constraint. We test both the original and a multisectoral version of Thirlwall's law for a sample of Latin American and Asian countries. The original Thirlwall's law is found to hold for all sample countries except South Korea, whereas the multisectoral analogue holds for all of them. As the sectoral composition of exports and imports is found to matter for growth, we analyze the evolution of each country's weighted trade income elasticities.
Journal Article
Endogenous income elasticities
This paper deepens the analysis of the income elasticities of import and export demand in relation to the real exchange rate (RER) within a balance of payments constrained growth framework. It identifies how the RER can affect these elasticities and explores the resulting implications. A key highlight is the RER's ability to induce structural changes toward more complex and technologyintensive sectors. To illustrate this, a formal multisectoral model is presented, demonstrating the conditions under which a higher RER can alleviate external constraints. Finally, several related considerations are addressed.
Journal Article
Will Bolivia Be Able to Remain as an Emblematic Example of Democratic Socialism?
The left-wing experience in Bolivia was emblematic for its achievements in economic growth and an unprecedented reduction of poverty and inequality, but it was interrupted by the coup of 2019. Nevertheless, in 2020 the second progressive wave emerged after a broad social movement to recover democracy. Then, this research aims to critically reflect on the progressive experience in Bolivia and its new challenges. Using political economy categories and the heterodox framework, this research argues that to remain the second progressive wave experience requires overcoming the internal political crisis and the balance of payments constraints.
La experiencia de la izquierda en Bolivia fue emblemática por sus logros en crecimiento económico y una reducción sin precedentes de la pobreza y la desigualdad, pero fue interrumpida por el golpe de 2019. Sin embargo, en 2020 surgió la segunda ola progresista luego de un amplio movimiento social para recuperar la democracia. Entonces, esta investigación pretende reflexionar críticamente sobre la experiencia progresista en Bolivia y sus nuevos desafíos. Utilizando categorías de economía política y el marco heterodoxo, esta investigación sostiene que la continuidad de la segunda ola progresista requiere superar la crisis política interna y las restricciones emergentes de la balanza de pagos.
A experiência da esquerda na Bolívia foi emblemática pelas suas conquistas no crescimento económico e na redução sem precedentes da pobreza e da desigualdade, mas foi interrompida pelo golpe de 2019. No entanto, em 2020, a segunda onda progressista emergiu após um amplo movimento social para recuperar a democracia. . Portanto, esta pesquisa tem como objetivo refletir criticamente sobre a experiência progressista na Bolívia e seus novos desafios. Utilizando categorias de economia política e o quadro heterodoxo, esta investigação argumenta que a continuidade da segunda onda progressista requer a superação da crise política interna e das restrições emergentes da balança de pagamentos.
Journal Article
Green innovation in a balance-of-payments constraint growth model for developing economies with capital inflows: The Latin America scenario
The main purpose of the paper is to build a balance of payments constraint model with capital inflows, where green innovations are inducers of the structural change process. The main results indicate that green R&D can reduce the growth rate of natural resource use. On the other hand, green structural change will only occur if foreign direct investment has spillover effects on green R&D.
Journal Article