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"Balance of trade"
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The great rebalancing : trade, conflict, and the perilous road ahead for the world economy
China's economic growth is sputtering, the Euro is under threat, and the United States is combating serious trade disadvantages. Another Great Depression? Not quite. Noted economist and China expert Michael Pettis argues instead that we are undergoing a critical rebalancing of the world economies. Debunking popular misconceptions, Pettis shows that severe trade imbalances spurred on the recent financial crisis and were the result of unfortunate policies that distorted the savings and consumption patterns of certain nations. Pettis examines the reasons behind these destabilizing policies, and he predicts severe economic dislocations--a lost decade for China, the breaking of the Euro, and a receding of the U.S. dollar--that will have long-lasting effects. Pettis explains how China has maintained massive--but unsustainable--investment growth by artificially lowering the cost of capital. He discusses how Germany is endangering the Euro by favoring its own development at the expense of its neighbors. And he looks at how the U.S. dollar's role as the world's reserve currency burdens America's economy. Although various imbalances may seem unrelated, Pettis shows that all of them--including the U.S. consumption binge, surging debt in Europe, China's investment orgy, Japan's long stagnation, and the commodity boom in Latin America--are closely tied together, and that it will be impossible to resolve any issue without forcing a resolution for all. Demonstrating how economic policies can carry negative repercussions the world over, The Great Rebalancing sheds urgent light on our globally linked economic future.
Rice in the Time of Sugar
How did Cuba's long-established sugar trade result in the development of an agriculture that benefited consumers abroad at the dire expense of Cubans at home? In this history of Cuba, Louis A. Perez proposes a new Cuban counterpoint: rice, a staple central to the island's cuisine, and sugar, which dominated an export economy 150 years in the making. In the dynamic between the two, dependency on food imports-a signal feature of the Cuban economy-was set in place.Cuban efforts to diversify the economy through expanded rice production were met with keen resistance by U.S. rice producers, who were as reliant on the Cuban market as sugar growers were on the U.S. market. U.S. growers prepared to retaliate by cutting the sugar quota in a struggle to control Cuban rice markets. Perez's chronicle culminates in the 1950s, a period of deepening revolutionary tensions on the island, as U.S. rice producers and their allies in Congress clashed with Cuban producers supported by the government of Fulgencio Batista. U.S. interests prevailed-a success, Perez argues, that contributed to undermining Batista's capacity to govern. Cuba's inability to develop self-sufficiency in rice production persists long after the triumph of the Cuban revolution. Cuba continues to import rice, but, in the face of the U.S. embargo, mainly from Asia. U.S. rice growers wait impatiently to recover the Cuban market.
eBook
Nonlinear ARDL Approach and the J-Curve Phenomenon
Since introduction of cointegration and error-correction modeling, the definition of the J-curve has changed to reflect short-run deterioration combined with long-run improvement of the trade balance due to currency depreciation. Standard methods such as ARDL approach of Pesaran et al. (2001) assume that adjustment of variables follow a linear path. It is now recognized that the adjustment process could be nonlinear. Application of Non-linear ARDL approach of Shin et al. (2013) provides more evidence of the J-curve supporting non-linear adjustment of variables as well as asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on the trade balance, using bilateral trade balance models of the U.S. with each of her six largest trading partners.
Journal Article
The Bilateral USA-Mexico Trade Balances Under Decomposed Export Data
This study re-formulates and re-examines the traditional bilateral trade balance (TB) concept (ratio) in the USA-Mexico case using a different methodology. This re-examination is constructed on newly formulated decomposed-export-based TBs—namely, domestic-export-based TB and re-export-based TB. Since the undecomposed traditional total-export-based TB is expressed as a total export/import ratio, it may misrepresent the actual nature of bilateral trade of this country with Mexico because the USA also considerably re-exports to Mexico. The main empirical finding confirms the need for using decomposed-export-based TBs in trade models for the USA since the impacts of exchange rate and income on undecomposed and decomposed export-based TBs of the USA are entirely different. For example, while depreciation in the USD improves the re-export-based TB for only 13 commodities, the same change in the USD improves the domestic-export-based TB for 18. Some empirical inferences from findings are as follows: (i) Mexican consumers (MC) with a stronger Peso purchase US domestically produced commodities more than re-exported ones; (ii) MC with a weaker Peso stop purchasing US re-exported commodities more than the US domestically produced ones; (iii) MC are appreciated/depreciated-Peso-sensitive to US domestically produced commodities more than re-exported ones.
Journal Article
Rice in the time of sugar : the political economy of food in Cuba
\"In this history of Cuba, Louis A. Pâerez proposes a new Cuban counterpoint: rice, a staple central to the island's cuisine, and sugar, which dominated an export economy 150 years in the making. Pâerez shows how the logic of the sugar trade resulted in the development of an agriculture for consumers abroad at the expense of consumers at home. In the process, dependency on food imports, a signal feature of the Cuban economy, was set in place\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
The Asymmetric Impact of Exchange Rate Changes on Bilateral Trade between Vietnam and the US: Does the COVID-19 Pandemic Matter?
This study examines the relationship between the exchange rate and the Vietnam-US trade balance by employing a combination of Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) approaches with disaggregated data from 21 industries from 2008 to 2022. The findings reveal that, in both ARDL and NARDL models, a real Vietnamese Dong (VND) depreciation does not significantly impact on the aggregated trade balance in the long-run. The results provide evidence of an asymmetric impact of the real exchange rate on the trade balance. These findings also suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic may have induced structural breaks in the relationship between exchange rates and trade balances, leading to increased sensitivity of trade balances to exchange rate movements.
Journal Article
Assessing long- and short-run dynamic interplay among balance of trade, aggregate economic output, real exchange rate, and CO2 emissions in Pakistan
Since the open economy macroeconomic indicators such as the balance of trade and exchange rate interact with the economic and environmental indicators, it is worthy of delving into their interactive linkages. This study investigates the long-run and short-run dynamic interactive links among the balance of trade, aggregate economic output, real exchange rate, and carbon dioxide (CO
2
) emissions in Pakistan. Bayer and Hanck’s combined cointegration and the auto-regressive distributed lag method are applied on annual time-series data from 1970 through 2018. The key findings are: (1) Balance of trade and real exchange rate imparted the CO
2
emissions mitigation influence in both the long run and the short run. In contrast, the aggregate economic output exhibited the CO
2
emissions driving influence in the long run and short run. (2) Balance of trade and real exchange rate induced enhancing and impeding influence on aggregate economic output, respectively, in the short run. However, they exposed the aggregate economic output strengthening influence in the long run. Besides, CO
2
emissions produced a neutral influence on the aggregate economic output in the short run, whereas it put forward the aggregate economic output hampering influence in the long run. (3) Aggregate economic output revealed a balance of trade improvement influence for both the long run and short run. Nevertheless, the real exchange rate showed the balance of trade deterioration (improvement) influence in the short run (long run), confirming the
J-curve
hypothesis in Pakistan. Furthermore, (a) a bidirectional causality existed between CO
2
emissions and aggregate economic output, and balance of trade and aggregate economic output. (b) A unidirectional causality existed from real exchange rate to balance of trade and aggregate economic output, and from the balance of trade and real exchange rate to CO
2
emissions. The diversification of exports and energy mix is recommended to improve the balance of trade, economic aggregates, and environmental sustainability.
Graphic abstract
Journal Article
Nonlinear ARDL approach, asymmetric effects and the J-curve
Purpose
– Previous research that investigated the effects of currency depreciation on the trade balance assumed that the adjustment of all variables in a given model is in linear fashion. The authors wonder if introduction of nonlinearity in the adjustment of some variables such as the exchange rate can shed additional light on evidence of the J-curve. The new approach also allows to test whether exchange rate changes have symmetric or asymmetric effects on the trade balance. Estimates of a trade balance model for Canada, China, Japan, and the USA reveal that the effects are indeed asymmetric. The paper aims to discuss these issues.
Design/methodology/approach
– The methodology is based on linear and nonlinear ARDL approach.
Findings
– When nonlinearity is introduced into testing approach for the J-curve, more evidence is found in support of the J-curve.
Research limitations/implications
– The models are estimated using aggregate trade flows of each country with the rest of the world, hence they suffer from aggregation bias. Using trade flows at bilateral level and at commodity level are highly recommended for future research.
Originality/value
– This is the first paper that applies nonlinear ARDL approach to test the short-run and long-run effects of currency depreciation on the trade balance.
Journal Article