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The security community generally believes that North Korea has a relatively sophisticated guided ballistic missile program. This report questions this view and seeks to better characterize the North Korean missile threat. The author compares the available data on the North Korean missile program against five hypotheses about the program's origins, sophistication, and scale, highlighting inconsistencies.

In 1998 and in 2006, North Korea conducted ballistic missile tests that landed dangerously close to Japan. In the first case, the North Korean tests provoked only Japanese alarm and severely constrained action. In the second, the tests led to unilateral economic sanctions – the first time since the end of the Second World War that Japan has used coercion against a neighboring state. What explains this dramatic shift in policy choice? Seung Hyok Lee argues that the 2006 sanctions were not a strategic response to the missile tests, but a reflection of changing public attitudes towards North Korea – the result of the shocking revelation that the North Koreans had abducted at least seventeen Japanese citizens in the 1970s and 80s and secretly held them prisoner for decades. Japanese Society and the Politics of the North Korean Threat is the first book on this development in English and a valuable case study of public opinion’s increasing influence on Japanese security policy.

The contention over the quantity and quality of regional missile defenses forward-deployed by the United States in the Asia-Pacific region animates much of the US–China disagreement about strategic stability. The Chinese argue that the deployed assets exceed reasonable defensive requirements and suggest that if these missile-defense deployments continue, they will be forced to increase the size of their nuclear arsenal. In disagreement, the United States claims that regional missile defenses are defensive by design, limited in scope, and necessary to defeat a North Korean missile campaign. In this article, a series of simulation experiments were developed to empirically test these opposing arguments over missile defenses and strategic stability. The simulations indicate that current deployments are necessary for defense and proportional to the threat. The analysis also argues that current deployments do not possess the ability to alter the US–China strategic nuclear balance significantly. The article concludes with a discussion of other subjective aspects of national security that may explain Chinese concerns and explore possible ways to reassure China.

A quantitative, corpus-based approach is most illuminating for describing collocational and other recurrent patterns associated with specific lexical items across an entire corpus, while a qualitative, critical discourse analysis approach is best suited for scrutinising specific stretches of text at various levels. By incorporating both approaches, this study examines US news stories published in mainstream media with an attempt to identify specific discursive practices relating to North Korea. The analysis reveals that three US media outlets (CNN, Newsweek and The New York Times) divide the world into certain sets of countries, and that being pro- or anti-USA might have an impact on which country is associated with North Korea.

The paper examines the set of responses to North Korean ballistic and nuclear programs from the perspective of U.S.-supported diplomatic and military non-proliferation efforts with a special focus on missile defense. The XXI-century Pyongyang's investments in securing the regime by weapons of mass destruction (nuclear-based deterrence) were seen as a potential source of serious international military conflict. Until the 2018 detente decades of sanctions aimed at dictatorial Pyongyang's regime nuclear military programs showed the weaknesses of peaceful international attempts to limit dangerous WMD proliferation. Before 2018 Pyongyang under the Kim Jong Un regime reached strategic nuclear capacities through a provocative upgrade of its existing arsenal, proving the implemented sanctions-based measures to limit the North Korean ballistic and WMD armaments to be largely ineffective. The presented analysis employed the probabilistic model to analyze ballistic missile defense effectiveness as one of the discussed response options to the North Korean crisis by comparing the leakproof performance likelihood at various levels of single shot kill probability (SSKP) in scenarios of engaging additional interceptors against warheads attacking in a salvo.

Purpose-Evaluate the diplomatic and military tools utilized to influence North Korea into conforming with the foreign policy desires of the United States and the Republic of South Korea. These were utilized to remove nuclear weapons from the North Korean arsenal, lead to regime change, and potentially promote reunification of the peninsula. Findings-Decades after the end of the Korean War, friction persists between the two Koreas as does work on nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles in North Korea. Continued isolation and sanctions on North Korea have not bent the regime. Practical Implications-An isolated and disconnected region allows leaders to retain control by keeping the people hostile and suspicious. A major military conflict could be triggered by design, miscommunication, or a rogue element and could spark a conflagration affecting the entire globe. Such a conflict could result in casualties beyond number and destruction of a major part of the global economy and commerce of Northwest Asia. Originality/Value-Initiate a complete 180° turn in foreign policy regarding North Korea by eliminating the sanctions and providing humanitarian aid. This would remove the barriers to engagement, communication, and commerce, improve the quality of life of the people of North Korea, and lead to a more positive interaction.

North Korea's nuclear weapons program and its ballistic missile programs have developed compelling capabilities that can potentially threaten South Korea and its neighbors even including the United States. But, due to Kim Jong Un's opaqueness and unpredictability, deterring the North Korea's nuclear threats is fraught with difficulty. Thus, U.S. needs to reaffirm its commitment to provide and strengthen deterrence for South Korea using the full range of military capabilities including its nuclear umbrella, conventional strike, and missile defense capabilities. South Korea also needs to make every effort to detect, defend, disrupt, and destroy the North's missiles through its Kill Chain and Korean Air and Missile Defense. In addition, despite the official desire to keep the Korean Air and Missile Defense (KAMD) system independent of U.S. missile defense (MD) system, South Korea needs to develop various options for reinforcing interoperability with the U. S. missile system.

Purpose-Starting in early 2018, Kim Jong-Un changed his attitude toward other countries by opening dialogues and negotiations, particularly with the U.S. and South Korea. It was unprecedented since he had been known to pursue a policy of isolation and was notoriously ruthless. Hence, this paper aims to seek why he changed his foreign policy course in 2018 by offering an olive branch to South Korea and the U.S. Design/Methodology/Approach-This paper approaches this issue by tracing the historical cycle of the DPRK's foreign policy behavior, linking the nuclear crisis, the DPRK's plea for negotiation, and economic assistance/sanction relief. Findings-This paper concludes that the change in Kim's foreign policy approach echoes the historical patterns and precedents which have been displayed by his predecessors. North Korea has displayed consistencies in actions, reactions, and interactions in employing their nuclear strategy to build relationships with foreign leaders to seek economic assistance, as well as to domestically secure their hereditary regime. Practical Implications-The DPRK, for many IR students and scholars, is rather inexplicable and peculiar. Its hereditary system has persisted for decades, despite seeming economically fragile. Kim Jong-Un has been known to be merciless in ruling the country and initially refused to negotiate or talk with other countries about the nuclear issue; however, after a series of rapprochements, he seems to be more approachable and to behave more like a \"statesman.\" Therefore, this paper is expected to provide more insights and understanding about the DPRK, its \"nuclear diplomacy,\" foreign policy approach, and Kim Jong-Un himself by tracing the historical pattern of his predecessors as well as their policies. Originality/Value-This study aims to identify the change in behavior of the DPRK's Supreme Leader. It is expected to enrich the existing literature on the DPRK and Kim Jong-Un.

In December of 2012, North Korea successfully launched a satellite, after failures in 1998, 2009 and 2012. The carrier missiles used during the last three launches are of a new design. Computer simulations of different models for these missiles, using information on the satellite trajectories, show that they require more advanced technology than North Korea has demonstrated previously. This knowledge allows an estimate of the performance of two road mobile ballistic missiles shown during parades in 2010 and 2012. The first, known as the Musudan, theoretically has a range that is considerably larger than the currently operational North Korean missiles. The second, the KN-08, however, is too heavy to be based on the rocket engines used in the missiles used for the satellite launches, which means that it is either a mock-up or that North Korea is developing more powerful engines. The lack of a flight test program makes it unlikely that either of these missiles is close to being operational.