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Recent events have shown that sovereigns, just like banks, can be subject to runs, highlighting the importance of the investor base for their liabilities. This paper proposes a methodology for compiling internationally comparable estimates of investor holdings of sovereign debt. Based on this methodology, it introduces a dataset for 24 major advanced economies that can be used to track US$42 trillion of sovereign debt holdings on a quarterly basis over 2004-11. While recent outflows from euro periphery countries have received wide attention, most sovereign borrowers have continued to increase reliance on foreign investors. This may have helped reduce borrowing costs, but it can imply higher refinancing risks going forward. Meanwhile, advanced economy banks' exposure to their own government debt has begun to increase across the board after the global financial crisis, strengthening sovereign-bank linkages. In light of these risks, the paper proposes a framework-sovereign funding shock scenarios (FSS)-to conduct forward-looking analysis to assess sovereigns' vulnerability to sudden investor outflows, which can be used along with standard debt sustainability analyses (DSA). It also introduces two risk indices-investor base risk index (IRI) and foreign investor position index (FIPI)-to assess sovereigns' vulnerability to shifts in investor behavior.

This paper presents a new database on the timing of systemic banking crises and policy responses to resolve them. The database covers the universe of systemic banking crises for the period 1970-2007, with detailed data on crisis containment and resolution policies for 42 crisis episodes, and also includes data on the timing of currency crises and sovereign debt crises. The database extends and builds on the Caprio, Klingebiel, Laeven, and Noguera (2005) banking crisis database, and is the most complete and detailed database on banking crises to date.

In this paper, we provide the first analysis of the level and determinants of sovereign exposure of banking systems in Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries, thus contributing to the existing literature on sovereign exposures and the sovereign-bank nexus. Results of descriptive analysis showed that exposure to sovereign debt securities in CEE countries is substantially higher than in euro area countries, which can be explained by the lower development of financial markets in this region. We also found evidence of home-bias in CEE and emphasized the role of different monetary policy regimes in explaining differences in exposure among CEE countries. Results of panel analysis showed that changes of debt securities in bank balance sheets in CEE countries are mostly determined by broader macroeconomic conditions and to a lesser extent by their regulatory frameworks. In addition, we did not find evidence of so-called reach-for-yield behaviour. Our results indicate that efforts to reduce sovereign exposure in CEE countries require strong collaboration of not only regulators, but also of fiscal authorities and other policy makers able to contribute to the development of financial markets in this region. Moreover, regulators should especially focus on reducing the home-bias in CEE.

Noteworthy contributions have highlighted that human contact is a considerable factor in bank-firm relationships. It allows the acquisition of soft information, which alleviates information asymmetries and increases the use of bank debt. The advent of digital technologies in the information collection process open new horizons and change the role of personal contacts in bank-firm interactions, as entrepreneurs visit bank branches less frequently. This study uses a large sample of Italian SMEs from 2011 to 2020 and finds that the rapid increase and use of digital instruments have reduced the positive influence of physical closeness between banks and SMEs on the indebtedness levels. Interestingly, our study has also found that the COVID-19 crisis did not amplify this moderating effect. Results support theories that human contact is an important factor in bank-firm relationships because it allows the acquisition of soft information, which alleviates information asymmetries and increases the use of bank debt. Our study suggests that close human ties are still extremely relevant and digitalization should be exploited to support the collection of the kind of qualitative soft information that is crucial in debt negotiations.Plain English SummaryThe growing integration and digitalization of banks gives rise to a question: are local personal bank-entrepreneur relationships still important for small businesses? We interestingly find that human relationships between the bank and the firm occurring at the local level are important in the soft information collection procedures, positively influencing the amount of debt that SMEs use. In light of such relevance, governments’ challenge consists on directing banks toward a system that strengthens the collection of soft information in a digitalized world. In a phygital future, digitalization should thus be exploited to provide banks not only quantitative data, but also qualitative information that support lending decisions.

The data and analysis presented in this edition of global development finance are based on actual flows and debt related transactions for 2010 reported to the World Bank Debtor Reporting System (DRS) by 129 developing countries. The reports confirm that in 2010 international capital flows to developing countries surpassed preliminary estimates and returned to their pre-crisis level of $1.1 trillion, an increase of 68 percent over the comparable figure for 2009. Private capital flows surged in 2010 driven by a massive jump in short-term debt, a strong rebound in bonds and more moderate rise in equity flows. Debt related inflows jumped almost 200 percent compared to a 25 percent increase in net equity flows. The rebound in capital flows was concentrated in a small group of 10 middle income countries where net capital inflows rose by an average of nearly 80 percent in 2010, almost double the rate of increase (44 percent) recorded by other developing countries. These 10 countries accounted for 73 percent of developing countries gross national income (GNI), and received 73 percent of total net capital flows to developing countries in 2010. The 2010 increase in net capital flows was accompanied by marked change in composition between equity and debt related flows. Over the past decade net equity flows to developing countries have consistently surpassed the level of debt related flows, reaching as high as 97 percent of aggregate net capital flows in 2002 and accounting for 75 percent of them ($509 billion) in 2009. However, periods of rapid increase in capital flows have often been marked by a reversal from equity to debt.

The World Bank's Debtor Reporting System (DRS), from which the aggregates and country tables presented in this report are drawn, was established in 1951. The debt crisis of the 1980s brought increased attention to debt statistics and to the World debt tables, the predecessor to Global development finance. Now the global financial crisis has once again heightened awareness in developing countries of the importance of managing their external obligations. International capital flows to the 128 developing countries reporting to the World Bank Debtor Reporting System (DRS) fell by 20 percent in 2009 to $598 billion (3.7 percent of Gross National Income (GNI), compared with $744 billion in 2008 (4.5 percent of GNI) and a little over half the peak level of $1,111 billion realized in 2007. Private flows (debt and equity) declined by 27 percent despite a rebound in bond issuance, portfolio equity flows, and short-term debt flows. Both foreign direct investment (FDI) flows and bank lending fell precipitously. By contrast, the net inflow of debt-related financing from official creditors (excluding grants) rose 175 percent as support was stepped up to low- and middle-income countries severely affected by the global financial crisis.

This research aims at identifying the impact of short-term funding methods of organizations (bank funding or commercial funding) on the systematic risk of Latin American companies. The proposal is based on the ideas provided by Hamada (1972) and Modigliani and Miller’s theory (1958, 1963), evidencing the relationship between the funding structure of companies and the systematic risk. Multiple linear regression econometric models were estimated. The systematic risk was measured by levered beta (β) and the respective disaggregation of unlevered beta (βD) and residual beta (βR). The sample under study belonged to Latin American companies from 2009 to 2022. The main findings evidence a negative relationship between short-term commercial and bank debt and unlevered beta from Latin American companies, resulting in higher intensity and significance for commercial debt. The study includes evidences that contribute to the finance literature by making clear that short-term funding methods impact on the systematic risk of organizations. From the practical contribution perspective, this research explains to market actors and investors that the funding structure determined by operational activities, through operational liabilities, must be considered in the asset pricing process.

This paper tests how collateral value affects a firm's choice between bank debt and public debt by considering the exogenous variation in the market value of a firm's real-estate assets caused by fluctuations in local real-estate prices. Using local land supply elasticities as an instrument for local real-estate prices, I estimate that a one-standard-deviation increase in collateral value causes bank debt as a fraction of total debt to increase by six percentage points.

Information voids reflect a lack of publicly available information about a country's investment climate, and represent the information problems associated with institutional voids. We argue that foreign investors differ in their sensitivity to information voids based on their own private information and their flexibility in responding rapidly to change. We predict that foreign banks will be least hampered by information voids, due to their privileged access to private information about local conditions and ability to adapt quickly to new information. Portfolio investors, while impeded by information voids due to their severely limited access to local private information, are able to quickly respond to new information. Foreign direct investors have moderate access to local private information, yet their inability to adapt quickly creates problems dealing with information voids. Using time-series cross-sectional data on local public information and capital flows to the thirty largest emerging markets from 1994 to 2012, we find preliminary support for our hypotheses regarding the sensitivity of different investors to information voids. We find that direct investors are most sensitive to information voids and banks are least sensitive, while portfolio investors are moderately sensitive.

We examine the response of informed market participants to the informational signal of auditor changes. Using propensity score matching and difference-in-differences research designs, we document that loan spreads increase by 22 percent on bank loans initiated within a year after auditor changes, increasing direct loan costs by approximately $6.6 million. We also find a significant increase in upfront and annual fees and the probability of pledging collateral, consistent with an increase in screening and monitoring by banks. The increase in spreads is significant for client-initiated auditor changes, with or without disagreements with the auditor, as well as for auditor resignations. Further, the significant increase in loan spreads is documented for upward, lateral, and downward auditor changes. Our results are robust to other proxies for financial reporting quality. Finally, we find no effect resulting from the forced auditor changes due to Arthur Andersen. Collectively, these results suggest that voluntary auditor changes increase information risk, which is priced in private credit markets.