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This paper examines determinants of pass through from the market interest rate to bank retail deposit and loan rates. A dynamic adjustment cost model with imperfect competition implies that these rates depend on own lagged values and on lagged, current, and expected future values of the security rate. Greater competition in retail markets reduces the impact of lagged and expected rates on current retail rates while raising the effect of the current security rate, yielding greater pass through. These results have important implications for both the specifications used in empirical work and biases introduced into estimates of pass-through effects.

This paper studies the role of credit supply factors in business cycle fluctuations using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with financial frictions enriched with an imperfectly competitive banking sector.Banks issue collateralized loans to both households and firms, obtain funding via deposits, and accumulate capital out of retained earnings. Loan margins depend on the banks' capital-to-assets ratio and on the degree of interest rate stickiness. Balance-sheet constraints establish a link between the business cycle, which affects bank profits and thus capital, and the supply and cost of loans. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques using data for the euro area. The analysis delivers the following results. First, the banking sector and, in particular, sticky rates attenuate the effects of monetary policy shocks, while financial intermediation increases the propagation of supply shocks. Second, shocks originating in the banking sector explain the largest share of the contraction of economic activity in 2008, while macroeconomic shocks played a limited role. Third, an unexpected destruction of bank capital may have substantial effects on the economy.

The market share of Islamic commercial banks in Indonesia is small despite the fact that Indonesia is a predominantly Muslim country. This paper investigates the asymmetric effect of the deposit rate of conventional banks on Islamic bank deposits in Indonesia applying a dual banking system. This study employs the Non-linear ARDL (NARDL), using monthly data and covering 2009:M1–2019:M7. The findings clearly confirm the long-run relationship between the Islamic deposit and conventional deposit rate for any maturity. Furthermore, the impact of conventional bank deposit rate is asymmetry on Islamic bank deposit for any maturity, implying that Islamic bank deposits react differently to up and down in conventional bank deposit rates, but it tends to weaken for longer maturity. More interestingly, based on asymmetric results, Islamic bank deposits adjust at a higher speed to an increase in conventional deposit rates compared to a rise in the Islamic deposit rates. The results imply that Islamic bank depositors may transfer their funds to conventional bank deposits as conventional bank deposit rates rise in a dual banking environment known as displaced commercial risk (DCR). AcknowledgmentsThis work was funded by the Centre for Economic Studies, Department of Economics, Faculty of Business and Economics, Universitas Islam Indonesia, Yogyakarta, Indonesia under Grant Number: 164.a/Dir.PPE/VI/2020.

A large theoretical literature shows that competition reduces banks' franchise values and induces them to take more risk. Recent research contradicts this result: When banks charge lower rates, their borrowers have an incentive to choose safer investments, so they will in turn be safer. However, this argument does not take into account the fact that lower rates also reduce the banks' revenues from performing loans. This paper shows that when this effect is taken into account, a U-shaped relationship between competition and the risk of bank failure generally obtains.

Discount-rate variation is the central organizing question of current asset-pricing research. I survey facts, theories, and applications. Previously, we thought returns were unpredictable, with variation in price-dividend ratios due to variation in expected cashflows. Now it seems all price-dividend variation corresponds to discount-rate variation. We also thought that the cross-section of expected returns came from the CAPM. Now we have a zoo of new factors. I categorize discount-rate theories based on central ingredients and data sources. Incorporating discount-rate variation affects finance applications, including portfolio theory, accounting, cost of capital, capital structure, compensation, and macroeconomics.

This article examines the macroeconomic impact of the first round of quantitative easing (QE) by the Bank of England. We attempt to quantify the effects of these purchases by focusing on the impact of lower long-term interest rates on the wider economy. We use three different models to estimate the impact of QE on output and inflation: a large Bayesian vector autoregression (VAR), a change-point structural VAR and a time-varying parameter VAR. Our estimates suggest that QE may have had a peak effect on the level of real GDP of around 1½% and a peak effect on annual CPI inflation of about 1¼% points.

The problem of financial inclusion of the population is relevant in developing countries, including Ukraine. Analysis of the state of financial inclusion demonstrated a fairly low level of financial services provided to Ukrainians. The purpose of the article is to assess the level of financial inclusion of households in the regions of Ukraine in the market of bank loans in the pre-war period using cluster analysis tools and justify the possibility of their application for the formation of an effective state-regional policy for the restoration and development of the affected territories, in particular, in the context of ensuring access to bank loans. Cluster analysis was the methodological tool of the study. An algorithm of clustering of regions of Ukraine by the level of financial inclusion of the population in the market of bank loans was designed, taking into account such indicators as the number of bank branches, amount of a loan for one person, interest rates on loans to individuals in the regions. As a result of cluster analysis, four clusters were formed with low, middle, high and advanced-level regions by the level of financial inclusion of the population in the market of bank loans. Most Ukrainian regions (15) were determined as having a low level of access to the market of bank loans. This made it possible to conclude that these regions need special attention from the central and local authorities, as well as from financial institutions in terms of facilitation of public access to banking services. The need to strengthen the financial inclusion of the population in Ukraine during martial law and in the post-war period, taking into account the needs of de-occupied and front-line territories, as well as regions with a large number of internally displaced persons, is substantiated.

We calculate the present value of state employee pension liabilities using discount rates that reflect the risk of the payments from a taxpayer perspective. If benefits have the same default and recovery characteristics as state general obligation debt, the national total of promised liabilities based on current salary and service is $3.20 trillion. If pensions have higher priority than state debt, the value of liabilities is much larger. Using zero-coupon Treasury yields, which are default-free but contain other priced risks, promised liabilities are $4.43 trillion. Liabilities are even larger under broader concepts that account for salary growth and future service.