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A central result in international macroeconomics is that a government cannot simultaneously opt for open financial markets, fixed exchange rates, and monetary autonomy; rather, it is constrained to choosing no more than two of these three. This paper considers whether partial capital controls and limited exchange rate flexibility allow for full monetary policy autonomy. We find partial capital controls do not generally allow for greater monetary control than with open capital accounts, unless they are quite extensive, but a moderate amount of exchange rate flexibility does allow for some degree of monetary autonomy, especially in emerging and developing economies.

The exchange-rate regime is often seen as constrained by the monetary policy trilemma, which imposes a stark tradeoff among exchange stability, monetary independence, and capital market openness. Yet the trilemma has not gone without challenge. Some argue that under the modern float there could be limited monetary autonomy; others, that even under the classical gold standard domestic monetary autonomy was considerable. This paper studies the coherence of international interest rates over more than 130 years. The constraints implied by the trilemma are largely borne out by history.

To investigate how a fixed exchange rate affects monetary policy, this paper classifies countries as pegged or nonpegged and examines whether a pegged country must follow the interest rate changes in the base country. Despite recent research which hints that all countries, not just pegged countries, lack monetary freedom, the evidence shows that pegs follow base country interest rates more than nonpegs. This study uses actual behavior, not declared status, for regime classification; expands the sample including base currencies other than the dollar; examines the impact of capital controls, as well as other control variables; considers the time series properties of the data carefully; and uses cointegration and other levels-relationship analysis to provide additional insights.

Professional organizations recommend inclusion of multiple performance (PVTs) and symptom validity tests (SVTs) (Bush et al., Archives of Clinical Neuropsychology, 20 , 419–426, 2005 ; Heilbronner et al., The Clinical Neuropsychologist, 23 (7), 1093–1129, 2009 ). However, to date, empirically driven recommendations for interpretation of multiple validity indicators are largely absent, and the generalizability of available psychometric data is questionable in clinical practice. The current aim is to provide base rate data and recommendations for interpretation of multiple validity indicators, assuming varying correlations between each PVT at a range of specificity and sensitivity rates. As an initial step, Monte Carlo methodology was validated across 24 embedded and stand-alone validity indicators in seven extant noncompensation-seeking clinical samples. Samples were comprised of patients with psychotic and nonpsychotic psychiatric disorders, as well as different neurological conditions. Strategies are outlined for clinical integration of base rate data for advanced administration and interpretation of multiple validity indicators. In light of the current findings, recommendations are provided to reduce false-positive rates associated with making determinations regarding noncredible test performance.

In diagnostic services, agents typically need to weigh the benefit of running an additional test and improving the accuracy of diagnosis against the cost of delaying the provision of services to others. Our paper analyzes how to dynamically manage this accuracy/congestion trade-off. To that end, we study an elementary congested system facing an arriving stream of customers. The diagnostic process consists of a search problem in which the service provider conducts a sequence of imperfect tests to determine the customer's type. We find that the agent should continue to perform the diagnosis as long as her current belief that the customer is of a given type falls into an interval that depends on the congestion level as well as the number of performed tests thus far. This search interval should shrink as congestion intensifies and as the number of performed tests increases if additional conditions hold. Our study reveals that, contrary to diagnostic services without congestion, the base rate (i.e., the prior probability of the customer type) has an effect on the agent's search strategy. In particular, the optimal search interval shrinks when customer types are more ambiguous a priori, i.e., as the base rate approaches the value at which the agent is indifferent between types. Finally, because of congestion effects, the agent should sometimes diagnose the customer as being of a given type, even if test results indicate otherwise. All these insights disappear in the absence of congestion. This paper was accepted by Martin Lariviere, operations management.

Although narrative reviews have suggested that \"youth psychopathy\" is a strong predictor of future crime and violence, to date no quantitative summaries of this literature have been conducted. We meta-analyzed recidivism data for the Psychopathy Checklist measures across 21 non-overlapping samples of male and female juvenile offenders. After removing outliers, psychopathy was significantly associated with general and violent recidivism (rw's of .24 and .25, respectively), but negligibly related to sexual recidivism in the few studies examining this low base rate outcome. Even after eliminating outliers, however, considerable heterogeneity was noted among the effects, with some of this variability being explained by the gender and ethnic composition of the samples. Effect sizes for the small number of female samples available for analysis were mostly small and nonsignificant, and psychopathy was a weaker predictor of violent recidivism among more ethnically heterogeneous samples. In relation to predicting both general and violent recidivism, psychopathy performed comparably to an instrument designed specifically to assess risk, the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory ( Hoge & Andrews, 2002 ).

The no miracles argument is one of the main arguments for scientific realism. Recently it has been alleged that the no miracles argument is fundamentally flawed because it commits the base rate fallacy. The allegation is based on the idea that the appeal of the no miracles argument arises from inappropriate neglect of the base rate of approximate truth among the relevant population of theories. However, the base rate fallacy allegation relies on an assumption of random sampling of individuals from the population which cannot be made in the case of the no miracles argument. Therefore the base rate fallacy objection to the no miracles argument fails. I distinguish between a \"local\" and a \"global\" form of the no miracles argument. The base rate fallacy objection has been leveled at the local version. I argue that the global argument plays a key role in supporting a base-rate-fallacy-free formulation of the local version of the argument.

Consumers spontaneously construct attributions for negative events such as product-harm crises. Base-rate information influences these attributions. The research findings suggest that for brands with positive prior beliefs, a high (vs. low) base rate of product-harm crises leads to less blame if the crisis is said to be similar to others in the industry (referred to as the \"discounting effect\"). However, in the absence of similarity information, a low (vs. high) base rate of crises leads to less blame toward the brand (referred to as the \"subtyping effect\"). For brands with negative prior beliefs, the extent of blame attributed to the brand is unaffected by the base-rate and similarity information. Importantly, the same base-rate information may have a different effect on the attribution of a subsequent crisis depending on whether discounting or subtyping occurred in the attribution of the first crisis. Consumers who discount a first crisis also tend to discount a second crisis for the same brand, whereas consumers who subtype a first crisis are unlikely to subtype again.

We document a large and consequential bias in how Americans perceive the major political parties: people tend to considerably overestimate the extent to which party supporters belong to party-stereotypical groups. For instance, people think that 32% of Democrats are LGBT (vs. 6% in reality) and 38% of Republicans earn over $250,000 per year (vs. 2% in reality). Experimental data suggest that these misperceptions are genuine and party specific, not artifacts of expressive responding, innumeracy, or ignorance of base rates. These misperceptions are widely shared, though bias in out-party perceptions is larger. Using observational and experimental data, we document the consequences of this perceptual bias. Misperceptions about out-party composition are associated with partisan affect, beliefs about out-party extremity, and allegiance to one’s own party. When provided information about the out-party’s actual composition, partisans come to see its supporters as less extreme and feel less socially distant from them.

This study aims to investigate the effects of crude oil price (COP) and base rate (BR) on the strength of the Ringgit (RM) against the US Dollar (USD). Within the framework of the international Fisher effect theory, the study employs yearly data from the Bloomberg Database over an observed period from 1984 through 2017. Using bivariate Engle-Granger cointegration test as an estimation tool, the study reveals the presence of a long-term relationship between the RM and COP. However, the results of the Granger Causality test show an absence of a dynamic relationship between them. From the second analysis between the RM and BR, the study finds the presence of both long-term and short-term relationships between them. Interestingly, the relationship is somewhat bidirectional. Overall, the study has suggested the relevance of the international Fisher effect in explaining how variations in the RM exchange rate are elucidated by the bank lending market. In addition, it is worth noting that both BR and COP exert a significant influence on the strength of the RM against USD over time.