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\"Maps of species' distributions or habitat suitability are required for many aspects of environmental research, resource management and conservation planning. These include biodiversity assessment, reserve design, habitat management and restoration, species and habitat conservation plans and predicting the effects of environmental change on species and ecosystems. The proliferation of methods and uncertainty regarding their effectiveness can be daunting to researchers, resource managers and conservation planners alike. Franklin summarises the methods used in species distribution modeling (also called niche modeling) and presents a framework for spatial prediction of species distributions based on the attributes (space, time, scale) of the data and questions being asked. The framework links theoretical ecological models of species distributions to spatial data on species and environment, and statistical models used for spatial prediction. Providing practical guidelines to students, researchers and practitioners in a broad range of environmental sciences including ecology, geography, conservation biology, and natural resources management.\" --NHBS Environment Bookstore.

This book provides a first synthetic view of an emerging area of ecology and biogeography, linking individual- and population-level processes to geographic distributions and biodiversity patterns. Problems in evolutionary ecology, macroecology, and biogeography are illuminated by this integrative view. The book focuses on correlative approaches known as ecological niche modeling, species distribution modeling, or habitat suitability modeling, which use associations between known occurrences of species and environmental variables to identify environmental conditions under which populations can be maintained. The spatial distribution of environments suitable for the species can then be estimated: a potential distribution for the species. This approach has broad applicability to ecology, evolution, biogeography, and conservation biology, as well as to understanding the geographic potential of invasive species and infectious diseases, and the biological implications of climate change. The authors lay out conceptual foundations and general principles for understanding and interpreting species distributions with respect to geography and environment. Focus is on development of niche models. While serving as a guide for students and researchers, the book also provides a theoretical framework to support future progress in the field.

Aim The tomato family Solanaceae is distributed on all major continents except Antarctica and has its centre of diversity in South America. Its worldwide distribution suggests multiple long-distance dispersals within and between the New and Old Worlds. Here, we apply maximum likelihood (ML) methods and newly developed biogeographical stochastic mapping (BSM) to infer the ancestral range of the family and to estimate the frequency of dispersal and vicariance events resulting in its present-day distribution. Location Worldwide. Methods Building on a recently inferred megaphylogeny of Solanaceae, we conducted ML model fitting of a range of biogeographical models with the program 'BioGeoBEARS'. We used the parameters from the best fitting model to estimate ancestral range probabilities and conduct stochastic mapping, from which we estimated the number and type of biogeographical events. Results Our best model supported South America as the ancestral area for the Solanaceae and its major clades. The BSM analyses showed that dispersal events, particularly range expansions, are the principal mode by which members of the family have spread beyond South America. Main conclusions For Solanaceae, South America is not only the family's current centre of diversity but also its ancestral range, and dispersal was the principal driver of range evolution. The most common dispersal patterns involved range expansions from South America into North and Central America, while dispersal in the reverse direction was less common. This directionality may be due to the early build-up of species richness in South America, resulting in large pool of potential migrants. These results demonstrate the utility of BSM not only for estimating ancestral ranges but also in inferring the frequency, direction and timing of biogeographical events in a statistically rigorous framework.

The increase in species richness with island area (ISAR) is a well-established global pattern, commonly described by the power model, the parameters of which are hypothesized to vary with system isolation and to be indicative of ecological process regimes. We tested a structural equation model of ISAR parameter variation as a function of taxon, isolation, and archipelago configuration, using a globally distributed dataset of 151 ISARs encompassing a range of taxa and archipelago types. The resulting models revealed a negative relationship between ISAR intercept and slope as a function of archipelago species richness, in turn shaped by taxon differences and by the amount and disposition of archipelago area. These results suggest that local-scale (intra-archipelago) processes have a substantial role in determining ISAR form, obscuring the diversity patterns predicted by island theory as a function of archipelago isolation. These findings have implications for the use and interpretation of ISARs as a tool within biogeography, ecology, and conservation.

Three flawed practices associated with model averaging coefficients for predictor variables in regression models commonly occur when making multimodel inferences in analyses of ecological data. Model-averaged regression coefficients based on Akaike information criterion (AIC) weights have been recommended for addressing model uncertainty but they are not valid, interpretable estimates of partial effects for individual predictors when there is multicollinearity among the predictor variables. Multicollinearity implies that the scaling of units in the denominators of the regression coefficients may change across models such that neither the parameters nor their estimates have common scales, therefore averaging them makes no sense. The associated sums of AIC model weights recommended to assess relative importance of individual predictors are really a measure of relative importance of models, with little information about contributions by individual predictors compared to other measures of relative importance based on effects size or variance reduction. Sometimes the model-averaged regression coefficients for predictor variables are incorrectly used to make model-averaged predictions of the response variable when the models are not linear in the parameters. I demonstrate the issues with the first two practices using the college grade point average example extensively analyzed by Burnham and Anderson. I show how partial standard deviations of the predictor variables can be used to detect changing scales of their estimates with multicollinearity. Standardizing estimates based on partial standard deviations for their variables can be used to make the scaling of the estimates commensurate across models, a necessary but not sufficient condition for model averaging of the estimates to be sensible. A unimodal distribution of estimates and valid interpretation of individual parameters are additional requisite conditions. The standardized estimates or equivalently the t statistics on unstandardized estimates also can be used to provide more informative measures of relative importance than sums of AIC weights. Finally, I illustrate how seriously compromised statistical interpretations and predictions can be for all three of these flawed practices by critiquing their use in a recent species distribution modeling technique developed for predicting Greater Sage-Grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) distribution in Colorado, USA. These model averaging issues are common in other ecological literature and ought to be discontinued if we are to make effective scientific contributions to ecological knowledge and conservation of natural resources.

Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used in ecology, biogeography and conservation biology to estimate relationships between environmental variables and species occurrence data and make predictions of how their distributions vary in space and time. During the past two decades, the field has increasingly made use of machine learning approaches for constructing and validating SDMs. Model accuracy has steadily increased as a result, but the interpretability of the fitted models, for example the relative importance of predictor variables or their causal effects on focal species, has not always kept pace. Here we draw attention to an emerging subdiscipline of artificial intelligence, explainable AI (xAI), as a toolbox for better interpreting SDMs. xAI aims at deciphering the behavior of complex statistical or machine learning models (e.g. neural networks, random forests, boosted regression trees), and can produce more transparent and understandable SDM predictions. We describe the rationale behind xAI and provide a list of tools that can be used to help ecological modelers better understand complex model behavior at different scales. As an example, we perform a reproducible SDM analysis in R on the African elephant and showcase some xAI tools such as local interpretable model‐agnostic explanation (LIME) to help interpret local‐scale behavior of the model. We conclude with what we see as the benefits and caveats of these techniques and advocate for their use to improve the interpretability of machine learning SDMs.

Full-face tunnel boring machine (TBM) is a modern and efficient tunnel construction equipment. A reliable and accurate TBM performance (like penetration rate, PR) prediction can reduce the cost and help to select the appropriate construction method. Therefore, this study introduces a new hybrid intelligence technique, i.e., grey wolf optimizer-feature weighted-multiple kernel-support vector regression (GWO-FW-MKL-SVR) to predict TBM PR. For this purpose, a tunnel in China was selected as a case study and the most important parameters on TBM performance, i.e., chamber earth pressure, total thrust, cutterhead torque, cutterhead speed, cohesion, internal friction angle, compression modulus, the ratio of boulder, uniaxial compressive strength and rock quality designation, were measured and considered as model inputs. To show the capability of the GWO-FW-MKL-SVR model, three models including biogeography-based optimization (BBO)-FW-MKL-SVR, MKL-SVR, and SVR were also proposed to predict the TBM PR. To select the best predictive models, some performance indices, i.e., coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error (RMSE) and variance accounted for (VAF) were considered and calculated. The obtained results showed that the GWO-FW-MKL-SVR model receives the highest accuracy in predicting the TBM PR for both train and test stages. R2 values of 0.946 and 0.894, for train and test stages of the GWO-FW-MKL-SVR model, respectively, confirmed that this new hybrid model is considered as a powerful, applicable and simple technique in predicting the TBM PR. By performing feature weight analysis, it was found that the effects of the uniaxial compressive strength, rock quality designation and cutterhead speed features were higher than the other input parameters on the TBM PR.

Aim Geologically dynamic areas often harbour remarkable levels of biodiversity. Among other factors, mountain building is assumed to be a precondition for species radiation, and yet, the potential role of immigration as a source of biodiversity prior to radiation is often neglected. Here, we studied the biogeographical history of the large genus Saxifraga to unravel the role played by the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) for the diversification of this genus and to understand factors that have led to the establishment of high biodiversity in and around this region. Location QTP and surrounding mountain ranges and worldwide distribution range of Saxifraga. Methods Using a total of 420 taxa (321 ingroup taxa) comprising more than 60% of extant Saxifraga species, we studied the evolutionary history of Saxifraga by performing phylogenetic analyses (maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference on nuclear ITS and plastid trnL-trnV, matK sequences), divergence time estimation (using uncorrelated log-normal clock models and four fossil constraints in beast) and ancestral range estimation (using BioGeoBEARS). Results Saxifraga originated in North America around 74 (64–83) Ma, dispersed to South America and northern Asia during its early diversification and colonized Europe and the QTP region by the Late Eocene. The QTP region was colonized several times independently, followed in some lineages by rapid radiations, temporally coinciding with recent uplifts of the Hengduan Mountains at the southeastern fringe of the QTP. Subsequently, several lineages dispersed out of Tibet. Main conclusions Immigration, recent rapid radiation and lineage persistence were all important processes for the establishment of a rich species stock of Saxifraga in the QTP region. Because floristic exchanges between the neighbouring areas and the QTP region were bi-directional, the spatio-temporal evolution of Saxifraga contrasts with the 'out of QTP' pattern, which has often been assumed for northern temperate plants.

Aim Statistical species distribution models (SDMs) are the most common tool to predict the impact of climate change on biodiversity. They can be tuned to fit relationships at various levels of complexity (defined here as parameterization complexity, number of predictors, and multicollinearity) that may co‐determine whether projections to novel climatic conditions are useful or misleading. Here, we assessed how model complexity affects the performance of model extrapolations and influences projections of species ranges under future climate change. Location Europe. Taxon 34 European tree species. Methods We sampled three replicates of predictor sets for all combinations of 10 levels (n = 3–12) of environmental variables (climate, terrain, soil) and 10 levels of multicollinearity. We used these sets for each species to fit four SDM algorithms at three levels of parameterization complexity. The >100,000 resulting SDM fits were then evaluated under environmental block cross‐validation and projected to environmental conditions for 2061–2080 considering four climate models and two emission scenarios. Finally, we investigated the relationships of model design with model performance and projected distributional changes. Results Model complexity affected both model performance and projections of species distributional change. Fits of intermediate parameterization complexity performed best, and more complex parameterizations were associated with higher projected loss of current ranges. Model performance peaked at 10–11 variables but increasing number of variables had no consistent effect on distributional change projections. Multicollinearity had a low impact on model performance but distinctly increased projected loss of current ranges. Main conclusions SDM‐based climate change impact assessments should be based on ensembles of projections, varying SDM algorithms as well as parameterization complexity, besides emission scenarios and climate models. The number of predictor variables should be kept reasonably small and the classical threshold of maximum absolute Pearson correlation of 0.7 restricts collinearity‐driven effects in projections of species ranges.

A central tenet of ecology and biogeography is that the broad outlines of species ranges are determined by climate, whereas the effects of biotic interactions are manifested at local scales. While the first proposition is supported by ample evidence, the second is still a matter of controversy. To address this question, we develop a mathematical model that predicts the spatial overlap, i.e. co‐occurrence, between pairs of species subject to all possible types of interactions. We then identify the scale of resolution in which predicted range overlaps are lost. We found that co‐occurrence arising from positive interactions, such as mutualism (+/+) and commensalism (+/0), are manifested across scales. Negative interactions, such as competition (−/−) and amensalism (−/0), generate checkerboard patterns of co‐occurrence that are discernible at finer resolutions but that are lost and increasing scales of resolution. Scale dependence in consumer–resource interactions (+/−) depends on the strength of positive dependencies between species. If the net positive effect is greater than the net negative effect, then interactions scale up similarly to positive interactions. Our results challenge the widely held view that climate alone is sufficient to characterize species distributions at broad scales, but also demonstrate that the spatial signature of competition is unlikely to be discernible beyond local and regional scales.