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This pilot study investigated the feasibility of delivering a package of community-based interventions for improving perinatal care using lady health workers (LHWs) and traditional birth attendants (Dais) in rural Pakistan. The intervention was implemented in four of eight village clusters (315 villages, total population 138,600), while four served as a comparison group. The LHWs in intervention clusters received additional training focused on essential maternal and newborn care, conducted community education group sessions, and were encouraged to link up with local Dais. The intervention was delivered within the regular government LHW programme and was supported by the creation of voluntary community health committees. In intervention villages, there were significant reductions from baseline in stillbirth (from 65.9 to 43.1 per 1000 births, P < 0.001) and neonatal mortality rates (from 57.3 to 41.3 per 1000 live births, P < 0.001). The proportion of deliveries conducted by skilled attendants at public sector facilities also increased, from 18% at baseline to 30%, while the proportion of home births decreased from 79% to 65%. A household survey indicated a higher frequency of key behaviours (e.g. early and exclusive breastfeeding, delayed bathing and cord care) in intervention villages. The improved stillbirth and neonatal mortality rates observed indicate that community health workers (i.e. LHWs and Dais) can be effective in implementing a community and outreach package that leads to improved home care practices by families, increased care-seeking behaviour and greater utilization of skilled care providers. These preliminary observations require confirmation in an adequately powered trial.

Background From 2000 to 2008, in urban areas in Spain, adolescent fertility and abortion rates underwent unprecedented increases, consecutive to intensive immigration from developing countries. To address unmet needs for contraception information and services, a community-based, gender-sensitive and culturally adapted brief counselling intervention ( SIRIAN program ) was launched in some deprived neighbourhoods with a high proportion of immigrants in Barcelona. Once a randomized controlled trial demonstrated its effectiveness in increasing the use of contraceptives, we aim to examine its population impact on adolescent fertility rates. Methods Quasi-experimental study with comparison group, using population data from 2005 to 2016. Five neighbourhoods in the lowest tercile of Disposable Household Income were intervened in 2011–13. The comparison group included the three neighbourhoods which were in the same municipal district and in the lowest Disposable Household Income tercile, and displayed the highest adolescent fertility rates. Generalized linear models were fitted to assess absolute adolescent fertility rates and adjusted by immigrant population between pre-intervention (2005–10) and post-intervention periods (2011–16); Difference in Differences and relative pre-post changes analysis were performed. Results In 2005–10 the intervention group adolescent fertility rate was 27.90 (per 1000 women 15–19) and 21.84 in the comparison group. In 2011–16 intervention areas experienced great declines (adolescent fertility rate change: − 12.30 (− 12.45 to − 12.21); p  < 0.001), while comparison neighbourhoods remained unchanged (adolescent fertility rate change: 1.91 (− 2.25 to 6.07); p  = 0.368). A reduction of − 10.97 points (− 13.91 to − 8.03); p  < 0.001) is associated to the intervention. Conclusion Adolescent fertility rate significantly declined in the intervention group but remained stable in the comparison group. This quasi-experimental study provide evidence that, in a country with universal health coverage, a community counselling intervention that increases access to contraception, knowledge and sexual health care in hard-to-reach segments of the population can contribute to substantially reduce adolescent fertility rates. Reducing adolescent fertility rates could become a feasible goal in cities with similar conditions.

Accurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios. To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10–54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression—Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values—a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy—by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007–21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline. During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63–5·06) to 2·23 (2·09–2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137–147), declining to 129 million (121–138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1—canonically considered replacement-level fertility—in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7–29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59–2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25–1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6–43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1–59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions—decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7–25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3–19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4–10·1) in 2100—but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40–1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35–1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction. Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The impact of community-based family planning programs and access to credit on contraceptive use, fertility, and family size preferences has not been established conclusively in the literature. We provide additional evidence on the possible effect of such programs by describing the results of a randomized field experiment whose main purpose was to increase the use of contraceptive methods in rural areas of Ethiopia. In the experiment, administrative areas were randomly allocated to one of three intervention groups or to a fourth control group. In the first intervention group, both credit and family planning services were provided and the credit officers also provided information on family planning. Only credit or family planning services, but not both, were provided in the other two intervention groups, while areas in the control group received neither type of service. Using pre-and post-intervention surveys, we find that neither type of program, combined or in isolation, led to an increase in contraceptive use that is significantly greater than that observed in the control group. We conjecture that the lack of impact has much to do with the mismatch between women's preferred contraceptive method (injectibles) and the contraceptives provided by community-based agents (pills and condoms).

AbstractObjectiveTo measure the association of China’s universal two child policy, announced in October 2015, with changes in births and health related birth characteristics.DesignNational, descriptive before-and-after comparative study.SettingEvery county in 28 of 31 provinces of mainland China.ParticipantsBirths included in two national databases: 67 786 749 births from county level monthly aggregated data between January 2014 and December 2017; and 31 786 279 deliveries from individual level delivery information records between January 2015 and December 2017.Main outcome measuresMonthly mean number of births and mean proportion of multiparous mothers and mothers aged 35 and over, preterm deliveries, and caesarean deliveries.ResultsThe study had two phases: the baseline period (up to and including June 2016, nine months after the policy announcement) and the effective period (from July 2016 to December 2017). The estimated number of additional births attributable to the new policy between July 2016 and December 2017 was 5.40 million (95% confidence interval 4.34 to 6.46). The monthly mean percentage of multiparous mothers and mothers aged 35 and over increased by 9.1 percentage points (95% confidence interval 6.4 to 11.7) and 5.8 percentage points (5.2 to 6.4), respectively. This increase in older mothers, however, was not associated with a concurrent increase in the overall rate of preterm birth. The monthly mean caesarean delivery rate among multiparous mothers increased by 1.2 percentage points (0.8 to 1.6) from 39.7% to 40.9%, and decreased by 3.0 percentage points (−3.5 to −2.5) among nulliparous mothers from 39.6% to 36.6%.ConclusionsSince its announcement in October 2015, the universal two child policy has been associated with a rise in births in China and with changes in health related birth characteristics: women giving birth have been more likely to be multiparous, and more likely to be aged 35 and over. No evidence of concurrent worsening outcomes (that is, premature births) was seen.

Priscilla Idele talks to Gary Humphreys about the drivers of falling fertility rates and the need for data-driven rights-based, youth-led responses.Priscilla Idele talks to Gary Humphreys about the drivers of falling fertility rates and the need for data-driven rights-based, youth-led responses.

Faced with significant population decline, many governments have turned to pronatalist policies to boost birth rates, even though such approaches are frequently ineffective and potentially infringe on reproductive rights. This study demonstrates that a more effective and immediate policy alternative exists: reducing preventable and treatable mortality. Using United Nations data, we modelled population projections to 2050 in 28 countries and territories, comparing a baseline scenario against two benchmarks: an immediate increase to replacement-level fertility and the reduction of national mortality rates to match the rate of Japan. Our findings show that investing in health is a more effective way to reduce population decline than raising fertility, particularly for countries in eastern and south-eastern Europe. For countries in the World Health Organization European Region that are most affected by population decline, achieving Japanese mortality levels would almost halve population loss, greatly outperforming the reduced decline expected with a replacement fertility approach. We consider that reducing mortality should be a central pillar of a demographic strategy. This approach offers faster demographic returns, aligns with human rights and healthy ageing goals, and provides a stronger return on prior societal investments in education and health. We recommend that policy-makers therefore move towards strengthening health systems, disease prevention and public health interventions. At the same time, they should integrate these measures with broader institutional reforms for a more sustainable response to population change that protects human rights.

According to the most recent census in China, based on data from approximately 7 million households collected in late 2020, approximately 12 million babies were born last year. Coupled with this is the cultural legacy of the one-child policy, points out Yi Fuxian, a senior scientist in obstetrics and gynaecology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison (Madison, WI, USA) and author of Big Country with an Empty Nest. Limiting how many children people can have is a violation of international law.” [...]this latest decision to allow Chinese couples up to three children is just one small part of the country's wide-reaching plan to address the economic and health implications of its ageing society, points out Gietel-Basten.

The male–female ratio at birth (M/F: male births divided by total births) is anticipated to approximate 0.515. This has been shown to be declining in industrialised countries and to be displaying a latitude gradient in Europe, with more males born in warmer, southern climates. Annual national data for the British Isles for male and female live births were obtained from the World Health Organization and analysed with contingency tables. Analysis was performed separately for individual countries and for totals for the northern (Scotland and Northern Ireland) and southern (England and Wales, and the Republic of Ireland) regions. This study analysed 49,263,493 live births. There was an overall rise in M/F up to the late 1970s, followed by a decline thereafter. The step-down for the periods of 1975–1979 to 1980–1984 was highly significant for both the northern ( p  = 0.001) and southern regions ( p  < 0.0001). An overall decreasing trend in M/F was noted ( p  = 0.04) which reversed the expected European latitude gradient. More males are born in Scotland and Northern Ireland than in England and Wales, and the Republic of Ireland ( p  = 0.02). There was a male deficit of 59,311 live births. Conclusion M/F is decreasing in the British Isles, to the south more than to the north, to the extent that the expected latitude gradient is reversed. The interplay of several poorly understood factors is likely.

Women in the United States are much more likely to become mothers as teens than those in other rich countries. Teen births are particularly likely to be reported as unintended, leading to debate over whether better information on sex and contraception might lead to reductions in teen births. We contribute to this debate by providing causal evidence at the population level. Our causal identification strategy exploits county-level variation in the timing and receipt of federal funding for more comprehensive sex education and data on age-specific teen birth rates at the county level constructed from birth certificate natality data covering all births in the United States. Our results show that federal funding for more comprehensive sex education reduced county-level teen birth rates by more than 3%. Our findings thus complement the mixed evidence to date from randomized control trials on teen pregnancies and births by providing population-level causal evidence that federal funding for more comprehensive sex education led to reductions in teen births.