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Abstract Numerous paleolandslide dams are distributed along the upper reaches of the Jinsha River under the special geological setting of the Tibetan Plateau. A field investigation revealed that the Rongcharong paleoriver-blocking event formed one such dam. Optically stimulated luminescence results show that the paleolandslide occurred in 2.2 ± 0.1 Ka BP and blocked the Jinsha River for approximately 800 years. The failure mechanism of the paleolandslide is the steeply inclined antidip rock topple under self-gravity. A distinct element method-based numerical landslide model is constructed using the topography restoration method. The parameter sensitivity results show that microparameters have important effects on the peak particle velocity and morphology of landslide dams. The optimal microparameters are determined by adopting back analysis based on the geomorphic parameters of the landslide dam. The numerical simulation results show that the sliding process lasts for 65 s; the corresponding peak velocity and runout distance are 28.2 m/s and 742.5 m, respectively; and the landslide forms a dam 1129 m long, 967 m wide, and 105 m high. The genetic mechanism of the paleolandslide is reflected in the calibration process of the microparameters and load type of the numerical simulation. Finally, the implications of microparameters for the longevity of the landslide dam are presented.

This study examines the representation of blocking events in the Southeast Pacific and Southwest Atlantic regions using a set of 13 global climate models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Historical runs were employed to analyze blocking conditions in the recent past climate, spanning from 1985 to 2014, with ERA5 data utilized to represent observed blocking events. The majority of CMIP6 models underestimate the total number of blocking events in the Southeast Pacific. The MPI–ESM1–2–HR and MPI–ESM1–2–LR models come closest to replicating the number of blocking events observed in ERA5, with underestimations of approximately −10% and −9%, respectively. Nonetheless, these models successfully capture the seasonality and overall duration of blocking events, as well as accurately represent the position of blocking heights over the Southeast Pacific. Conversely, CMIP6 models perform poorly in representing blocking climatology in the Southwest Atlantic. These models both overestimate and underestimate the total number of blocking events by more than 25% compared to ERA5. Furthermore, they struggle to reproduce the seasonal distribution of blockings and face challenges in accurately representing the duration of blocking events observed in ERA5.

AbstractThe analysis of winter atmospheric blocking events in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) under climate changes in 1980–2018 was carried out. The results of this analysis indicate a significant increase in the total duration of winter atmospheric blocking events τ in the NH in recent decades. The noted trend was revealed against the background of a rapid increase in the NH surface air temperature T in winter seasons. The parameter of sensitivity of the duration of atmospheric blocking events to changes in the NH surface air temperature in winter seasons for the period 1980–2018 was estimated. The statistically significant estimate obtained means an increase in τ by more than one-and-a-half times with an increase in the mean winter surface air temperature of the NH by 1 K. A more significant relationship with T was obtained for values of τ above the average value of τm for the period 1980–2018, while at τ < τm, the relationship was found to be statistically insignificant. The noted features are associated with differences in different phases of the key modes of climatic variability. In particular, the mean value of the surface air temperature of the NH in winter in the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) within the analyzed period 1980–2018 significantly exceeded the corresponding mean value of T in the negative phase of AMO. At the same time, it was found that the mean value of the duration of winter blocking events in the NH in the positive AMO phase is one-and-a-half times longer than in the negative AMO phase. For winter seasons, the estimates of the relationship between τ and the intensity of the Arctic anticyclonic center of action depending on the AMO phase were obtained.

The occurrence of a Ural blocking (UB) event is an important precursor of severe cold air outbreaks in Siberia and East Asia, and thus is significant to accurately predict UB events. Using subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) models of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), we evaluated the predictability of a persistent UB event on 18 to 26 January 2012. Results showed that the ECCC model was superior to the ECMWF model in predicting the development stage of the UB event ten days in advance, while the ECMWF model had better predictions than the ECCC model for more than ten days in advance and the decaying stage of the UB event. By comparing the dynamic and thermodynamic evolution of the UB event predicted by the two models via the geostrophic vorticity tendency equation and temperature tendency equation, we found that the ECCC model better predicted the vertical vorticity advection, ageostrophic vorticity tendency, the tilting effect, horizontal temperature advection, and adiabatic heating during the development stage, whereas the ECMWF model better predicted the three dynamic and the two thermodynamic terms during the decaying stage. In addition, during both the development and decaying stages, the two models were good (bad) at predicting the vortex stretching term (horizontal vorticity advection), with the PCC between both the predictions and the observations larger (smaller) than +0.70 (+0.10) Thus, we suggest that the prediction of the persistent UB event in the S2S model might be improved by the better prediction of the horizontal vorticity advection.

Blocks are high-impact atmospheric systems of the mid-/high latitudes and have been widely addressed in meteorological and climatological studies. However, the diversity of blocking definitions makes comparison across studies not straightforward. Here, we propose a conceptual model for the life cycle of high pressure systems that recognizes the multifaceted and transient characteristics of these events.Adetection scheme identifies and classifies daily structures, discriminating between subtropical ridges and different types of well-established blocking patterns (omega and dipole-like Rex). This is complemented by a spatiotemporal tracking algorithm, which accounts for transitions between patterns, providing a global catalog of events for 1950–2020. Criteria rely on simple metrics retrieved from one single-level field, and allow implementation in different datasets and climatic realms. Using reanalysis data, we provide illustrative examples, the first global and seasonal climatological assessment of the diversity of high pressure events, their associated impacts, and recent frequency changes. Results reveal that ridge and blocking events affect widespread regions from the subtropics to high latitudes. We find remarkably distinct regional impacts among the considered types, which had been hindered in previous studies by restricted focus on Rex-like structures. This plethora of high pressure systems is much less evident in the Southern Hemisphere, where activity is dominated by subtropical ridges and secluded blocking-like patterns. We report increasing frequencies of low-latitude systems, although with hemispheric and seasonal differences that can only be partially interpreted as a consequence of subtropical expansion. Blocking frequency trends exhibit more heterogeneous and complex spatial patterns, with no evidence of generalized significant changes.

Atmospheric blocking represents an important aspect of the mid-latitude weather variability, but the different processes contributing to its formation and maintenance are not yet fully understood. This study investigates the role that diabatic processes, in particular the release of latent heating in strongly ascending airstreams, play in the dynamics and spatio-temporal variability of blocking in a detailed 38-year global climatological analysis. The results show that the formation and (re-)intensification of blocking are often preceded by latent heating connected to upstream baroclinic developments. While the importance of latent heating varies considerably between individual blocking events and different regions, in particular between ocean and continents, latent heating is generally most important during onset and in more intense and larger blocks. The episodic nature of latent heating during the blocking life cycle, associated with a series of transient cyclones approaching the blocking, can contribute to both the high- (fast onset and fluctuation in intensity and size) and low-frequency (maintenance and quasi-stationarity during maturation phase) properties of blocking anticyclones and provide the required flow amplification in addition to dry-dynamical interaction between synoptic eddies and blocking. This amplification results from a combination of the direct injection of anticyclonic air into the upper-troposphere within cross-isentropic ascending airstreams, setting up large-scale anticyclonic PV anomalies, and the advection of PV by the enhanced divergent outflow at the tropopause (indirect effect). This divergent outflow on the western flank of the blocking anticyclone interacts with the upper-level PV gradient and leads to a westward amplification of the ridge, diminishing the tendency for dissipation and the eastward advection by the background flow, thus contributing to blocking stationarity. Taking into account such diabatic mechanisms in blocking dynamics will be important to improve predictions of blocking and assess future changes in the extratropical large-scale circulation.

Wintertime Ural blocking (UB) has been shown to play an important role in cold extremes over Eurasia, and thus it is useful to investigate the impact of warming over the Barents–Kara Seas (BKS) on the behavior of Ural blocking. Here the response of UB to stepwise tropospheric warming over the BKS is examined using a dry dynamic core model. Nonlinear responses are found in the frequency and local persistence of UB. The frequency and local persistence of the UB increase with the strength of BKS warming in a less strong range and decrease with the further increase of BKS warming, which is linked to the UB propagation influenced by upstream background atmospheric circulation. For a weak BKS warming, the UB becomes more persistent due to its less westward movement associated with intensified upstream zonal wind and meridional potential vorticity gradient (PVy) in the North Atlantic mid-high latitudes, which corresponds to a negative height response over the North Atlantic high latitudes. When BKS warming is strong, a positive height response appears in the early winter stratosphere, and its subsequent downward propagation leads to a negative NAO response or increased Greenland blocking events, which reduces zonal wind and PVy in the high latitudes from North Atlantic to Europe, thus enhancing the westward propagation of UB and reducing its local persistence. The transition to the negative NAO phase and the retrogression of UB are not found when numerically suppressing the downward influence of weakened stratospheric polar vortex, suggesting a crucial role of the stratospheric pathway in nonlinear responses of UB to the early winter BKS warming.

Western Siberia is a large area in Northern Eurasia, which lies between the Urals and the Yenisei River. The atmospheric blocking events are not a frequent phenomenon in this region. Nevertheless, they noticeably affect the weather and living conditions of people there. We have investigated 14 winter blocking events, identified over Western Siberia, over 2004–2016, and have studied their effect on the surface temperature in this region. We have compared each of the 14 blocking events to the corresponding surface temperature anomalies in the north and in the south of Western Siberia. As a result, the temperature anomalies were separated into two groups: (1) dipole, with a positive surface temperature anomaly (or close to the norm) in the north, and with a negative anomaly (or close to the norm) in the south, and (2) non-dipole. Ten events were attributed to Group 1, four events were referred to Group 2. Analyzing the potential temperature on the dynamic tropopause (advection characteristic) showed that the Group 1 events feature strong advection over the investigated territory. In the non-dipole situations from Group 2 Western Siberia are away from strong blocking events.

In this paper, an extended nonlinear multiscale interaction model of blocking events in the equivalent barotropic atmosphere is used to investigate the effect of a slowly varying zonal wind in the meridional direction on dipole blocking that is regarded as a nonlinear Rossby wave packet. It is shown that the meridional gradient of potential vorticity (PVy=∂PV/∂y) prior to the blocking onset, which is related to the background zonal wind and its nonuniform meridional shear, can significantly affect the lifetime, intensity, and north–south asymmetry of dipole blocking, while the blocking dipole itself is driven by preexisting incident synoptic-scale eddies. The magnitude of the background PVy determines the energy dispersion and nonlinearity of blocking. It is revealed that a small background PVy is a prerequisite for strong and long-lived eddy-driven blocking that behaves as a persistent meandering westerly jet stream, while the blocking establishment further reduces the PVy within the blocking region, resulting in a positive feedback between blocking and PVy. When the core of the background westerly jet shifts from higher to lower latitudes, the blocking shows a northwest–southeast-oriented dipole with a strong anticyclonic anomaly to the northwest and a weak cyclonic anomaly to the southeast as its northern pole moves westward more rapidly and has weaker energy dispersion and stronger nonlinearity than its southern pole because of the smaller PVy in higher latitudes. The opposite is true when the background jet shifts toward higher latitudes. The asymmetry of dipole blocking vanishes when the background jet shows a symmetric double-peak structure. Thus, a small prior PVy is a favorable precursor for the occurrence of long-lived and large-amplitude blocking.

In this study, we explore the impact of oceanic moisture fluxes on atmospheric blocks using the ECMWF IFS. Artificially suppressing surface latent heat flux over the Gulf Stream (GS) region reduces atmospheric blocking frequency across the Northern Hemisphere by up to 30%. Affected blocks show a shorter lifespan (−6%), smaller spatial extent (−10%), and reduced intensity (−0.4%), with an increased number of individual blocking anticyclones (+17%). These findings are robust across various blocking detection thresholds. Analysis reveals a qualitatively consistent response across all resolutions, with Tco639 (∼18 km) showing the largest statistically significant change across all blocking characteristics, although differences between resolutions are not statistically significant. Exploring the broader Rossby wave pattern, we observe that diminished moisture fluxes favor eastward propagation and higher zonal wavenumbers, while air‐sea interactions promote stationary and westward‐propagating waves with zonal wavenumber 3. This study underscores the critical role of the GS in modulating atmospheric blocking. Plain Language Summary In our study, we investigated how changes in oceanic moisture, specifically from the Gulf Stream (GS), affect atmospheric blocking events using the ECMWF Integrated Forecast System. By artificially reducing the moisture flux from the GS area, we observed a notable decrease in the occurrence of atmospheric blocks across the Northern Hemisphere‐up to 30%. These blocks also showed changes in their characteristics: they had shorter durations by 6%, were 10% smaller in spatial size, and had a slight decrease in intensity, alongside a 17% increase in their detection rates. Our findings were consistent across different methods of identifying blocks. We also discovered that the model's resolution influences the observed changes, with coarser resolutions (larger than approximately 18 km) not showing significant alterations in some blocking traits despite the overall frequency reduction. Further analysis into Rossby wave patterns revealed that reduced moisture flux tends to favor faster eastward‐moving patterns with shorter wavelengths, whereas interactions between the air and sea support more stationary or westward‐moving waves, particularly those with a zonal wavenumber of 3. This highlights the crucial role that moisture from western boundary currents like the GS plays in the development and behavior of atmospheric blocking patterns. Key Points Gulf Stream (GS) moisture flux suppression reduces atmospheric blocking across the Northern Hemisphere GS moisture fluxes generate larger jet stream perturbations, fostering faster westward‐propagating Rossby waves Higher resolution models enhance signal transport from the boundary layer to the upper troposphere