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"Brexit referendum"
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Not Just a Gender Numbers Game: How Board Gender Diversity Affects Corporate Risk Disclosure
2022
This paper examines how board gender diversity affects corporate risk disclosure. We exploit an exogenous shock on firms’ risk environment created by the United Kingdom’s vote to leave the European Union (Brexit) and analyze related risk disclosure in annual reports of public firms in the UK. Using this unique setting, we mitigate concerns about omitted variables in concurrent studies. The findings suggest that board gender diversity is positively related to corporate risk disclosure. However, our results also indicate that the proportion of female directors needs to reach a critical mass to impact the risk disclosure decision. Moreover, we find lower bid–ask spreads immediately after the referendum date for those firms that disclosed Brexit-related risks in their annual reports prior to the vote. Collectively, our results are consistent with board gender diversity promoting the disclosure of decision-relevant information through improved board group dynamics.
Journal Article
Return and volatility spillover between India, UK, USA and European stock markets: The Brexit impact
by
Natchimuthu, Natchimuthu
,
G Nagarakatte, Sangeetha
in
EU membership
,
Referendums
,
Securities markets
2022
The 2016 Brexit referendum created potential turmoil in financial markets. The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of the Brexit referendum on the return and volatility spillover between the EU, the UK, and the USA stock markets and the Indian stock market during the pre- and post-Brexit referendum period. The VAR and bivariate GARCH BEKK models were employed. The study results suggest that before the Brexit referendum, Indian stock market returns made no significant return spillover on the other markets. On the contrary, following the referendum, Indian stock returns significantly spilled over to France, Germany, the UK, and the USA stock market returns. The study results also identified a substantial increase in the bidirectional volatility spillover between India-France, India-UK, and India-USA during the post-Brexit referendum period. Therefore, the investors’ opportunity to invest simultaneously in India, UK, EU, and US stock markets for portfolio diversification is limited. India was affected mainly by its own past shocks before the Brexit referendum. However, after the Brexit referendum, Indian markets are getting more and more integrated with other markets. In order to reap the diversification benefits, a prudent investment strategy will need to be developed in the future, especially during times of economic and political uncertainty and market crisis.
Journal Article
Deglobalization and the value of geographic diversification: evidence from Brexit
by
Tunyi, Abongeh A
,
Hussain, Tanveer
,
Areneke, Geofry
in
Abnormal returns
,
Competitive advantage
,
Costs
2024
PurposeThis paper aims to explore the value of geographic diversification in the context of deglobalization, drawing evidence from a quasi-natural experiment – the Brexit referendum that took place on 23 June 2016 in the UK.Design/methodology/approachThis study applies an event study methodology to estimate the impact of the Brexit vote on a cross-section of firms with varying levels of geographic diversification – undiversified UK firms, UK firms with significant operations in the European Union (EU) and globally diversified UK firms. This study deploys a Heckman two-stage regression approach to address sample selection bias.FindingsThis study finds that undiversified UK firms experienced negative cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) around the Brexit referendum. The value of UK firms with majority sales within the UK declined by 0.9 percentage points, on average, in the three days centred on the Brexit referendum. In contrast, UK firms that are globally diversified, with the majority of sales within the EU are unaffected, while diversified firms in the rest of the world generated positive CARs of 1.8 percentage points over the same period. These results are robust to firm characteristics, selection bias and alternative measures of CARs and diversification.Research limitations/implicationsThis study is subject to some limitations that open avenues for future work. There are a few available proxies of diversification and further work on developing other proxies is much needed. Further work may also examine the long-term impact of diversification on UK firms. This study considered Brexit as a quasi-natural experiment, and this study could be applied to other deglobalization events like COVID-19 and can enhance the generalizability of diversification strategy in the deglobalized world. Findings may stimulate future work to explore how another form of diversification – product diversification has affected firm returns around Brexit. Finally, this study has focused on the UK as its base case. It may be interesting to corroborate the findings by exploring the impact of Brexit on European firms, who hitherto Brexit, had some operations in the UK.Practical implicationsThis work offers some insights for policymakers and regulators around the impact of deglobalization on local firms. Findings suggest that these trends significantly negatively impact the most vulnerable firms (smaller firms with less global reach), while their larger counterparts with significant global reach might be insulated. This finding is important for determining the nature of support needed by different firms in times of deglobalization. The work also offers insights to managers of firms operating in countries where there are real prospects of deglobalization. Specifically, the work highlights the importance of geographic diversification when free movement of goods, services and people is restricted.Originality/valueThis study shows that a certain group of globally diversified firms earned significantly higher returns from the prospect of the UK leaving the EU, thereby highlighting the value of geographic diversification in a time of deglobalization.
Journal Article
Making Social Democrats
2018,2023
This book, a collection of essays by some of Britain's leading academics, public intellectuals and political practitioners, seeks to engage with the 'big picture' of British social democracy, both historical and contemporary, and point to grounds for greater optimism for its future prospects.
Market expectation shifts in option-implied volatilities in the US and UK stock markets during the Brexit vote
by
Bielykh, Artem
,
Meng Ren, Dong
,
Kubatko, Oleksandr
in
Black swan event
,
EU membership
,
Presidential elections
2021
This paper investigates the effect of the Brexit vote on the connection between UK stock market expectations and US stock market returns. To gauge UK stock market expectations, the option-implied volatilities of the FTSE 100 index are calculated in the period starting five months before and ending four months after the Brexit referendum. To keep the analysis “clean”, it stops right before the 2016 US presidential elections. It uses an OLS regression to estimate the change in the relationship between US and UK stock market expectations.The main findings show that the US and UK stock markets became somewhat less integrated four months after the Brexit referendum compared to the five months before it. The S&P 500 Index returns have a statistically significant impact on implied volatilities of the FTSE 100 only before the Brexit referendum. However, the British risk-free rate (LIBOR) became a statistically significant factor affecting FTSE 100 implied volatilities only after Brexit. This analysis may be used by decision-makers in the money management industry to act appropriately during Black Swan events. When UK citizens unexpectedly voted in favor of Brexit, the risk-free rate dropped, making it cheaper to invest, increasing the Sharpe ratios of equity portfolios. Coupled with increased uncertainty, this caused portfolio reallocations. In turn, expected volatility measured by options-implied volatility increased. AcknowledgmentThe authors would like to thank Olesia Verchenko for critique, a KSE M.A., external defense reviewer for helpful comments.
Journal Article
The Paradox of Brexit and the Consequences of Taking Back Control
2022
Memorable events of the 21st century that will be rightly or wrongly be remembered includes the global financial crisis of 2007/08, the election of Mr Donald Trump as President of the United States of America, and Brexit (the United Kingdom (UK) voting to leave the European Union) in 2016. Others include the emergence of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, and the war between Russia and Ukraine. Since 2016, Brexit has continued to dominate global politics. Conceptually, this article explores the Brexit dilemma, the formalization of Brexit agreements, and the post-Brexit impact on the economy and society. How did Brexit happen? What are the underlying causes of Brexit? Is Brexit connected to Euroscepticism and populism? By evaluating these contexts, important issues and debates can be reconciled to advance knowledge on Brexit, UK politics, the regional political system, and the rise of populism. This article is currently relevant since it coincides with an obvious upsurge in interest in the post-Brexit Global Britain.
Journal Article
The World Isn’t Fair, but Shouldn’t Elections Be? Evaluating Prospective Beliefs about the Fairness of Elections and Referenda
2022
Almost all academic literature about the causes and consequences of fairness of elections and referenda is based on retrospective evaluations. One of the strongest findings of such studies is that nonvoting is higher among citizens who retrospectively perceived an election as unfair. However, on logical grounds, it is impossible to attribute lower rates of voting to retrospectively perceived unfairness because at the time of the vote citizens can only rely on their prospective expectations of fairness. Moreover, it is well documented that retrospective evaluations are strongly influenced by the outcome of the election which is, at the time of voting, still unknown. In view of the dearth of earlier studies on prospective views of electoral fairness, this article presents the first major exploratory analyses of determinants and consequences of prospective expectations of electoral fairness. Using data from Britain about expectations of fairness of three general elections and two referenda in the period between 2014 and 2019, it shows that the public hold mixed views about the fairness they expect to find when voting. The article demonstrates that these prospective fairness beliefs are sometimes noticeably different to retrospective beliefs in terms of their predictors. Moreover, in sharp contrast to literature based on retrospective evaluations, this article also finds that prospective evaluations do not importantly affect the decision to vote. These findings have important implications for how we understand and evaluate the inclusiveness of elections.
Journal Article
Londres tras el Brexit: la campaña de comunicación #LondonIsOpen en defensa de la identidad de la ciudad
by
Blay Arráez, Rocío
,
López Font, Lorena
,
Antón Carrillo, Elvira
in
Campaña comunicación
,
citizen participation
,
city identity
2019
Introduction: The starting point of this study is a historical event, most of UK population voted in favour of exiting the European Union on 23 June 2016. However, the result of the referendum in London was to stay with 75.3% of votes. This shows a scenario contrary to the city’s values, where the multicultural aspect and diversity are part of its identity. This research selects as case study, the communication campaign launched by London mayor, Sadiq Khan, to counteract the Brexit. The campaign #LondonIsOpen as creative expression where citizens have revolutionized institutional actions. Methodology: the content analysis of the audiovisual pieces is proposed as qualitative methodology, with the following objectives: 1. To identify innovative methodologies, 2. To describe collectives involved, 3. To analyse the efficacy of actions. Results and conclusions: Conclusions present what have been the keys of the massive participation, the paradox of the fact that the initiative comes from a political leader and the credibility achieved by his campaign.
Introducción: Esta investigación toma como punto de partida un hecho histórico, la mayoría de la población de UK votó salir de la Unión Europea el 23 de junio de 2016. Sin embargo, el resultado del referéndum en Londres fue permanecer con un 75,3% de votos. Esto presenta un escenario contrario a los valores de la ciudad, donde lo multicultural y la diversidad forman parte de su identidad. Este trabajo selecciona como caso de estudio la campaña de comunicación iniciada por el alcalde de Londres, Sadiq Khan, para contrarrestar el Brexit. La campaña #LondonIsOpen como expresión creadora donde los ciudadanos han revolucionado las acciones institucionales. Metodología: Se plantea como metodología cualitativa, el análisis de contenido de las piezas audiovisuales, cuyos objetivos son: 1. Detectar metodologías innovadoras, 2. Describir los colectivos involucrados, 3. Analizar la eficacia de las acciones. Resultados y conclusiones: Las conclusiones presentan cuáles han sido las claves de la gran participación, la paradoja de que la iniciativa surja de un líder político y la credibilidad que ha obtenido su campaña.
Journal Article
Dialoguing with Data and Data Reduction: An Observational, Narrowing-Down Approach to Social Media Network Analysis
2021
In this article, we propose an observational, narrowing-down approach to analysing social media networks and developing research design by the joint use of computational algorithms and researchers’ inductive exploration and interpretive explanations. The Brexit referendum on Twitter study is used to illustrate how we applied this approach in practice. In this study, observation helped us combine the strengths of computational statistical analysis and modelling and of inductive inquiries. Computational algorithms and tools including Elasticsearch, Kibana and Gephi provided us with an “ethnographic field” where we were able to inductively observe the relationships among users and to reduce the amount of data down to a level in which we could intuitively understand these relationships. In traditional observational studies, talking to human subjects and observing their interactions in a research site are important to ethnographers. Likewise, it is useful for social science researchers to dialogue with data, observe human relationships embodied in the data and reconstructed by computational tools, and understand these relationships through closely examining a small batch of meaningful data that is extracted from large-scale data. In this case study, adopting the proposed approach, we found the importance of political disagreement leading to a tale of two politicians, in which pro-Brexit users denounced @David_Cameron but legitimised @Nigel_Farage.
Journal Article
The impacts of international political and economic events on Japanese financial markets
2020
Information about the possibilities of changes in national and international macroeconomic variables affects the expectations and behavior of individuals and firms more quickly than real changes in those macroeconomic variables. In this research, we investigate the impacts of international information (news) on the financial markets in Japan. We examine how news about the results of the Brexit referendum (BR) and the United States presidential election (USE) affected foreign exchange rates and stock market indexes. This research reveals evidence of statistically significant changes in exchange rates and stock market indexes within two weeks after the BR and USE, statistically significant changes in the exchange rate variance within the first week after the BR, and changes in the causality relationship between the variables after each event.
Journal Article