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Local Government Forecast Practices: Time Horizon and Budgetary Influence
Over the past thirty years, four surveys have analyzed local government forecast practices, with the most recent being over a decade old. This article builds on the prior surveys with a novel 2018 survey dataset from the Government Finance Officers Association to examine the factors related to the adoption of a particular forecast time horizon and the perceived influence of forecasts on the final adopted budget. Estimates of ordered logistic regressions with predictive margins indicate that certain budget processes and the length of time since a government adopted a new budget process are associated with forecast practices.
Journal Article
Fiscal Marksmanship of Child Budget and its Implications for Child Development: Evidence from India
This paper analyses the nature and magnitude of fiscal marksmanship or budget forecasting errors in Child Budget in India by a case study of Karnataka State. The implications of fiscal marksmanship are analysed for child development within the framework of Child Budget. Level of multidimensional child development is measured by 26 indicators, representing child education, health, nutrition, protection and participation and in the frameworks of child rights and UN-Sustainable Development Goals 2030. Main results show that Karnataka State’s good fiscal management is accompanied by a lack of fiscal marksmanship in Child Budget. Other things being equal, a perfect fiscal marksmanship implies a gain of about 0.3% point in composite index of child development. This implies that achievement of fiscal marksmanship has a positive effect on child development through Child Budget. Lessons from this case study are of general relevance and applicability at national level and for other states in India as well as for other countries which aim at child development through their Child Budget.
Journal Article
The role of economic and political factors in budget forecasting errors: evidence from Turkey’s metropolitan municipalities for the period 2011-2022
This study examines budget forecasting errors in 15 major metropolitan municipalities in Turkey for the period 2011-2022 using a random effects panel regression model. The dependent variables include budget surplus, inflation, population growth, unemployment, GDP per capita, export-to-import ratio, mayor's political party, mayor's re-candidacy status, and election periods. Findings show that in the revenue model, budget surplus and unemployment reduce errors, while inflation, population growth, and election years increase them. In the expenditure model, unemployment reduces errors, whereas inflation and election periods increase them. This research is the first of its kind in Turkey, aiming to fill a gap in the literature by identifying factors contributing to budget errors. It highlights the importance of local influences on budget accuracy and seeks to guide budget preparers in improving their forecasts, ultimately enhancing fiscal management and public service delivery.
Journal Article
Modern budget forecasting in the American states
This book, by Michael J. Brogan, examines government budgeting through the lens of public budget forecast errors. In examining this aspect of the budgetary process, Brogan helps readers understand levels of political and financial risk that policymakers are willing to accept in estimating the likelihood of accurate budget projections. This title is noteworthy in its innovative, accessible approach to examining the budget process through an analysis of forecast errors. Unlike most public budgeting books, which focus primarily on the technical aspects of budgeting or on the politics of the budget process, this book bridges the technical and political aspects of budgeting, thereby providing a more comprehensive analysis of contemporary issues and research in public budgetary matters. In light of the current financial crisis in the United States, this book is crucial for providing readers with a comprehensive review of the limits of budget projections and how political forces shape the forecasting process. Throughout the text, readers are presented with relevant state-specific mini cases. The mini cases highlight some of the difficulties in projecting future revenue and spending patterns, as well as the political conflict that can ensue. The empirical findings, mini cases, and arguments presented throughout this book are intended to empower readers, giving them the expertise needed to better understand how uncertainty in public budget forecasts affects the budget process. Ultimately, this knowledge can help citizens connect the financial management of a state with its governing patterns.
eBook
How can independent fiscal institutions make the most of assessing past economic forecasts?
Forecasts of economic variables like GDP, inflation and unemployment are the starting points for budget planning. Most OECD countries have designated an independent fiscal institutions to scrutinise or endorse the economic forecasts prepared by finance ministries. Although external assessments of past forecast errors can help uncover systematic bias or underperformance in official forecasts, there are several conceptual and practical problems with doing so that limit their usefulness. This paper describes the limitations of ex post forecast assessments and offers some suggestions on how independent fiscal institutions can add the most value in providing them.
Journal Article
Medical Store Management: An Integrated Economic Analysis of a Tertiary Care Hospital in Central India
Economic analysis plays a pivotal role in the management of medical store. The main objectives of this study were to consider always better control-vital, essential and desirable (ABC-VED) analysis with economic order quantity (EOQ), comparison of indexed cost and the actual cost, and to assess the expenditure for the forthcoming years. Based on cost and criticality, a matrix of nine groups by combining ABC and VED analysis was formulated. Drug categories were narrowed down for prioritization to direct supervisory monitoring. The subgroups AE and AV of the categories category I and II should be ordered based on EOQ. The difference between the actual annual drug expenditure (ADE) and the derived indexed cost using the cost inflation index (CII) was calculated. Linear regression was used to assess the expenditure for the forth coming years. The total ADE for the financial year of 2010-2011 was Rs. 1,91,44,253 which was only 7.68% of annual hospital expenditure. Using the inflation index, the indexed cost of acquisition of ADE for year 2010-2011 was Rs. 1,95,10,387. The difference between the two was estimated to be 2.11%. Thus, the CII justifies the demand of increased budget for next year and prompts us for cautious use of drugs. By taking into consideration the ADE of last 10 years, we have forecasted the budget for forthcoming years which will help significantly for making policies according to the available budget.
Journal Article
More than words: Potential roles for independent fiscal institutions (IFIs) in green budgeting
Budgetary frameworks and instruments are increasingly being used to support and accelerate progress towards climate and environmental goals. This paper provides an overview of how OECD countries are implementing green budgeting and potential roles for independent fiscal institutions (IFIs) in monitoring these initiatives or in providing climate-related analysis as part of their existing mandates. It concludes with some key questions for the path ahead.
Journal Article