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Long-Range State-Level 2024 Presidential Election Forecast: How Can You Forecast an Election When You Don’t Know Who the Candidates Are Yet?
This model generates projections of the national popular vote and Electoral College votes a year in advance of the U.S. Presidential Election, before each party’s nominees are known. It forecasts the Democratic two-party popular vote in each state and the District of Columbia. It uses four independent variables: national head-to-head polling data 13 months prior to the election, the states’ prior election result, a party-adjusted home state advantage dummy variable, and a party adjusted variable simply counting the number of consecutive terms the current incumbent party has occupied the White House. New to this year’s model is a polling average approach that encompasses all possible candidate matchups for whom data is available. This year’s forecast suggests a distinct possibility of an Electoral College misfire benefitting the Republicans.
Journal Article
Florida Law Denying Vote to Ex-Felons Faces Critical Court Date; February 15 Summary Judgment Hearing in Johnson v. Bush
The federal class action lawsuit which seeks to overturn a lifetime voting ban affecting more than 600,000 Floridians has a critical court hearing this week. Governor Jeb Bush and the Clemency Board are being sued for violating the Constitution and the Voting Rights Act of 1965. The hearing on the cross motions for summary judgment could decide the case. Nancy Northup of the Brennan Center for Justice at NYU School of Law is lead attorney for the case. Co-counsel with the Brennan Center is Lori Outzs Borgen of the Lawyers' Committee for Civil Rights Under Law, and Florida civil rights attorney James Green.
Book
Media Coverage, Public Interest, and Support in the 2016 Republican Invisible Primary
Donald Trump’s success in the 2016 presidential primary election prompted scrutiny for the role of news media in elections. Was Trump successful because news media publicized his campaign and crowded out coverage of other candidates? We examine the dynamic relationships between media coverage, public interest, and support for candidates in the time preceding the 2016 Republican presidential primary to determine (1) whether media coverage drives support for candidates at the polls and (2) whether this relationship was different for Trump than for other candidates. We find for all candidates that the quantity of media coverage had significant and long-lasting effects on public interest in that candidate. Most candidates do not perform better in the polls following increases in media coverage. Trump is an exception to this finding, receiving a modest polling bump following an increase in media coverage. These findings suggest that viability cues from news media contributed to Trump’s success and can be influential in setting the stage in primary elections.
Journal Article
what good news looks like
Sociology seems intent on becoming a “dismal science,” but there’s good news to be found around every corner.
Journal Article
Politics, Language, and Cultural Identity
Due to a surge in racism and anti-immigrant sentiment that intensified during Trump’s campaign and presidency, some Americans have reacted to people speaking Spanish in public with hostility as well as verbal and even physical aggression over the last few years in the United States. A particular group of victims of language and identity discrimination has been Puerto Ricans, who are, ironically, American citizens. Drawing on historical perspectives, language and identity attitudes, the politicization of language, and linguistic racism approaches, the present study administered a language and identity questionnaire to 103 Puerto Ricans in Detroit, Michigan (DetroitRicans). Despite the rise of linguistic racism in the United States, 90.3% of respondents said that being able to speak Spanish was necessary to validate their Puertoricanness. In addition, 89% of this study’s participants agreed that not teaching Spanish to children was denying them their Puerto Rican culture and identity. DetroitRicans also identified Spanish as their mother tongue, their roots, and their homeland, whereas they identified English as the language of work, school, and economic advancement. The findings agree with the language and identity perceptions of Puerto Ricans living on the Island and in Central Florida; they diverge from the traditional perspectives of Boricuas in New York, North Philadelphia, and Chicago, who do not generally consider Spanish a vital part of their Puerto Rican identity.
Journal Article
Teaching Students to Hear the Other Side: Using Web Design and Election Events to Build Empathy in the Political Science Classroom
Research suggests that technology in the political science classroom may enhance student experiences and help instructors achieve their student-learning outcomes. Yet, how technology may foster more empathy for opposing viewpoints—an essential characteristic of deliberative democracy—has received less attention. This article outlines an assignment that required students to use WordPress to construct a campaign website for an opposition candidate and write a paper justifying their content and design choices. After completing this assignment, students demonstrated increased knowledge of the candidates for whom they designed websites. Additionally, they displayed a greater level of confidence in the competence of those candidates and a greater understanding of why the candidates would appeal to certain voters. Students also expressed a belief that the assignment provided a tangible professional skill that they would use in the future, and they indicated that their belief in the demonstrated utility of the assignment made it more enjoyable and engaging. This assignment provides one example of how technology may be used in the political science classroom in a way that facilitates student engagement and democratic citizenship, while also helping the instructor to gauge students’ ability to apply course content to contemporary events.
Journal Article