Explore the vast range of titles available.

Many historical processes exhibit recurrent patterns of change. Century-long periods of population expansion come before long periods of stagnation and decline; the dynamics of prices mirror population oscillations; and states go through strong expansionist phases followed by periods of state failure, endemic sociopolitical instability, and territorial loss. Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov explore the dynamics and causal connections between such demographic, economic, and political variables in agrarian societies and offer detailed explanations for these long-term oscillations--what the authors call secular cycles.

The Principle of Large Numbers indicates that macro fluctuations have weak microfoundations; persistent business cycles and interrupted technologies can be better characterized by macro vitality and meso foundations. Economic growth is limited by market extent and ecological constraints. The trade-off between stability and complexity is the foundation of cultural diversity and mixed economies. The new science of complexity sheds light on the sources of economic instability and complexity. This book consists of the major work of Professor Ping Chen, a pioneer in studying economic chaos and economic complexity. They are selected from works completed since 1987, including original research on the evolutionary dynamics of the division of labour, empirical and theoretical studies of economic chaos and stochastic models of collective behavior. Offering a new perspective on market instability and the changing world order, the basic pillars in equilibrium economics are challenged by solid evidence of economic complexity and time asymmetry, including Friedman’s theory of exogenous money and efficient market, the Frisch model of noise-driven cycles, the Lucas model of microfoundations and rational expectations, the Black-Scholes model of option pricing, and the Coase theory of transaction costs. Throughout, a general theory based on complex evolutionary economics is developed, which integrates different insights from Marx, Marshall, Schumpeter, Keynes and offers a new understanding of the evolutionary history of division of labour. This book will be of interest to postgraduates and researchers in Economics, including macroeconomics, financial economics, advanced econometrics and economic methodology. 1. Introduction Part 1 Methodological review: economic complexity, equilibrium illusion, and evolutionary dynamics 2. Equilibrium illusion, economic complexity, and evolutionary foundation of economic analysis (2008) 3. Evolutionary economic dynamics: persistent business cycles, disruptive technology, and the trade-off between stability and complexity (2005) Part 2 Macro vitality: trend-cycle separation, economic chaos and persistent cycles 4. Empirical and Theoretical Evidence of Economic Chaos (1988) 5. Searching for Economic Chaos: A Challenge to Econometric Practice and Nonlinear Tests (1993) 6. A Random Walk or Color Chaos on the Stock Market? - Time-Frequency Analysis of S&P Indexes (1996) 7. Trends, Shocks, Persistent Cycles in Evolving Economy: Business Cycle Measurement in Time-Frequency Representation (1996) Part 3 Micro interaction and population dynamics: learning, communication, and market share competition 8. Origin of Division of Labor and Stochastic Mechanism of Differentiation (1987) 9. Imitation, Learning, and Communication: Central or Polarized Patterns in Collective Actions (1991) 10. Needham's Question and China's Evolution - Cases of Nonequilibrium Social Transition (1990) 11. China's Challenge to Economic Orthodoxy: Asian Reform as an Evolutionary, Self-Organizing Process (1993) Part 4 Equilibrium illusion and meso foundation: perpetual motion machine, representative agents, and organization diversity 12. The Frisch Model of Business Cycles - A Spurious Doctrine, but a Mysterious Success (1999) 13. Microfoundations of Macroeconomic Fluctuations and the Laws of Probability Theory: the Principle of Large Numbers vs. Rational Expectations Arbitrage (2002) 14. Complexity of Transaction Costs and Evolution of Corporate Governance (2007) Part 5 Market instability, natural experiments, and government policy 15. Market Instability and Economic Complexity: Theoretical Lessons from Transition Experiments (2006) 16. From an Efficient to a Viable International Financial Market (2009) Epilogue Ping Chen is a Professor at the National School of Development at Peking University in Bejing, China.

\"This book explains in simple settings the fundamental ideas of financial market modelling and derivative pricing, using the no-arbitrage principle. Relatively elementary mathematics leads to powerful notions and techniques - such as viability, completeness, self-financing and replicating strategies, arbitrage and equivalent martingale measures - which are directly applicable in practice. The general methods are applied in detail to pricing and hedging European and American options within the Cox-Ross-Rubinstein (CRR) binomial tree model. A simple approach to discrete interest rate models is included, which, though elementary, has some novel features. All proofs are written in a user-friendly manner, with each step carefully explained and following a natural flow of thought. In this way the student learns how to tackle new problems\"-- Provided by publisher.

Full of practical help on how to build the best, most flexible, and easy-to-use business models that can be used to analyze the upsides and downsides of any business project, this new edition of the Guide to Business Modeling is essential reading for the twenty-first century business leader. This radically revised guide to the increasingly important fine art of building business models using spreadsheets, the book describes models for evaluating everything from a modest business development to a major acquisition. • Fully Excel 2010 aligned with enhanced Excel and business content • More model evaluation techniques to help with business decision-making • Helpful key point summaries • New website from which model examples given in the book can be downloaded For anyone who wants to get ahead in business and especially for those with bottom-line responsibilities, this new edition of Guide to Business Modeling is the essential guide to how to build spreadsheet models for assessing business risks and opportunities.

\"Predictive modeling involves the use of data to forecast future events. It relies on capturing relationships between explanatory variables and the predicted variables from past occurrences and exploiting this to predict future outcomes. Forecasting future financial events is a core actuarial skill - actuaries routinely apply predictive-modeling techniques in insurance and other risk-management applications. This book is for actuaries and other financial analysts who are developing their expertise in statistics and wish to become familiar with concrete examples of predictive modeling. The book also addresses the needs of more seasoned practicing analysts who would like an overview of advanced statistical topics that are particularly relevant in actuarial practice. Predictive Modeling Applications in Actuarial Science emphasizes life-long learning by developing tools in an insurance context, providing the relevant actuarial applications, and introducing advanced statistical techniques that can be used by analysts to gain a competitive advantage in situations with complex data\"-- Provided by publisher.

Volume 3 begins with an introduction to which are added four chapters focused on modeling and flow simulation in an environment in 2 or 3 dimensions (2D or 3D). They deal with different cases taken from situations found in the field. A conclusion comes close this third book: * The different software used in this third volume * Computer simulation of discrete flows * Mixed flow simulation * Flows in 3D and the evacuation simulation * Flows in 3D for conveying and storage The conclusion discusses the future developments of the software and their integration into society. At the end of each volume is a bibliography and a list of web links. There is also a glossary explaining some abbreviations, acronyms and some very specific terminology of logistics and operations research.

Originally published in 1982. This book deals with exchange-rate determination and the implications of floating rate regimes for the time paths of prices and quantities. It develops a class of stochastic equilibrium models of the open economy operating under flexible exchange rates, assuming that agents are endowed with rational expectations but do not possess full current information as to the state of the world. Chapters look at a model’s response to economic disturbances, the effect on non-traded goods, and cyclical variations of the terms of trade. The final chapter considers a model to investigate purchasing parity issues. 1. Introduction and Overview 2. Fluctuating Exchange Rates and the International Transmission of Economic Disturbances 3. \"Real\" and Nominal Exchange Rates in an Uncertain World: The Traded Non-Traded Goods Nexus 4. Cyclical Variations of the Exchange Rate and the Terms of Trade 5. Rational Expectations, Purchasing Power Parity and the Business Cycle