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Chaotics : an agenda for business and society in the 21st century
To what degree are our lives in reality governed by misguided notions? Do businesses in fact succeed by chance? Are societal and business forces and their effects perhaps not really understood at all? According to the three international authors who have come together to write this book, the real world cannot be understood in terms of conventional deterministic philosophies nor even of standard chaos theory. A new discipline is needed, one that recognizes that complexity in itself has a powerful but subtle role to play. The new discipline of \"chaotics\" introduced by the authors will alter our thinking about the real forces of change in our society. Beginning with the foundations of the discipline, their book applies chaotics to business and wealth creation and to society itself.
Advances in Business and Management Forecasting
The objective of this research annual is to present state-of-the-art studies in the application of forecasting methodologies to such areas as sales, marketing and strategic decision making. It is the hope and direction of this research annual to become an applications and practitioner oriented publication.
eBook
Consumption-based forecasting and planning : predicting changing demand patterns in the new digital economy
Discover a new, demand-centric framework for forecasting and demand planning In Consumption-Based Forecasting and Planning , thought leader and forecasting expert Charles W.Chase delivers a practical and novel approach to retail and consumer goods companies demand planning process.
eBook
Out-of-Sample Equity Premium Prediction: Combination Forecasts and Links to the Real Economy
Welch and Goyal (2008) find that numerous economic variables with in-sample predictive ability for the equity premium fail to deliver consistent out-of-sample forecasting gains relative to the historical average. Arguing that model uncertainty and instability seriously impair the forecasting ability of individual predictive regression models, we recommend combining individual forecasts. Combining delivers statistically and economically significant out-of-sample gains relative to the historical average consistently over time. We provide two empirical explanations for the benefits of forecast combination: (i) combining forecasts incorporates information from numerous economic variables while substantially reducing forecast volatility; (ii) combination forecasts are linked to the real economy.
Journal Article
Herramienta de planificación y presupuestación para pruebas de tuberculosis y tuberculosis farmacorresistente
En esta guia se explica el funcionamiento de la herramienta de planificacion y presupuestacion para el diagnostico de la tuberculosis (TB), que facilita el calculo sistematico de las cantidades y los costos de los productos para los paises que planifican encargar productos de diagnostico e insumos de laboratorio del catalogo del Servicio Farmaceutico Mundial. La herramienta calcula las cantidades de productos requeridas, para lo cual usa el consumo anterior o metodos de proyeccion basados en la morbilidad para todos los productos de diagnostico de TB respaldados por la Organizacion Mundial de la Salud, a fin de establecer metas para la ampliacion de la escala de acuerdo con las caracteristicas epidemiologicas del pais y a partir de algoritmos. En las hojas de calculo de Excel se proporcionan instrucciones preliminares, datos epidemiologicos y algoritmos, metodos de pruebas de diagnostico e informacion sobre bioseguridad, limpieza, mantenimiento y reparacion de equipos, asi como un resumen del presupuesto.
eBook
Introduction to financial forecasting in investment analysis
\"Forecasting--the art and science of predicting future outcomes--has become a crucial skill in business and economic analysis. This volume introduces the reader to the tools, methods, and techniques of forecasting, specifically as they apply to financial and investing decisions.
Book
Forecasting fundamentals
This book is for everyone who wants to make better forecasts. This book is not about mathematics and statistics. It is about following a well-established forecasting process to create and implement good forecasts. This is true whether you are forecasting global markets, product demand, competitive strategy, or market disruptions. Today, most forecasts are generated using software. However, no amount of technology and statistics can compensate for a poor forecasting process. Forecasting is not just about generating a number. Forecasters need to understand the problems they are trying to solve. They also need to follow a process that is justifiable to other parties and be implemented in practice. This is what this book is about. Business leaders know that accurate forecasting is a critical organizational capability. Forecasting is predicting the future, and the list of what needs to be predicted to run a world-class organization is endless. Forecasting goes well beyond simply predicting demand or sales. Accurate forecasts are essential for identifying new market opportunities, forecasting risks, events, supply chain disruptions, innovation, competition, market growth, and trends. It also includes the ability to conduct \"what-if \" analysis to understand the tradeoff implications of decisions. Companies can navigate this daunting landscape and improve their forecasts by following some well-established principles and bearing in mind certain caveats to conventional wisdom. This book is written to provide the fundamentals business leaders need in order to make good forecasts. These fundamentals hold true regardless of what is being forecast and what technology is being used. This book provides the basic foundational principles all companies need to achieve competitive forecast accuracy.
eBook