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A multi-omics approach, integrating metagenomics, metatranscriptomics and metaproteomics, determines the phylogenetic composition of the microbial community and assesses its functional potential and activity along a thaw transition from intact permafrost to thermokast bog. Multi-omics survey of frozen-soil microbiomes The application of the various individual 'omics' tools to the study of microbial ecosystems has dramatically altered our view of their constituents and ecology over the past decade. Here Janet Jansson and colleagues develop an multi-omics approach, integrating metagenomics, metatranscriptomics and metaproteomics to analyse microbial gene expression in frozen soils that form part of the Alaska Peatland Experiment. The results show that the community shifts along a natural thaw gradient from permafrost to seasonally thawed active layer to thermokarst bog and the authors find that there is a transition in the potential for several biogeochemical cycles with thaw, including those for denitrification, nitrate reduction, iron reduction and methane oxidation. Over 20% of Earth’s terrestrial surface is underlain by permafrost with vast stores of carbon that, once thawed, may represent the largest future transfer of carbon from the biosphere to the atmosphere 1 . This process is largely dependent on microbial responses, but we know little about microbial activity in intact, let alone in thawing, permafrost. Molecular approaches have recently revealed the identities and functional gene composition of microorganisms in some permafrost soils 2 , 3 , 4 and a rapid shift in functional gene composition during short-term thaw experiments 3 . However, the fate of permafrost carbon depends on climatic, hydrological and microbial responses to thaw at decadal scales 5 , 6 . Here we use the combination of several molecular ‘omics’ approaches to determine the phylogenetic composition of the microbial communities, including several draft genomes of novel species, their functional potential and activity in soils representing different states of thaw: intact permafrost, seasonally thawed active layer and thermokarst bog. The multi-omics strategy reveals a good correlation of process rates to omics data for dominant processes, such as methanogenesis in the bog, as well as novel survival strategies for potentially active microbes in permafrost.

The climate is changing, and the Eastern Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region is vulnerable to the consequences. Many of the region's countries are facing warmer temperatures, a changing hydrology, and more extremes, droughts, floods, heat waves, windstorms, and forest fires. This book presents an overview of what adaptation to climate change might mean for Eastern Europe and Central Asia. It starts with a discussion of emerging best-practice adaptation planning around the world and a review of the latest climate projections. It then discusses possible actions to improve resilience organized around impacts on health, natural resources (water, biodiversity, and the coastal environment), the 'unbuilt' environment (agriculture and forestry), and the built environment (infrastructure and housing). The last chapter concludes with a discussion of two areas in great need of strengthening given the changing climate: disaster preparedness and hydro-meteorological services. This book has four key messages: a) contrary to popular perception, Eastern Europe and Central Asia face significant threats from climate change, with a number of the most serious risks already in evidence; b) vulnerability over the next 10 to 20 years is likely to be dominated by socioeconomic factors and legacy issues; c) even countries and sectors that stand to benefit from climate change are poorly positioned to do so; and d) the next decade offers a window of opportunity for ECA countries to make their development more resilient to climate change while reaping numerous co-benefits.

【Objective】This study investigates the spatiotemporal dynamics of gross primary productivity (GPP) in the Henan Section of the Yellow River Basin, identify its extent and driving factors, and to provide a scientific basis for ecosystem conservation and management.【Method】We used Theil-Sen median trend analysis and the Mann-Kendall test to assess long-term GPP trends from 2001 to 2022. The GeoDetector model was used to evaluate the influence of climatic, topographic, and anthropogenic factors on spatial variation in GPP.【Result】From 2001 to 2022, the overall GPP in the region showed a fluctuating yet upward trend. Spatially, GPP distribution was highly heterogeneous, with clusters of high values primarily in the Southwest and lower values in central and Northern areas. Regions with increasing GPP accounted for 89.23% of the total area, concentrated in Sanmenxia, Luoyang, Jiyuan, and Xinxiang. Although the total area of cropland, grassland, and forestland declined during this period, their respective annual GPP levels increased. Slope aspect, elevation, and population size emerged as the primary factors influencing spatial variation in GPP. Interaction analysis indicated that the combined effects of slope gradient and elevation had the strongest influence on GPP. Furthermore, ecological factor analysis highlighted slope aspect, elevation, population density, and cropland area as significant contributors to GPP variation. Risk assessment revealed that areas with stable temperature, increased precipitation, and gentle terrain supported higher GPP growth.【Conclusion】The Henan Section of the Yellow River Basin has seen GPP improvement in the past two decades, despite reductions in vegetated land area. Topographic and climatic factors, especially elevation and slope-related variables, play the dominant role in shaping GPP patterns, while anthropogenic factors have a moderate influence. These findings underscore the need to consider terrain and climate stability in regional ecological management and suggest that targeted conservation in high-growth areas may further enhance ecosystem productivity.

Understanding the dynamic changes in the quality of the ecological environment and its potential driving forces is essential for protecting regional ecosystems and promoting sustainable development. In this study, we developed an improved remote sensing ecological index (IRSEI) by integrating the kernel normalized difference vegetation index (kNDVI) with an abundance index (AI) and conducted a comprehensive analysis of the spatiotemporal evolution of the quality of the ecological environment in the North China Plain (NCP) from 2000 to 2020. A multistep driving analysis framework was established to identify key climatic factors via the XGBoost algorithm and to quantify the effects of climate change and human activities through partial correlation analysis and a multiple regression residual model. The results indicate the following: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the ecological quality of the NCP significantly improved, with the average IRSEI increasing from 0.41 to 0.45. The proportion of areas with “good” or “excellent” ecological quality increased, revealing a south–north gradient, with higher values in the southern part and lower values in the northern part of the NCP. (2) Among the key climatic variables, surface temperature was significantly negatively correlated with the IRSEI, whereas atmospheric pressure and evapotranspiration were significantly positively correlated. (3) Approximately 51.97% of the ecological quality changes were jointly driven by climate change and human activities, with the contribution of human activities (28.80%) exceeding that of climate change (19.23%). These findings provide a scientific basis for understanding the driving mechanisms behind ecological environment changes and support ecological restoration and coordinated human–environment development in the context of climate change.

Climate change and human activities are affecting the ecological health of rivers and the economic value of its ecosystem services. Taking water quantity as the intermediate variable, we proposed a quantitative calculation method for the impact of climate change and human activities on the economic value produced by the ecosystem service functions of rivers. The framework mainly consists of three steps: firstly, we quantitatively determined the changes in the amount of water coming from rivers due to climate change and human activities; secondly, combining the theory of resource and environmental economics to calculate the economic value generated by ecological service functions of rivers; finally, we quantitatively identified and analyzed the impact of climate change and human activities on the economic value produced by the ecosystem service functions of rivers. Taking Baoji section of Weihe River (BSWR) as an example, we quantitatively analyzed and calculated the impact of climate change and human activities on the economic value produced by ecosystem service functions of rivers. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: in recent 52 years, the economic value produced by the ecosystem service functions of rivers decreased by 3.57 billion yuan due to the climate change and human activities; the total economic value has been reduced by an average of 68 million yuan per year. This useful work can not only reveal the impact of climate change and human activities on the economic value of ecosystem services of rivers but also can provide an important basis for the reasonable management model of water resource of ecosystem of rivers watershed.

The effect of climate change on tropical cyclone intensity has been an important scientific issue for a few decades. Although theory and modeling suggest the intensification of tropical cyclones in a warming climate, there are uncertainties in the assessed and projected responses of tropical cyclone intensity to climate change. While a few comprehensive reviews have already provided an assessment of the effect of climate change on tropical cyclone activity including tropical cyclone intensity, this review focuses mainly on the understanding of the effect of climate change on basin-wide tropical cyclone intensity, including indices for basin-wide tropical cyclone intensity, historical datasets used for intensity trend detection, environmental control of tropical cyclone intensity, detection and simulation of tropical cyclone intensity change, and some issues on the assessment of the effect of climate change on tropical cyclone intensity. In addition to the uncertainty in the historical datasets, intertwined natural variabilities, the considerable model bias in the projected large-scale environment, and poorly simulated inner-core structures of tropical cyclones, it is suggested that factors controlling the basin-wide intensity can be different from individual tropical cyclones since the assessment of the effect of climate change treats tropical cyclones in a basin as a whole.

As an endangered species, the habitat of Cycas balansae (C. balansae) is subject to a variety of impacts, including climate change and human activities, and exploring its adaptive distribution and conservation areas under such conditions is crucial to protecting the ecological security of endangered species. In this study, we used the MaxEnt model and Marxan v4.0.6 to systematically evaluate the adaptive distribution and priority protection areas of the endangered species C. balansae. The results showed that the endangered species C. balansae is concentrated in Xishuangbanna and its surrounding zones in the southern Yunnan Province. The main factors affecting the distribution of C. balansae were temperature seasonality, mean temperature of the coldest quarter, isothermality, and precipitation of the warmest quarter, among which temperature was the dominant factor. Under different climate scenarios in the future, the adaptive distribution area of C. balansae showed a slight decrease, and the adaptive distribution showed a northward migration trend. The future climate distribution pattern is closely related to temperature seasonality and the mean temperature of the coldest quarter. In addition, the influence of anthropogenic disturbances on the distribution of C. balansae cannot be ignored. Currently, there is a large range of conservation vacancies for C. balansae, and it is recommended that Simao City be used as a priority conservation area. This study provides new insights for determining the priority conservation areas and conservation strategies for the endangered species C. balansae.

Ice core provides a valuable vertical timeline of past climates and anthropogenic activities. Environmental proxies have been widely used in these studies, but there are few biological indicators available. To address this gap, we investigated the bacterial community from a 74 m ice core of Muztag ata glacier on the Tibetan Plateau to link biological indicators with past climate and anthropogenic activities. By analyzing the portion of the ice core with environmental proxies available (corresponding to 1907 to 1991), we observed an increase in bacterial richness throughout the ice core, which was associated with higher NH 4 + , an indicator of agricultural development. The bacterial community was jointly determined by human activity, natural input, and air temperature, with a strong human influence after the 1950s. Furthermore, the relative abundance of animal gut-associated bacteria, including Aerococcaceae , Nocardiaceae, Muribaculaceae , and Lachnospiraceae , was associated with livestock number changes in the Central Asian region. Together with other bacterial lineages, they jointly explained 59.8% of the livestock number changes. This study provides quantitative evidence of the associations between bacterial indicators and past climate and human activities, highlighting the potential of using bacterial proxies for ice core studies.

Future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) under the representative concentration pathway RCP4.5 are investigated based on a set of 21st century climate change simulations over East Asia with the regional climate model RegCM4 driven by five global models. The RegCM4 reproduces the major features of the observed TC activity over the region in the present-day period of 1986–2005, although with the underestimation of the number of TC genesis and intensity. A low number of TCs making landfall over China is also simulated. By the end of the 21st century (2079–98), the annual mean frequency of TC genesis and occurrence is projected to increase over the WNP by 16% and 10%, respectively. The increase in frequency of TC occurrence is in good agreement among the simulations, with the largest increase over the ocean surrounding Taiwan Island and to the south of Japan. The TCs tend to be stronger in the future compared to the present-day period of 1986–2005, with a large increase in the frequency of strong TCs. In addition, more TCs landings are projected over most of the China coast, with an increase of ∼18% over the whole Chinese territory.

Poleward atmospheric moisture transport （AMT） into the Arctic Ocean can change atmospheric moisture or water vaporcontent and cause cloud formation and redistribution, which may change downward longwave radiation and, in turn, surfaceenergy budgets, air temperatures, and sea-ice production and melt. In this study, we found a consistently enhanced polewardAMT across 60°N since 1959 based on the NCAR-NCEP reanalysis. Regional analysis demonstrates that the poleward AMTpredominantly occurs over the North Atlantic and North Pacific regions, contributing about 57% and 32%, respectively, to thetotal transport. To improve our understanding of the driving force for this enhanced poleward AMT, we explored the role thatextratropical cyclone activity may play. Climatologically, about 207 extratropical cyclones move across 60°N into the ArcticOcean each year, among which about 66 （32% of the total） and 47 （23%） originate from the North Atlantic and North PacificOcean, respectively. When analyzing the linear trends of the time series constructed by using a 20-year running window, wefound a positive correlation of 0.70 between poleward yearly AMT and the integrated cyclone activity index （measurementof cyclone intensity, number, and duration）. This shows the consistent multidecadal changes between these two parametersand may suggest cyclone activity plays a driving role in the enhanced poleward AMT. Furthermore, a composite analysisindicates that intensification and poleward extension of the Icelandic low and accompanying strengthened cyclone activityplay an important role in enhancing poleward AMT over the North Atlantic region.