Explore the vast range of titles available.

Abstract Glacierised river catchments are highly sensitive to climate change, while large populations may depend on their water resources. The irrigation agriculture and the communities along the Tarim River, NW China, strongly depend on the discharge from the glacierised catchments surrounding the Taklamakan Desert. While recent increasing discharge has been beneficial for the agricultural sector, future runoff under climate change is uncertain. We assess three climate change scenarios by forcing two glacio-hydrological models with output of eight general circulation models. The models have different glaciological modelling approaches but were both calibrated to discharge and glacier mass balance observations. Projected changes in climate, glacier cover and river discharge are examined over the twenty-first century and generally point to warmer and wetter conditions. The model ensemble projects median temperature and precipitation increases of + 1.9–5.3 °C and + 9–24%, respectively, until the end of the century compared to the 1971–2000 reference period. Glacier area is projected to shrink by 15–73% (model medians, range over scenarios), depending on the catchment. River discharge is projected to first increase by about 20% in the Aksu River catchments with subsequent decreases of up to 20%. In contrast, discharge in the drier Hotan and Yarkant catchments is projected to increase by 15–60% towards the end of the century. The large uncertainties mainly relate to the climate model ensemble and the limited observations to constrain the glacio-hydrological models. Sustainable water resource management will be key to avert the risks associated with the projected changes and their uncertainties.

In this case study, we examine a broad range of impacts on tourism and recreation based on projected changes to Indiana’s climate. The direct impacts of climate change on Indiana include increases in the number of hot and extremely hot days each summer, fewer mild days, more rain, and less snow. Each direct impact will affect tourism and recreation. Additionally, a range of indirect impacts are anticipated, including climate-related changes in health issues, new infrastructure needs, changes in forests and other recreational areas, and shifting consumer attitudes toward travel and recreation. Although direct impacts are predictable, indirect impacts on the complex tourism system are harder to anticipate, and the tourism and recreation industry must build resilience to respond to future change. The paper concludes with recommendations for future study.

Agricultural production is inextricably tied to climate, making agriculture one of the most climate-sensitive of all economic sectors. In countries such as Uzbekistan, the risks of climate change for the agricultural sector are a particularly immediate and important problem because the majority of the rural population depends either directly or indirectly on agriculture for their livelihoods. Recent trends in water availability and the presence of drought in Uzbekistan have underscored these risks, as has the presence of agricultural pests that may not have previously been found in Uzbekistan. The need to adapt to climate change in all sectors is on the agenda of national governments and development partners. The capacity to adapt to climatic changes, both in mitigating risks and in taking advantage of the opportunities that climate change can create, is in part dependent on financial resources. As a result, development partners will continue to have an important role in enhancing the adaptive capacity of the Uzbekistan agriculture sector. In response to these challenges, the World Bank and the government of Uzbekistan embarked on a joint study to identify and prioritize options for climate change adaptation of the agricultural sector. This report provides a menu of practical climate change adaptation options for the agriculture and water resources sectors, along with specific recommendations, which are tailored to three distinct agro-ecological zones (AEZs) within Uzbekistan, as well as over-arching actions at the national level. This report is organized as follows: chapter one gives current conditions for Uzbek agriculture and climate; chapter two presents design and methodology; chapter three deals with impacts of climate change on agriculture in Uzbekistan; chapter four presents identification of adaptation options for managing risk to Uzbekistan's agricultural systems; chapter five presents cost-benefit analysis; and chapter six gives options to improve climate resilience of Uzbekistan's agriculture sector.

Background: Wildfire simultaneity affects the availability and distribution of resources for fire management: multiple small fires require more resources to fight than one large fire does.Aims: The aim of this study was to project the effects of climate change on simultaneous large wildfires in the Western USA, regionalised by administrative divisions used for wildfire management.Methods: We modelled historical wildfire simultaneity as a function of selected fire indexes using generalised linear models trained on observed climate and fire data from 1984 to 2016. We then applied these models to regional climate model simulations of the 21st century from the NA-CORDEX data archive.Key results: The results project increases in the number of simultaneous 1000+ acre (4+ km2) fires in every part of the Western USA at multiple return periods. These increases are more pronounced at higher levels of simultaneity, especially in the Northern Rockies region, which shows dramatic increases in the recurrence of high return levels.Conclusions: In all regions, the models project a longer season of high simultaneity, with a slightly earlier start and notably later end. These changes would negatively impact the effectiveness of fire response.Implications: Because firefighting decisions about resource distribution, pre-positioning, and suppression strategies consider simultaneity as a factor, these results underscore the importance of potential changes in simultaneity for fire management decision-making.

This study focuses on quantifying the impacts of climate change on international tourism in Turkey through the estimation of the future number of international tourists for different tourism destinations. For this purpose, 30 tourism destinations were selected from different regions in Turkey offering different kinds of tourism attributes and climatic conditions. Future tourism demand was estimated based on comfort level change, a major determinant of tourist preference, and evaluated through the Tourism Climate Index. Changes in climate comfort levels between a base period (1963–2017), a projected medium term period representing the 2050s (2040–2069), and a projected long term period representing the 2080s (2070–2099) were correlated with the number of international tourists using a regression model developed by Hein et al. (Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability,1:170–178, 2009). The results of this study project extreme drops in demand, seasonal shifts, and the emergence of new alternative destinations. The study is significant as the first quantitative evaluation of climate change impacts on tourism demand in Turkey through a comparison of the spatial exposures of destinations. The results will help lead the way to a national tourism development roadmap in Turkey through the revelation of regional risks and opportunities and will serve as a benchmarking study for tourism destinations that have similar climate conditions and tourism patterns.

This paper investigates the impact of climate change on drought by addressing two questions: (1) How reliable is the assessment of climate change impact on drought based on state‐of‐the‐art climate change projections and downscaling techniques? and (2) Will the impact be at the same level from meteorological, agricultural, and hydrologic perspectives? Regional climate change projections based on dynamical downscaling through regional climate models (RCMs) are used to assess drought frequency, intensity, and duration, and the impact propagation from meteorological to agricultural to hydrological systems. The impact on a meteorological drought index (standardized precipitation index, SPI) is first assessed on the basis of daily climate inputs from RCMs driven by three general circulation models (GCMs). Two periods and two emission scenarios, i.e., 1991–2000 and 2091–2100 under B1 and A1Fi for Parallel Climate Model (PCM), 1990–1999 and 2090–2099 under A1B and A1Fi for Community Climate System Model, version 3.0 (CCSM3), 1980–1989 and 2090–2099 under B2 and A2 for Hadley Centre CGCM (HadCM3), are undertaken and dynamically downscaled through the RCMs. The climate projections are fed to a calibrated hydro‐agronomic model at the watershed scale in Central Illinois, and agricultural drought indexed by the standardized soil water index (SSWI) and hydrological drought by the standardized runoff index (SRI) and crop yield impacts are assessed. SSWI, in particular with extreme droughts, is more sensitive to climate change than either SPI or SRI. The climate change impact on drought in terms of intensity, frequency, and duration grows from meteorological to agricultural to hydrological drought, especially for CCSM3‐RCM. Significant changes of SSWI and SRI are found because of the temperature increase and precipitation decrease during the crop season, as well as the nonlinear hydrological response to precipitation and temperature change. Key Points Different GCM‐RCMs predict different changes of drought properties Climate sensitivity and emission scenarios complicates drought predictions Meteorological drought impacts are amplified in agricultural and hydrological impacts

Changes to water resources are critical to all sectors of the economy. Climate change will affect the timing and quantity of water available in the environment as well as have an adverse effect on the quality of that water. Floods, droughts, and changing patterns of water scarcity—when water is not available in sufficient enough quantities or of a suitable quality at the right time to fulfill demand—are all critical factors when considering how and where Indiana will be able to economically develop in the future. Management of water resources will become even more important as different sectors try to minimize the risk of water scarcity in the face of increasing climate variability. This paper focuses on observed changes to Indiana’s water resources and how the availability and quality of those resources are likely to change in the face of future climate. Generally, Indiana is becoming wetter but with the projected increase coming primarily in the winter and spring. Summer water use will increase the likelihood of water shortages and the need for improved water management. In particular, Indiana may benefit from investment in methods to increase short-term storage of water—retaining more of the overabundance from winter and spring to relieve summer shortages.

Food security is a crucial issue in the Sahel and could be endangered by climate change and demographic pressure during the 21st century. Higher temperatures and changes in rainfall induced by global warming are threatening rainfed agriculture in this region while the population is expected to increase approximately three-fold until 2050. Our study quantifies the impact of climate change on food security by combining climate modelling (16 models from CMIP5), crop yield (simulated by agronomic model, SARRA-O) and demographic evolution (provided by UN projection) under two future climatic scenarios. We simulate yield for the main crops in five countries in West Africa and estimate the population pressure on crop production to assess the number of available cereal production per capita. We found that, although uncertain, the African monsoon evolution leads to an increase of rainfall in Eastern Sahel and a decrease in Western Sahel under the RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenario from IPCC, leading to the higher temperature increase by the end of the 21st century. With regard to the abundance of food for the inhabitants, all the scenarios in each country show that in 2050, local agricultural production will be below 50 kg per capita. This situation can have impact on crop import and regional migration.

Climate change adversely affects food security all over the world, especially in developing countries where the increasing population is confronting food insecurity and malnutrition. Crop models can assist stakeholders for assessment of climate change in current and future agricultural production systems. The aim of this study was to use of system analysis approach through CSM-CERES-Millet model to quantify climate change and its impact on pearl millet under arid and semi-arid climatic conditions of Punjab, Pakistan. Calibration and evaluation of CERES-Millet were performed with the field observations for pearl millet hybrid 86M86. Mid-century (2040–2069) climate change scenarios for representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were generated based on an ensemble of selected five general circulation models (GCMs). The model was calibrated with optimum treatment (15-cm plant spacing and 200 kg N ha −1 ) using field observations on phenology, growth and grain yield. Thereafter, pearl millet cultivar was evaluated with remaining treatments of plant spacing and nitrogen during 2015 and 2016 in Faisalabad and Layyah. The CERES-Millet model was calibrated very well and predicted the grain yield with 1.14% error. Model valuation results showed that there was a close agreement between the observed and simulated values of grain yield with RMSE ranging from 172 to 193 kg ha −1 . The results of future climate scenarios revealed that there would be an increase in T min (2.8 °C and 2.9 °C, respectively, for the semi-arid and arid environment) and T max (2.5 °C and 2.7 °C, respectively, for the semi-arid and arid environment) under RCP4.5. For RCP8.5, there would be an increase of 4 °C in T min for the semi-arid and arid environment and an increase of 3.7 °C and 3.9 °C in T max , respectively, for the semi-arid and arid environment. The impacts of climate changes showed that pearl millet yield would be reduced by 7 to 10% under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 in Faisalabad and 10 to 13% in Layyah under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 for mid-century. So, CSM-CERES-Millet is a useful tool in assessing the climate change impacts.

The climate is changing, and the Eastern Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region is vulnerable to the consequences. Many of the region's countries are facing warmer temperatures, a changing hydrology, and more extremes, droughts, floods, heat waves, windstorms, and forest fires. This book presents an overview of what adaptation to climate change might mean for Eastern Europe and Central Asia. It starts with a discussion of emerging best-practice adaptation planning around the world and a review of the latest climate projections. It then discusses possible actions to improve resilience organized around impacts on health, natural resources (water, biodiversity, and the coastal environment), the 'unbuilt' environment (agriculture and forestry), and the built environment (infrastructure and housing). The last chapter concludes with a discussion of two areas in great need of strengthening given the changing climate: disaster preparedness and hydro-meteorological services. This book has four key messages: a) contrary to popular perception, Eastern Europe and Central Asia face significant threats from climate change, with a number of the most serious risks already in evidence; b) vulnerability over the next 10 to 20 years is likely to be dominated by socioeconomic factors and legacy issues; c) even countries and sectors that stand to benefit from climate change are poorly positioned to do so; and d) the next decade offers a window of opportunity for ECA countries to make their development more resilient to climate change while reaping numerous co-benefits.