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Among mammals, the order Primates is exceptional in having a high taxonomic richness in which the taxa are arboreal, semiterrestrial, or terrestrial. Although habitual terrestriality is pervasive among the apes and African and Asian monkeys (catarrhines), it is largely absent among monkeys of the Americas (platyrrhines), as well as galagos, lemurs, and lorises (strepsirrhines), which are mostly arboreal. Numerous ecological drivers and species-specific factors are suggested to set the conditions for an evolutionary shift from arboreality to terrestriality, and current environmental conditions may provide analogous scenarios to those transitional periods. Therefore, we investigated predominantly arboreal, diurnal primate genera from the Americas and Madagascar that lack fully terrestrial taxa, to determine whether ecological drivers (habitat canopy cover, predation risk, maximum temperature, precipitation, primate species richness, human population density, and distance to roads) or species-specific traits (bodymass, group size, and degree of frugivory) associate with increased terrestriality. We collated 150,961 observation hours across 2,227 months from 47 species at 20 sites in Madagascar and 48 sites in the Americas. Multiple factors were associated with ground use in these otherwise arboreal species, including increased temperature, a decrease in canopy cover, a dietary shift away from frugivory, and larger group size. These factors mostly explain intraspecific differences in terrestriality. As humanity modifies habitats and causes climate change, our results suggest that species already inhabiting hot, sparsely canopied sites, and exhibiting more generalized diets, are more likely to shift toward greater ground use.

Wetlands provide multiple ecosystem services of local and global importance, but currently there exists no comprehensive, high‐quality wetland map for the Arctic region. Improved information about Arctic wetland extents and their vulnerability to climate change is essential for adaptation and mitigation efforts, including for indigenous people dependent on the ecosystem services that wetlands provide, as inadequate planning could result in dire consequences for societies and ecosystems alike. Synthesizing high‐resolution wetland databases and datasets on soil wetness and soil types from multiple sources, we created the first high‐resolution map with full coverage of Arctic wetlands. We assess the vulnerability of Arctic wetlands for the years 2050, 2075, and 2100, using datasets on permafrost extent, soil types, and projected mean annual air temperature from the HadGEM2‐ES climate model for three change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). Our mapping shows that wetlands cover approximately 3.5 million km2 or roughly 25% of Arctic landmass and 99% of these wetlands are in permafrost areas, indicating considerable vulnerability to future climate change. Unless global warming is limited to scenario RCP2.6, robust results show that large areas of Arctic wetlands are vulnerable to ecosystem regime shifts. If scenario RCP8.5 becomes a reality, at least 50% of the Arctic wetland area would be highly vulnerable to regime shifts with considerable adverse impacts on human health, infrastructure, economics, ecosystems, and biodiversity. The developed wetland and vulnerability maps can aid planning and prioritization of the most vulnerable areas for protection and mitigation of change. Plain Language Summary Wetlands play an important role in the Arctic; they cool the global climate, hold freshwater for animals and plants, regulate water, carbon, and nutrient cycling, and are biologically diverse and of great importance for indigenous human activities. Large areas lie on frozen ground (permafrost), but this could thaw out under expected future global and regional warming. Permafrost thaw can lead to wetland change leading to ecosystem as well as societal problems since the permafrost also acts as the foundation for roads and buildings in the Arctic. Through combined multi‐variable mapping, we estimate that wetlands cover 25% of land in the Arctic region, almost entirely on permafrost areas. Air temperatures above −2 degrees Celsius may lead to permafrost thaw and associated wetlands drainage, and this is enhanced by higher temperatures and longer durations of temperature elevation. If global temperatures increase by more than 2 degrees Celsius from preindustrial levels to year 2100, 30%–50% of Arctic wetlands are vulnerable to change. Limiting global warming is critical for preserving Arctic wetlands and reducing societal and ecosystem impacts of their changes. Key Points Multi‐data synthesis shows that wetlands cover 25% of the Arctic landmass Around 50% of Arctic wetlands are vulnerable to permafrost thaw by the year 2100 in climate scenario RCP8.5 Much of the permafrost underlying Arctic wetland areas can remain stable up until the year 2100 under climate scenario RCP2.6

Agroforestry (AF)-based adaptation to global climate change can consist of (1) reversal of negative trends in diverse tree cover as generic portfolio risk management strategy; (2) targeted, strategic, shift in resource capture (e.g. light, water) to adjust to changing conditions (e.g. lower or more variable rainfall, higher temperatures); (3) vegetation-based influences on rainfall patterns; or (4) adaptive, tactical, management of tree-crop interactions based on weather forecasts for the (next) growing season. Forty years ago, a tree physiological research tradition in aboveground and belowground resource capture was established with questions and methods on climate-tree-soil-crop interactions in space and time that are still relevant for today’s challenges. After summarising early research contributions, we review recent literature to assess current levels of uncertainty in climate adaptation assessments in and through AF. Quantification of microclimate within and around tree canopies showed a gap between standard climate station data (designed to avoid tree influences) and the actual climate in which crop and tree meristems or livestock operates in real-world AF. Where global scenario modelling of ‘macroclimate’ change in mean annual rainfall and temperature extrapolates from climate station conditions in past decades, it ignores microclimate effects of trees. There still is a shortage of long-term phenology records to analyse tree biological responses across a wide range of species to climate variability, especially where flowering and pollination matter. Physiological understanding can complement farmer knowledge and help guide policy decisions that allow AF solutions to emerge and tree germplasm to be adjusted for the growing conditions expected over the lifetime of a tree.

This paper investigates the Atlantic Ocean influence on equatorial Pacific decadal variability. Using an ensemble of simulations, where the ICTPAGCM (“SPEEDY”) is coupled to the NEMO/OPA ocean model in the Indo-Pacific region and forced by observed sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic region, it is shown that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) has had a substantial influence on the equatorial Pacific decadal variability. According to AMO phases we have identified three periods with strong Atlantic forcing of equatorial Pacific changes, namely (1) 1931–1950 minus 1910–1929, (2) 1970–1989 minus 1931–1950 and (3) 1994–2013 minus 1970–1989. Both observations and the model show easterly surface wind anomalies in the central Pacific, cooling in the central-eastern Pacific and warming in the western Pacific/Indian Ocean region in events (1) and (3) and the opposite signals in event (2). The physical mechanism for these responses is related to a modification of the Walker circulation because a positive (negative) AMO leads to an overall warmer (cooler) tropical Atlantic. The warmer (cooler) tropical Atlantic modifies the Walker circulation, leading to rising (sinking) and upper-level divergence (convergence) motion in the Atlantic region and sinking (rising) motion and upper-level convergence (divergence) in the central Pacific region.

Characterized by scarce water resources and fragile ecosystems, Northwest China (NWC) has experienced a climate shift from warm-dry to warm-wet conditions since the 1980s that has garnered extensive concern in recent years. In this study, the variability in extreme precipitation (EP) during 1961–2016 in different climate zones of NWC and the possible mechanisms for this variation are investigated. The results show that the EP trends significantly increased in most of the westerly zone (WZ) and plateau zone (PZ), while the EP trends did not significantly decrease in the monsoon zone (MZ). The start dates of extreme precipitation (SDEP) and end dates of extreme precipitation (EDEP) advanced and were postponed, respectively, in the WZ and PZ, while the opposite occurred in the MZ. Summer atmospheric circulation, water vapor transport, and atmospheric instability over NWC varied greatly with the interdecadal shift in EP before and after 1986. During 1986–2016, upper-level divergence and lower-level convergence occurred in the MZ and PZ, which strengthened ascending flow. In addition, the summer water vapor and atmospheric instability increased in the WZ and PZ. These characteristics created favorable conditions for increased occurrences of EP in the WZ and PZ in summer. Conversely, the upper-level convergence and lower-level divergence in the MZ strengthened descending flow. Decreases in summer water vapor and atmospheric instability occurred in the MZ after 1986. Hence, the environmental conditions in the MZ may have prevented the occurrence and development of EP in summer during 1986–2016.

The climate regime in the eastern Bering Sea has recently been dominated by a pattern of multi-year stanzas, in which several successive years of minimal sea-ice formation and warm summer temperatures (e.g., 2002–2005, 2014–2017) alternate with several years of relatively extensive sea-ice formation and cold summer temperatures (e.g., 2006–2013). This emerging climate pattern may be forcing long-term changes in the spatial distributions of the Bering Sea’s marine fauna. The National Marine Fisheries Service’s Alaska Fisheries Science Center recently conducted two bottom trawl surveys covering the entire Bering Sea shelf from the Alaska Peninsula to the Bering Strait. The first, in the summer of 2010, was conducted during a cold year when the majority of the continental shelf was covered by a pool of cold (< 2 °C) water. The second, in the summer of 2017, was during a warmer year with water temperatures above the long-term survey mean. These two surveys recorded significantly different spatial distributions for populations of several commercially important fish species, including walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus), Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus), and several flatfish species, as well as jellyfishes. Population shifts included latitudinal displacement as well as variable recruitment success. The large-scale distributional shifts reported here for high-biomass species raise questions about long-term ecosystem impacts, and highlight the need for continued monitoring. They also raise questions about our management strategies for these and other species in Alaska’s large marine ecosystems.

Impermanence is an ecological principle1 but there are times when changes occur nonlinearly as abrupt community shifts (ACSs) that transform the ecosystem state and the goods and services it provides2. Here, we present a model based on niche theory3 to explain and predict ACSs at the global scale. We test our model using 14 multi-decadal time series of marine metazoans from zooplankton to fish, spanning all latitudes and the shelf to the open ocean. Predicted and observed fluctuations correspond, with both identifying ACSs at the end of the 1980s4–7 and 1990s5,8. We show that these ACSs coincide with changes in climate that alter local thermal regimes, which in turn interact with the thermal niche of species to trigger long-term and sometimes abrupt shifts at the community level. A large-scale ACS is predicted after 2014—unprecedented in magnitude and extent—coinciding with a strong El Niño event and major shifts in Northern Hemisphere climate. Our results underline the sensitivity of the Arctic Ocean, where unprecedented melting may reorganize biological communities5,9, and suggest an increase in the size and consequences of ACS events in a warming world.Abrupt community shifts, for marine species from zooplankton to fish, are shown to occur with local climate changes in which warming pushes species beyond their thermal niche. This modelling approach suggests future events will be larger and have more broad-reaching impacts.

Warming-related growth decrease on southern Fagus sylvatica forests has been observed in different regions; however, whether it is a generalized fact or not remains unclear. Here we investigate the geographical pattern on growth response of the southwestern European beech forests to the warming climate shift which started in the 1980s. We sampled 15 beech forests (215 trees) across four climatically contrasting regions (Mediterranean, Pyrenean, low- and high-elevation Atlantic areas) near the southern distribution limit of the species in the Iberian Peninsula. Dendrochronological analyses were carried out to evaluate the growth of European beech since the 1950s. Growth responses quantified as pointer years, abrupt growth changes and long-term growth trends were compared between periods (before and after the 1980s climate shift), geographical regions and tree sizes. Analyses of the studied variables indicated a growth decrease in basal area increment after the climate shift in three of the four studied regions. Pyrenean stands were not negatively influenced by the climate shift, although an increase in the frequency of negative abrupt growth changes was also found there. Growth after the climate shift presented divergent patterns depending on the geographical region. Although Mediterranean and Atlantic stands presented different indicators of constrained growth, Pyrenean stands showed rising long-term growth trends. Such results suggest that regional characteristics differentially determine the growth response of the southern European beech forests to recent warming periods. Iberian beech forests located at the Pyrenees would benefit from forecasted warming conditions, whereas Atlantic and Mediterranean forests would be more prone to suffer warming-related growth decline.

In this study, we investigated the possible relation between the Indian summer monsoon and the combination of the different phases of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) before and after the climate shift in 1976. This study is carried out using IMD’s rainfall dataset, HadISST v1.1 dataset and twentieth century reanalysis dataset by comparing anomalies of the respective parameters from 1901 to 2020. It is found that when positive (negative) phases of PDO and El Niño (La Niña) co-occur, deficit (surplus) rainfall are likely to occur over entire India. The SST signatures of both the PDO and ENSO are showing their respective spatial structures. However, when negative (positive) PDO and El Niño (La Niña) co-occur, the signal is mixed and it is unlikely that either surplus or deficit rainfall conditions will occur over entire India, and the SST signatures are not capturing their proper spatial pattern. In other words, when ENSO and PDO are in (out of) phase they enhance (counteract) the conventional monsoon-ENSO relationship. After confirming the climate shift in 1976, study periods were further divided into pre and post climate shift periods based on Niño 3.4 index and PDO index and analysed their impact on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. In the pre-shift example, in-phase conditions exhibit similar qualities to those described above. Rainfall patterns are more indicative of ENSO than PDO. In the post-shift situation, the positive anomaly of SST in the PDO and Niño region is significantly stronger than in the pre-shift phase. When compared to the pre-shift example, positive rainfall anomalies are amplified during positive PDO and El Niño, while negative PDO and La Niña show a weakening of positive rainfall anomalies. The out-of-phase condition has a balancing effect due to the counteracting impact, but with an increased positive anomaly of SST. In that combination, rainfall patterns with PDO characteristics rather than ENSO characteristics emerge. Circulation features at 850 hPa during the pre-shift and post shift periods show considerable changes as an indication of the climate shift. During the pre-shift of positive PDO and La Niña, convergence at low level enhances over Indian subcontinent and resulting enhanced rainfall; however, in the post shift period the strength of convergence reduces, and it leads to reduced rainfall. The patterns of stream function and velocity potential are also consistent with rainfall during the pre and post shift periods.

The associated uncertainties of future climate projections are one of the biggest obstacles to overcome in studies exploring the potential regional impacts of future climate shifts. In remote and climatically complex regions, the limited number of available downscaled projections may not provide an accurate representation of the underlying uncertainty in future climate or the possible range of potential scenarios. Consequently, global downscaled projections are now some of the most widely used climate datasets in the world. However, they are rarely examined for representativeness of local climate or the plausibility of their projected changes. Here we explore the utility of two such global datasets (CHELSA and WorldClim2) in providing plausible future climate scenarios for regional climate change impact studies. Our analysis was based on three steps: (1) standardizing a baseline period to compare available global downscaled projections with regional observation-based datasets and regional downscaled datasets; (2) bias correcting projections using a single observation-based baseline; and (3) having controlled differences in baselines between datasets, exploring the patterns and magnitude of projected climate shifts from these datasets to determine their plausibility as future climate scenarios, using Hawaiʻi as an example region. Focusing on mean annual temperature and precipitation, we show projected climate shifts from these commonly used global datasets not only may vary significantly from one another but may also fall well outside the range of future scenarios derived from regional downscaling efforts. As species distribution models are commonly created from these datasets, we further illustrate how a substantial portion of variability in future species distribution shifts can arise from the choice of global dataset used. Hence, projected shifts between baseline and future scenarios from these global downscaled projections warrant careful evaluation before use in climate impact studies, something rarely done in the existing literature.