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43,534 result(s) for "CLIMATE VARIATION"
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Climate variations, culture and economic behaviour of Chinese households
Societies adapt to climate variations and develop unique cultures that lead to distinctive economic behaviour across different regions. To estimate the climate-economic link and test the hypothetical role of culture, this paper uses a nationwide survey at the household level in China, together with historical temperature data at the prefectural city level for empirical analysis. The results show the significant role of local climate variations on consumption, savings and investment decisions by households. Harsh weather conditions are associated with lower consumption, lower income and higher savings. Such climate characteristics are also associated with a lower probability of purchasing risky financial assets. Using a sample of migrating families, we find strong evidence that culture is an important channel in the climate-economic relationship. Additional support for this view is found through the “catching up with the Joneses” effect documented in the economics literature. Overall, this research provides an alternative perspective for understanding the long-term behavioural impact of climate change.
Effects of Short‐Term Climate Variations on Young Water Fraction in a Small Pre‐Alpine Catchment
Continuous and extended observations of hydrometeorological parameters, alongside the analysis of the isotopic composition across diverse waters within catchments, can significantly enhance our understanding of the potential ramifications of climate change on the hydrological response. In this study, a comprehensive analysis of hydrometeorological and isotopic data was conducted over 10 hydrological years (October 2012–September 2022) within a small, forested catchment in the Italian pre‐Alps, aiming to investigate the impacts of short‐term climatic changes on the isotopic composition of waters and the young water fraction (Fyw). The results showed that the catchment experienced climate conditions with rapid warming and drying trends. Significant isotopic enrichments were observed in all sampled water sources, driven primarily by air temperature. Fyw was estimated to be 0.64 ± 0.06, 0.45 ± 0.07, and 0.16 ± 0.03 for stream water, soil water, and shallow groundwater based on the whole‐period sinusoidal fittings, respectively. Comparative analyses comprising different approaches for the estimation of Fyw showed that time‐windows scenarios and detrending corrections yielded smaller Fyw than approaches based on the whole‐period fitting and discharge‐sensitivity modeling. Such differences can be attributed to an uneven temporal distribution of stream water isotopic data, the difficulties in capturing high flows in a humid catchment characterized by a fast runoff response during rainfall‐runoff events, and the presence of isotopic trends. Our findings underscore the imperative of integrating interannual isotopic trends and adopting appropriate sampling strategy and methodological approaches to ensure a robust Fyw estimation. Key Points The isotopic composition of water sources underwent a significant enrichment, likely due to the increasing air temperature Young water fractions (Fyw) varied between 0.16 and 0.64, and the estimates were sensitive to the sampling period and the fitting method Impacts of isotopic trends and sampling strategies should be considered in the selection and development of Fyw estimation methods
Fine-scale spatial climate variation and drought mediate the likelihood of reburning
In many forested ecosystems, it is increasingly recognized that the probability of burning is substantially reduced within the footprint of previously burned areas. This self-limiting effect of wildland fire is considered a fundamental emergent property of ecosystems and is partly responsible for structuring landscape heterogeneity (i.e., mosaics o f different age classes), thereby reducing the likelihood of uncharacteristically large fires in regions with active fire regimes. However, the strength and longevity of this self-limiting phenomenon is not well understood in most fire-prone ecosystems. In this study, we quantify the self-limiting effect in terms of its strength and longevity for five fire-prone study areas in western North America and investigate how each measure varies along a spatial climatic gradient and according to temporal (i.e., annual) climatic variation. Results indicate that the longevity (i.e., number of years) of the self-limiting effect ranges between 15 yr in the warm and dry study area in the southwestern United States to 33 yr in the cold, northern study areas in located in northwestern Montana and the boreal forest of Canada. We also found that spatial climatic variation has a strong influence on wildland fire’s self-limiting capacity. Specifically, the self-limiting effect within each study area was stronger and lasted longer in areas with low mean moisture deficit (i.e., wetter and cooler settings) compared to areas with high mean moisture deficit (warmer and drier settings). Last, our findings show that annual climatic variation influences wildland fire’s self-limiting effect: drought conditions weakened the strength and longevity of the self-limiting effect in all study areas, albeit at varying magnitudes. Overall, our study provides support for the idea that wildland fire contributes to spatial heterogeneity in fuel ages that subsequently mediate future fire sizes and effects. However, our findings show that the strength and longevity of the self-limiting effect varies considerably according to spatial and temporal climatic variation, providing land and fire managers relevant information for effective planning and management of fire and highlighting that fire itself is an important factor contributing to fire-free intervals.
Potential vulnerability of Moroccan apple orchard to climate change–induced phenological perturbations: effects on yields and fruit quality
Climatic factors are of a big importance for the determination of phenological stages of several fruit tree species, including apple, during the pre- and post-blooming periods causing their modifications and consequently affecting the fruit quality and productivity. This study aimed to identify the important dormancy phases (chilling and forcing periods) involved in determination of the flowering time in Gala apple trees in order to estimate temperature and chill/heat requirements, useful to assess the effect of climatic factors and phenological modifications on apple productivity and quality. Phenological and climatic data (temperatures, rainfall, irrigation, chilling and heat requirements) were collected, calculated, and measured from orchard in Imouzzer-Kandar, Morocco. Fruit productivity and quality parameters (total yield, fruit weight, size, firmness, and sweetness) were measured. Results showed a prolonged chilling period basing on the pre-blooming phases identified using partial least squares regression. Inadequate chill during warm seasons (insufficient chilling requirements) induces some phenological perturbations: late flowering, extended flowering duration, and period from flowering to harvesting. These phenological anomalies affect negatively the fruit quality of apple as a cause of inadequate climatic factors, mainly temperature and chilling requirements during the chilling period. Our findings demonstrated that sufficient chilling and heat requirements correlate positively with fruit weight, size, and firmness, although the low irrigation applied during the period from flowering to the harvesting times. In unfavorable conditions, total yield and fruit sweetness could be improved by supplementary irrigation during the same period. Practically, chilling requirements of 645–677 chill hours, 709–1157 chill units, and 43.4–55.2 chill portions according to 0–7 °C, Utah model, and Dynamic model respectively and heat requirements of 26,290–27,057 growing degree hours are sufficient for good fruit quality. These are equivalent to temperature of 9.3–9.9 °C during the chilling period and 11.1–12.5 °C during the forcing period. These findings are useful for eventual management measures in order to improve apple production in their cropping area. At long terms, we propose necessity of rearrangement of high-chill apple varieties by low-chill cultivars as a way of apple crop adaptation to climate variations.
Sensitivity of Global Pasturelands to Climate Variation
Pasturelands are globally extensive, sensitive to climate, and support livestock production systems that provide an essential source of food in many parts of the world. In this paper, we integrate information from remote sensing, global climate, and land use databases to improve understanding of the resilience and resistance of this ecologically vulnerable and societally critical land use. To characterize the effect of climate on pastureland productivity at global scale, we analyze the relationship between satellite‐derived enhanced vegetation index data from MODIS and gridded precipitation data from CHIRPS at 3‐ and 6‐month time lags. To account for the effects of different production systems, we stratify our analysis by agroecological zones and by rangeland versus mixed crop‐livestock systems. Results show that 14.5% of global pasturelands experienced statistically significant greening or browning trends over the 15‐year study period, with the majority of these locations showing greening. In arid ecosystems, precipitation and lagged vegetation index anomalies explain up to 69% of variation in vegetation productivity in both crop‐livestock and rangeland‐based production systems. Livestock production systems in Australia are least resistant to contemporaneous and short‐term precipitation anomalies, while arid livestock production systems in Latin America are least resilient to short‐term vegetation greenness anomalies. Because many arid regions of the world are projected to experience decreased total precipitation and increased precipitation variability in the coming decades, improved understanding regarding the sensitivity of pasturelands to the joint effects of climate change and livestock production systems is required to support sustainable land management in global pasturelands. Plain Language Summary Pastures, which provide food for livestock, are the most extensive land use on the planet, and their productivity depends on the timing and amount of rainfall they receive. In this paper, we use data on vegetation productivity, rainfall, and land use in order to determine the ability of pastures to remain unaffected by a disturbance and the time required for pastures to recover following a disturbance. To determine the effects of rainfall on pastures, we analyze the relationship between productivity and rainfall at 3‐ and 6‐month time intervals. We also take into account pasture management and whether pastures are located in dry or humid areas of the world. In dry regions, rain from the current season, rain from the last two seasons, and vegetation productivity from the previous growing season explain nearly 70% of current season vegetation productivity. Pastures in Australia are least capable of withstanding rainfall deficits, while pastures in Latin America recover more slowly after drought compared to other regions. Dry regions of the world are predicted to receive less rain less regularly in the coming decades, so improved understanding of the sensitivity of pastures to expected changes in rainfall will help support sustainable management of global pastures. Key Points In Australia, pasturelands have both low resistance and low resilience relative to other regions across the world Southern South America has the lowest resilience globally, which is indicative of slow vegetation recovery after a disturbance A total of 14.5% of global pasturelands experienced greening or browning trends, with the majority of these locations showing greening
ANALYSIS OF AGRICULTURAL PRACTICES USED BY CEREAL FARMERS TO ADOPT TO PHENOMENON OF CLIMATR VARIATION IN THE GOVERNORATES OF THE CENTRAL REGION OF IRAQ
This study was aimed to identify the obstacles that facing cereal farmers that applying the agricultural practices to decrease the effects of climate variation phenomenon in the central region of Iraq. This research was conducted on cereal farmers at Baghdad, Najaf, Babil, and Wasit which were the most cultivated governorates of cereal crops (wheat, rice, and yellow corn). A randomized sample of (227) farmers was taken, that represents 0.25% of the total cereal farmers in the four governorates (90,584 farmers). In order to achieve the research goal, a questionnaire was prepared to collect data related to the research topic, for which a four-way scale was designed (33) paragraphs, and this field included three axes (1. Obstacles related to the farmers), (2. Obstacles related to the extension aspect), (3. Obstacles related to government institutions). The research concluded that the cereal farmers had a lack of knowledge about the effects of the climate variations phenomenon on their crops in the central region of Iraq, they also facing many obstacles that need to be solved, which led to their failure to use the correct agricultural practices.The research recommends the necessity of training farmers about scientific practices, research also recommends the necessity of holding training courses by the Agricultural Extension Organization for cereal farmers in order to increase their knowledge and develop their expertise in dealing with the climate variation phenomenon to advance the agricultural reality.
Haihe River discharge to Bohai Bay, North China: trends, climate, and human activities
Trends in annual precipitation and river discharge (1956–2012) were analyzed using the Mann–Kendall test and Sen's method to evaluate the impact of climate variation and human activities on the Haihe River discharge to Bohai Bay. Compared to observations before 1965, two obvious decreases in annual river discharge occurred after 1965 and after 1980. Considering 1956–1965 as the baseline period, it was established that the reduction in Haihe River discharge to the Bohai Sea was 52.9% and 81.9% during 1966–1980 and 1981–2012, respectively. Compared to the baseline period, the reductions in annual precipitation in 1966–1980 and 1981–2012 were 7.1% and 14.2%, respectively. Following the increase in population, industrial activity, and irrigated areas, water consumption has increased rapidly, from 51.9 mm in 1965 to 124.8 mm in 1980 and 126.4 mm in 2000. These results indicate that the reduction in discharge in the Haihe River basin during 1966–1980 and 1981–2000 could be attributed to climatic variations (33.2% and 41.4%, respectively) and human activities (66.8% and 58.6%, respectively). The results also indicate that salinity in Bohai Bay increased following the decrease in discharge from the Haihe River.
The Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC-CSM): the main progress from CMIP5 to CMIP6
The main advancements of the Beijing Climate Center (BCC) climate system model from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to phase 6 (CMIP6) are presented, in terms of physical parameterizations and model performance. BCC-CSM1.1 and BCC-CSM1.1m are the two models involved in CMIP5, whereas BCC-CSM2-MR, BCC-CSM2-HR, and BCC-ESM1.0 are the three models configured for CMIP6. Historical simulations from 1851 to 2014 from BCC-CSM2-MR (CMIP6) and from 1851 to 2005 from BCC-CSM1.1m (CMIP5) are used for models assessment. The evaluation matrices include the following: (a) the energy budget at top-of-atmosphere; (b) surface air temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric circulation for the global and East Asia regions; (c) the sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific; (d) sea-ice extent and thickness and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC); and (e) climate variations at different timescales, such as the global warming trend in the 20th century, the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), and the diurnal cycle of precipitation. Compared with BCC-CSM1.1m, BCC-CSM2-MR shows significant improvements in many aspects including the tropospheric air temperature and circulation at global and regional scales in East Asia and climate variability at different timescales, such as the QBO, the MJO, the diurnal cycle of precipitation, interannual variations of SST in the equatorial Pacific, and the long-term trend of surface air temperature.
The responses of precipitation and streamflow to recent climate variations in the frigid and subtropical zones
Extreme hydrological events have occurred in many climate zones in recent decades. Most importantly, the water distribution in hydrological components has changed with apparent variations in climate. The associated impact on water resources is of concern because an understanding of the hydrological response mechanism is necessary for human survival. In this study, we compare precipitation and streamflow responses to climate variations in two different climate zones. Continental-scale frigid zone (CSFZ) data were collected from Russia, while island-scale subtropical zone (ISSZ) data were collected from Taiwan. The results show that the teleconnection of the precipitation between the ISSZ and CSFZ is subtle and is linked to global atmospheric conditions. The daily maximum precipitation and the duration without precipitation increased in both the CSFZ and the ISSZ. The streamflow response became more extreme in the ISSZ and was associated with pronounced dry and wet seasons. In contrast, a rise in winter temperatures has led to more uniform streamflow and extreme hydrological situations have become less frequent. The responses of streamflow to recent climate variations in the CSFZ and ISSZ are different. Precipitation and temperature are driving forces for the change in streamflow in the CSFZ while precipitation is for the ISSZ.
Adapting to climate change in Eastern Europe and Central Asia
The climate is changing, and the Eastern Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region is vulnerable to the consequences. Many of the region's countries are facing warmer temperatures, a changing hydrology, and more extremes, droughts, floods, heat waves, windstorms, and forest fires. This book presents an overview of what adaptation to climate change might mean for Eastern Europe and Central Asia. It starts with a discussion of emerging best-practice adaptation planning around the world and a review of the latest climate projections. It then discusses possible actions to improve resilience organized around impacts on health, natural resources (water, biodiversity, and the coastal environment), the 'unbuilt' environment (agriculture and forestry), and the built environment (infrastructure and housing). The last chapter concludes with a discussion of two areas in great need of strengthening given the changing climate: disaster preparedness and hydro-meteorological services. This book has four key messages: a) contrary to popular perception, Eastern Europe and Central Asia face significant threats from climate change, with a number of the most serious risks already in evidence; b) vulnerability over the next 10 to 20 years is likely to be dominated by socioeconomic factors and legacy issues; c) even countries and sectors that stand to benefit from climate change are poorly positioned to do so; and d) the next decade offers a window of opportunity for ECA countries to make their development more resilient to climate change while reaping numerous co-benefits.