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Adapting to climate change in Eastern Europe and Central Asia
The climate is changing, and the Eastern Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region is vulnerable to the consequences. Many of the region's countries are facing warmer temperatures, a changing hydrology, and more extremes, droughts, floods, heat waves, windstorms, and forest fires. This book presents an overview of what adaptation to climate change might mean for Eastern Europe and Central Asia. It starts with a discussion of emerging best-practice adaptation planning around the world and a review of the latest climate projections. It then discusses possible actions to improve resilience organized around impacts on health, natural resources (water, biodiversity, and the coastal environment), the 'unbuilt' environment (agriculture and forestry), and the built environment (infrastructure and housing). The last chapter concludes with a discussion of two areas in great need of strengthening given the changing climate: disaster preparedness and hydro-meteorological services. This book has four key messages: a) contrary to popular perception, Eastern Europe and Central Asia face significant threats from climate change, with a number of the most serious risks already in evidence; b) vulnerability over the next 10 to 20 years is likely to be dominated by socioeconomic factors and legacy issues; c) even countries and sectors that stand to benefit from climate change are poorly positioned to do so; and d) the next decade offers a window of opportunity for ECA countries to make their development more resilient to climate change while reaping numerous co-benefits.
eBook
Nature's mutiny : how the little Ice Age of the long seventeenth century transformed the West and shaped the present
\"An illuminating work of environmental history that chronicles the great climate crisis of the 1600s, which transformed the social and political fabric of Europe. Although hints of a crisis appeared as early as the 1570s, the temperature by the end of the sixteenth century plummeted so drastically that Mediterranean harbors were covered with ice, birds literally dropped out of the sky, and \"frost fairs\" were erected on a frozen Thames--with kiosks, taverns, and even brothels that become a semi-permanent part of the city. Recounting the deep legacy and far-ranging consequences of this \"Little Ice Age,\" acclaimed historian Philipp Blom reveals how the European landscape had suddenly, but ineradicably, changed by the mid-seventeenth century. While apocalyptic weather patterns destroyed entire harvests and incited mass migrations, they gave rise to the growth of European cities, the emergence of early capitalism, and the vigorous stirrings of the Enlightenment. A timely examination of how a society responds to profound and unexpected change, Nature's Mutiny will transform the way we think about climate change in the twenty-first century and beyond\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
Assessment of the impacts of climate change on mountain hydrology : development of a methodology through a case study in the Andes of Peru
The objective of study of the impacts of climate change on mountain hydrology is to develop a methodology to assess the net impacts of climate change on the hydrological response in mountainous regions. This is done through a case study in the Peruvian Andes. There are few examples of predictions of the impact of climate change on resource availability and even fewer examples of the applications of such predictions to planning for sustainable economic development. This report presents a summary of the efforts of a Bank energy and climate change team to develop methodological tools for the assessment of climate impacts on surface hydrology in the Peruvian Andes. The importance of analyzing the potential climate impacts on hydrology in Peru arises in part from concerns about the retreat of tropical glaciers, the drying of unique Andean wetland ecosystems, as well as increased weather variability and weather extremes, all of which will affect water regulation. The study, together with a recently published report by the World Bank, Peru Overcoming the Barriers to Hydropower, is intended to inform plans for energy development in Peru and enable provides some insights into how hydrology may behave under future climate scenarios in Peru, the main purpose is to contribute to the methodological approaches to anticipate impacts from climate change in the Andes Region and other mountain ranges
eBook
Climate impacts on energy systems : key issues for energy sector adaptation
While the energy sector is a primary target of efforts to arrest and reverse the growth of greenhouse gas emissions and lower the carbon footprint of development, it is also expected to be increasingly affected by unavoidable climate consequences from the damage already induced in the biosphere. Energy services and resources, as well as seasonal demand, will be increasingly affected by changing trends, increasing variability, greater extremes and large inter-annual variations in climate parameters in some regions. All evidence suggests that adaptation is not an optional add-on but an essential reckoning on par with other business risks. Existing energy infrastructure, new infrastructure and future planning need to consider emerging climate conditions and impacts on design, construction, operation, and maintenance. Integrated risk-based planning processes will be critical to address the climate change impacts and harmonize actions within and across sectors. Also, awareness, knowledge, and capacity impede mainstreaming of climate adaptation into the energy sector. However, the formal knowledge base is still nascent?information needs are complex and to a certain extent regionally and sector specific. This report provides an up-to-date compendium of what is known about weather variability and projected climate trends and their impacts on energy service provision and demand. It discusses emerging practices and tools for managing these impacts and integrating climate considerations into planning processes and operational practices in an environment of uncertainty. It focuses on energy sector adaptation, rather than mitigation which is not discussed in this report. This report draws largely on available scientific and peer-reviewed literature in the public domain and takes the perspective of the developing world to the extent possible.
eBook
Reducing the vulnerability of Moldova's agricultural systems to climate change
Changes in climate and their impact on agricultural systems and rural economies are already evident throughout Europe and Central Asia (ECA). Adaptation measures now in use in Moldova, largely piecemeal efforts, will be insufficient to prevent impacts on agricultural production over the coming decades. There is growing interest at country and development partner levels to have a better understanding of the exposure, sensitivities, and impacts of climate change at farm level, and to develop and prioritize adaptation measures to mitigate the adverse consequences. The approach of this volume is predicated on strong country ownership and participation, and is defined by its emphasis on 'win-win' or 'no regrets' solutions to the multiple challenges posed by climate change for the farmers of Eastern Europe and Central Asia. The solutions are measures that increase resilience to future climate change, boost current productivity despite the greater climate variability already occurring, and limit greenhouse gas emissions-also known as 'climate-smart agriculture.' Specifically, this report provides a menu of climate change adaptation options for the agriculture and water resources sectors, along with specific recommendations that are tailored to three distinct Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs) within Moldova. This menu reflects the results of three inter-related activities, conducted jointly by the team and local partners: 1) quantitative economic modeling of baseline conditions and the effects of climate change and an array of adaptation options; 2) qualitative analysis conducted by the expert team of agronomists, crop modelers, and water resources experts; and 3) input from a series of participatory workshops for national decision makers and farmers in each of the AEZs. This report provides a summary of the methods, data, results, and adaptation options for each of these activities.
eBook
Reducing the vulnerability of Albania's agricultural systems to climate change
Adapting Albanian Agriculture to a Changing Climate: A Path to Resilience and SustainabilityThis study provides a clear and comprehensive plan for aligning agricultural policies with climate change in Albania. It details developing the capabilities of key agricultural institutions and making needed investments in infrastructure, support services, and on-farm improvements.
* Understand the economic impacts of climate change on Albanian agriculture.
* Discover sustainable adaptation strategies for agricultural systems.
* Implement policy recommendations to support climate change adaptation.
For policymakers, agricultural experts, researchers, and donor communities interested in climate change adaptation in Albania and similar regions. This study offers insights and practical guidance for building climate-resilient agricultural systems.
eBook
Description and basic evaluation of simulated mean state, internal variability, and climate sensitivity in MIROC6
The sixth version of the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), called MIROC6, was cooperatively developed by a Japanese modeling community. In the present paper, simulated mean climate, internal climate variability, and climate sensitivity in MIROC6 are evaluated and briefly summarized in comparison with the previous version of our climate model (MIROC5) and observations. The results show that the overall reproducibility of mean climate and internal climate variability in MIROC6 is better than that in MIROC5. The tropical climate systems (e.g., summertime precipitation in the western Pacific and the eastward-propagating Madden–Julian oscillation) and the midlatitude atmospheric circulation (e.g., the westerlies, the polar night jet, and troposphere–stratosphere interactions) are significantly improved in MIROC6. These improvements can be attributed to the newly implemented parameterization for shallow convective processes and to the inclusion of the stratosphere. While there are significant differences in climates and variabilities between the two models, the effective climate sensitivity of 2.6 K remains the same because the differences in radiative forcing and climate feedback tend to offset each other. With an aim towards contributing to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, designated simulations tackling a wide range of climate science issues, as well as seasonal to decadal climate predictions and future climate projections, are currently ongoing using MIROC6.
Journal Article
Increasing resilience to climate change in the agricultural sector of the Middle East
The increasing resilience to climate change in the agricultural sector report presents local-level priorities, informed by stakeholder input, to build agricultural resilience in both countries. The objectives of this study were threefold: (1) to improve the understanding of climate change projections and impacts on rural communities and livelihoods in selected regions of Jordan and Lebanon, specifically the Jordan River Valley and Lebanon's Bekaa Valley; (2) to engage local communities, farmers, local experts, and local and national government representatives in a participatory fashion in helping craft agricultural adaptation options to climate change; and (3) to develop local and regional climate change action plans that formulate recommendations for investment strategies and strategic interventions in local agricultural systems. The climate challenges confronting development in the Middle East are particularly stark. This region, and in particular its rural people, face what might be called a \"triple threat\" from climate change. First, the Middle East is already one of the driest and most water-scarce regions of the world (World Bank 2011a) and faces severe challenges posed by high temperatures and limited water supplies. This report to assist Jordan and Lebanon in understanding the specific challenges and opportunities posed by climate change in the agricultural sector.
eBook
Robustness and uncertainties in global multivariate wind-wave climate projections
Understanding climate-driven impacts on the multivariate global wind-wave climate is paramount to effective offshore/coastal climate adaptation planning. However, the use of single-method ensembles and variations arising from different methodologies has resulted in unquantified uncertainty amongst existing global wave climate projections. Here, assessing the first coherent, community-driven, multi-method ensemble of global wave climate projections, we demonstrate widespread ocean regions with robust changes in annual mean significant wave height and mean wave period of 5–15% and shifts in mean wave direction of 5–15°, under a high-emission scenario. Approximately 50% of the world’s coastline is at risk from wave climate change, with ~40% revealing robust changes in at least two variables. Furthermore, we find that uncertainty in current projections is dominated by climate model-driven uncertainty, and that single-method modelling studies are unable to capture up to ~50% of the total associated uncertainty.
Journal Article