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Fossil fuels—coal, oil and gas—supply most of the world’s energy and also form the basis of many products essential for everyday life. Their use is the largest contributor to the carbon dioxide emissions that drive global climate change, prompting joint efforts to find renewable alternatives that might enable a carbon-neutral society by as early as 2050. There are clear paths for renewable electricity to replace fossil-fuel-based energy, but the transport fuels and chemicals produced in oil refineries will still be needed. We can attempt to close the carbon cycle associated with their use by electrifying refinery processes and by changing the raw materials that go into a refinery from fossils fuels to carbon dioxide for making hydrocarbon fuels and to agricultural and municipal waste for making chemicals and polymers. We argue that, with sufficient long-term commitment and support, the science and technology for such a completely fossil-free refinery, delivering the products required after 2050 (less fuels, more chemicals), could be developed. This future refinery will require substantially larger areas and greater mineral resources than is the case at present and critically depends on the capacity to generate large amounts of renewable energy for hydrogen production and carbon dioxide capture. Efforts to find renewable alternatives to fossil fuels that might enable a carbon-neutral society by 2050 are described, as well as outlining a possible roadmap towards a refinery of the future and evaluating its requirements.

To limit global warming to a rise of 2 °C compared to pre-industrial levels, we cannot use all of our fossil fuel reserves; here an integrated assessment model shows that this temperature limit implies that we must leave unused a third of our oil reserves, half of our gas reserves and over 80 per cent of our coal reserves during the next 40 years, and indicates where these are geographically located. Regional choices between fossil fuels and climate warming If global warming is to be limited in this century to the much-publicized 2 °C rise compared to pre-industrial levels, fossil fuel use and the associated release of greenhouse gases will need to be severely limited. This raises questions regarding the specific quantities and locations of oil, gas and coal that can be safely exploited. Christophe McGlade and Paul Ekins use an integrated assessment model to explore the implications of the 2 °C warming limit for different regions' fossil fuel production. They find that, globally, a third of oil reserves, half of gas reserves and over 80% of current coal reserves should remain unused during the next 40 years in order to meet the 2 °C target and that the development of resources in the Arctic and any increase in unconventional oil production are incompatible with efforts to limit climate change. Policy makers have generally agreed that the average global temperature rise caused by greenhouse gas emissions should not exceed 2 °C above the average global temperature of pre-industrial times 1 . It has been estimated that to have at least a 50 per cent chance of keeping warming below 2 °C throughout the twenty-first century, the cumulative carbon emissions between 2011 and 2050 need to be limited to around 1,100 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide (Gt CO 2 ) 2 , 3 . However, the greenhouse gas emissions contained in present estimates of global fossil fuel reserves are around three times higher than this 2 , 4 , and so the unabated use of all current fossil fuel reserves is incompatible with a warming limit of 2 °C. Here we use a single integrated assessment model that contains estimates of the quantities, locations and nature of the world’s oil, gas and coal reserves and resources, and which is shown to be consistent with a wide variety of modelling approaches with different assumptions 5 , to explore the implications of this emissions limit for fossil fuel production in different regions. Our results suggest that, globally, a third of oil reserves, half of gas reserves and over 80 per cent of current coal reserves should remain unused from 2010 to 2050 in order to meet the target of 2 °C. We show that development of resources in the Arctic and any increase in unconventional oil production are incommensurate with efforts to limit average global warming to 2 °C. Our results show that policy makers’ instincts to exploit rapidly and completely their territorial fossil fuels are, in aggregate, inconsistent with their commitments to this temperature limit. Implementation of this policy commitment would also render unnecessary continued substantial expenditure on fossil fuel exploration, because any new discoveries could not lead to increased aggregate production.

With sources of renewable energy spreading fast, all sectors can do more to decarbonize the world, argue Christiana Figueres and colleagues. With sources of renewable energy spreading fast, all sectors can do more to decarbonize the world, argue Christiana Figueres and colleagues.

The thermal coal supply chain serves as core infrastructure for ensuring the safe and stable supply of electricity in China. Effective risk management and control of this supply chain are therefore critical to national energy security and socio-economic development. However, the thermal coal supply chain involves multiple complex risk dimensions, including cross-regional multi-entity coordination, a complex network structure, and a dynamic policy environment. Traditional risk analysis methods often fall short in depicting the concurrent events and dynamic propagation characteristics inherent to such a system. This necessitates systematically investigating the thermal coal supply chain within the Coal–Electricity Joint Venture (CEJV) operational framework, which primarily involves equity-based consolidation and long-term contractual coordination between coal producers and power generators, to comprehensively analyze its critical risk factors and transmission mechanisms. Initially, based on the integration of coal-fired power joint operation policy evolution and industry characteristics, 28 risk factors were identified across three dimensions: internal enterprise, external environment, and overall structure. These encompassed production fluctuation risks, thermal coal transport process risks, and insufficient supply chain flexibility. A dynamic behavior model for the thermal coal supply chain was constructed by analyzing the causal relationships among these risk factors, based on the operational processes of each link. Utilizing Petri net simulation technology enables a quantitative analysis of supply chain risks, facilitating the identification of bottleneck links and potential risk points. Through model simulation, 18 key risk factors were determined, providing a theoretical basis for optimizing supply chain resilience within CEJV enterprises. The limitations of traditional methods in dynamic process modeling and industrial applicability were addressed through a Petri net-based methodology, thereby establishing a novel analytical paradigm for risk management in complex energy supply chains.

PurposeThe application of lean and quality improvement methods is very common in process improvement projects at organisational levels. The purpose of this research is to assess the adoption of Lean Six Sigma™ approaches for addressing a complex process-related issue in the coal industry.Design/methodology/approachThe sticky coal problem was investigated from the perspective of process-related issues. Issues were addressed using a blended Lean value stream of supply chain interfaces and waste minimisation through the Six Sigma™ DMAIC problem-solving approach, taking into consideration cross-organisational processes.FindingsIt was found that the tendency to “solve the problem” at the receiving location without communication to the upstream was, and is still, a common practice that led to the main problem of downstream issues. The application of DMAIC Six Sigma™ helped to address the broader problem. The overall operations were improved significantly, showing the reduction of sticky coal/wagon hang-up in the downstream coal handling terminal.Research limitations/implicationsThe Lean Six Sigma approaches were adopted using DMAIC across cross-organisational supply chain processes. However, blending Lean and Six Sigma methods needs to be empirically tested across other sectors.Practical implicationsThe proposed methodology, using a framework of Lean Six Sigma approaches, could be used to guide practitioners in addressing similar complex and recurring issues in the manufacturing sector.Originality/valueThis research introduces a novel approach to process analysis, selection and contextualised improvement using a combination of Lean Six Sigma™ tools, techniques and methodologies sustained within a supply chain with certified ISO 9001 quality management systems.

The successful supply of an economy with coal fuel, for a country that carries out its large-scale extraction and import, is a complex production and logistics problem. Violations of the usual supply scheme in conditions of crises in the energy markets, international conflicts, etc., lead to the problem of simultaneous restructuring of the entire supply scheme. This requires changes in the directions and capacities of domestic production and imports. In this article, the above problem is solved by the economic and mathematical model of production type. The developed model includes subsystems of domestic production and import supply. The results of modeling economy supply with thermal coal for different values of demand are given. The model was used to determine the amounts of coal production for Ukraine with the structure of the coal industry of 2021 and under the condition of anthracite consumers’ transformation to the high volatile coal. Simulations have shown that eliminating the use of anthracite requires the modernization of existing coal mines. Under those conditions, the import of high volatile coal will amount to 3.751 million tons in 2030 and 11.8 million tons in 2035. The amounts of coking coal imports will be 5.46 million tons, 5.151 million tons, and 7.377 million tons in 2025, 2030, and 2035, respectively.

Within an uncertain environment and following carbon trade policies, this study uses the Extended Exergy Accounting (EEA) method for coal supply chains (SCs) in eight of the world's most significant coal consuming countries. The purpose is to improve the sustainability of coal SCs in terms of Joules rather than money while considering economic, environmental, and social aspects. This model is a multi-product economic production quantity (EPQ) with a single-vendor multi-buyer with shortage as a backorder. Within the SC, there are some real constraints, such as inventory turnover ratio, waste disposal to the environment, carbon dioxide emissions, and available budgets for customers. For optimization purposes, three recent metaheuristic algorithms, including Ant Lion Optimizer, Lion Optimization Algorithm, and Whale Optimization Algorithm, are suggested to determine a near-optimum solution to an \"exergy fuzzy nonlinear integer-programming (EFNIP).\" Moreover, an exact method (GAMS) is employed to validate the results of the suggested algorithms. Additionally, sensitivity analyses with different percentages of exergy parameters, such as capital, labor, and environmental remediation, are done to gain a deeper understanding of sustainability improvement in coal SCs. The results showed that sustainable coal SC in the USA has the lowest fuzzy total exergy, while Poland and China have the highest.

An ambitious plan to slash greenhouse-gas emissions must clear some high technical and economic hurdles.

The critical strategic plan of the new dual circulation development pattern provides new strategic opportunities for the modernization of China’s coal supply chain. This paper presents new ideas for the sustainable development of the coal supply chain. To significantly improve the systematic and scientific evaluation of the sustainable development of China’s coal supply chain under the background of “dual circulation”, a sustainability evaluation index system for the coal supply chain is proposed, which contains five dimensions. Furthermore, an evaluation model is built based on multi-granularity unbalanced decision-making and TOPSIS theory. On this basis, an empirical study was carried out using a coal supply chain in China as an example, and scientific and effective development countermeasures are presented, which effectively promote new development and build unique competitive advantages for the energy industry.

The raw material economy determines energy security for individual countries in the world. Coal is one of the most important energy carriers for electricity production and heat generation. World market trends of fossil raw materials such as hard coal and lignite were presented. In the European Union a significant decrease in coal and lignite consumption has been observed in recent years. This situation is primarily related to the accelerating decarbonisation policy and support of renewable energy sources, which are considered to be environmentally friendly. The pandemic occurring in recent years has also played an important role in shaping the raw materials market. The author shows the possibilities and directions in which the coal economy has prospects for development and expansion. The amount of the world’s coal resources is presented, as well as the size of the global consumption of the raw material in the 2000–2011 years, specifying in China, India, Asia, the USA and the countries of the European Union. The structure of the coal economy is presented in the light of the policies and laws enacted by the European Union Comission, in particular in Poland, Germany and France. The appearance of the hard coal sector and lignite sector in Poland is described in detail. The size of resources was given in terms of coal classification. The presented data were based on a range of information and reports from world organizations such as the International Energy Agency or British Petroleum.