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We propose a generic approach to stochastic model improvement by first introducing an archetypal algorithm based on error minimisation and establishing two results on the weak convergence of the probability laws associated with the models under improvement. We then present two concrete instances of this approach: Generalised Linear Models and classical multivariate models assessed using a neural network. In both cases, we illustrate the methodology using economic, financial, and social data related to the determination of government bond coupon rates prior to primary market auctions. For each application, we derive weak convergence results that specify conditions under which model improvement occurs, in the sense of convergence in law of the probability distributions associated with successive models. These results ensure the convergence of the proposed archetypal algorithm and provide a probabilistic foundation for systematic model improvement.

Contingent capital in the form of debt that converts to equity when a bank faces financial distress has been proposed as a mechanism to enhance financial stability and avoid costly government rescues. Specific proposals vary in their choice of conversion trigger and conversion mechanism. We analyze the case of contingent capital with a capital-ratio trigger and partial and ongoing conversion. The capital ratio we use is based on accounting or book values to approximate the regulatory ratios that determine capital requirements for banks. The conversion process is partial and ongoing in the sense that each time a bank's capital ratio reaches the minimum threshold, just enough debt is converted to equity to meet the capital requirement, so long as the contingent capital has not been depleted. We derive closed-form expressions for the market value of such securities when the firm's asset value is modeled as geometric Brownian motion, and from these we get formulas for the fair yield spread on the convertible debt. A key step in the analysis is an explicit expression for the fraction of equity held by the original shareholders and the fraction held by converted investors in the contingent capital. This paper was accepted by Gérard P. Cachon, stochastic models and simulation.

We examine the role of the coupon choice in bond contracts as a signaling mechanism in the presence of information asymmetry between borrowers and lenders about the credit quality of the borrower. Prior literature focuses on the use of maturity as a signaling mechanism. We conjecture that the coupon is a more effective signaling mechanism. We exploit the enactment of Regulation Fair Disclosure (RegFD) as an exogenous shock to the level of information asymmetry, and employ both bond- and equity market-based variables of information asymmetry to test our conjecture. We find that following the enactment of RegFD, the coupon rates of bonds issued by unrated firms increase relatively more than those of rated firms, consistent with the coupon choice addressing information asymmetry. We fail to find similar increases in maturity. Our inferences remain the same when using the probability of informed trade to measure relative changes in information asymmetry around the enactment of RegFD. We also draw similar conclusions utilizing exogenous drops in analyst coverage that result from brokerage house closures as an alternative quasi-natural experiment. Finally, we provide evidence that the coupon is used more extensively when issuance costs are higher, precisely when maturity is predicted to be a less efficient contract term with which to address information asymmetry.

Foreign direct investment and private capital flows are highly concentrated geographically, with almost half of them reaching five top destinations. These flows tend to evade many high-risk countries. Regulatory and contractual risks, particularly in infrastructure, have inhibited investments in many parts of the developing world. A core objective of the World Bank Group (WBG) has been to support the flow of private investment for development; guarantees and insurance have been among the instruments that the WBG has used to pursue this objective. This study examines three main questions: • Should the WBG be in the guarantee business? • Have guarantee instruments in the three WBG institutions been used to their potential as reflected in WBG expectations and perceived demand? • Is the WBG appropriately organized to deliver its range of guarantee products in an effective and efficient manner?

Bonds are securities instruments quite attractive for investors. There are many factors that investors consider when going to invest in bonds market. A number of recents studies indicate that yield is one of the most commonly factors considered by investors. This study aims to identify the various factors that affect bond yields, as well as to explain the mechanisms by which each factors influence yields. The methodology of the research is to analyze secondary data available in Indonesian Bond Market Directory for the period of January 2015 - July 2016. Some statistic tools were used to analyze and interpret data, such as multiple linear regression analysis, coefficient of determination, and analysis of variance, and hypothesis testing using t-test. Based on data compiled from 67 companies and 138 bonds shows that bond maturity and coupon rate have a significant positive effect on bond yield. Instead, issuer's rating has a significant negative effect on bond yield. While on the other hand, liquidity does not give significant influence to bond yield.

In this discussion of risk analysis and market valuation of collateralized debt obligations, we illustrate the effects of correlation and prioritization on valuation and discuss the \"diversity score\" (a measure of the risk of the CDO collateral pool that has been used for CDO risk analysis by rating agencies) in a simple jump diffusion setting for correlated default intensities.

The first public issue of securitized instruments is overdue in Indian capital market (SEBA 2008). Development of suitable pricing models would be helpful in trading of these instruments. This paper is focused on prepayment risk of housing loan pools. Prepayment estimation is useful to project the cash-flows, which are essential for pricing. A few prevalent models and their variations are tested and suitably adjusted to make them readily applicable on the Indian data. It is found that the prepayment can best be explained by an adjusted Chinloy model with contracted rate (and not the current rate), age of the mortgage and burnout. This behavior is unique because the current rate does not have any bearing on the prepayments in India.

This paper analyzes the before-tax and after-tax cash flows for two stylized types of inflation-indexed bonds—\"P-Linkers\" and \"C-Linkers. \"P-Linkers, like U.S. TIPS, have a fixed interest rate and link the accrued principal to changes in the consumer price index. C-Linkers are floating-rate notes that adjust the coupon interest rate for inflation while the principal is held constant. While both types of linkers provide protection from unexpected inflation, they differ significantly in terms of the amount and timing of cash flows, how and when cash flows are taxed, as well as in their price sensitivities to changes in real rates (i.e., their duration statistics). These differences impact investor strategies, especially those at aim to match the durations of assets and liabilities, and decisions about holding the inflation-indexed bonds in a tax-deferred structure like a retirement plan.

Malkiel (1962) proves an important relationship between a straight bond's coupon rate, yield, and price on the ex coupon date. This paper generalizes Malkiel's relationship to securities wherein the par or principal value is paid out over time, often unpredictably, including mortgage-backed securities and collateralized mortgage obligations. Further, we determine the relationship for the realistic case in which a bond is between payment dates and find an approximate relationship based upon a bond's clean price.