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The recent pandemic caused by COVID-19 is considered an unparalleled disaster in history. Developing a vaccine distribution network can provide valuable support to supply chain managers. Prioritizing the assigned available vaccines is crucial due to the limited supply at the final stage of the vaccine supply chain. In addition, parameter uncertainty is a common occurrence in a real supply chain, and it is essential to address this uncertainty in planning models. On the other hand, blockchain technology, being at the forefront of technological advancements, has the potential to enhance transparency within supply chains. Hence, in this study, we develop a new mathematical model for designing a COVID-19 vaccine supply chain network. In this regard, a multi-channel network model is designed to minimize total cost and maximize transparency with blockchain technology consideration. This addresses the uncertainty in supply, and a scenario-based multi-stage stochastic programming method is presented to handle the inherent uncertainty in multi-period planning horizons. In addition, fuzzy programming is used to face the uncertain price and quality of vaccines. Vaccine assignment is based on two main policies including age and population-based priority. The proposed model and method are validated and tested using a real-world case study of Iran. The optimum design of the COVID-19 vaccine supply chain is determined, and some comprehensive sensitivity analyses are conducted on the proposed model. Generally, results demonstrate that the multi-stage stochastic programming model meaningfully reduces the objective function value compared to the competitor model. Also, the results show that one of the efficient factors in increasing satisfied demand and decreasing shortage is the price of each type of vaccine and its agreement.

Breakthrough infections with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in fully vaccinated individuals are receiving intense scrutiny because of their importance in determining how long restrictions to control virus transmission will need to remain in place in highly vaccinated populations as well as in determining the need for additional vaccine doses or changes to the vaccine formulations and/or dosing intervals. Measurement of breakthrough infections is challenging outside of randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind field trials. However, laboratory and observational studies are necessary to understand the impact of waning immunity, viral variants and other determinants of changing vaccine effectiveness against various levels of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) severity. Here, we describe the approaches being used to measure vaccine effectiveness and provide a synthesis of the burgeoning literature on the determinants of vaccine effectiveness and breakthrough rates. We argue that, rather than trying to tease apart the contributions of factors such as age, viral variants and time since vaccination, the rates of breakthrough infection are best seen as a consequence of the level of immunity at any moment in an individual, the variant to which that individual is exposed and the severity of disease being considered. We also address key open questions concerning the transition to endemicity, the potential need for altered vaccine formulations to track viral variants, the need to identify immune correlates of protection, and the public health challenges of using various tools to counter breakthrough infections, including boosters in an era of global vaccine shortages.Here, Lipsitch and colleagues assess the impact of breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 infections that occur in individuals who have been vaccinated against COVID-19. The authors explain how the rate of breakthrough infections can be measured, what the causes of these infections are and discuss other key questions that need to be considered in light of these infections.

The COVID-19 pandemic is unlikely to end until there is global roll-out of vaccines that protect against severe disease and preferably drive herd immunity. Regulators in numerous countries have authorised or approved COVID-19 vaccines for human use, with more expected to be licensed in 2021. Yet having licensed vaccines is not enough to achieve global control of COVID-19: they also need to be produced at scale, priced affordably, allocated globally so that they are available where needed, and widely deployed in local communities. In this Health Policy paper, we review potential challenges to success in each of these dimensions and discuss policy implications. To guide our review, we developed a dashboard to highlight key characteristics of 26 leading vaccine candidates, including efficacy levels, dosing regimens, storage requirements, prices, production capacities in 2021, and stocks reserved for low-income and middle-income countries. We use a traffic-light system to signal the potential contributions of each candidate to achieving global vaccine immunity, highlighting important trade-offs that policy makers need to consider when developing and implementing vaccination programmes. Although specific datapoints are subject to change as the pandemic response progresses, the dashboard will continue to provide a useful lens through which to analyse the key issues affecting the use of COVID-19 vaccines. We also present original data from a 32-country survey (n=26 758) on potential acceptance of COVID-19 vaccines, conducted from October to December, 2020. Vaccine acceptance was highest in Vietnam (98%), India (91%), China (91%), Denmark (87%), and South Korea (87%), and lowest in Serbia (38%), Croatia (41%), France (44%), Lebanon (44%), and Paraguay (51%).

Widespread acceptance of COVID-19 vaccines is crucial for achieving sufficient immunization coverage to end the global pandemic, yet few studies have investigated COVID-19 vaccination attitudes in lower-income countries, where large-scale vaccination is just beginning. We analyze COVID-19 vaccine acceptance across 15 survey samples covering 10 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) in Asia, Africa and South America, Russia (an upper-middle-income country) and the United States, including a total of 44,260 individuals. We find considerably higher willingness to take a COVID-19 vaccine in our LMIC samples (mean 80.3%; median 78%; range 30.1 percentage points) compared with the United States (mean 64.6%) and Russia (mean 30.4%). Vaccine acceptance in LMICs is primarily explained by an interest in personal protection against COVID-19, while concern about side effects is the most common reason for hesitancy. Health workers are the most trusted sources of guidance about COVID-19 vaccines. Evidence from this sample of LMICs suggests that prioritizing vaccine distribution to the Global South should yield high returns in advancing global immunization coverage. Vaccination campaigns should focus on translating the high levels of stated acceptance into actual uptake. Messages highlighting vaccine efficacy and safety, delivered by healthcare workers, could be effective for addressing any remaining hesitancy in the analyzed LMICs.

The speedy approach used to tackle SARS-CoV-2 could change the future of vaccine science. The speedy approach used to tackle SARS-CoV-2 could change the future of vaccine science.

There is a realistic expectation that the global effort in vaccination will bring the pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) under control. Nonetheless, uncertainties remain about the type of long-term association that the virus will establish with the human population and, in particular, whether coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) will become an endemic disease. Although the trajectory is difficult to predict, the conditions, concepts and variables that influence this transition can be anticipated. Persistence of SARS-CoV-2 as an endemic virus, perhaps with seasonal epidemic peaks, may be fuelled by pockets of susceptible individuals and waning immunity after infection or vaccination, changes in the virus through antigenic drift that diminish protection and re-entries from zoonotic reservoirs. Here we review relevant observations from previous epidemics and discuss the potential evolution of SARS-CoV-2 as it adapts during persistent transmission in the presence of a level of population immunity. Lack of effective surveillance or adequate response could enable the emergence of new epidemic or pandemic patterns from an endemic infection of SARS-CoV-2. There are key pieces of data that are urgently needed in order to make good decisions; we outline these and propose a way forward. This Perspective discusses possible future patterns of SARS-CoV-2 infection, the development of variants, potential changes in the patterns of spread and the implications for vaccine deployment and the potential consequences of these issues for the development of policy.

Vaccinations are an effective choice to stop disease outbreaks, including COVID-19. There is little research on individuals' COVID-19 vaccination decision-making. We aimed to determine individual preferences for COVID-19 vaccinations in China, and to assess the factors influencing vaccination decision-making to facilitate vaccination coverage. A D-efficient discrete choice experiment was conducted across six Chinese provinces selected by the stratified random sampling method. Vaccine choice sets were constructed using seven attributes: vaccine effectiveness, side-effects, accessibility, number of doses, vaccination sites, duration of vaccine protection, and proportion of acquaintances vaccinated. Conditional logit and latent class models were used to identify preferences. Although all seven attributes were proved to significantly influence respondents’ vaccination decision, vaccine effectiveness, side-effects and proportion of acquaintances vaccinated were the most important. We also found a higher probability of vaccinating when the vaccine was more effective; risks of serious side effects were small; vaccinations were free and voluntary; the fewer the number of doses; the longer the protection duration; and the higher the proportion of acquaintances vaccinated. Higher local vaccine coverage created altruistic herd incentives to vaccinate rather than free-rider problems. The predicted vaccination uptake of the optimal vaccination scenario in our study was 84.77%. Preference heterogeneity was substantial. Individuals who were older, had a lower education level, lower income, higher trust in the vaccine and higher perceived risk of infection, displayed a higher probability to vaccinate. Preference heterogeneity among individuals should lead health authorities to address the diversity of expectations about COVID-19 vaccinations. To maximize COVID-19 vaccine uptake, health authorities should promote vaccine effectiveness; pro-actively communicate the absence or presence of vaccine side effects; and ensure rapid and wide media communication about local vaccine coverage.

Even with vaccination efforts in full force, the theoretical threshold for vanquishing COVID-19 looks to be out of reach. Even with vaccination efforts in full force, the theoretical threshold for vanquishing COVID-19 looks to be out of reach.

Initial optimism regarding the development of COVID-19 vaccines has been tempered by the emergence of new variants of SARS-CoV-2. Will vaccination be able to contain the pandemic? How can we best optimize the limited supplies of vaccines available and what should future COVID-19 vaccines look like?This Comment discusses how the emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern could impact on the hopes of long-term pandemic control through vaccination and the mutations that might be relevant to the design of modified vaccines.

Whether all children under 12 years of age should be vaccinated against COVID-19 remains an ongoing debate. The relatively low risk posed by acute COVID-19 in children, and uncertainty about the relative harms from vaccination and disease mean that the balance of risk and benefit of vaccination in this age group is more complex. One of the key arguments for vaccinating healthy children is to protect them from long-term consequences. Other considerations include population-level factors, such as reducing community transmission, vaccine supply, cost, and the avoidance of quarantine, school closures and other lockdown measures. The emergence of new variants of concern necessitates continual re-evaluation of the risks and benefits. In this review, we do not argue for or against vaccinating children against COVID-19 but rather outline the points to consider and highlight the complexity of policy decisions on COVID-19 vaccination in this age group.