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The UK’s departure from the European Union (EU) represents a major shift in the diplomatic strategy of one of Europe’s leading economic, diplomatic and security players. This article limits its focus to the UK’s European diplomatic strategy. The article argues that the UK’s future relationship with the EU will condition the UK’s broader diplomatic approach to Europe. But in exiting the EU the ambitions and modalities of the UK’s other bilateral and multilateral relationships in Europe will undergo a recalibration. With the UK government having struggled since June 2016 to provide comprehensive detail on its ambitions for its future economic, political and security relationship with the EU, the development of the broader aspects of the UK’s post-Brexit European diplomatic strategy has been retarded. However, through analysis of key speeches, government white papers, and other supporting documents and statements (and the experience of negotiating Brexit with the EU27), the outlines of a nascent post-Brexit UK European diplomatic strategy can be discerned. Whether this strategy will be adequate to provide the UK with a significant degree of influence on Europe’s international relations and whether it gives the UK sufficient ability to addresses the key challenges that it will face in Europe is less certain.

By the early 1990s, the private European Currency Unit (ECU) became the third largest currency in the bond market, after the dollar and the yen. This article explores the rise of the ECU private market in the 1980s. It argues that the ECU’s political links with the European Economic Community (EEC) were central to its successful development, but also that business actors, by devising a marketable ECU, played a role in advancing the project of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), whether voluntarily or not. The article draws on archival evidence from the records of banks and companies, business associations, as well as European institutions, national governments, and central banks. It sheds new light on the role of business influence in public affairs in the late twentieth century, the history of monetary integration and the making of the EMU, and the history of money and private currencies. It thereby shows how the ECU served as a rehearsal for the EMU.

Betting quotes provide valuable information on market-implied probabilities for outcomes of events such as elections or referendums, which may have an impact on exchange rates. We generate exchange-rate forecasts around such events based on a model that combines risk-neutral event probabilities implied from betting quotes with risk-neutral exchange-rate densities extracted from currency option prices. Its application to predict exchange rates around the Brexit referendum and the U.S. presidential elections shows that these forecasts, conditional on the respective outcomes, were accurate, and markets were able to separate their views on the likelihood and the impact of these events.

Especially with the Asian financial crisis of 1997–98, Asian countries have advocated a profound reform of the international financial architecture. Their proposals focused on two main axes: a reform of the global financial system, and stronger regional monetary integration in Asia. There are here significant parallels with the ideas of Robert Triffin (1911–1993). Triffin became famous with trenchant analyses of the vulnerabilities of the international monetary system. The Triffin dilemma is still present among international monetary policy-makers, also in Asia. Triffin put forward several proposals for reforming the global monetary system, but he also developed proposals for regional monetary integration. These were very much based on his experience with the European Payments Union, and focused on the creation of a (European) reserve fund and a (European) currency unit. In this paper we focus on Triffin’s proposals for an Asian payments union in the late 1960s, giving special attention to Japan (in Triffin’s time, the biggest Asian economy; moreover, Triffin had an important Japanese network).

This study analyses the prediction performance of the Asian Currency Unit (ACU) by employing variant methods including the Back-Propagation Neural Networks (BPN), Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), Time-Delay Recurrent Neural Network (TDRNN), General Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH), and random walk models. The results show that Artificial Neural Network models outperform GARCH and random walk models. The BPN model presents prominent forecasting performance in most division conditions. The study further verifies the causes of contagion of the Asian financial crisis using the Adaptive Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). The empirical results indicate that the contagion effect would most likely be influenced by tight financial linkage and conditions of macroeconomic similarity as well.

PurposeThis study aims to research the effects of unemployment wages current account and consumer price index (CPI) on the real gross domestic product (RGDP), which, in the optimum currency area (OCA) theory, supposes that countries with higher factor mobility can significantly profit from the currency area. However, in this study, it is shown that the considered optimum currency crisis (OCC) model is affected by mobility factors, as the defined theory has not been perfectly realised in the Eurozone.Design/methodology/approachIn this study, Breusch–Pagan–Godfrey and Lagrange multiplier (LM) tests are used for supporting the survey for better estimation of the panel cointegration tests, where Pedroni's (1995, 1997) technique is used. The unit root tests are employed, of which the Phillip–Perron and augmented Dickey–Fuller tests (unit root test, Dickey, D. and W. Fuller, 1979) are considered.FindingsIt can be concluded that demand shocks will tend to be more asymmetric instead of being symmetric, even though they are in the customs union (CU). However, Polish workers in a given scenario may move to Germany, but because of the rigidity of the labour market and qualification differences between workers, the interregional integration of member countries is reduced, and this reduces the absorption of asymmetric shocks. In Germany, where strong employment protection and rigidity are observed in comparison to Poland, although there has been historical migration and economical collaboration, unfortunately, the integration of the two countries’ economies has not been realised.Research limitations/implicationsQuantitative research on fiscal union and the estimation of its effects is not possible because there is no practical experience of fiscal union throughout the European Union (EU). However, quantitative research is used for estimating the effects of OCA in the Eurozone. Quantitative investigation is particularly focused on the monetary union and single currency and its impact on growth rate. In this study, the ordinary least squares (OLS) method and panel cointegration test are employed for estimating the effects of the considered variables.Practical implicationsThe Eurozone and the application of a single currency throughout the EU was a considerably difficult task. In addition, the adoption of a single currency was not easy for those member countries that fulfilled the “convergence criteria” (or “Maastricht criteria”) and who joined the Eurozone, because only adoption is not enough; maintenance of those criteria is also required. This study analysed the application of the Eurozone in the light of the OCA of Mundel's theory.Social implicationsThe OCA is important for member countries’ economic relations. However, the application of a single currency is not easy and needs to be controlled and regulated to ensure best practises throughout the Eurozone. Monetary integration is not a simple process, and Eurozone countries’ financial difficulties affect each other’s markets’ indifferent aspects. Particularly in any market recession, demand shocks tend to have different effects. Furthermore, in comparison to the monetary union, the CU has a considerable impact on trade enlargement.Originality/valueIn this study, the effects of the independent variables “wages, unemployment, CPI and capital flow” on the dependent variable “RGDP” is considered, which, in the OCA theory, supposes that countries with higher factor mobility can significantly profit from the currency area. In application, it was turned into crisis because of inadequate monetary and fiscal application. In this paper OCA is questioned in the light of the Eurozone for bringing better understanding to these difficulties. The considered model and estimations are used for evaluating to create sustainable monetary integration for economic growth.

This paper uses principal components analysis to describe the evolution of current account imbalances in a sample of 18 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries from 1950 to 2020. The analysis shows, using only statistical methods, how two groups of countries formed in the 1980s. There is the current account surplus group including countries in Northern Europe, Japan and Switzerland and then the deficit group including the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia and several countries in Southern Europe. The divergence cannot be attributed to divergence in fiscal and monetary policy. Instead, there is some support for the thesis of Robert Aliber set out in another paper in this issue that capital flows between countries affect exchange rates, asset prices and the current account. The paper builds on two earlier papers in this journal by the same author, one showing how countries that have experienced a financial crisis tend to subsequently develop current account surpluses and the other showing how surpluses and deficits caused by capital flows affect the domestic real economy.

This paper aims to investigate whether the banking and stock market measures among European Union countries have been subject to a convergence process in order to verify whether the transition from the European Monetary System to the Single Currency in the last five decades have led to the integration of financial markets.We show that banking and stock market measures tend to converge across the EU over time, and the process is even improved by controlling for the quality of country level institutions and a range of macroeconomic variables. We conclude that there is a degree of success in the financial integration process of EU countries and therefore recommend that the EU accelerates financial integration to completion rather than to slowing the process.

Σκοπός της διπλωματικής εργασίας είναι η μελέτη της επίδρασης του χρηματοδοτικού προγράμματος HORIZON 2020 (H2020) στο ελληνικό σύστημα έρευνας. Το Η2020 αποτέλεσε βασικό χρηματοδοτικό εργαλείο της Ευρωπαϊκής Ένωσης για δράσεις έρευνας και καινοτομίας, κατά την περίοδο 2014-2020. Ειδικότερα, η εργασία επικεντρώνεται στην αποτύπωση της συμμετοχής των ελληνικών ερευνητικών φορέων στο πρόγραμμα και στον τρόπο με τον οποίο έχει επηρεάσει την ερευνητική δραστηριότητα στη χώρα. Δεν αποτελεί αντικείμενο μελέτης της εργασίας η επίδραση άλλων δράσεων Ε&Α που χρηματοδοτούνται από ευρωπαϊκούς πόρους, όπως οι δράσεις στο πλαίσιο της Στρατηγικής Έξυπνης Εξειδίκευσης από την πολιτική συνοχής.Η μεθοδολογία της εργασίας σχεδιάστηκε με στόχο την όσο το δυνατόν ακριβέστερη κατανόηση της επίδρασης του προγράμματος στο ελληνικό σύστημα έρευνας. Αρχικά, διεξήχθη βιβλιογραφική ανασκόπηση για την κατανόηση του θεωρητικού πλαισίου σχετικά με την επίδραση τόσο της ευρωπαϊκής δημόσιας πολιτικής για Έρευνα και Ανάπτυξη (Ε&Α) στην αντίστοιχη εθνική δημόσια πολιτική όσο και για την επίδραση συναφών χρηματοδοτικών προγραμμάτων στο εθνικό σύστημα έρευνας.Επιπλέον, πραγματοποιήθηκε δευτερογενής έρευνα, αντλώντας δεδομένα από επίσημες εθνικές και ευρωπαϊκές πηγές για την εκπόνηση της ποσοτικής ανάλυσης. Σημαντικό μέρος της μεθοδολογίας αποτέλεσε η συλλογή πρωτογενών δεδομένων μέσω ερωτηματολογίων, τα οποία διανεμήθηκαν σε άμεσα συμμετέχοντες στο πρόγραμμα ή έμμεσα εμπλεκόμενους λόγω της επαγγελματικής τους ιδιότητας στον σχεδιασμό, την υλοποίηση ή αποτίμηση δράσεων έρευνας. Ο συνδυασμός της τριπλής προσέγγισης με την βιβλιογραφική επισκόπηση, την ποσοτική και ποιοτική ανάλυση εξυπηρετεί την πολυεπίπεδη αποτύπωση της επίδρασης του προγράμματος.1.1 Εννοιολογικό πλαίσιοΣτην ενότητα αυτή θα αποσαφηνιστούν οι βασικές έννοιες που αφορούν την μελέτη του ελληνικού συστήματος έρευνας, ώστε να διευκρινιστεί η χρήση τους στο πλαίσιο της παρούσας εργασίας. Οι έννοιες αυτές είναι η έρευνα, η τεχνολογία, η Έρευνα και Ανάπτυξη και η καινοτομία. Επιπλέον, θα παρατεθούν ορισμένες πληροφορίες σχετικά με το σύστημα έρευνας, όπως οι τομείς εκτέλεσης Ε&Α.Η έρευνα αποτελεί την διαδικασία παραγωγής νέας γνώσης και μπορεί να είναι είτε δημόσια είτε ιδιωτική ανάλογα με την πηγή χρηματοδότησής της και τα μέσα με τα οποία αυτή πραγματοποιείται(Χρυσομαλλίδης,2013). Ο Νόμος 4310/2014 ορίζει ως έρευνα κάθε εργασία, είτε συστηματική είτε δημιουργική, που στοχεύει στην αύξηση του αποθέματος γνώσης στην κοινωνία. Κοινό στοιχείο στους ορισμούς που εντοπίζουμε βιβλιογραφικά είναι ότι η έρευνα αποσκοπεί στην παραγωγή νέας γνώσης.Σύμφωνα με το εγχειρίδιο Frascati(2015), η Έρευνα και Ανάπτυξη αποτελεί «τη δημιουργική και συστηματική εργασία που αναλαμβάνεται προκειμένου να αυξηθεί το απόθεμα της γνώσης, συμπεριλαμβανομένης της γνώσης της ανθρωπότητας, του πολιτισμού και της κοινωνίας, και να επινοηθούν νέες εφαρμογές της διαθέσιμης γνώσης». Όπως αναφέρεται και στο εγχειρίδιο, με τον όρο Ε&Α καλύπτονται τρεις δραστηριότητες: η βασική έρευνα, η εφαρμοσμένη έρευνα και η πειραματική ανάπτυξη.• H βασική έρευνα είναι πειραματική ή θεωρητική εργασία που αναλαμβάνεται με κύριο σκοπό την απόκτηση νέας γνώσης για τα υποκείμενα θεμελιώδη χαρακτηριστικά φαινομένων και παρατηρήσιμων γεγονότων, χωρίς να αποβλέπει σε συγκεκριμένη εφαρμογή ή χρήση.• Η εφαρμοσμένη έρευνα είναι πρωτότυπη έρευνα που αναλαμβάνεται με σκοπό την απόκτηση νέας γνώσης. Είναι ωστόσο, προσανατολισμένη κυρίως προς έναν συγκεκριμένο πρακτικό σκοπό ή στόχο.• Η πειραματική ανάπτυξη είναι συστηματική εργασία, η οποία αντλεί από τις γνώσεις που έχουν αποκτηθεί από την έρευνα και την πρακτική εμπειρία και παράγει πρόσθετη γνώση και η οποία προσανατολίζεται στην παραγωγή νέων προϊόντων ή διαδικασιών ή στη βελτίωση των υφιστάμενων προϊόντων ή διαδικασιών.

This paper considers the provisions of the Guernsey image rights register, which came into being in 2012, alongside the image rights protections available in the EU Member States as revealed through a Commission‐funded survey into the image rights of athletes. While it suggests several reasons for the limited popularity of the register and notes that the applicable regimes depend on whether violations are by third parties or by those with whom the performer is currently within a contractual relationship, it highlights the Guernsey scheme's potential benefits to performers, particularly in the field of tax planning, and makes suggestions as to how its relevance to them might be enhanced in the light of the Commission survey data and the applicable UK tax regime. By drawing on literature from masculinity and African‐American studies especially, the paper also offers suggestions as to why performer endorsement is potentially so lucrative; but it also highlights some of the industry's negative effects and suggests that, while there is not a particular ‘problem’ of image rights violations within the Member States, discussions about the benefits of standalone image rights need to be informed by an awareness of these wider issues.