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Plans to triple the area of plantations will not meet 1.5 °C climate goals. New natural forests can, argue Simon L. Lewis, Charlotte E. Wheeler and colleagues. Plans to triple the area of plantations will not meet 1.5 °C climate goals. New natural forests can, argue Simon L. Lewis, Charlotte E. Wheeler and colleagues. Two workers handle tree saplings being grown to reforest ​burned areas of Indonesia

Global net land carbon uptake or net biome production (NBP) has increased during recent decades 1 . Whether its temporal variability and autocorrelation have changed during this period, however, remains elusive, even though an increase in both could indicate an increased potential for a destabilized carbon sink 2 , 3 . Here, we investigate the trends and controls of net terrestrial carbon uptake and its temporal variability and autocorrelation from 1981 to 2018 using two atmospheric-inversion models, the amplitude of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO 2 concentration derived from nine monitoring stations distributed across the Pacific Ocean and dynamic global vegetation models. We find that annual NBP and its interdecadal variability increased globally whereas temporal autocorrelation decreased. We observe a separation of regions characterized by increasingly variable NBP, associated with warm regions and increasingly variable temperatures, lower and weaker positive trends in NBP and regions where NBP became stronger and less variable. Plant species richness presented a concave-down parabolic spatial relationship with NBP and its variability at the global scale whereas nitrogen deposition generally increased NBP. Increasing temperature and its increasing variability appear as the most important drivers of declining and increasingly variable NBP. Our results show increasing variability of NBP regionally that can be mostly attributed to climate change and that may point to destabilization of the coupled carbon–climate system. Increasing variability of net biome production over recent decades may be due to climate change and points to destabilization of the carbon–climate system.

Estimates of carbon flux to the deep oceans are essential for our understanding of global carbon budgets. Sinking of detrital material (“biological pump”) is usually thought to be the main biological component of this flux. Here, we identify an additional biological mechanism, the seasonal “lipid pump,” which is highly efficient at sequestering carbon into the deep ocean. It involves the vertical transport and metabolism of carbon rich lipids by overwintering zooplankton. We show that one species, the copepodCalanus finmarchicusoverwintering in the North Atlantic, sequesters an amount of carbon equivalent to the sinking flux of detrital material. The efficiency of the lipid pump derives from a nearcomplete decoupling between nutrient and carbon cycling—a “lipid shunt,” and its direct transport of carbon through the mesopelagic zone to below the permanent thermocline with very little attenuation. Inclusion of the lipid pump almost doubles the previous estimates of deep-ocean carbon sequestration by biological processes in the North Atlantic.

Forest fragmentation is a ubiquitous, ongoing global phenomenon with profound impacts on the growing conditions of the world’s remaining forest. The temperate broadleaf forest makes a large contribution to the global terrestrial carbon sink but is also the most heavily fragmented forest biome in the world. We use field measurements and geospatial analyses to characterize carbon dynamics in temperate broadleaf forest fragments. We show that forest growth and biomass increase by 89 ± 17% and 64 ± 12%, respectively, from the forest interior to edge, but ecosystem edge enhancements are not currently captured by models or approaches to quantifying regional C balance. To the extent that the findings from our research represent the forest of southern New England in the United States, we provide a preliminary estimate that edge growth enhancement could increase estimates of the region’s carbon uptake and storage by 13 ± 3% and 10 ± 1%, respectively. However, we also find that forest growth near the edge declines three times faster than that in the interior in response to heat stress during the growing season. Using climate projections, we show that future heat stress could reduce the forest edge growth enhancement by one-third by the end of the century. These findings contrast studies of edge effects in the world’s other major forest biomes and indicate that the strength of the temperate broadleaf forest carbon sink and its capacity to mitigate anthropogenic carbon emissions may be stronger, but also more sensitive to climate change than previous estimates suggest.

Forests play a key role in the carbon cycle as they store huge quantities of organic carbon, most of which is stored in soils, with a smaller part being held in vegetation. While the carbon storage capacity of forests is influenced by forestry, the long-term impacts of forest managers' decisions on soil organic carbon (SOC) remain unclear. Using a meta-analysis approach, we showed that conventional biomass harvests preserved the SOC of forests, unlike intensive harvests where logging residues were harvested to produce fuelwood. Conventional harvests caused a decrease in carbon storage in the forest floor, but when the whole soil profile was taken into account, we found that this loss in the forest floor was compensated by an accumulation of SOC in deeper soil layers. Conversely, we found that intensive harvests led to SOC losses in all layers of forest soils. We assessed the potential impact of intensive harvests on the carbon budget, focusing on managed European forests. Estimated carbon losses from forest soils suggested that intensive biomass harvests could constitute an important source of carbon transfer from forests to the atmosphere (142-497 Tg-C), partly neutralizing the role of a carbon sink played by forest soils.

Forests play a major role in the global carbon cycle. Previous studies on the capacity of forests to sequester atmospheric CO2 have mostly focused on carbon uptake, but the roles of carbon turnover time and its spatiotemporal changes remain poorly understood. Here, we used long-term inventory data (1955 to 2018) from 695 mature forest plots to quantify temporal trends in living vegetation carbon turnover time across tropical, temperate, and cold climate zones, and compared plot data to 8 Earth system models (ESMs). Long-term plots consistently showed decreases in living vegetation carbon turnover time, likely driven by increased tree mortality across all major climate zones. Changes in living vegetation carbon turnover time were negatively correlated with CO2 enrichment in both forest plot data and ESM simulations. However, plot-based correlations between living vegetation carbon turnover time and climate drivers such as precipitation and temperature diverged from those of ESM simulations. Our analyses suggest that forest carbon sinks are likely to be constrained by a decrease in living vegetation carbon turnover time, and accurate projections of forest carbon sink dynamics will require an improved representation of tree mortality processes and their sensitivity to climate in ESMs.

Many marine ecosystems have the capacity for long-term storage of organic carbon (C) in what are termed \"blue carbon\" systems. While blue carbon systems (saltmarsh, mangrove, and seagrass) are efficient at long-term sequestration of organic carbon (C), much of their sequestered C may originate from other (allochthonous) habitats. Macroalgae, due to their high rates of production, fragmentation, and ability to be transported, would also appear to be able to make a significant contribution as C donors to blue C habitats. In order to assess the stability of macroalgal tissues and their likely contribution to long-term pools of C, we applied thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) to 14 taxa of marine macroalgae and coastal vascular plants. We assessed the structural complexity of multiple lineages of plant and tissue types with differing cell wall structures and found that decomposition dynamics varied significantly according to differences in cell wall structure and composition among taxonomic groups and tissue function (photosynthetic vs. attachment). Vascular plant tissues generally exhibited greater stability with a greater proportion of mass loss at temperatures >300°C (peak mass loss ~320°C) than macroalgae (peak mass loss between 175−300°C), consistent with the lignocellulose matrix of vascular plants. Greater variation in thermogravimetric signatures within and among macroalgal taxa, relative to vascular plants, was also consistent with the diversity of cell wall structure and composition among groups. Significant degradation above 600°C for some macroalgae, as well as some belowground seagrass tissues, is likely due to the presence of taxon-specific compounds. The results of this study highlight the importance of the lignocellulose matrix to the stability of vascular plant sources and the potentially significant role of refractory, taxon-specific compounds (carbonates, long-chain lipids, alginates, xylans, and sulfated polysaccharides) from macroalgae and seagrasses for their long-term sedimentary C storage. This study shows that marine macroalgae do contain refractory compounds and thus may be more valuable to long-term carbon sequestration than we previously have considered.

It is largely unknown how South America’s Andean forests affect the global carbon cycle, and thus regulate climate change. Here, we measure aboveground carbon dynamics over the past two decades in 119 monitoring plots spanning a range of >3000 m elevation across the subtropical and tropical Andes. Our results show that Andean forests act as strong sinks for aboveground carbon (0.67 ± 0.08 Mg C ha −1 y −1 ) and have a high potential to serve as future carbon refuges. Aboveground carbon dynamics of Andean forests are driven by abiotic and biotic factors, such as climate and size-dependent mortality of trees. The increasing aboveground carbon stocks offset the estimated C emissions due to deforestation between 2003 and 2014, resulting in a net total uptake of 0.027 Pg C y −1 . Reducing deforestation will increase Andean aboveground carbon stocks, facilitate upward species migrations, and allow for recovery of biomass losses due to climate change. Here, the authors investigate the aboveground carbon sink efficiency of Andean forests. The study shows the high potential of these forests to serve as future carbon refuges, and urges to reduce deforestation and increase restoration.

The impacts of enhanced nitrogen (N) deposition on the global forest carbon (C) sink and other ecosystem services may depend on whether N is deposited in reduced (mainly as ammonium) or oxidized forms (mainly as nitrate) and the subsequent fate of each. However, the fates of the two key reactive N forms and their contributions to forest C sinks are unclear. Here, we analyze results from 13 ecosystem-scale paired 15 N-labelling experiments in temperate, subtropical, and tropical forests. Results show that total ecosystem N retention is similar for ammonium and nitrate, but plants take up more labelled nitrate ( 20 15 25 %) ( mean minimum maximum ) than ammonium ( 12 8 16 %) while soils retain more ammonium ( 57 49 65 %) than nitrate ( 46 32 59 %). We estimate that the N deposition-induced C sink in forests in the 2010s  is 0.72 0.49 0.96  Pg C yr −1 , higher than previous estimates because of a larger role for oxidized N and greater rates of global N deposition. A study using paired 15 N tracers shows atmospheric N deposited in oxidized form is more likely retained by trees, while the reduced form is retained in soil. The authors argue that this is a greater contribution of deposited N to the global forest C sink than previously reported.