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As of April 2015, participants in the Danish Lung Cancer Screening Trial had been followed for at least 5 years since their last screening. Mortality, causes of death, and lung cancer findings are reported to explore the effect of computed tomography (CT) screening. A total of 4,104 participants aged 50-70 years at the time of inclusion and with a minimum 20 pack-years of smoking were randomized to have five annual low-dose CT scans (study group) or no screening (control group). Follow-up information regarding date and cause of death, lung cancer diagnosis, cancer stage, and histology was obtained from national registries. No differences between the two groups in lung cancer mortality (hazard ratio, 1.03; 95% confidence interval, 0.66-1.6; P = 0.888) or all-cause mortality (hazard ratio, 1.02; 95% confidence interval, 0.82-1.27; P = 0.867) were observed. More cancers were found in the screening group than in the no-screening group (100 vs. 53, respectively; P < 0.001), particularly adenocarcinomas (58 vs. 18, respectively; P < 0.001). More early-stage cancers (stages I and II, 54 vs. 10, respectively; P < 0.001) and stage IIIa cancers (15 vs. 3, respectively; P = 0.009) were found in the screening group than in the control group. Stage IV cancers were nonsignificantly more frequent in the control group than in the screening group (32 vs. 23, respectively; P = 0.278). For the highest-stage cancers (T4N3M1, 21 vs. 8, respectively; P = 0.025), this difference was statistically significant, indicating an absolute stage shift. Older participants, those with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and those with more than 35 pack-years of smoking had a significantly increased risk of death due to lung cancer, with nonsignificantly fewer deaths in the screening group. No statistically significant effects of CT screening on lung cancer mortality were found, but the results of post hoc high-risk subgroup analyses showed nonsignificant trends that seem to be in good agreement with the results of the National Lung Screening Trial. Clinical trial registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT00496977).

US guidelines now recommend lung cancer screening with low-dose CT for high-risk individuals. Reports of new nodules after baseline screening have been scarce and are inconsistent because of differences in definitions used. We aimed to identify the occurrence of new solid nodules and their probability of being lung cancer at incidence screening rounds in the Dutch-Belgian Randomized Lung Cancer Screening Trial (NELSON). In the ongoing, multicentre, randomised controlled NELSON trial, between Dec 23, 2003, and July 6, 2006, 15 822 participants who had smoked at least 15 cigarettes a day for more than 25 years or ten cigarettes a day for more than 30 years and were current smokers, or had quit smoking less than 10 years ago, were enrolled and randomly assigned to receive either screening with low-dose CT (n=7915) or no screening (n=7907). From Jan 28, 2004, to Dec 18, 2006, 7557 individuals underwent baseline screening with low-dose CT; 7295 participants underwent second and third screening rounds. We included all participants with solid non-calcified nodules, registered by the NELSON radiologists as new or smaller than 15 mm3 (study detection limit) at previous screens. Nodule volume was generated semiautomatically by software. We calculated the maximum volume doubling time for nodules with an estimated percentage volume change of 25% or more, representing the minimum growth rate for the time since the previous scan. Lung cancer diagnosis was based on histology, and benignity was based on histology or stable size for at least 2 years. The NELSON trial is registered at trialregister.nl, number ISRCTN63545820. We analysed data for participants with at least one solid non-calcified nodule at the second or third screening round. In the two incidence screening rounds, the NELSON radiologists registered 1222 new solid nodules in 787 (11%) participants. A new solid nodule was lung cancer in 49 (6%) participants with new solid nodules and, in total, 50 lung cancers were found, representing 4% of all new solid nodules. 34 (68%) lung cancers were diagnosed at stage I. Nodule volume had a high discriminatory power (area under the receiver operating curve 0·795 [95% CI 0·728–0·862]; p<0·0001). Nodules smaller than 27 mm3 had a low probability of lung cancer (two [0·5%] of 417 nodules; lung cancer probability 0·5% [95% CI 0·0–1·9]), nodules with a volume of 27 mm3 up to 206 mm3 had an intermediate probability (17 [3·1%] of 542 nodules; lung cancer probability 3·1% [1·9–5·0]), and nodules of 206 mm3 or greater had a high probability (29 [16·9%] of 172 nodules; lung cancer probability 16·9% [12·0–23·2]). A volume cutoff value of 27 mm3 or greater had more than 95% sensitivity for lung cancer. Our study shows that new solid nodules are detected at each screening round in 5–7% of individuals who undergo screening for lung cancer with low-dose CT. These new nodules have a high probability of malignancy even at a small size. These findings should be considered in future screening guidelines, and new solid nodules should be followed up more aggressively than nodules detected at baseline screening. Zorgonderzoek Nederland Medische Wetenschappen and Koningin Wilhelmina Fonds Kankerbestrijding.

BackgroundIn the USA annual lung cancer screening is recommended. However, the optimal screening strategy (eg, screening interval, screening rounds) is unknown. This study provides results of the fourth screening round after a 2.5-year interval in the Dutch-Belgian Lung Cancer Screening trial (NELSON).MethodsEurope's largest, sufficiently powered randomised lung cancer screening trial was designed to determine whether low-dose CT screening reduces lung cancer mortality by ≥25% compared with no screening after 10 years of follow-up. The screening arm (n=7915) received screening at baseline, after 1 year, 2 years and 2.5 years. Performance of the NELSON screening strategy in the final fourth round was evaluated. Comparisons were made between lung cancers detected in the first three rounds, in the final round and during the 2.5-year interval.ResultsIn round 4, 46 cancers were screen-detected and there were 28 interval cancers between the third and fourth screenings. Compared with the second round screening (1-year interval), in round 4 a higher proportion of stage IIIb/IV cancers (17.3% vs 6.8%, p=0.02) and higher proportions of squamous-cell, bronchoalveolar and small-cell carcinomas (p=0.001) were detected. Compared with a 2-year interval, the 2.5-year interval showed a higher non-significant stage distribution (stage IIIb/IV 17.3% vs 5.2%, p=0.10). Additionally, more interval cancers manifested in the 2.5-year interval than in the intervals of previous rounds (28 vs 5 and 28 vs 19).ConclusionsA 2.5-year interval reduced the effect of screening: the interval cancer rate was higher compared with the 1-year and 2-year intervals, and proportion of advanced disease stage in the final round was higher compared with the previous rounds.Trial registration numberISRCTN63545820.

Noninvasive differentiation between the squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) and adenocarcinoma (ADC) subtypes of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) could benefit patients who are unsuitable for invasive diagnostic procedures. Therefore, this study evaluates the predictive performance of a PET/CT-based radiomics model. It aims to distinguish between the histological subtypes of lung adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma, employing four different machine learning techniques. A total of 255 Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) patients were retrospectively analyzed and randomly divided into the training (n = 177) and validation (n = 78) sets, respectively. Radiomics features were extracted, and the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) method was employed for feature selection. Subsequently, models were constructed using four distinct machine learning techniques, with the top-performing algorithm determined by evaluating metrics such as accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and the area under the curve (AUC). The efficacy of the various models was appraised and compared using the DeLong test. A nomogram was developed based on the model with the best predictive efficiency and clinical utility, and it was validated using calibration curves. Results indicated that the logistic regression classifier had better predictive power in the validation cohort of the radiomic model. The combined model (AUC 0.870) exhibited superior predictive power compared to the clinical model (AUC 0.848) and the radiomics model (AUC 0.774). In this study, we discovered that the combined model, refined by the logistic regression classifier, exhibited the most effective performance in classifying the histological subtypes of NSCLC.

Objective Discriminating metastatic from benign cervical lymph nodes (LNs) in oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) patients using pretreatment computed tomography (CT) has been controversial. This study aimed to investigate whether CT-based texture analysis with machine learning can accurately identify cervical lymph node metastasis in OSCC patients. Methods Twenty-three patients (with 201 cervical LNs [150 benign, 51 metastatic] at levels I–V) who underwent preoperative contrast-enhanced CT and subsequent cervical neck dissection were enrolled. Histopathologically proven LNs were randomly divided into the training cohort (70%; n = 141, at levels I–V) and validation cohort (30%; n = 60, at level I/II). Twenty-five texture features and the nodal size of targeted LNs were analyzed on the CT scans. The nodal-based sensitivities, specificities, diagnostic accuracy rates, and the area under the curves (AUCs) of the receiver operating characteristic curves of combined features using a support vector machine (SVM) at levels I/II, I, and II were evaluated and compared with two radiologists and a dentist (readers). Results In the validation cohort, the AUCs (0.820 at level I/II, 0.820 at level I, and 0.930 at level II, respectively) of the radiomics approach were superior to three readers (0.798–0.816, 0.773–0.798, and 0.825–0.865, respectively). The best models were more specific at levels I/II and I and accurate at each level than each of the readers ( p < .05). Conclusions Machine learning–based analysis with contrast-enhanced CT can be used to noninvasively differentiate between benign and metastatic cervical LNs in OSCC patients. Key Points • The best algorithm in the validation cohort can noninvasively differentiate between benign and metastatic cervical LNs at levels I/II, I, and II. • The AUCs of the model at each level were superior to those of multireaders. • Significant differences in the specificities at level I/II and I and diagnostic accuracy rates at each level between the model and multireaders were found.

PurposeTo develop a radiomics-based model to stratify the risk of early progression (local/regional recurrence or metastasis) among patients with hypopharyngeal cancer undergoing chemoradiotherapy and modify their pretreatment plans.Materials and methodsWe randomly assigned 113 patients into two cohorts: training (n = 80) and validation (n = 33). The radiomic significant features were selected in the training cohort using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and Akaike information criterion methods, and they were used to build the radiomic model. The concordance index (C-index) was applied to evaluate the model’s prognostic performance. A Kaplan–Meier analysis and the log-rank test were used to assess risk stratification ability of models in predicting progression. A nomogram was plotted to predict individual risk of progression.ResultsComposed of four significant features, the radiomic model showed good performance in stratifying patients into high- and low-risk groups of progression in both the training and validation cohorts (log-rank test, p = 0.00016, p = 0.0063, respectively). Peripheral invasion and metastasis were selected as significant clinical variables. The combined radiomic–clinical model showed good discriminative performance, with C-indices 0.804 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.688–0.920) and 0.756 (95% CI, 0.605–0.907) in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The median progression-free survival (PFS) in the high-risk group was significantly shorter than that in the low-risk group in the training (median PFS, 9.5 m and 19.0 m, respectively; p [log-rank] < 0.0001) and validation (median PFS, 11.3 m and 22.5 m, respectively; p [log-rank] = 0.0063) cohorts.ConclusionsA radiomics-based model was established to predict the risk of progression in hypopharyngeal cancer with chemoradiotherapy.Key Points• Clinical information showed limited performance in stratifying the risk of progression among patients with hypopharyngeal cancer.• Imaging features extracted from CECT and NCCT images were independent predictors of PFS.• We combined significant features and valuable clinical variables to establish a nomogram to predict individual risk of progression.

Background This study developed a nomogram model using CT-based delta-radiomics features and clinical factors to predict pathological complete response (pCR) in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients receiving neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT). Methods The study retrospectively analyzed 232 ESCC patients who underwent pretreatment and post-treatment CT scans. Patients were divided into training (n = 186) and validation (n = 46) sets through fivefold cross-validation. 837 radiomics features were extracted from regions of interest (ROIs) delineations on CT images before and after nCRT to calculate delta values. The LASSO algorithm selected delta-radiomics features (DRF) based on classification performance. Logistic regression constructed a nomogram incorporating DRFs and clinical factors. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and area under the curve (AUC) analyses evaluated nomogram performance for predicting pCR. Results No significant differences existed between the training and validation datasets. The 4-feature delta-radiomics signature (DRS) demonstrated good predictive accuracy for pCR, with α-binormal-based and empirical AUCs of 0.871 and 0.869. T-stage ( p  = 0.001) and differentiation degree ( p  = 0.018) were independent predictors of pCR. The nomogram combined the DRS and clinical factors improved the classification performance in the training dataset (AUC αbin  = 0.933 and AUC emp  = 0.941). The validation set showed similar performance with AUCs of 0.958 and 0.962. Conclusions The CT-based delta-radiomics nomogram model with clinical factors provided high predictive accuracy for pCR in ESCC patients after nCRT.

There is no standard neoadjuvant therapy for locally advanced esophageal cancer in China. The role of neoadjuvant chemotherapy plus immunotherapy for locally advanced esophageal cancer is still being explored. This open-label, randomized phase II study was conducted at a single center between July 2019 and September 2020; 30 patients with locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) (T3, T4, or lymph-node positive) were enrolled. Patients were randomized according to the enrollment order at a 1:1 ratio to receive chemotherapy on day 1 and toripalimab on day 3 (experimental group) or chemotherapy and toripalimab on day 1 (control group). The chemotherapeutic regimen was paclitaxel and cisplatin. Surgery was performed 4 to 6 weeks after the second cycle of chemoimmunotherapy. The primary endpoint was pathological complete response (pCR) rate, and the secondary endpoint was safety and disease-free survival. Thirty patients completed at least one cycle of chemoimmunotherapy; 11 in the experimental group and 13 in the control group received surgery. R0 resection was performed in all these 24 patients. Four patients (36%) in the experimental group and one (7%) in the control group achieved pCR. The experimental group showed a statistically non-significant higher pCR rate ( = 0.079). PD-L1 combined positive score (CPS) examination was performed in 14 patients; one in the control group had a PD-L1 CPS of 10, and pCR was achieved; the remaining 13 all had ≤1, and 11 of the 13 patients received surgery in which two (in the experimental group) achieved pCR. Two patients endured ≥grade 3 adverse events, and one suffered from grade 3 immune-related enteritis after one cycle of chemoimmunotherapy and dropped off the study. Another patient died from severe pulmonary infection and troponin elevation after surgery. Although the primary endpoint was not met, the initial results of this study showed that delaying toripalimab to day 3 in chemoimmunotherapy might achieve a higher pCR rate than that on the same day, and further large-sample clinical trials are needed to verify this. ClinicalTrials.gov, identifier NCT03985670.

PurposeIncidence of anal squamous cell carcinoma (ASCC) is increasing, with curative chemoradiotherapy (CRT) as the primary treatment of non-metastatic disease. A significant proportion of patients have locoregional treatment failure (LRF), but distant relapse is uncommon. Accurate prognostication of progression-free survival (PFS) would help personalisation of CRT regimens. The study aim was to evaluate novel imaging pre-treatment features, to prognosticate for PFS in ASCC.MethodsConsecutive patients with ASCC treated with curative intent at a large tertiary referral centre who underwent pre-treatment FDG-PET/CT were included. Radiomic feature extraction was performed using LIFEx software on baseline FDG-PET/CT. Outcome data (PFS) was collated from electronic patient records. Elastic net regularisation and feature selection were used for logistic regression model generation on a randomly selected training cohort and applied to a validation cohort using TRIPOD guidelines. ROC-AUC analysis was used to compare performance of a regression model encompassing standard clinical prognostic factors (age, sex, tumour and nodal stage—model A), a radiomic feature model (model B) and a combined radiomic/clinical model (model C).ResultsA total of 189 patients were included in the study, with 145 in the training cohort and 44 in the validation cohort. Median follow-up was 35.1 and 37. 9 months, respectively for each cohort, with 70.3% and 68.2% reaching this time-point with PFS. GLCM entropy (a measure of randomness of distribution of co-occurring pixel grey-levels), NGLDM busyness (a measure of spatial frequency of changes in intensity between nearby voxels of different grey-level), minimum CT value (lowest HU within the lesion) and SMTV (a standardized version of MTV) were selected for inclusion in the prognostic model, alongside tumour and nodal stage. AUCs for performance of model A (clinical), B (radiomic) and C (radiomic/clinical) were 0.6355, 0.7403, 0.7412 in the training cohort and 0.6024, 0.6595, 0.7381 in the validation cohort.ConclusionRadiomic features extracted from pre-treatment FDG-PET/CT in patients with ASCC may provide better PFS prognosis than conventional staging parameters. With external validation, this might be useful to help personalise CRT regimens in the future.

Purpose To construct machine learning models for predicting progression free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients. Methods 204 ESCC patients were randomly divided into training cohort (n = 143) and test cohort (n = 61) according to the ratio of 7:3. Two radiomics models were constructed by radiomics features, which were selected by LASSO Cox model to predict PFS and OS, respectively. Clinical features were selected by univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards model ( p  < 0.05). Combined radiomics and clinical model was developed by selected clinical and radiomics features. The receiver operating characteristic curve, Kaplan Meier curve and nomogram were used to display the capability of constructed models. Results There were 944 radiomics features extracted based on volume of interest in CT images. There were six radiomics features and seven clinical features for PFS prediction and three radiomics features and three clinical features for OS prediction; The radiomics models showed general performance in training cohort and test cohort for prediction for prediction PFS (AUC, 0.664, 0.676. C-index, 0.65, 0.64) and OS (AUC, 0.634, 0.646.C-index, 0.64, 0.65). The combined models displayed high performance in training cohort and test cohort for prediction PFS (AUC, 0.856, 0.833. C-index, 0.81, 0.79) and OS (AUC, 0.742, 0.768. C-index, 0.72, 0.71). Conclusion We developed combined radiomics and clinical machine learning models with better performance than radiomics or clinical alone, which were used to accurate predict 3 years PFS and OS of non-surgical ESCC patients. The prediction results could provide a reference for clinical decision.