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Animal resource requirements differ among life‐history stages, and thus, habitat is most appropriately thought of as specific to a particular life stage. Accordingly, different habitats may vary in their significance as functions of (1) the sensitivity of population growth to the life stage for which the habitat is most important, (2) spatial association of each habitat to other habitats, and (3) the abundance of the habitat in question. We used an analogy to a life‐table response experiment to develop spatial models linking key habitats to rates of population increase in Greater Sage‐grouse. We parameterized models linking demographic rates to vegetation and physical attributes of habitats, including spatial association of some habitats to others, using a decade‐long study of Greater Sage‐grouse in central Nevada. We modeled the contribution of each pixel in the landscape to regional λ (finite rate of population increase) using functional relationships between demographic rates and the attributes of that pixel, and the sensitivity of λ to each demographic rate. We incorporated the following demographic rates into our model: female nesting success, survival of chicks from hatching to 45 d, and adult female annual survival. We also incorporated the probability a site was used for nesting. Chick survival (62%) and nest site selection (21%) explained most of the variance in lambda. We found that only ~8% of all habitat for Greater Sage‐grouse contributed to λ > 1. Habitat supporting population growth occurred in mid‐high elevation areas with moderate slopes, and a high percent cover of sagebrush, and in nesting areas close to late‐brood habitat. Our models indicate that a relatively small proportion of habitat available to Greater Sage‐grouse in central Nevada is responsible for maintenance of the population in our study system. We suggest that the general approach we describe here can be used to improve understanding of habitats most likely to regulate populations in other systems, providing an important tool in ecology and conservation.

Conserving a declining species that is facing many threats, including overlap of its habitats with energy extraction activities, depends upon identifying and prioritizing the value of the habitats that remain. In addition, habitat quality is often compromised when source habitats are lost or fragmented due to anthropogenic development. Our objective was to build an ecological model to classify and map habitat quality in terms of source or sink dynamics for Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in the Atlantic Rim Project Area (ARPA), a developing coalbed natural gas field in south-central Wyoming, USA. We used occurrence and survival modeling to evaluate relationships between environmental and anthropogenic variables at multiple spatial scales and for all female summer life stages, including nesting, brood-rearing, and non-brooding females. For each life stage, we created resource selection functions (RSFs). We weighted the RSFs and combined them to form a female summer occurrence map. We modeled survival also as a function of spatial variables for nest, brood, and adult female summer survival. Our survival models were mapped as survival probability functions individually and then combined with fixed vital rates in a fitness metric model that, when mapped, predicted habitat productivity (productivity map). Our results demonstrate a suite of environmental and anthropogenic variables at multiple scales that were predictive of occurrence and survival. We created a source-sink map by overlaying our female summer occurrence map and productivity map to predict habitats contributing to population surpluses (source habitats) or deficits (sink habitat) and low-occurrence habitats on the landscape. The source-sink map predicted that of the Sage-Grouse habitat within the ARPA, 30% was primary source, 29% was secondary source, 4% was primary sink, 6% was secondary sink, and 31% was low occurrence. Our results provide evidence that energy development and avoidance of energy infrastructure were probably reducing the amount of source habitat within the ARPA landscape. Our source-sink map provides managers with a means of prioritizing habitats for conservation planning based on source and sink dynamics. The spatial identification of high value (i.e., primary source) as well as suboptimal (i.e., primary sink) habitats allows for informed energy development to minimize effects on local wildlife populations.

Three flawed practices associated with model averaging coefficients for predictor variables in regression models commonly occur when making multimodel inferences in analyses of ecological data. Model-averaged regression coefficients based on Akaike information criterion (AIC) weights have been recommended for addressing model uncertainty but they are not valid, interpretable estimates of partial effects for individual predictors when there is multicollinearity among the predictor variables. Multicollinearity implies that the scaling of units in the denominators of the regression coefficients may change across models such that neither the parameters nor their estimates have common scales, therefore averaging them makes no sense. The associated sums of AIC model weights recommended to assess relative importance of individual predictors are really a measure of relative importance of models, with little information about contributions by individual predictors compared to other measures of relative importance based on effects size or variance reduction. Sometimes the model-averaged regression coefficients for predictor variables are incorrectly used to make model-averaged predictions of the response variable when the models are not linear in the parameters. I demonstrate the issues with the first two practices using the college grade point average example extensively analyzed by Burnham and Anderson. I show how partial standard deviations of the predictor variables can be used to detect changing scales of their estimates with multicollinearity. Standardizing estimates based on partial standard deviations for their variables can be used to make the scaling of the estimates commensurate across models, a necessary but not sufficient condition for model averaging of the estimates to be sensible. A unimodal distribution of estimates and valid interpretation of individual parameters are additional requisite conditions. The standardized estimates or equivalently the t statistics on unstandardized estimates also can be used to provide more informative measures of relative importance than sums of AIC weights. Finally, I illustrate how seriously compromised statistical interpretations and predictions can be for all three of these flawed practices by critiquing their use in a recent species distribution modeling technique developed for predicting Greater Sage-Grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) distribution in Colorado, USA. These model averaging issues are common in other ecological literature and ought to be discontinued if we are to make effective scientific contributions to ecological knowledge and conservation of natural resources.

Fuel breaks are increasingly being implemented at broad scales (100s to 10,000s of square kilometers) in fire-prone landscapes globally, yet there is little scientific information available regarding their ecological effects (eg habitat fragmentation). Fuel breaks are designed to reduce flammable vegetation (ie fuels), increase the safety and effectiveness of fire-suppression operations, and ultimately decrease the extent of wildfire spread. In sagebrush (Artemisia spp) ecosystems of the western US, installation of extensive linear fuel breaks is also intended to protect habitat, especially for the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), a species that is sensitive to habitat fragmentation. We examine this apparent contradiction in the Great Basin region, where invasive annual grasses have increased wildfire activity and threaten sagebrush ecosystems. Given uncertain outcomes, we examine how implementation of fuel breaks might (1) directly alter ecosystems, (2) create edges and edge effects, (3) serve as vectors for wildlife movement and plant invasions, (4) fragment otherwise contiguous sagebrush landscapes, and (5) benefit from scientific investigation intended to disentangle their ecological costs and benefits.

Growing global energy demands ensure the continued growth of energy development. Energy development in wildlife areas can significantly impact wildlife populations. Efforts to mitigate development impacts to wildlife are on-going, but the effectiveness of such efforts is seldom monitored or assessed. Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) are sensitive to energy development and likely serve as an effective umbrella species for other sagebrush-steppe obligate wildlife. We assessed the response of birds within an energy development area before and after the implementation of mitigation action. Additionally, we quantified changes in habitat distribution and abundance in pre- and post-mitigation landscapes. Sage-grouse avoidance of energy development at large spatial scales is well documented. We limited our research to directly within an energy development field in order to assess the influence of mitigation in close proximity to energy infrastructure. We used nest-location data (n = 488) within an energy development field to develop habitat selection models using logistic regression on data from 4 years of research prior to mitigation and for 4 years following the implementation of extensive mitigation efforts (e.g., decreased activity, buried powerlines). The post-mitigation habitat selection models indicated less avoidance of wells (well density beta = 0.18 plus or minus 0.08) than the pre-mitigation models (well density beta = -0.09 plus or minus 0.11). However, birds still avoided areas of high well density and nests were not found in areas with greater than 4 wells per km2 and the majority of nests (63%) were located in areas with less than or equal to 1 well per km2. Several other model coefficients differed between the two time periods and indicated stronger selection for sagebrush (pre-mitigation beta = 0.30 plus or minus 0.09; post-mitigation beta = 0.82 plus or minus 0.08) and less avoidance of rugged terrain (pre-mitigation beta = -0.35 plus or minus 0.12; post-mitigation beta = -0.05 plus or minus 0.09). Mitigation efforts implemented may be responsible for the measurable improvement in sage-grouse nesting habitats within the development area. However, we cannot reject alternative hypotheses concerning the influence of population density and intraspecific competition. Additionally, we were unable to assess the actual fitness consequences of mitigation or the source-sink dynamics of the habitats. We compared the pre-mitigation and post-mitigation models predicted as maps with habitats ranked from low to high relative probability of use (equal-area bins: 1 - 5). We found more improvement in habitat rank between the two time periods around mitigated wells compared to non-mitigated wells. Informed mitigation within energy development fields could help improve habitats within the field. We recommend that any mitigation effort include well-informed plans to monitor the effectiveness of the implemented mitigation actions that assess both habitat use and relevant fitness parameters.

The Great Basin of the western USA is an arid region characterized by high spatial and temporal variability. The region experienced high levels of ecological disturbance during the early period of Euro-American settlement, especially from about 1870–1935. The principal plant communities of the Great Basin are sagebrush steppes, dominated by various Artemisia shrubs and perennial bunchgrasses that represent the largest rangeland ecosystem in North America. In low to mid-elevation sagebrush communities, exotic annual grasses have displaced native plant species and are associated with a dramatic increase in size and frequency of wildfires. Degradation in this region is driven by processes that cause the loss of mature bunchgrasses, which, when intact, limit exotic annual grass invasion. Historically, large economic investments to restore degraded Great Basin rangeland through establishment of native bunchgrasses, principally utilizing heavily mechanized agronomic approaches, have been met with limited success. A multitude of environmental factors contribute to the lack of restoration success in this region, but seedling mortality from freezing and drought has been identified as a primary demographic limitation to successful bunchgrass establishment. Novel approaches to overcoming limitations to bunchgrass establishment will be required for restoration success. Increased national concern and a near listing of the greater sage-grouse, a steppe-obligate species, to Endangered Species status, has spurred greater regional support and collaboration across a diversity of stakeholder groups such as state and federal land and wildlife management agencies, county planners, and ranchers.

Despite decades of field research on greater sage-grouse, range-wide demographic data have yet to be synthesized into a sensitivity analysis to guide management actions. We reviewed range-wide demographic rates for greater sage-grouse from 1938 to 2011 and used data from 50 studies to parameterize a 2-stage, female-based population matrix model. We conducted life-stage simulation analyses to determine the proportion of variation in population growth rate (λ) accounted for by each vital rate, and we calculated analytical sensitivity, elasticity, and variance-stabilized sensitivity to identify the contribution of each vital rate to λ. As expected for an upland game bird, greater sage-grouse showed marked annual and geographic variation in several vital rates. Three rates were demonstrably important for population growth: female survival, chick survival, and nest success. Female survival and chick survival, in that order, had the most influence on λ per unit change in vital rates. However, nest success explained more of the variation in λ than did the survival rates. In lieu of quantitative data on specific mortality factors driving local populations, we recommend that management efforts for greater sage-grouse first focus on increasing female survival by restoring large, intact sagebrush-steppe landscapes, reducing persistent sources of human-caused mortality, and eliminating anthropogenic habitat features that subsidize species that prey on juvenile, yearling, and adult females. Our analysis also supports efforts to increase chick survival and nest success by eliminating anthropogenic habitat features that subsidize chick and nest predators, and by managing shrub, forb, and grass cover, height, and composition to meet local brood-rearing and nesting habitat guidelines. We caution that habitat management to increase chick survival and nest success should not reduce the cover or height of sagebrush below that required for female survival in other seasons (e.g., fall, winter). The success or failure of management actions for sage-grouse should be assessed by measuring changes in vital rates over long time periods to avoid confounding with natural, annual variation.

In the Great Basin, coniferous trees are expanding their range at a rate higher than any other time during the Holocene. Approximately 90% of the expansion has occurred in ecosystems previously dominated by sagebrush (Artemisia spp.). Transitions from open, sagebrush steppe to woodlands are considered a threat to the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), a sagebrush obligate gallinaceous bird that occupies approximately 56% of its pre-European settlement distribution. Using a telemetry data set from 2010–2017 breeding seasons for a treatment area with conifer removal and an experimental control area, we assessed the efficacy of conifer removal for increasing usable space and determined relative probability of use of a landscape previously impacted by conifer expansion. Sage-grouse increasingly selected areas closer to conifer removals and were 26% more likely to use removal areas each year after removal. Sage-grouse were most likely to select areas where conifer cover had been reduced by ≤10%. The proportion of available locations having a high relative probability of use increased from 5% to 31% between 2011 and 2017 in the treatment area and locations with the lowest relative probability of use decreased from 57% to 21% over the same period. Dynamics in relative probability of use at available locations in the control area were stochastic or stable and did not demonstrate clear temporal trends relative to the treatment area. Targeted conifer removal is an effective tool for increasing usable space for sage-grouse during the breeding season and for restoring landscapes affected by conifer expansion.

Wildfire events are becoming more frequent and severe on a global scale. Rising temperatures, prolonged drought, and the presence of pyrophytic invasive grasses are contributing to the degradation of native vegetation communities. Within the Great Basin region of the western U.S., increasing wildfire frequency is transforming the ecosystem toward a higher degree of homogeneity, one dominated by invasive annual grasses and declining landscape productivity. Greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; hereafter sage-grouse) are a species of conservation concern that rely on large tracts of structurally and functionally diverse sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) communities. Using a 12-year (2008–2019) telemetry dataset, we documented immediate impacts of wildfire on demographic rates of a population of sage-grouse that were exposed to two large wildfire events (Virginia Mountains Fire Complex—2016; Long Valley Fire—2017) near the border of California and Nevada. Spatiotemporal heterogeneity in demographic rates were accounted for using a Before-After Control-Impact Paired Series (BACIPS) study design. Results revealed a 40% reduction in adult survival and a 79% reduction in nest survival within areas impacted by wildfires. Our results indicate that wildfire has strong and immediate impacts to two key life stages of a sagebrush indicator species and underscores the importance of fire suppression and immediate restoration following wildfire events.

Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) have been subject to long-term and continuing declines in population and habitat since European settlement of western North America. Increased wildfire activity constitutes a primary threat to the species in western portions of their range, with documented declines in wildfire-affected populations. Following a 187,000-ha wildfire in southeastern Oregon and northern Nevada, USA, we used global positioning system (GPS) telemetry to monitor nest initiation, nest survival, nesting habitat, and adult survival of female sage-grouse during 2013 and 2014. We used known-fate models in Program MARK to estimate daily nest survival and monthly adult survival in relation to temporal patterns, physiological characteristics of females, and habitat and land-cover characteristics. We assessed habitat characteristics using geographic information system (GIS)-derived measures of post-fire habitat condition and land cover. Nest initiation rate following the fire was comparable to that observed in unaltered habitat. We observed nesting rates of 90% and 100% during 2013 and 2014, respectively, and renesting rates of 23% and 57% during the same years. Daily nest survival was consistently low in comparison to rates observed in concurrent studies in the region, for first nests during both years, and for second nests during 2013, but survival markedly increased for second nests during 2014. Sage-grouse generally did not leave the fire perimeter to nest, with 64% and 73% of nests located in the fire boundary during 2013 and 2014, respectively. Approximately 27% of nests were located in burned habitat during 2013, and 20% of nests in 2014 were located in burned habitat. Adult survival varied by month, and although patterns of monthly survival were similar between years, monthly survival rates were significantly reduced from the beginning of the study through the end of the first post-fire growing season. Our results indicate that sage-grouse continue to use fire-affected habitat in the years immediately following wildfire and sage-grouse experienced lower nest survival and adult female survival than other populations during the same period.