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"Certainty"
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Updating false beliefs: The role of misplaced vs. well-placed certainty
People can update their misconceptions or false beliefs by learning from corrective sources. However, research has shown that people vary drastically in the extent to which they learn from feedback and update their false beliefs accordingly. That past work drew attention to cognitive and motivational factors such as cognitive rigidity and closed-mindedness as inhibitors of belief updating. Here we examined a novel epistemic structure, misplaced certainty, a subjective sense of certainty while recognizing uncertainty in oneself or most people (e.g., I feel certain although I recognize X is technically uncertain or it is technically uncertain according to most people), as a unique predictor of lower belief updating. In a preregistered study, we hypothesized that those with high chronic misplaced certainty would be less likely to learn from feedback and revise their misconceptions in a feedback-learning task. In our analyses, we controlled for well-placed certainty—certainty while recognizing no doubt in oneself or most others. We also controlled for variables associated with closed-minded cognition. Consistent with our predictions, those with high misplaced certainty were less likely to revise their false beliefs in response to corrective feedback. In contrast, those with high well-placed certainty were more likely to learn from corrective feedback and revise their false beliefs. By shedding light on the nuances of different forms of subjective certainty, the present work aims to pave the way for further research on epistemic factors in the perseverance and correction of false beliefs.
Journal Article
ON THE EMPIRICAL VALIDITY OF CUMULATIVE PROSPECT THEORY
Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT), the leading behavioral account of decisionmaking under uncertainty, avoids the dominance violations implicit in Prospect Theory (PT) by assuming that the probability weight applied to a given outcome depends on its ranking. We devise a simple and direct nonparametric method for measuring the change in relative probability weights resulting from a change in payoff ranks. We find no evidence that these weights are even modestly sensitive to ranks. Conventional calibrations of CPT preferences imply that the percentage change in probability weights should be an order of magnitude larger than we observe. It follows either that probability weighting is not rank-dependent, or that the weighting function is nearly linear. Nonparametric measurement of the change in relative probability weights resulting from changes in probabilities rules out the second possibility. Additional tests nevertheless indicate that the dominance patterns predicted by PT do not arise. We reconcile these findings by positing a form of complexity aversion that generalizes the well-known certainty effect.
Journal Article
Feature Selection of Time Series MODIS Data for Early Crop Classification Using Random Forest: A Case Study in Kansas, USA
Currently, accurate information on crop area coverage is vital for food security and industry, and there is strong demand for timely crop mapping. In this study, we used MODIS time series data to investigate the effect of the time series length on crop mapping. Eight time series with different lengths (ranging from one month to eight months) were tested. For each time series, we first used the Random Forest (RF) algorithm to calculate the importance score for all features (including multi-spectral data, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), and phenological metrics). Subsequently, an extension of the Jeffries–Matusita (JM) distance was used to measure class separability for each time series. Finally, the RF algorithm was used to classify crop types, and the classification accuracy and certainty were used to analyze the influence of the time series length and the number of features on classification performance; the features were added one by one based on their importance scores. Results indicated that when the time series was longer than five months, the top ten features remained stable. These features were mainly in July and August. In addition, the NDVI features contributed the majority of the most significant features for crop mapping. The NDWI and data from multi-spectral bands also contributed to improving crop mapping. On the other hand, separability, classification accuracy, and certainty increased with the number of features used and the time series length, although these values quickly reached saturation. Five months was the optimal time series length, as longer time series provided no further improvement in the classification performance. This result shows that relatively short time series have the potential to identify crops accurately, which allows for early crop mapping over large areas.
Journal Article
The Economy of Certainty : An Introduction to the Typology of Islamic Legal Theory
\"Aron Zysow's 1984 PhD dissertation, \"The Economy of Certainty,\" remains the most important, compelling, and intellectually ambitious treatment of Islamic legal theory (usul al-fiqh) in Western scholarship to date. It continues to be widely read and cited, and remains unsurpassed in its incisive analysis of the fundamental assumptions of Islamic legal thought. Zysow's important work is published here in full, for the first time, with updated references, a Preface by Professor Robert Gleave and further reflections by the author. Zysow argues that the great dividing line in Islamic legal thought is between those legal theories that require certainty in every detail of the law and those that will admit probability. The latter were historically dominant and include the leading legal schools that have survived to our own day. Zahirism and, for much of its history, Twelver Shi'ism, are examples of the former. The well-known dispute regarding the legitimacy of juridical analogy is only one feature of this fundamental epistemological division, since probability can enter the law in the process of authenticating prophetic traditions and in the interpretation of the revealed texts, as well as through analogy. The notion of consensus in Islamic legal theory functioned to reintroduce some measure of certainty into the law by identifying one of the competing probable solutions as correct. Consequently, consensus has only a reduced role in those systems that reject probability. Another, more radical, means of regaining certainty was the doctrine that regarded the legal reasoning of all qualified jurists on matters of probability as infallible. The development of legal theories of both types was to a large extent shaped by theology and, most significantly, by Mu'tazilism, and subsequently by Ash'arism and Maturidism.\" -- from publisher.
Book
GRADE Guidance: 31. Assessing the certainty across a body of evidence for comparative test accuracy
This article provides GRADE guidance on how authors of evidence syntheses and health decision makers, including guideline developers, can rate the certainty across a body of evidence for comparative test accuracy questions.
This guidance extends the previously published GRADE guidance for assessing certainty of evidence for test accuracy to scenarios in which two or more index tests are compared. Through an iterative brainstorm-discussion-feedback process within the GRADE working group, we developed a guidance accompanied by practical examples.
Rating the certainty of evidence for comparative test accuracy shares many concepts and ideas with the existing GRADE guidance for test accuracy. The rating in comparisons of test accuracy requires additional considerations, such as the selection of appropriate comparative study designs, additional criteria for judging risk of bias, and the consequences of using comparative measures of test accuracy. Distinct approaches to rating certainty are required for comparative test accuracy studies and between-study (indirect) comparisons.
This GRADE guidance will support transparent assessment of the certainty for a body of comparative test accuracy evidence.
Journal Article
Doubt in Islamic law : a history of legal maxims, interpretation, and Islamic criminal law
\"This book considers an important and largely neglected area of Islamic law by exploring how medieval Muslim jurists resolved criminal cases that could not be proven beyond a doubt, calling into question a controversial popular notion about Islamic law today, which is that Islamic law is a divine legal tradition that has little room for discretion or doubt, particularly in Islamic criminal law. Despite its contemporary popularity, that notion turns out to have been far outside the mainstream of Islamic law for most of its history. Instead of rejecting doubt, medieval Muslim scholars largely embraced it. In fact, they used doubt to enlarge their own power and to construct Islamic criminal law itself. Through examination of legal, historical, and theological sources, and a range of illustrative case studies, this book shows that Muslim jurists developed a highly sophisticated and regulated system for dealing with Islam's unique concept of doubt, which evolved from the seventh to the sixteenth century\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
GRADE guidelines 32: GRADE offers guidance on choosing targets of GRADE certainty of evidence ratings
To provide practical principles and examples to help GRADE users make optimal choices regarding their ratings of certainty of evidence using a minimally or partially contextualized approach.
Based on the GRADE clarification of certainty of evidence in 2017, a project group within the GRADE Working Group conducted iterative discussions and presentations at GRADE Working Group meetings to refine this construct and produce practical guidance.
Systematic review and health technology assessment authors need to clarify what it is in which they are rating their certainty of evidence (i.e., the target of their certainty rating). The decision depends on the degree of contextualization (partially or minimally contextualized), thresholds (null, small, moderate or large effect threshold), and where the point estimate lies in relation to the chosen threshold(s). When the 95% confidence interval crosses multiple possible thresholds (i.e., including both large benefit and large harm), it is not worthwhile for authors to determine the target of certainty rating.
GRADE provides practical principles to help systematic review and health technology assessment authors specify the target of their certainty of evidence rating.
Journal Article