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Chance in the world : a Humean guide to objective chance
Whether something happens randomly, by chance; or from a series of events.
Book
\The Spectre of Uncertainty\: Chance in Bellamy's Utopian Fictions
Edward Bellamy's utopian novels Looking Backward (1888) and Equality (1897) imagine a new society of equality, justice, and a life of plenty, where no one has to fear for the security and wellbeing of their own or future generations. In Bellamy's Utopian future, the \"spectre of Uncertainty,\" which had been a permanent threat to the lives of people in the late nineteenth century, is presented as having disappeared. And yet, for all of its emphasis on security, Bellamy's Utopian vision in fact does not exclude chance, risk, or accident. Placing statistics at the center of his Utopian economy, Bellamy imagines a society that is based on probability rather than certainty. Bellamy's industrial workforce of the utopian future is modeled on the ideal of the army, which he envisions as both a rational organization and an organization predicated on risk. Meanwhile, the possibility of accident not only plays a considerable role in the smooth workings of the utopian system but is also the very precondition for the transportation of the novel's protagonist, Julian West, into the future of the year 2000. Thus, in both Looking Backward and Equality, the unpredictable event, the error, and the accident have to be possible for utopia to exist.
Journal Article
Coming to Terms with Chance
The application of probability and statistics to an ever-widening number of life-decisions serves to reproduce, reinforce, and widen disparities in the quality of life that different groups of people can enjoy. As a critical technology assessment, the ways in which bad luck early in life increase the probability that hardship and loss will accumulate across the life course are illustrated. Analysis shows the ways in which individual decisions, informed by statistical models, shape the opportunities people face in both market and non-market environments. Ultimately, this book challenges the actuarial logic and instrumental rationalism that drives public policy and emphasizes the role that the mass media play in justifying its expanded use. Although its arguments and examples take as their primary emphasis the ways in which these decision systems affect the life chances of African-Americans, the findings are also applicable to a broad range of groups burdened by discrimination.
eBook
What is Hiding in Ertel's Tree?
Solid data. An interested journalist. And good luck. I have spent most of my career as a journalist covering the claims of maverick scientists. How this came about, what \"rule\" I had to follow in order to get published, and what a scientist needs to best present their maverick claim are the subject of this presentation. I will largely focus on one \"case study,\" where I had a chance to see what happens behind the scenes of a maverick claim's struggle for acceptance. And how I ended up unintentionally being the claim's last remaining advocate.
Journal Article