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Purpose To observe long-term prognosis of anterior segment ischemia (ASI) following hyaluronic acid (HA) injection, propose a severity grading system for ASI and a predictive model for phthisis bulbi (PB) based on long-term secretion dysfunction of ciliary process. Methods This is a retrospective case–control study. All enrolled 20 patients were divided into two groups and followed for at least 6 months to observe the formation and transformation characteristics of ASI and long-term prognosis based on the degrees of ciliary function damage. Results The severity of ASI following HA injection could be subdivided into 4 grades according to the degrees of ciliary function damage, comprising ASI grades 0, 1, 2 and 3. In 20 patients, ophthalmoplegia at 1-month follow-up, ASI within 1 month, ASI at 1-month follow-up, hypotony within 6 months were all significantly more common in study group than in control group (60% vs. 0%, P  = 0.011; 100% vs. 20%, P  = 0.001; 100% vs. 0%, P  < 0.001; 80% vs. 0%, P  = 0.001, respectively). Sensitivity, specificity and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for predicting subsequent PB at 2-year follow-up through the co-occurrence of ophthalmoplegia at 1-month follow-up and hypotony within 6 months was 100%, 100% and 1.00, respectively. Conclusions The new grading system for ASI and novel predictive model for PB we proposed could predict the long-term prognosis and probability of subsequent PB due to ASI following HA injection through several dynamic assessments within 6 months. Level of Evidence Level IV, observational prognostic study.