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Climate science
This Element explores climate scientists' methods and inferences on global warming, utilizing the philosophy of science resources. It contributes to philosophical discussions on data modelling, measurement, robustness analysis, explanation, and model evaluation.
BOOK
Climate simulations: recognize the ‘hot model’ problem
The sixth and latest IPCC assessment weights climate models according to how well they reproduce other evidence. Now the rest of the community should do the same.
The sixth and latest IPCC assessment weights climate models according to how well they reproduce other evidence. Now the rest of the community should do the same.
Journal Article
The end of Eden : wild nature in the age of climate breakdown
\"A revelatory exploration of climate change from the perspective of wild species and natural ecosystems--an homage to the miraculous, vibrant entity that is life on Earth. Your key word here is Sustainable Living right out of the World Economic Forum. \"
Book
Climate change attribution and legal contexts: evidence and the role of storylines
In a recent very influential court case,
Juliana v. United States
, climate scientist Kevin Trenberth used the “storyline” approach to extreme event attribution to argue that greenhouse warming had affected and will affect extreme events in their regions to such an extent that the plaintiffs already had been or will be harmed. The storyline approach to attribution is deterministic rather than probabilistic, taking certain factors as contingent and assessing the role of climate change conditional on those factors. The US Government’s opposing expert witness argued that Trenberth had failed to make his case because “all his conclusions of the injuries to Plaintiffs suffer from the same failure to connect his conditional approach to Plaintiffs’ local circumstances.” The issue is whether it is possible to make statements about individual events based on general knowledge. A similar question is sometimes debated within the climate science community. We argue here that proceeding from the general to the specific is a process of deduction and is an entirely legitimate form of scientific reasoning. We further argue that it is well aligned with the concept of legal evidence, much more so than the more usual inductive form of scientific reasoning, which proceeds from the specific to the general. This has implications for how attribution science can be used to support climate change litigation.
“The question is”, said Alice, “whether you can make words mean different things.” “The question is”, said Humpty Dumpty, “which is to be master — that’s all.” (Lewis Carroll, Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland).
Journal Article
Dryland climatology
\"A comprehensive review of dryland climates and their relationship to the physical environment, hydrology, and inhabitants. Chapters are divided into four major sections on background meteorology and climatology; the nature of dryland climates in relation to precipitation and hydrology; the climatology and climate dynamics of the major dryland regions on each continent; and an extensive review of long-term climate variability in the world's drylands. It includes key topics such as vegetation, geomorphology, desertification, micro-habitats, and adaptation to dryland environments. This interdisciplinary volume provides an extensive review of the primary literature (covering over 2500 references) and the conventional and satellite datasets that form key research tools for dryland climatology. Illustrated with over 100 photographs, it presents a unique view of dryland climates for a broad spectrum of researchers, environmental professionals and advanced students in climatology, meteorology, geography, environment science, earth system science, ecology, hydrology and geomorphology\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
Meaningful climate science
Within the climate science community, useable climate science has been understood as quantitative, usually as a best estimate together with a quantified uncertainty. Physical scientists are trained to produce numbers and to draw general, abstract conclusions. In general, however, people relate much better to stories and to events they have experienced, which are inevitably contingent and particular. Sheila Jasanoff has argued elsewhere that the process of abstraction in climate science “detaches knowledge from meaning”. Perhaps useable climate science is, then,
meaningful
climate science. We argue here that the development of meaningful climate science can be achieved by adopting a storyline approach to climate variability and change. By ‘storyline’ we mean a physically self-consistent unfolding of past events or of plausible future events or pathways. Storylines represent a combination of qualitative and quantitative information, where the qualitative element represents a packaging or contextualization of the quantitative aspects, which ensures that data can be meaningfully interpreted. Viewed from this perspective, we show that physical climate storylines can be aligned with several well-established vehicles for translation of knowledge between diverse communities: narratives, boundary objects, and data journeys. They can therefore be used as a ‘pidgin language’ to enrich the set of tools available to climate scientists to bring meaning to climate knowledge.
“And what is the use of a book”, thought Alice, “without pictures or conversations?” (Lewis Carroll, Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland).
Journal Article
Cheaper, faster, better : how we'll win the climate war
The climate is changing more rapidly than scientists predicted even a few years ago, with extreme weather already touching our everyday lives. At the same time, the clean energy revolution is forging ahead faster than nearly anyone anticipated. As Tom Steyer sees it, these two trends together create a moment like the one America faced during World War II: on the one hand, an existential threat calling for collective action; on the other, an opportunity to lead the world, protect the planet, and set the stage for a new generation of shared economic prosperity. In 2012, Steyer walked away from the highly successful investment fund he founded to devote himself full time to climate issues, and he's been on the front lines of the fight ever since: funding cleantech research and businesses, spearheading clean-energy ballot measures and voter registration drives, and running for president on a climate platform. Today, he leads a climate investment firm focused on accelerating climate solutions. In this accessible book, Steyer shares his own story and showcases the inspiring and innovative work of other climate leaders in the clean-energy transition. He shows us how capitalism can be used to scale climate progress, debunks many of the arguments made by fossil fuel companies, and calls on all of us to make stabilizing our planet part of our life's work. As green technology is fast becoming cleaner and cheaper, reshaping our planet's future--and our own--has never been more crucial or within our reach.
Book
Can Science-Based Targets Make the Private Sector Paris-Aligned? A Review of the Emerging Evidence
Purpose of Review
Companies increasingly set science-based targets (SBTs) for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. We review literature on SBTs to understand their potential for aligning corporate emissions with the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement.
Recent Findings
SBT adoption by larger, more visible companies in high-income countries has accelerated. These companies tend to have a good prior reputation for managing climate impacts and most appear on track for meeting their scope 1 and 2 SBTs. More research is needed to distinguish between substantive and symbolic target-setting and understand how companies plan to achieve established SBTs. There is no consensus on whether current target-setting methods appropriately allocate emissions to individual companies or how much freedom companies should have in setting SBTs. Current emission accounting practices, target-setting methods, SBT governance, and insufficient transparency may allow companies to report some emission reductions that are not real and may result in insufficient collective emission reductions. Lower rates of SBT diffusion in low- and middle-income countries, in certain emission-intensive sectors, and by small- and medium-sized enterprises pose potential barriers for mainstreaming SBTs. While voluntary SBTs cannot substitute for more ambitious climate policy, it is unclear whether they delay or encourage policy needed for Paris alignment.
Summary
We find evidence that SBT adoption corresponds to increased climate action. However, there is a need for further research from a diversity of approaches to better understand how SBTs may facilitate or hinder a just transition to low-carbon societies.
Journal Article
Climate variability and tropical cyclone activity
\"Tropical climate has received increased attention over the last 40 years mainly because of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and their associated impacts on a local, regional, and global scale. While the MJO is the most prominent disturbance that operates on the subseasonal time scale (less than 90 days but longer than 10 days), the ENSO is a powerful interplay between the tropical ocean and atmosphere on interannual time scales with a preferred recurrence interval of 2-7 years. Studies show that MJO and ENSO can have a profound effect on global weather systems, such as shifting tropical cyclone (TC) formation location, altering frequency of occurrence, storm tracks, landfall locations, intensity, and lifespan in various ocean basins. There are at least two types of El Niño: the Eastern Pacific and Central Pacific types, which modulate regional TC activity in a different manner. In addition to ENSO, other climate modes that also influence TC activity on the interannual time scale include the North Atlantic Oscillation, Pacific Meridional Mode, and Atlantic Meridional Mode. On a longer time scale, TC activity is modulated by the decadal to interdecadal oscillations in the Atlantic and Pacific. Aside from TCs, the aforementioned climate modes also alter precipitation and temperatures variations, resulting in drought, flooding, extreme cold or warm conditions, and public health issues in many parts of the world. TC attributes are projected to change over the next 50-100 years under an anthropogenic warming scenario, although uncertainty remains\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
Usable climate science is adaptation science
The author argues that in the present historical moment, the only climate science that is truly usable is that which is oriented towards adaptation, because current policies and politics are so far from what would be needed to avert dangerous climate change that scientific uncertainty is not a limiting factor on mitigation. The author considers what implications this might have for climate science and climate scientists.
Journal Article