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Mitigation pathways exploring end-of-century temperature targets often entail temperature overshoot. Little is known about the additional climate risks generated by overshooting temperature. Here we assessed the benefits of limiting overshoot. We computed the probabilistic impacts for different warming targets and overshoot levels on the basis of an ensemble of integrated assessment models. We explored both physical and macroeconomic impacts, including persistent and non-persistent climate impacts. We found that temperature overshooting affects the likelihood of many critical physical impacts, such as those associated with heat extremes. Limiting overshoot reduces risk in the right tail of the distribution, in particular for low-temperature targets where larger overshoots arise as a way to lower short-term mitigation costs. We also showed how, after mid-century, overshoot leads to both higher mitigation costs and economic losses from the additional impacts. The study highlights the need to include climate risk analysis in low-carbon pathways.Mitigation pathways allowing for temperature overshoot often ignore the related climate and macroeconomic impacts. Net-zero pathways with limited overshoot could reduce low-probability high-consequence risks and economic loss.

\"Water scarcity is the next big climate crisis. Water stress - not just scarcity, but also water-quality issues caused by pollution - is already driving the first waves of climate refugees. Rivers are drying out before they meet the oceans, and ancient lakes are disappearing. Fourteen of the world's twenty megacities are now experiencing water scarcity or drought conditions. It's increasingly clear that human mismanagement of water is dangerously unsustainable, for both ecological and human survival. And yet in recent years some key countries have been quietly and very successfully addressing water stress. How are Singapore and Israel, for example - both severely water-stressed countries - not in the same predicament as Chennai or California, but now boast surplus water? What can we learn from them and how can we use this knowledge to turn things around for the wider global community? Do we have to stop eating almonds and asparagus grown in the deserts of California and Peru? Could desalination of seawater be the answer? Or rainwater capture? Are some of the wilder 'solutions' - such as the plan to tow icebergs to Cape Town - pure madness, or necessary innovation? Award-winning environmental journalist Tim Smedley will travel the world to meet the experts, the victims, the activists and pioneers, to find out how we can mend the water table that our survival depends upon. His book will take an unblinking look at the current situation and how we got there. And then look to the solutions. The Last Drop promises to offer a fascinating, universally relevant account of the environmental and human factors that have led us to this point, and suggests practical ways in which we might address the crisis, before it's too late\"--Publisher's description.

Understanding climate-driven impacts on the multivariate global wind-wave climate is paramount to effective offshore/coastal climate adaptation planning. However, the use of single-method ensembles and variations arising from different methodologies has resulted in unquantified uncertainty amongst existing global wave climate projections. Here, assessing the first coherent, community-driven, multi-method ensemble of global wave climate projections, we demonstrate widespread ocean regions with robust changes in annual mean significant wave height and mean wave period of 5–15% and shifts in mean wave direction of 5–15°, under a high-emission scenario. Approximately 50% of the world’s coastline is at risk from wave climate change, with ~40% revealing robust changes in at least two variables. Furthermore, we find that uncertainty in current projections is dominated by climate model-driven uncertainty, and that single-method modelling studies are unable to capture up to ~50% of the total associated uncertainty.

Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are expected to modify the global water cycle with significant consequences for terrestrial hydrology. We assess the impact of climate change on hydrological droughts in a multimodel experiment including seven global impact models (GIMs) driven by bias-corrected climate from five global climate models under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Drought severity is defined as the fraction of land under drought conditions. Results show a likely increase in the global severity of hydrological drought at the end of the 21st century, with systematically greater increases for RCPs describing stronger radiative forcings. Under RCP8.5, droughts exceeding 40% of analyzed land area are projected by nearly half of the simulations. This increase in drought severity has a strong signal-to-noise ratio at the global scale, and Southern Europe, the Middle East, the Southeast United States, Chile, and South West Australia are identified as possible hotspots for future water security issues. The uncertainty due to GIMs is greater than that from global climate models, particularly if including a GIM that accounts for the dynamic response of plants to CO ₂ and climate, as this model simulates little or no increase in drought frequency. Our study demonstrates that different representations of terrestrial water-cycle processes in GIMs are responsible for a much larger uncertainty in the response of hydrological drought to climate change than previously thought. When assessing the impact of climate change on hydrology, it is therefore critical to consider a diverse range of GIMs to better capture the uncertainty.

Global warming is shifting the thermal dynamics of lakes, with resulting climatic variability heavily affecting their mixing dynamics. We present a dual ensemble workflow coupling climate models with lake models. We used a large set of simulations across multiple domains, multi‐scenario, and multi GCM‐ RCM combinations from CORDEX data. We forced a set of multiple hydrodynamic lake models by these multiple climate simulations to explore climate change impacts on lakes. We also quantified the contributions from the different models to the overall uncertainty. We employed this workflow to investigate the effects of climate change on Lake Sevan (Armenia). We predicted for the end of the 21st century, under RCP 8.5, a sharp increase in surface temperature (4.3±0.7K)$(4.3\\pm 0.7\\,\\mathrm{K})$and substantial bottom warming (1.7±0.7K)$(1.7\\pm 0.7\\,\\mathrm{K})$ , longer stratification periods (+55 days) and disappearance of ice cover leading to a shift in mixing regime. Increased insufficient cooling during warmer winters points to the vulnerability of Lake Sevan to climate change. Our workflow leverages the strengths of multiple models at several levels of the model chain to provide a more robust projection and at the same time a better uncertainty estimate that accounts for the contributions of the different model levels to overall uncertainty. Although for specific variables, for example, summer bottom temperature, single lake models may perform better, the full ensemble provides a robust estimate of thermal dynamics that has a high transferability so that our workflow can be a blueprint for climate impact studies in other systems. Plain Language Summary Lakes are threatened by climate change because of effects related to the increasing temperature, long stratification, and ice disappearance. One of the best tools to predict these effects on lakes is numerical modeling of lakes that benefit from climate modeling. Climate modeling is normally done globally or in the so‐called general circulation model (GCM) or more detailed simulations on regional levels (RCM) like the CORDEX data set. In this study, we used the CORDEX data, which employed several climate models from several regions (domains) for several climatic scenarios (emissions scenarios) to force multiple lake models. This approach gave us an extensive prediction about various possible outputs. We applied this approach to Lake Sevan (Armenia), a large mountain lake. Our study predicted for the worst‐case scenario, an increase of the surface temperature by almost 4.3 K by the end of the 21st century, 1.75 K for bottom temperature, a total disappearance of ice cover, and about 55 extra days of stratification, showing its vulnerability for climate change. This optimized workflow uses the strength of a wide variety of models on the climate and lake levels to better understand the impact of climate change and quantify the sources of uncertainty in the workflow. Key Points Dual multi‐model ensemble of climate data and lake models is used for robust projections of climate change impacts Variance decomposition effectively identified the sources of uncertainty and contributions of different models to the overall uncertainty Significant warming, longer stratification periods, and loss of ice cover are predicted for Lake Sevan by the end of the 21st century

Extremely high temperatures pose an immediate threat to humans and ecosystems. In recent years, many regions on land and in the ocean experienced heat waves with devastating impacts that would have been highly unlikely without human‐induced climate change. Impacts are particularly severe when heat waves occur in regions with high exposure of people or crops. The recent 2018 spring‐to‐summer season was characterized by several major heat and dry extremes. On daily average between May and July 2018 about 22% of the populated and agricultural areas north of 30° latitude experienced concurrent hot temperature extremes. Events of this type were unprecedented prior to 2010, while similar conditions were experienced in the 2010 and 2012 boreal summers. Earth System Model simulations of present‐day climate, that is, at around +1 °C global warming, also display an increase of concurrent heat extremes. Based on Earth System Model simulations, we show that it is virtually certain (using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change calibrated uncertainty language) that the 2018 north hemispheric concurrent heat events would not have occurred without human‐induced climate change. Our results further reveal that the average high‐exposure area projected to experience concurrent warm and hot spells in the Northern Hemisphere increases by about 16% per additional +1 °C of global warming. A strong reduction in fossil fuel emissions is paramount to reduce the risks of unprecedented global‐scale heat wave impacts. Key Points Twenty‐two percent of populated and agricultural areas of the Northern Hemisphere concurrently experienced hot extremes between May and July 2018 It is virtually certain that these 2018 northhemispheric concurrent heat events could not have occurred without human‐induced climate change We would experience a GCWH18‐like event nearly 2 out of 3 years at +1.5 °C and every year at +2 °C global warming

Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies.

The climate science and applications communities need a broad and demand‐driven concept to assess physical climate conditions that are relevant for impacts on human and natural systems. Here, we augment the description of the “climatic impact‐driver” (CID) approach adopted in the Working Group I (WGI) contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report. CIDs are broadly defined as “physical climate system conditions (e.g., means, events, and extremes) that affect an element of society or ecosystems. Depending on system tolerance, CIDs and their changes can be detrimental, beneficial, neutral, or a mixture of each across interacting system elements and regions.” We give background information on the IPCC Report process that led to the development of the 7 CID types (heat and cold, wet and dry, wind, snow and ice, coastal, open ocean, and other) and 33 distinct CID categories, each of which may be evaluated using a variety of CID indices. This inventory of CIDs was co‐developed with WGII to provide a useful collaboration point between physical climate scientists and impacts/risk experts to assess the specific climatic phenomena driving sectoral responses and identify relevant CID indices within each sector. The CID Framework ensures that a comprehensive set of climatic conditions informs adaptation planning and risk management and may also help prioritize improvements in modeling sectoral dynamics that depend on climatic conditions. CIDs contribute to climate services by increasing coherence and neutrality when identifying and communicating relevant findings from physical climate research to risk assessment and planning activities. Plain Language Summary Climatic impact‐drivers (CIDs) are climate conditions that affect the things we care about in nature and society. We deepen the motivation and definitions that allowed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to identify 33 distinct CID categories including extreme heat, hydrological drought, severe wind storm, permafrost, relative sea level, marine heatwaves, and air pollution weather. Each CID category may be analyzed with specific indices that inform adaptation, mitigation and risk management. The CID Framework allows us to avoid universally labeling a climate condition as a “hazard,” recognizing that the same physical condition may be detrimental for some and beneficial or inconsequential for others. This approach allows climate scientists to engage with impacts and risk experts to target specific tolerance thresholds that are system‐ and sector‐dependent. This more comprehensive description of the CID Framework provides a practical foundation for climate research, climate and impact model development, risk assessments and climate service product creation. Key Points Deepens explanation of Climatic Impact‐Driver (CID) Framework utilized in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Reports Distinguishes practical CID types and categories that allows climate information to target conditions that affect the things we care about Neutral Framework does not pre‐judge beneficial, detrimental or neutral outcomes which are system‐ and sector‐dependent

Saltwater intrusion is a critical concern for coastal communities due to its impacts on fresh ecosystems and civil infrastructure. Declining recharge and rising sea level are the two dominant drivers of saltwater intrusion along the land‐ocean continuum, but there are currently no global estimates of future saltwater intrusion that synthesize these two spatially variable processes. Here, for the first time, we provide a novel assessment of global saltwater intrusion risk by integrating future recharge and sea level rise while considering the unique geology and topography of coastal regions. We show that nearly 77% of global coastal areas below 60° north will undergo saltwater intrusion by 2100, with different dominant drivers. Climate‐driven changes in subsurface water replenishment (recharge) is responsible for the high‐magnitude cases of saltwater intrusion, whereas sea level rise and coastline migration are responsible for the global pervasiveness of saltwater intrusion and have a greater effect on low‐lying areas. Plain Language Summary Coastal watersheds around the globe are facing perilous changes to their freshwater systems. Driven by climatic changes in recharge and sea level working in tandem, sea water encroaches into coastal groundwater aquifers and consequently salinizes fresh groundwater, in a process called saltwater intrusion. To assess the vulnerability of coastal watersheds to future saltwater intrusion, we applied projections of sea level and groundwater recharge to a global analytical modeling framework. Nearly 77% of the global coast is expected to undergo measurable salinization by the year 2100. Changes in recharge have a greater effect on the magnitude of salinization, whereas sea level rise drives the widespread extensiveness of salinization around the global coast. Our results highlight the variable pressures of climate change on coastal regions and have implications for prioritizing management solutions. Key Points First global analysis of future saltwater intrusion vulnerability responding to spatially variable recharge and sea level rise is provided Recharge drives the extreme cases of saltwater intrusion, while sea level rise is responsible for its global pervasiveness Nearly 77% of global coastal areas below 60° north will undergo saltwater intrusion by 2100