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Rising seas are endangering the habitability and very existence of several small island nations, mostly in the Pacific and Indian oceans. This is the first book to focus on the myriad legal issues posed by this tragic situation: if a nation is under water, is it still a state? Does it still have a seat at the United Nations? What becomes of its exclusive economic zone, the basis for its fishing rights? What obligations do other nations have to take in the displaced populations, and what are these peoples' rights and legal status once they arrive? Should there be a new international agreement on climate-displaced populations? Do these nations and their citizens have any legal recourse for compensation? Are there any courts that will hear their claims, and based on what theories? Leading legal scholars from around the world address these novel questions and propose answers.

Relatively rapid changes in island area, isolation and connectivity observed since the Last Glacial Maximum have had measurable effects on present-day biodiversity, with formerly larger and less well connected islands having a greater number of endemic species. Island diversity since the Last Glacial Maximum Our understanding of biodiversity on islands assumes that either they are the geologically static backgrounds for immigration and emigration, or that they are more dynamic, influenced by geological and tectonic change over millions of years. Neither model, however, accommodates the rapid change over the past 20,000 years or so, during which time the melting of ice caps has driven up sea levels by more than 100 metres, dividing up landmasses, making small islands smaller and more remote. Patrick Weigelt et al . find that such inundations have had a measurable effect on island plant biodiversity. In particular, islands that were larger during the Last Glacial Maximum have more endemic species today than one would expect from their current size and remoteness, whereas the number of native species is essentially the same. Island biogeographical models consider islands either as geologically static with biodiversity resulting from ecologically neutral immigration–extinction dynamics 1 , or as geologically dynamic with biodiversity resulting from immigration–speciation–extinction dynamics influenced by changes in island characteristics over millions of years 2 . Present climate and spatial arrangement of islands, however, are rather exceptional compared to most of the Late Quaternary, which is characterized by recurrent cooler and drier glacial periods. These climatic oscillations over short geological timescales strongly affected sea levels 3 , 4 and caused massive changes in island area, isolation and connectivity 5 , orders of magnitude faster than the geological processes of island formation, subsidence and erosion considered in island theory 2 , 6 . Consequences of these oscillations for present biodiversity remain unassessed 5 , 7 . Here we analyse the effects of present and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) island area, isolation, elevation and climate on key components of angiosperm diversity on islands worldwide. We find that post-LGM changes in island characteristics, especially in area, have left a strong imprint on present diversity of endemic species. Specifically, the number and proportion of endemic species today is significantly higher on islands that were larger during the LGM. Native species richness, in turn, is mostly determined by present island characteristics. We conclude that an appreciation of Late Quaternary environmental change is essential to understand patterns of island endemism and its underlying evolutionary dynamics.

Background Subtropical coral reefs are comparatively understudied compared to tropical coral reef ecosystems, yet also host a diverse and abundant array of marine life and provide substantial socio-economic benefits to communities. Research into the impacts of ocean warming on subtropical coral reefs has increased over the past two decades due to increase frequency and intensity of bleaching and degradation of these ecosystems. Understanding the extent of research effort and type of evidence assessing the response of subtropical corals and reefs to ocean warming provides valuable insight into global patterns in research efforts allowing critical knowledge gaps to be identified. A comprehensive understanding the impact of ocean warming on these systems will underpin our ability to predict and respond to future changes on subtropical coral reefs. Here, a systematic-map approach is used to identify recent research effort, from 2010 to 2023, and highlight patterns in the type, scale, and location of research conducted and as well as identify the availability of data and evidence reported. Methods Primary literature was identified by searching Scopus and Science Citation Index Expanded through Web of Science Core Collection databases. The methodologies provided in a previously published systematic map protocol were applied, and 90 primary research publications were subsequently identified. Data extraction from the identified literature included bibliometric data, discipline and type of research, type of data reported and how it was recorded, and data availability. Findings The identified literature consisted primarily of experimental (49%) and observational (39%) studies. The majority of the primary literature investigated corals in the ecoregions of Southern China (13%), Western Mediterranean (10%) and across a total of seven ecoregions grouped within Oceania (29%). Stressors reported in the literature as drivers of ocean warming reflect the standardisation of methods applied in reporting of events within the literature. Standardised metrics related to degree heating weeks (DHW) and marine heatwaves (MHW) have been reported when assessing the occurrence and severity of drivers, and are increasing in recent years, particularly in Australia. Finally, the need for increased research effort across much of the subtropics is evident, particularly for understudied regions such as the Western Indian Ocean where there are far fewer studies than other similar subtropical coral reef ecosystems. Conclusions Climatic change, increasing ocean temperatures, and the impacts to subtropical and temperate coral reefs are of increasing concern to policy makers and researchers alike. This systematic map provides a broad overview of research topics and effort around the globe since 2010 and identifies areas where more research effort is urgently needed. Our study has identified major research clusters in Asia, Australia, the Mediterranean, and North America and gaps of research in regions such as the East Indian Oceans. Of the research conducted to date approximately one third reports on evidence related to marine protected areas and the vast majority of evidence is from close/territorial sea locations, providing important knowledge base for management of these areas. Of the 17 studies reporting on specific extreme events (rather than experimental studies which is the majority of evidence identified here) 13 have been published since 2019, with the majority reporting on events occurring in 2019/20 indicating a trend of increasing evidence in recent years (a total of 7 studies from 2010 to 2013, compared to over 10 studies published annually since 2019 up to mid-2023).

There is an intense interest in long-term trends of species abundance that may reflect, for example, climate change or conservation actions. Less well studied are patterns in the magnitude of inter-annual variability in abundance across large spatial scales. We collated abundance time-series for 133 nesting sites across the globe of the seven sea turtle species. Inter-annual variability in nest numbers was lowest in loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta), Kemp’s ridley (Lepidochelys kempii) and flatback turtle (Natator depressus) and highest in green turtles (Chelonia mydas), likely reflecting their lower trophic position compared to other species and hence tighter coupling of food availability to environmental conditions each year. The annual number of nests in green turtles could vary by 60-fold between successive years. We identified regional patterns in the magnitude of inter-annual variability in green turtle nest numbers, variability being highest for nesting beaches around Australia and lowest in the western Indian Ocean and equatorial Atlantic. These regional patterns are likely linked to corresponding patterns of environmental variability with, for example, areas subjected environmental extremes as part of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) showing high inter-annual variability in nest numbers.

Coral bleaching due to thermal and environmental stress threatens coral reefs and possibly people who rely on their resources. Here we explore patterns of coral bleaching and mortality in East Africa in 1998 and 2005 in a region where the equatorial current and the island effect of Madagascar interact to create different thermal and physicochemical environments. A variety of temperature statistics were calculated, and their relationships with the degree-heating months (DHM), a good predictor of coral bleaching, determined. Changes in coral cover were analyzed from 29 sites that span >1000 km of coastline from Kenya to the Comoros Islands. Temperature patterns are influenced by the island effect, and there are three main temperature environments based on the rise in temperature over 52 years, measures of temperature variation, and DHM. Offshore sites north of Madagascar that included the Comoros had low temperature rises, low DHM, high standard deviations (SD), and the lowest relative coral mortality. Coastal sites in Kenya had moderate temperature rises, the lowest temperature SD, high DHM, and the highest relative coral mortality. Coastal sites in the south had the highest temperature rises, moderate SD and DHM, and low relative coral mortality. Consequently, the rate of temperature rise was less important than background variation, as reflected by SD and kurtosis measures of sea surface water temperature (SST), in predicting coral survival across 1998. Coral bleaching responses to a warm-water anomaly in 2005 were also negatively related to temperature variation, but positively correlated with the speed of water flow. Separating these effects is difficult; however, both factors will be associated with current environments on the opposite sides of reefs and islands. Reefs in current shadows may represent refugia where corals acclimate and adapt to environmental variation, which better prepares them for rising temperature and anomalies, even though these sites are likely to experience the fastest rates of temperature rise. We suggest that these sites are a conservation priority and should be targeted for management and further ecological research in order to understand acclimation, adaptation, and resilience to climate change.

A major challenge in ecology is to understand the impact of increased environmental variability on populations and ecosystems. To maximize their fitness in a variable environment, life history theory states that individuals should favor a bet-hedging strategy, involving a reduction of annual breeding performance and an increase in adult survival so that reproduction can be attempted over more years. As a result, evolution toward longer life span is expected to reduce the deleterious effects of extra variability on population growth, and consequently on the trait contributing the most to it (e.g., adult survival in long-lived species). To investigate this, we compared the life histories of two Black-browed Albatross ( Thalassarche melanophrys ) populations breeding at South Georgia (Atlantic Ocean) and Kerguelen (Indian Ocean), the former in an environment nearly three times more variable climatically (e.g., in sea surface temperature) than the latter. As predicted, individuals from South Georgia (in the more variable environment) showed significantly higher annual adult survival (0.959, SE = 0.003) but lower annual reproductive success (0.285 chick per pair, SE = 0.039) than birds from Kerguelen (survival = 0.925, SE = 0.004; breeding success = 0.694, SE = 0.027). In both populations, climatic conditions affected the breeding success and the survival of inexperienced breeders, whereas the survival of experienced breeders was unaffected. The strength of the climatic impact on survival of inexperienced breeders was very similar between the two populations, but the effect on breeding success was positively related to environmental variability. These results provide rare and compelling evidence to support bet-hedging underlying changes in life history traits as an adaptive response to environmental variability.