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The atlas of a changing climate : our evolving planet visualized with more than 100 maps, charts, and infographics
The global scale of climate change often feels beyond our comprehension. In The Atlas of a Changing Climate, ecologist Brian Buma helps us envision--both literally and figuratively--the history, present, and possible futures of the imperiled ecosystems directly influencing our lives. By presenting the forces driving Earth's changes through illuminating maps, charts, and infographics, Buma proves the depth of our connectivity to our planet, revealing both the vulnerability--and hope--intrinsic in that link.
BOOK
An update of IPCC climate reference regions for subcontinental analysis of climate model data: definition and aggregated datasets
Several sets of reference regions have been used in the literature for the regional synthesis of observed and modelled climate and climate change information. A popular example is the series of reference regions used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Adaptation (SREX). The SREX regions were slightly modified for the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC and used for reporting subcontinental observed and projected changes over a reduced number (33) of climatologically consistent regions encompassing a representative number of grid boxes. These regions are intended to allow analysis of atmospheric data over broad land or ocean regions and have been used as the basis for several popular spatially aggregated datasets, such as the Seasonal Mean Temperature and Precipitation in IPCC Regions for CMIP5 dataset. We present an updated version of the reference regions for the analysis of new observed and simulated datasets (including CMIP6) which offer an opportunity for refinement due to the higher atmospheric model resolution. As a result, the number of land and ocean regions is increased to 46 and 15, respectively, better representing consistent regional climate features. The paper describes the rationale for the definition of the new regions and analyses their homogeneity. The regions are defined as polygons and are provided as coordinates and a shapefile together with companion R and Python notebooks to illustrate their use in practical problems (e.g. calculating regional averages). We also describe the generation of a new dataset with monthly temperature and precipitation, spatially aggregated in the new regions, currently for CMIP5 and CMIP6, to be extended to other datasets in the future (including observations). The use of these reference regions, dataset and code is illustrated through a worked example using scatter plots to offer guidance on the likely range of future climate change at the scale of the reference regions. The regions, datasets and code (R and Python notebooks) are freely available at the ATLAS GitHub repository: https://github.com/SantanderMetGroup/ATLAS (last access: 24 August 2020), https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3998463 (Iturbide et al., 2020).
Journal Article
Quantifying the range of the dust direct radiative effect due to source mineralogy uncertainty
The large uncertainty in the mineral dust direct radiative effect (DRE) hinders projections of future climate change due to anthropogenic activity. Resolving modeled dust mineral speciation allows for spatially and temporally varying refractive indices consistent with dust aerosol composition. Here, for the first time, we quantify the range in dust DRE at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) due to current uncertainties in the surface soil mineralogical content using a dust mineral-resolving climate model. We propagate observed uncertainties in soil mineral abundances from two soil mineralogy atlases along with the optical properties of each mineral into the DRE and compare the resultant range with other sources of uncertainty across six climate models. The shortwave DRE responds region-specifically to the dust burden depending on the mineral speciation and underlying shortwave surface albedo: positively when the regionally averaged annual surface albedo is larger than 0.28 and negatively otherwise. Among all minerals examined, the shortwave TOA DRE and single scattering albedo at the 0.44–0.63 µm band are most sensitive to the fractional contribution of iron oxides to the total dust composition. The global net (shortwave plus longwave) TOA DRE is estimated to be within −0.23 to +0.35 W/sq. m. Approximately 97 % of this range relates to uncertainty in the soil abundance of iron oxides. Representing iron oxide with solely hematite optical properties leads to an overestimation of shortwave DRE by +0.10 W/sq. m at the TOA, as goethite is not as absorbing as hematite in the shortwave spectrum range. Our study highlights the importance of iron oxides to the shortwave DRE: they have a disproportionally large impact on climate considering their small atmospheric mineral mass fractional burden (∼2 %). An improved description of iron oxides, such as those planned in the Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT), is thus essential for more accurate estimates of the dust DRE.
Journal Article
Changes in regional climate extremes as a function of global mean temperature: an interactive plotting framework
This article extends a previous study Seneviratne et al. (2016) to provide regional analyses of changes in climate extremes as a function of projected changes in global mean temperature. We introduce the DROUGHT-HEAT Regional Climate Atlas, an interactive tool to analyse and display a range of well-established climate extremes and water-cycle indices and their changes as a function of global warming. These projections are based on simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). A selection of example results are presented here, but users can visualize specific indices of interest using the online tool. This implementation enables a direct assessment of regional climate changes associated with global mean temperature targets, such as the 2 and 1.5° limits agreed within the 2015 Paris Agreement.
Journal Article
Mapping groundwater-dependent ecosystems using a high-resolution global groundwater model
Global population growth, economic growth, and climate change have led to a decline in groundwater resources, which are essential for sustaining groundwater-dependent ecosystems (GDEs). To understand their spatial and temporal dependency on groundwater, we developed a framework for mapping GDEs at a large scale, using results from a high-resolution global groundwater model. To evaluate the proposed framework, we focus on the Australian continent because of the abundance of groundwater depth observations and the presence of a GDE atlas. We first classify GDEs into three categories: aquatic (focusing on rivers), wetland (inland wetlands), and terrestrial (phreatophyte) GDEs. We then define a set of rules for identifying these different ecosystems based on, among others, groundwater levels and groundwater discharge. We run the groundwater model in both steady-state and transient mode (period of 1979–2019) and apply the set of rules to map the different types of GDEs using model outputs. For the steady-state mode, we map the presence and absence of GDEs, and we evaluate results against the Australian GDE atlas using a critical success index derived from hit rate, false alarm rate, and missing rate. Results show a hit rate and a critical success index (CSI) above 80 % for each of the three GDE types. From transient runs, we analyse the changes in groundwater dependency between two time periods, 1979–1999 and 1999–2019, and observe a decline in the average number of months that GDEs receive groundwater, pointing at an increasing threat to these ecosystems. The proposed framework and methodology provide a first step towards analysing how global climate change and water use may affect GDE extent and health.
Journal Article
The positive carbon stocks–biodiversity relationship in forests
Carbon storage in forests and its ability to offset global greenhouse gas emissions, as well as biodiversity and its capacity to support ecosystem functions and services, are often considered separately in landscape planning. However, the potential synergies between them are currently poorly understood. Identifying the spatial patterns and factors driving their co-occurrence across different climatic zones is critical to more effectively conserve forest ecosystems at the regional level. Here, we integrated information of National Forest Inventories and Breeding Bird Atlases across Europe and North America (Spain and Quebec, respectively), covering five subclimates (steppe, dry Mediterranean, humid Mediterranean, boreal, and temperate). In particular, this study aimed to (1) determine the spatial patterns of both forest carbon stocks and biodiversity (bird richness, tree richness, and overall biodiversity) and the factors that influence them; (2) establish the relationships between forest carbon stocks and biodiversity; and (3) define and characterize the areas of high (hotspots) and low (coldspots) values of carbon and biodiversity, and ultimately quantify their spatial overlap. Our results show that the factors affecting carbon and biodiversity vary between regions and subclimates. The highest values of carbon and biodiversity were found in northern Spain (humid Mediterranean subclimate) and southern Quebec (temperate subclimate) where there was more carbon as climate conditions were less limiting. High density and structural diversity simultaneously favored carbon stocks, tree, and overall biodiversity, especially in isolated and mountainous areas, often associated with steeper slopes and low accessibility. in addition, the relationship between carbon stocks and biodiversity was positive in both regions and all subclimates, being stronger where climate is a limiting factor for forest growth. The spatial overlap between hotspots of carbon and biodiversity provides an excellent opportunity for landscape planning to maintain carbon stocks and conserve biodiversity. The variables positively affecting carbon and biodiversity were also driving the hotspots of both carbon and biodiversity, emphasizing the viability of “win-win” solutions. Our results highlight the need to jointly determine the spatial patterns of ecosystem services and biodiversity for an effective and sustainable planning of forest landscapes that simultaneously support conservation and mitigate climate change.
Journal Article
Omics resources and omics-enabled approaches for achieving high productivity and improved quality in pea (Pisum sativum L.)
Pea (Pisum sativum L.), a cool-season legume crop grown in more than 85 countries, is the second most important grain legume and one of the major green vegetables in the world. While pea was historically studied as the genetic model leading to the discovery of the laws of genetics, pea research has lagged behind that of other major legumes in the genomics era, due to its large and complex genome. The evolving climate change and growing population have posed grand challenges to the objective of feeding the world, making it essential to invest research efforts to develop multi-omics resources and advanced breeding tools to support fast and continuous development of improved pea varieties. Recently, the pea researchers have achieved key milestones in omics and molecular breeding. The present review provides an overview of the recent important progress including the development of genetic resource databases, high-throughput genotyping assays, reference genome, genes/QTLs responsible for important traits, transcriptomic, proteomic, and phenomic atlases of various tissues under different conditions. These multi-faceted resources have enabled the successful implementation of various markers for monitoring early-generation populations as in marker-assisted backcrossing breeding programs. The emerging new breeding approaches such as CRISPR, speed breeding, and genomic selection are starting to change the paradigm of pea breeding. Collectively, the rich omics resources and omics-enable breeding approaches will enhance genetic gain in pea breeding and accelerate the release of novel pea varieties to meet the elevating demands on productivity and quality.
Journal Article
The Worldwide C3S CORDEX Grand Ensemble
The collaboration between the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) and the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) provides open access to an unprecedented ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) simulations, across the 14 CORDEX continental-scale domains, with global coverage. These simulations have been used as a new line of evidence to assess regional climate projections in the latest contribution of the Working Group I (WGI) to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), particularly in the regional chapters and the Atlas. Here, we present the work done in the framework of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) to assemble a consistent worldwide CORDEX grand ensemble, aligned with the deadlines and activities of IPCC AR6. This work addressed the uneven and heterogeneous availability of CORDEX ESGF data by supporting publication in CORDEX domains with few archived simulations and performing quality control. It also addressed the lack of comprehensive documentation by compiling information from all contributing regional models, allowing for an informed use of data. In addition to presenting the worldwide CORDEX dataset, we assess here its consistency for precipitation and temperature by comparing climate change signals in regions with overlapping CORDEX domains, obtaining overall coincident regional climate change signals. The C3S CORDEX dataset has been used for the assessment of regional climate change in the IPCC AR6 (and for the interactive Atlas) and is available through the Copernicus Climate Data Store (CDS).
Journal Article
Pan-Continental Droughts in North America over the Last Millennium
Regional droughts are common in North America, but pan-continental droughts extending across multiple regions, including the 2012 event, are rare relative to single-region events. Here, the tree-ring-derived North American Drought Atlas is used to investigate drought variability in four regions over the last millennium, focusing on pan-continental droughts. During the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), the central plains (CP), Southwest (SW), and Southeast (SE) regions experienced drier conditions and increased occurrence of droughts and the Northwest (NW) experienced several extended pluvials. Enhanced MCA aridity in the SW and CP manifested as multidecadal megadroughts. Notably, megadroughts in these regions differed in their timing and persistence, suggesting that they represent regional events influenced by local dynamics rather than a unified, continental-scale phenomena. There is no trend in pan-continental drought occurrence, defined as synchronous droughts in three or more regions. SW, CP, and SE (SW+CP+SE) droughts are the most common, occurring in 12% of all years and peaking in prevalence during the twelfth and thirteenth centuries; patterns involving three other regions occur in about 8% of years. Positive values of the Southern Oscillation index (La Niña conditions) are linked to SW, CP, and SE (SW+CP+SE) droughts and SW, CP, and NW (SW+CP+NW) droughts, whereas CP, NW, and SE (CP+NW+SE) droughts are associated with positive values of the Pacific decadal oscillation and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. While relatively rare, pan-continental droughts are present in the paleo record and are linked to defined modes of climate variability, implying the potential for seasonal predictability. Assuming stable drought teleconnections, these events will remain an important feature of future North American hydroclimate, possibly increasing in their severity in step with other expected hydroclimate responses to increased greenhouse gas forcing.
Journal Article